state of play: 07/17/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Karnowski: The Current Team Recognized as a Legitimate Player, Flis: Three Lists Would Need Over 50%, GW: PiS Tactic: We Are a Dove of Peace

Łukasz Mężyk

-- WILL THE CLEAN AIR PROGRAM BE TAKEN FROM KOWALCZYK? - DGP: "Over 300 municipalities will help implement the government's anti-smog program – DGP has learned. There are also voices about taking the program away from the Minister of Environment".
https://forsal.pl/artykuly/1422181,targi-o-czyste-powietrze-program-zostanie-odebrany-kowalczykowi.html


-- WE ARE A DOVE OF PEACE - JUSTYNA DOBROSZ-ORACZ IN GW ON PiS TACTICS: “MPs are to be careful what they say and write. Anyone who comes out with a statement that could harm PiS even slightly in the elections will not be on the lists or will be removed from them. Such instructions have come to PiS politicians from the very top, the party headquarters at Nowogrodzka Street in Warsaw – 'Wyborcza' has learned. The politics of love is also to concern interpersonal relations – with the opposition, and even with media critical of the ruling camp.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,25000433,pis-golabkiem-pokoju-czyli-nowa-doktryna-kaczynskiego-kto.html

-- 300LIVE: BREJZA APPEALS TO PSL TO CHANGE ADVISORS, KOSINIAK ON FIGHTING FOR 8-10%, SASIN ON PAWŁOWICZ IN THE TRIBUNAL OF JUSTICE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/07/17/

-- SILESIAN LEFT IN RUINS, 3 ORGANIZATIONS DISSOLVED, BALT HEADS THEM - front page of Dziennik Zachodni.

-- HEAD OF CSK EXPELLED FROM PiS - FRONT PAGE OF KURIER LUBELSKI: https://www.egazety.pl/polska-press/e-wydanie-polska-kurier-lubelski.html

-- THREE LISTS WOULD NEED 50% - PROF. FLIS COMMENTS ON THE POLL FOR RZ: “– Three lists, to compete with PiS in mandates, would have to get over 50 percent of the votes – analyzes Prof. Flis. – And if there are only two, 46.5 percent is enough. This is due to the D’Hondt method. PiS consistently achieves stable support of 42–43 percent in every scenario.”

-- ACCORDING TO FLIS, IN ONE SCENARIO THE OPPOSITION WINS BY ONE MANDATE: “Most importantly, the opposition could then gain a majority in the Sejm, winning, according to Prof. Flis's calculations, one more mandate collectively than PiS. Such an arrangement would complicate PiS's prospects of maintaining power the most and eliminate the premium it gains from the D’Hondt electoral system.”

-- VARIANT OF TWO COALITIONS: CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC AND LEFT-WING GIVES PiS A SLIGHT ADVANTAGE - DĄBROWSKA FURTHER DESCRIBES THE POLL FOR RZ (ALE IBRIS): “The third variant examined by IBRiS involves two coalitions: Christian Democratic: PO–PSL–N, and Left-wing: SLD–Wiosna–Lewica Razem. This arrangement brings balance, and perhaps a post-election stalemate. PiS receives its 43.2 percent in this scenario, the political center gets 31.3 percent, and the joint broad left-wing list gets 12.3 percent. This means the opposition collectively gathers 43.6 percent compared to PiS's over 43 percent. However, translating this into mandates again gives PiS the majority, which receives 239 seats and can continue to rule. – The fact that there are two lists, more balanced, gives PiS nine more mandates – indicates Prof. Flis. It is worth noting that in this arrangement, the left-wing does not have to worry about crossing the electoral threshold, even a coalition one – i.e., 8 percent.”
https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-parlamentarne-2019/307169905-Sondaz-Im-wiecej-list-tym-mniejsze-szanse-opozycji.html

-- PROMISING TALKS - CEZARY PRZYBYLSKI ON RUNNING WITH KUKIZ - states RZ: “We have decided that we want to run for parliament as BS on a separate list, possibly with groups that are not parties. Talks are underway with Kukiz’15, and they are promising. It’s possible we will join forces.”
https://www.rp.pl/Kraj/307169931-Cezary-Przybylski-Interesuje-nas-minimum-10-proc.html

