state of play: 07/19/2019

POLITICAL GAME: Zaremba on the advantage of the winning party unconstrained by safeguards, Civic Platform politician on PSL's potential U-turn, Sutowski on negotiations akin to WWI

Łukasz Mężyk

-- MUELLER ON GAZETA POLSKA STICKERS - I WOULDN'T STICK THEM - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/07/19/ -- GRZEGORZ SCHETYNA ON WHAT IS SAID ABOUT THE BACKROOM DEALINGS OF PSL DECISIONS - in an interview with Justyna Dobrosz-Oracz in Gazeta Wyborcza: “Parliamentary corridors are full of various stories about political scenarios being written for the past. Is PSL choosing a coalition with PiS? Such questions are being asked. I don't want to answer them because they don't concern me at all anymore. I want to build Civic Coalition with people, not political parties. There will be members of political parties, there will be Platform, there will be Nowoczesna, there will be Inicjatywa Polska, but there will be many people who are outside of party politics.” -- SCHETYNA ON RETAINING PEOPLE IN THE LABOR MARKET: “We want to keep people in the labor market for as long as possible. We will do everything to make it easier for them, so they can earn more. Work, activity is a treasure. And we must invest in it. People will decide.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,155168,25007212,umiem-wygrywac-grzegorz-schetyna-o-nowym-poczatku-co-sie.html -- TIMMERMANS DIDN'T INVENT THE DISRESPECTFUL MEDDLING WITH JUDICIAL INDEPENDENCE - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN POLSKA THE TIMES: “One can be indignant, and I often am, at PiS's initiatives that help them gain an institutional advantage over the opposition. This applies especially to their disrespectful meddling with judicial independence. Frans Timmermans didn't invent this. However, this doesn't mean that Poles have bought into the vision of a threat of dictatorship.” -- ZAREMBA ON THE CARICATURED VERSION OF DEMOCRACY BASED ON THE DOMINANCE OF THE WINNING PARTY, UNCONSTRAINED BY VARIOUS SAFEGUARDS: “What we have today is rather a caricatured version of democracy based on the dominance of the winning party, which is not constrained by various safeguards. One can and should argue against the excesses of this system. But there are plenty of other topics in Polish politics that have not been overshadowed by this clash of systemic visions. For example, the growing ideological conflict. PSL had increasing difficulty explaining its alliance with supporters of gay marriage, being introduced if not today, then in the future. This is clearly an important issue for people and, contrary to what progressives claim, it does not concern the dispute between 'democracy versus authoritarianism'. Regardless of who is right here, it is a dispute about different legal solutions within democracy. If it were otherwise, the entire West would have been undemocratic for tens, if not hundreds, of years. And this is not true.” -- PSL IS A FORMATION ATTACHED TO POSITIONS; ONLY WHEN PRESSED DID IT BECOME UNCOMPROMISING: “Moreover, even now on PSL's lists, alongside very conservative dissidents from PO like Marek Biernacki, and perhaps even activists from the Kukiz Movement, Jacek Protasiewicz with his liberal-left Union of European Democrats is supposed to be included. This was one of the reasons for the disagreement with Schetyna, who hates this politician. I would not want PSL to disappear, leaving Poland to the mercy of two blocs trying to crush each other. But the populists' slalom is a fact. It is primarily a formation attached to positions and local arrangements. Only when pressed did it become uncompromising.” -- THE ONLY REAL LINE OF DIVISION IS CENTRALISM - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: “If I were to point out a real line of division between the government and the main opposition force, I would find one. PiS wants a centrally managed Poland in the name of greater cohesion in defending the national interest of Poles. Platforma and Nowoczesna have nothing against regionalization, because their priority is faster integration with Europe. This is a real dispute. However, the most will be said about the insane bidding war for increasingly generous handouts. Smaller opposition parties will also join this competition, although they are unlikely to outbid the current Schetyna. One could just ask: where is Professor Leszek Balcerowicz? Why isn't he thundering against this? If he believes this is the way to defeat Kaczyński, he is probably mistaken.” https://polskatimes.pl/piotr-zaremba-klopotem-opozycji-jest-nie-tyle-podzial-ile-nieustanne-przebieranki/ar/c1-14287595 -- TRIPLE OPPOSITION - headline on the front page of Gazeta Wyborcza. -- OPPOSITION, THE ENEMY IS ELSEWHERE - JAROSŁAW KURSKI IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: “It turned out badly, but there is no point in wasting time on mutual accusations and searching for culprits anymore. It would be even worse if the parties of the democratic camp, competing for voters, started a war among themselves now. The enemy is elsewhere. If you cannot go together, at least do not attack each other.