-- TUSK DIDN'T LIFT A FINGER TO REALIZE HIS ENERGY UNION POSTULATE, BUT HE ALSO ACHIEVED SUCCESSES - MAINTAINING SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA - PAWEŁ MUSIAŁEK ON THE KLUBU JAGIELLOŃSKIEGO PORTAL: “Donald Tusk is ending his term as President of the European Council. His five-year term was not a string of successes. Tusk's biggest failures as head of the European Council? The energy union, Brexit, relations with the US. Of course, Tusk also achieved successes. He maintained EU unity in the face of crises and ensured the continuation of sanctions against Russia. The approaching end of Donald Tusk's term as President of the European Council is a time for summing up. His five-year term was not a string of successes. The energy union was one of the main postulates Donald Tusk put forward when running for the head of the Council. This idea was to guarantee greater European solidarity in terms of energy security. Unfortunately, once Tusk was elected, he didn't lift a finger to realize this postulate. The most spectacular effect of this failure was the consistent implementation of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.”
https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2019/07/16/musialek-donald-tusk-koniec-europejskiej-kariery-video/

-- JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ ON THE POSITION OF COUNCIL PRESIDENT - APPARENT HONORS: “In 2014, Donald Tusk triumphed, but it quickly turned out that his departure from Warsaw opened up power for PiS for years, and the benefits for Poland from taking the position of President of the European Council are not very visible. The fact that a Pole's place will be taken by a Belgian prime minister on his way out, Charles Michel, and a second politician from that country among the three who have held this position, shows the real significance of the role played by Tusk. This is therefore a certain process of Poland maturing within the Union: the ability to distinguish between apparent honors and attempts to influence the real development of the Community in a way that best suits us.”
https://www.rp.pl/Unia-Europejska/307169932-Jedrzej-Bielecki-Von-der-Leyen-obroni-najwazniejsze-polskie-interesy-w-Unii.html

-- SHE WOULDN'T WIN WITHOUT PiS SUPPORT - TOMASZ BIELECKI IN GW.
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,25000723,ursula-von-der-leyen-szefowa-komisji-europejskiej.html

-- ANDRZEJ GAJCY ON VON DER LEYEN'S GRATITUDE - writes in Onet: “Certainly, PiS will now count on the gratitude of the new President of the European Commission. Presumably, in behind-the-scenes talks, specific promises were made to the Polish government and the name of the new Polish commissioner. Will it be the former prime minister Beata Szydło, twice 'dragged through the mud' by the European Parliament, which rejected her candidacy for the head of one of the important parliamentary committees? This is probably one of the scenarios, but the most important thing seems to be that PiS, from a position of isolation and 'persona non grata,' may, with von der Leyen's gratitude, enter the European salons. At least it has grounds for this.”

-- A BONUS FOR YEARS OF CONSISTENCY AND RESISTANCE TO PRESSURE - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Overall, PiS has entered the big game, and from a subject position. Who knows if this doesn't herald a longer and wider process, which can be called collecting bonuses for years of consistency, for years of resistance to pressure, and finally for effectiveness in domestic policy.”

-- STANDING WITH EKR, NOT WITH SALVINI'S CAMP, PAID OFF - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “PiS's continued adherence to the EKR formula, i.e., on reformist but clearly pro-European positions, has paid off. If the calls from Salvini to build a new faction had been heeded, this game would not have happened, if only because the Italians would have been number one there.”

-- THE CURRENT TEAM IS RECOGNIZED AS A LEGITIMATE PLAYER - JACEK KARNOWSKI'S CONCLUSION: “As a result of this operation, Poland can gain specifics: an important portfolio in the European Commission, compensation for wrongs related to the rejection of Beata Szydło's candidacy for the head of a committee in the EP, and a renunciation of aggressiveness in the area of so-called rule of law. It can also gain something even more valuable: recognition of the current team as a legitimate player on the European stage, at least from the mainstream Christian Democrats.”
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/455347-pis-weszlo-do-duzej-gry-w-unii-i-to-z-pozycji-podmiotowych

-- IT COULD HAVE BEEN DIFFERENT, BUT PiS'S REVOLUTIONARY GENE IS STRONGER THAN THE CONSERVATIVE GENE - ŁUKASZ WARZECHA IN RZ: “Could things have been done differently after 2015? Of course, they could have. PiS could have chosen a more difficult, painstaking, truly conservative path of rebuilding institutions – because it's not the case that only the current governments have destroyed, for example, the authority of the Constitutional Tribunal. It was already in a bad state before. However, PiS, instead of undergoing treatment, administered a lethal injection. Perhaps the deepest reason lies in the fact that in the ruling party itself, in its very hard core, the revolutionary gene resides, not the conservative one. And revolutions always end badly.”

-- WARZECHA CONSIDERS PiS'S ABANDONMENT OF THE MITIGATING ROLE OF INSTITUTIONS A MISTAKE: “Why such a choice of strategy? There can be several reasons – including the conviction that there is so little time that one must act outside the institutional order to introduce changes in the state that can no longer be reversed. Only that there is a paradox in this reasoning: if the mitigating role of institutions is abandoned, changes can indeed be introduced faster, but they are also ephemeral. Precisely because they lack institutional grounding. Successors will gladly take advantage of the situation created by PiS. The state loses its fundamentally conservative institutional anchor. It enters dangerous drift, like an unanchored ship during a storm.”
https://www.rp.pl/Kraj/307169933-PiS-zamiast-krucjaty-wbil-mizerykordie.html

-- MACIEREWICZ GETS A GOOD RESULT, REPORT OF THE COMMISSION ON THE 10TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE CATASTROPHE - JACEK GĄDEK ON GAZETA.PL ABOUT MACIEREWICZ: “Antoni Macierewicz will be the PiS's 'number one' in his traditional constituency. – Because another place would be a humiliation for him, and he always gets a good result – we hear from a PiS politician. And what about the final report of the Smolensk Subcommittee? Within the party, it is said that it will likely be ready after the elections – on the 10th anniversary of the catastrophe. In the ruling camp, it is said – based on Macierewicz's vague declarations – that the final report will be ready for the 10th anniversary of the Smolensk catastrophe, i.e., April 10, 2020. – Macierewicz says he's finishing something, so the 10th anniversary is probable. But I wouldn't get too attached to any declaration – we hear from a PiS politician.”
http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24998281,macierewicz-z-jedynka-bo-wykreca-dobry-wynik-jego-raport.html

-- IT WILL BE ALRIGHT - PSL POLITICIAN IN THE ARTICLE BY GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK IN DGP: “PSL is going to the elections without PO – the leader's declarations are unambiguous. This could be one of the turning points of the campaign. The People's Party's independent run leaves the opposition with two options. The less likely one, i.e., a PO-left coalition, and the most realistic division of anti-PiS forces into three blocs: PSL, PO, and the left. How will the duel with the united PiS army end? 'We won't lack sabers, the nobility will mount their horses, I with my nephew at the head and – it will be alright!' – replies one of the PSL politicians, quoting from 'Pan Tadeusz'.”
https://edgp.gazetaprawna.pl/e-wydanie/56851,17-lipca-2019/69213,Dziennik-Gazeta-Prawna/699608,Gra-va-banque-ludowcow.html

-- SENTIMENTAL REFLECTIONS FROM WKK IN THE ARTICLE BY ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ: “I'll go back to medicine, I'll think about my habilitation, and finally rest, because I haven't had a vacation, holidays, or even a free weekend in eight years. The PSL leader quickly adds: – But I don't accept the idea that this could be the end. I've been connected with the PSL my whole life, I grew up in this party, I matured in it, I spent my entire adult life in it. If we don't get into the Sejm, it would be a personal tragedy for me and my family.”

-- WE WOULD SHARE THE FATE OF NOWOCZESNA - ROGOJSZ QUOTES PSL POLITICIANS: “Everyone in both Civic Platform and PSL knows Schetyna's goal. He wants to be the hegemon in the opposition. And to be so, he must ultimately get rid of or subordinate PSL and SLD – argues one of the PSL MPs. A politician from the party's top leadership adds: If we had gone to the elections with Civic Platform, in the next term we would have shared the fate of Nowoczesna. I have no illusions about that.”
http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24998805,samodzielny-start-psl-czyli-zagranie-va-banque-ludowcow-gdybysmy.html

-- TIME OF SCHOOL APOCALYPSE - title on the front page of GW.