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25007594,zle-sie-stalo-ale-nie-ma-sensu-tracic-czasu-na-wzajemne-oskarzenia.html -- ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON PI'S ABSOLUTE ELECTORAL RECORD: “It is actually quite difficult to say who was the main gravedigger of the European Coalition. This broad formula of anti-PiS opposition was supposed to be the first stage in the 2019/2020 electoral triple jump - for the European, parliamentary, and presidential elections. It ended even before it properly began. The coalition decisively lost the European elections to PiS, which achieved over 45% support - an absolute party electoral record since 1989.” -- STANKIEWICZ ON THE DINOSAURS OF SLD: “Of course, this is empty rhetoric intended to hide the fact that after PSL's departure, Schetyna gave SLD the cold shoulder. PO leaders are afraid of a coalition with the post-communist party because Czarzasty intends to rely on SLD dinosaurs like Joanna Senyszyn, Marek Dyduch, Tadeusz Iwiński, or Jerzy Jaskiernia in the elections. This is unacceptable for a significant portion of PO politicians - who, after all, come from anti-communist circles.” -- PLATFORMA IS SENDING SIGNALS TO THE LEFT-WING ELECTORATE - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “Because it is undoubtedly true that by dismissing SLD, Schetyna has his eye on the left-wing electorate. The ruling PiS has occupied the right wing, becoming practically a party of the Church. Now PSL will also compete for conservative votes. Therefore, Schetyna has nothing to look for on this side of the political scene. After the last PO program convention in Warsaw, one can say that the party is sending signals to the left-wing electorate. It not only promises civil partnerships. It often speaks about women's rights, announces the expansion of the in vitro program, and suggests that it will curb the conscience clause, which doctors invoke when refusing abortions in legal situations.” -- IN SCHETYNA'S CIRCLES, THEY BELIEVE IN PSL'S TRANSFORMATION BEFORE LIST REGISTRATION - STANKIEWICZ FURTHER IN ONET: “The divorce of the left from Platform is irreversible. As for PSL, there is still faith in a miracle in Schetyna's circles. – In coalition negotiations, the populists made it their main condition not to take the left on board, meaning SLD and Biedroń. And yet, it is clear that we have sent the left away – notes one of the members of the PO board in an interview with Onet.” -- A FEW BAD POLLS FOR PSL AND THEY CAN MAKE A U-TURN - A PO POLITICIAN IN STANKIEWICZ'S TEXT: “We are counting on significant pressure on Kosiniak-Kamysz from anti-PiS circles, including from within PSL. A few bad polls for the populists and they can make a U-turn. List registration will be in early September. Anything can happen by then – he states.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/wybory-parlamentarne-opozycja-rozpada-sie-na-trzy-czesci-analiza-andrzeja/68pysks -- IT WAS A REACTION FROM THE LEFT - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON THE SZYDŁO AFFAIR: “Firstly, it was an element of the left's reaction (and a breach of agreements) after the EU summit where Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, along with his friends, blocked Frans Timmermans' candidacy, which was extremely detrimental to European unity. It was a great victory for the entire region and the common-sense camp, a reward for years of building V4 unity, a prize for precisely understanding our interests. And ultimately, a punishment for Timmermans - a politician who wanted to build a career on hostility towards Central Europe and who broke his word to Poland that the judicial reform amendment (made in accordance with agreements) would close the case in the European Commission.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/455576-napadli-na-szydlo-bo-nie-zdradzila-polski-i-wiary -- KATARZYNA LUBNAUER ON FIFTH AND LAST PLACES ON THE LISTS FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS - says Agata Szczęśniak in Oko.press: “Certainly, there should be significantly more such people. That is why, as Grzegorz Schetyna declared today, we will allocate 20 percent of the places on the lists to people from outside politics, from outside political parties. The fifth and last places will be filled according to the indications of local government officials.” https://oko.press/schetyna-koniec-koalicji-partyjnej-lubnauer-koalicja-obywateli-to-najlepsza-formula-by-wygrac/ -- MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI ON NEGOTIATIONS LIKE WORLD WAR I: “With these negotiations, it was like World War I – everyone thought they would gain a lot for themselves, that they were risking very little, and in the end, disaster struck and three empires collapsed. -- RAZEM BENEFITED MOST FROM THE NEGOTIATION FAILURE - SUTOWSKI CONTINUES: “Platforma is threatened today that with the PiS government and a constitutional majority, it will remain the 'largest opposition force' with support at the level of twenty-something percent, while PSL is threatened with not crossing the threshold, after which it will be annihilated in the so-called field. SLD also did not get what it wanted most, namely a pool of sure winners on a common list with PO. The Razem party benefited most from the failure of coalition talks, for which a common left-wing bloc is the only chance to get MPs into the Sejm; the fate of Wiosna, on the other hand, is the least certain, as it is unknown whether its activists will choose individual rather than collective strategies, i.e., not try to climb into Schetyna's lifeboat. -- SUTOWSKI ON THE LEFT'S CHANCE: “It's another matter that from the perspective of program distribution and political narratives, the left has been handed on a platter - through no decision of its own - perhaps the best conditions possible. The conservative-populist formation and the liberal center with numerous politicians of the old establishment leave, at least in theory, room for even a dozen-or-so percent social-progressive-ecological option, boldly proclaiming postulates that are still unimaginable to others (progressive taxation, social housing, liberalization of the anti-abortion law, free public transport). 'Anti-PiS' is still an important category for many voters, but PSL's independent start relativizes it. The combined electorates of SLD, Wiosna, and Lewica Razem from May of this year allow for hope of exceeding even the 8 percent threshold. Finally, even greater pluralization of the opposition than before gives a glimmer of hope for weakening the polarization of the conflict and eliminating the zone of crushing that forces outside the duopoly have regularly fallen into recently. That's all the positives.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/duzo-o-nas-bez-nas-czyli-schetyna-ustawia-lewice/ -- ADAM SZOSTKIEWICZ ON THE CONDITIONS FOR OPPOSITION SUCCESS: “Everything indicates the variant of three blocs. Whether and how it will ultimately materialize is still unknown. It is unknown whether the Kamysz-Kukiz coalition will prove to be a greater embarrassment for PSL than the one with the left and PO. It is known that under the D'Hondt system, a slight but still possible opposition victory is possible only on the condition that the populist bloc and the left-wing bloc gain the support of about 15 percent of voters willing to go to the polls in October. -- LET THERE BE THREE BLOCS, BUT THERE COULD BE THE JUDGMENT OF HISTORY - SZOSTKIEWICZ'S CONCLUSION: “Now is not the time for reckoning, who is responsible for the failure of the common list. Nor for defeatism. Since there are to be three blocs, let them be. Let Schetyna, Kosiniak-Kamysz, Czarzasty, Biedroń 'count' themselves again and stand to fight in new armor and under new banners. Let them prove to the democratic electorates that they have chosen a better path to defend constitutional democracy and civil rights. If they prove it, glory; if not - the judgment of history, because these elections are historic.” https://szostkiewicz.blog.polityka.pl/2019/07/18/opozycyjny-gen-samozaglady/ -- GAWŁOWSKI'S CASE WILL RETURN WITH A BANG - ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ IN GAZETA.PL: “Our interviewee adds, however, that when the Civic Coalition targets the left or especially PSL, it will itself become the main target