-- SUCH A MESS THAT WE MISS GYMNASIUMS - POLL FOR DGP, BUT IBRIS: “Four years ago, in an IBRiS poll, almost 70 percent of Poles supported the liquidation of gymnasiums. Today, the percentage of supporters of the reform is only 40 percent of respondents – according to an IBRiS poll for 'DGP' and RMF FM. Comparing these two polls, it is hard not to notice a significant increase in opponents of the reform – four years ago it was 26.4 percent, now 51.1 percent. Could this mean trouble for PiS in the elections?”
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/reforma-edukacji-sondaz-ibris-dla-dgp-i-rmf-fm/cpjt4eg

-- HIGH SCHOOL OF LOST DREAMS - FRONT PAGE OF RZ: “This year, only outstanding students could count on admission to the best high schools. Those with average grades had no chance.”
https://www.rp.pl/Edukacja/307169929-LO-straconych-marzen.html

-- MAREK KOZUBAL ON THE SITUATION IN SCHOOLS - writes in RZ: “Some time ago, in a satirical program, the following dialogue could be heard. – Who is responsible for education? – The local governments. – Who will bear all the odium for the reform? – The local governments? – Who governs the local governments? – They do. – Who will win the elections? – We – in my opinion, it's worth adding a question mark here.”
https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/307169941-Kozubal-Oswiatowy-balagan.html

-- ŁUKASZ WARZECHA SEES POSITIVE ELEMENTS IN THE EDUCATION SITUATION AFTER ALL: “There is a lot of truth in this, and it's worth thinking about these words to see some positive in this situation. However – as was said at the beginning – the problem is that we are not dealing with a thoughtful reversal of the trend towards leveling down and a planned restoration of high schools to a status even remotely resembling that of the Second Polish Republic, when they were generally elite schools – but simply with an accident at work.”
https://opinie.wp.pl/lukasz-warzecha-chaos-w-szkolach-moze-im-pomoc-odsieje-sredniakow-opinia-6403201569810049a

-- SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI BITTERLY ABOUT VEGA: “I am not eagerly awaiting Patryk Vega's 'Polityka.' Not because I have a formed opinion about this director. I have the best impression of the first part of 'Pitbull' and the series made for TVP. And what came later, I don't consider complete rubbish, like some of my friends. The effect is that the more the director announces that his film is supposed to be more than just a film, the more it's clear that he's only interested in the film, not politics. Vega will achieve what he wants anyway. He already has the money, now he can also have a medal for courage. He risks nothing because, as he emphasizes himself, he doesn't need PISF for his film productions, as he makes them in such a way that viewers flock to cinemas by the millions.”

-- HOW TO STEAL GAJOS AND HIRE HIM IN PiS - SIERAKOWSKI CONTINUES: “The authorities have just found an answer. A whole suite of outstanding artists took part in a film about the Amber Gold scandal, distributed by TVP. It is to be edited into promotional spots that will become part of the Law and Justice electoral campaign. The film features the biggest stars who criticize the government daily: Janusz Gajos (even if he's not at the forefront of protests, he's visible there after 'Kler'), Andrzej Seweryn, and Olgierd Łukaszewicz, who is conducting a private mission to overthrow the regime, and additionally Maciej Maleńczuk. Donald Tusk and Lech Wałęsa are still missing in cameo roles. The film is to be called Solid Gold. The director and screenwriter is Jacek Bromski. The film connects with the Amber Gold scandal through its setting, namely the Tricity, airlines, and Solid Gold bank.”
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/sierakowski-vega-kontra-kurski-czyli-kino-moralnego-niepokoju-na-miare-epoki-opinia/rvt5g2w

-- GRAND COALITION OR DEATH - AGATA CZARNACKA IN KRYTYKA: "All opposition parties going to the elections separately may result in only Civic Platform entering the Sejm, and the wasted votes, i.e., cast for parties that do not cross the electoral threshold, will go almost entirely to PiS's account, translating into mandates giving Law and Justice a constitutional majority. This is why agreeing on a coalition program is not the most important thing today, and the opposition parties must run from a single list. Already in the previous term, my vote for the left was converted into a mandate for a PiS politician. I am not sure if I can withstand another four years of this situation."
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/koalicja-albo-pis/

-- MAGDALENA ŚRODA REMEMBERS LESZEK KOŁAKOWSKI IN GW ON THE 10TH ANNIVERSARY OF HIS DEATH: “Few believers treated Jesus with such seriousness as he did. Leszek Kołakowski died 10 years ago. Many years ago, while we were eating pork knuckle in jelly in the former military canteen next to the Institute of Philosophy in Warsaw, he said irritably: 'Stop calling me 'Mr. Professor' all the time!' 'And what should I call you?' – I asked. 'Master!' – he joked.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,25000726,niewielu-wierzacych-traktowalo-jezusa-z-taka-powaga-jak-on.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Angela Merkel turns 65, Stanisław Tym turns 82.

Łukasz Mężyk