for PiS. The hunter will become the prey. - Soon, the Gawłowski and Neumann cases will return with a bang. Of course, friendly media will save Platforma, writing about political trials commissioned by Ziobro, but I know both of these cases well, it will be an artillery barrage like from the battleship Schleswig-Holstein - states our source.” -- THEY PUT US IN THE CENTER THEMSELVES - A PO POLITICIAN IN ROGOJSZ'S TEXT: “One of the PO MPs we spoke to points out that the reactions of both Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and Włodzimierz Czarzasty after Platforma's decision put Schetyna's party in a good starting position before the campaign. - PSL says we are too left-wing, and SLD says we have gone too far to the right. They themselves have placed us where we wanted to be - perfectly in the center. This is a good place to expand in the campaign - we hear.” -- ROGOJSZ ON THE REBELLION IN PO: “According to Gazeta.pl information, there is already a group of dissatisfied activists and politicians in PO who want to challenge Schetyna after the autumn elections. One of the MPs is leading them. - If Schetyna doesn't extinguish them now, they will grow in strength after losing the elections and find many allies - assesses our informant. A former Platform politician says: - Schetyna is already thinking about re-election, and that is his top priority. He will subordinate the campaign to this. He loves power, he loves leading the party. This is a goal in itself for him. If he has to choose between the fate of the opposition and power in Platform, he will choose power in Platform.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,25007129,bratobojcza-walka-w-opozycji-zgnieciemy-psl-i-lewice-to-przykre.html -- THE LEFT CAN BE THE BENEFICIARY - JAKUB BODZIONY IN KULTURALIBERALNA: “PSL's indecision and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz's U-turn have pushed Grzegorz Schetyna to run independently in the parliamentary elections. The biggest beneficiary of the opposition arrangements could turn out to be... the left. -- THIS IS A BIG CHANCE FOR THE LEFT - BODZIONY CONTINUES: “Despite this, the lack of agreement between PSL and PO is a big chance for the left. Especially since the list of common postulates is practically ready: environmental protection, progressive tax reform, improving the quality of public services (healthcare, education, housing), and the real separation of state and church. Party leaders just need to curb their egos, put mutual animosities in their pockets, reach a final agreement, and... finally start the campaign.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/07/19/lewica-razem-wiosna-sld-schetyna-bodziony-komentarz/ -- THIS IS ALSO A FAILURE FOR TUSK - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: “The effect of all Donald Tusk's recent efforts (on the domestic front) has been meager. The European Coalition, supported by him, not only lost the elections, not only failed to put up even an equal fight with PiS, but it has fallen apart with spectacular fireworks displays and mutual recriminations (we will probably have to wait a few hours, perhaps days, for more such stories). What's more, Tusk himself has dropped in the trust rankings - and this in an IBRiS poll - behind Jarosław Kaczyński. -- TUSK NO LONGER HAS POWER - FIJOŁEK'S CONCLUSION: “Something has changed very clearly in Polish politics in recent years, which resulted in the outcomes of the May elections being as they were. Three (and perhaps more) blocs on the opposition side are evidence of at least a few theses. However, let's remember the two main ones: almost no one on the opposition side believes in fairy tales about the end of democracy (otherwise they would have come to an agreement), and Donald Tusk has practically no power of action (or perhaps it is even counterproductive). These are interesting times.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/455630-rozbicie-opozycji-to-kleska-nie-tylko-schetyny-ale-i-tuska -- BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR GREATER CLARITY OF THREE LISTS: “So, Schetyna's Civic Coalition and PSL remain, supported by a few representatives of the liberal wing of Platforma. Does such an opposition facing the monolith of the right have a chance? Its chance lies in the fact that the three opposition formations (right - center - left), thanks to their distinctness, can sharpen their programs and electoral rhetoric. A common coalition gives a bonus for unity, but forces a dulling of slogans. And such political amorphousness is unable to ignite political emotions, ergo to engage a wider electorate. -- THE INITIATIVE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS - IN CHRABOTA'S OPINION - CAN TIP THE SCALES: “The initiative of Frankiewicz, Truskolaski, and Dulkiewicz can truly tip the scales. Although let's remember that local government officials will also support the other side. The 'Non-Party Local Government Officials' initiative, which expects 10 percent of the votes, is already waiting at the starting gate to support the winners. Paradoxically, whoever mobilizes broader circles of citizens not identifying with parties will win. This is the essence of the autumn confrontation, the stake of which is the format of Polish politics for decades to come.” http://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1407987-Nie-partie-ale-obywatele.html -- JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ ABOUT THE OPPOSITION AS A PiS WUNDERWAFFE: “Even if the populists and the left gain, it will mainly be at the expense of PO. 'Schetyna's Six' did not turn out to be as electrifying a program as 500+ or 'Kaczyński's Five'. Further scandals surrounding PiS and attacks on the government further solidify the ruling party's position. The president has still not announced the election date, and a short election campaign may only favor PiS. The opposition needs new, high-octane fuel after the holidays so as not to reach the finish line with a good result again, but as second. It is unknown what that might be. One thing is certain today: with its decisions, the opposition is fighting for PiS's constitutional majority. And this is the only 'success' it can achieve in the autumn.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/307189881-Nizinkiewicz-Opozycja-niczym-wunderwaffe-Prawa-i-Sprawiedliwosci.html -- MONIKA OLEJNIK ON PiS, RAINBOWS, AND URSULA: “Jarosław Kaczyński said at a family picnic that Poland should be under a white and red flag, not a rainbow. But as it turns out, the heavens have opened for the rainbow, because as Zbigniew Kuźmiuk says, von der Leyen was in some sense a candidate of the Polish government.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25007649,uchylone-niebo-dla-teczy-za-jakimi-wartosciami-naprawde-jest.html -- PIOTR ZAREMBA ON FACEBOOK ABOUT GAZETA POLSKA STICKERS - IT'S PLAYING WITH HATRED: “I am against the most important postulate of the gay movement: granting their unions the status of marriage. This leads to the adoption of children. If someone doesn't understand why a child should not be a tool to satisfy the 'right to happiness' of adults, then I'm sorry - they have a perception problem. However, I absolutely do not understand what the purpose of distributing stickers that Paweł Lisicki admires is. He talks about a 'zone free from LGBT ideology'. But the word 'ideology' is not there. Some claim that this abbreviation is identical to a political movement, not to people of this orientation. I am not sure if for many it is not identical to people. But, even if, how do the authors imagine 'freedom from ideology'? Its elimination? By what methods in a free society? One can not meet its postulates, but how to annihilate it? The associations are unpleasant, and although the stories of liberal friends about new Nazism are conscious exaggeration, everyone is responsible for the associations they evoke, if they themselves resort to aggression and exaggeration. I saw comments on Facebook under the statement of Archbishop Gądecki reminding that gays and lesbians are our brothers and sisters. For a Christian, this is obvious. For the people writing under the post, people of different orientations are 'messengers of Satan', and the archbishop himself is not much better than them. He who sows the wind reaps the storm. For the record - some participants in equality parades also sow it - with contempt for Catholicism and vulgarity. I do not sense in their statements even attempts to understand more traditional positions, although quite recently they were the subject of consensus. But - I repeat - playing with these stickers is playing with hatred. I am surprised by the editor-in-chief of 'Do Rzeczy'. And I will ask tactlessly, what if someone decides to establish a 'zone free from divorcees'?” https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100011509202636 -- BIRTHDAYS: Anna Knysok, Maciej Grabowski, Radomir Wit, Stanisław Piotrowicz.

Łukasz Mężyk