state of play: 07/09/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Zaremba Throws Hands Up at "Eco-PO" in the Capital, Majmurek: Kaczyński Didn't Need a New 'Five' to Show Strength, Śpiewak: Who Prepares Young People for Politics? PiS, Bierzyński: Let PiS Rule in a Time of Crisis

Łukasz Mężyk

-- KOSINIAK ON THE COALITION DEADLINE, A MODERN POLAND POLITICIAN WANTS A HIGHER PENSION AGE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/07/09 -- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI: DOES THE ROLE OF THE SECULAR APOSTOLATE TRULY CONSIST OF WRITING ABOUT THE DEATH THAT SHOULD BEFALL HOMOSEXUALS? - Writes in RZ: “Where is the love in the bishop's letter, where is the love in Mr. Tomasz's post?” asks one of the priests we spoke to. “Jesus suffered for all people, including LGBT people,” reminds another. Yet another, with whom I speak, points out that in Bishop Dec's letter, the Church appears as a besieged fortress attacked from all sides. “Does the role of the secular apostolate in a democratic and pluralistic society really consist of writing about the death that should befall homosexuals?” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/307089913-Szuldrzynski-Tylko-pol-prawdy-w-liscie-biskupa.html -- THE NEXT INSTALLMENT IN THE STORY TITLED "A VERY ECOLOGICAL PLATFORM" - PIOTR ZAREMBA ON FB ABOUT A GW TEXT. -- NO GREEN AORTA AROUND PKIN, THE CITY HALL HAS QUIETLY KILLED THE INVESTMENT - MICHAŁ WOJTCZUK IN GW: “No representative garden between Aleje Jerozolimskie and the Palace of Culture. A year after the competition was decided, the city hall has quietly killed the investment, shifting the blame onto the railwaymen.” http://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,24972759,nie-bedzie-zielonej-aorty-obok-palacu-kultury-ratusz-po-cichu.html -- WILL PIS EXHAUST ITSELF TO WIN A MAJORITY AND PREVENT THE RECURRENCE OF A SHODDY POLAND? - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “But PiS is no longer playing for a simple retention of power, certainly not just for that. Power was at stake in 2015. Today, it is clear that Jarosław Kaczyński's party has a chance for something more. It's a chance for a majority that will allow for a real rebuilding of Poland's foundations. This chance is visible in the polls, in the results of the May elections, and in the general atmosphere that is clearly palpable. (...) In other words: will the ruling party be able to win in such a way as to prevent the recurrence of a shoddy Poland – or perhaps even more shoddy – for at least a decade? It has a chance, and it shouldn't waste it. The evil Jarosław Kaczyński spoke of is real. It's knocking on our door. We have to give it our all. We have to take risks. We have to look for opportunities in bold, daring, innovative ideas. We cannot sleep. This is the only way to seize historical opportunities that WILL NEVER COME AGAIN.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/454272-czy-pis-wypruje-sobie-zyly-i-wykorzysta-szanse-na-cos-extra -- KACZYŃSKI DIDN'T NEED A NEW 'FIVE' TO SHOW STRENGTH - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN WP: “The leaders of the ruling camp presented not a single new concrete, no new Kaczyński 'five,' or a social program with a plus, over the weekend. According to media reports, such proposals are not expected until the end of August – PiS does not want to bore Poles on vacation with details now. However, no specifics needed to be announced for Law and Justice, against the backdrop of a divided, chaotic, and primarily self-absorbed opposition, to present itself as a serious, professional party steadily moving towards a second term. -- MAJMUREK IN WP ON PIS PLAYING ON DIFFERENT PIANOS IN KATOWICE: “PiS's professionalism was evident in how skillfully the party played on different pianos at the convention, catering to different electorates. On one hand, they took care of the hardliners. The leader of Solidary Poland, Zbigniew Ziobro, primarily addressed their emotional needs. He delivered a speech targeting judges, accusing them of feeling like a special caste. In his philippic against the third branch of government, he wove in unaddressed judicial crimes from the PRL era, and even the case of Judge Stefan Michnik, who adjudicated during the Stalinist period.” -- THE DOMINANT MESSAGE WAS NOT IDENTITY-RIGHT-WING BUT MODERNIZING - MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “The dominant message of the Katowice event was not identity-right-wing, but modernizing. Kaczyński spoke of development and securing funds for it. Prime Minister Morawiecki promised to catch up with France in a dozen or so years and highlighted five areas of the state that would receive state investment. Alongside large infrastructure projects, these included healthcare and education. Instead of further social transfers, PiS is now promising to fix two critical areas that no government since '89 has managed to raise to a level meeting Poles' aspirations.” -- AGAINST THE BACKDROP OF THE EFFICIENT PIS ARMY, THE OPPOSITION IS LIKE A DISORDERED PEOPLE'S MILITIA - MAJMUREK'S CONCLUSION: “However, PiS's offer is strong due to the opposition's weakness. On the same weekend, the only message from the opposition concerned not a program, or even substantive criticism of the government, but who the PSL wanted to run with and who the left wanted to run with. As Kaczyński accurately noted on Sunday, a great strength of PiS is also that it is perceived as the only force in Poland today that fulfills its promises and agreements with its electorate. Against the backdrop of the efficient PiS army, the opposition currently looks like a disheveled people's militia. As we know from history, chaotic units, not particularly capable of maintaining formation, limiting their tactics to the slogan "all together, gentlemen," fare poorly.” https://opinie.wp.pl/majmurek-kaczynski-nie-potrzebowal-nowej-piatki-by-pokazac-sile-opinia-6400251930990721a -- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON PIS, ECOLOGY, AND GENERATING DYNAMICS IN CITIES: “This entire process is calculated for a long march, without a guaranteed electoral outcome (and certainly not immediate). What's more, for Law and Justice, these are still uncharted territories – until recently, the party and government leadership was not particularly convinced about focusing on issues related to air purity or ecology in a broad sense; political effects were meant to be convincing. One of the highest-ranking government politicians said openly in informal meetings that cities could be written off because there is a clear boundary here, which neither the current focus on ecology nor any tax breaks will change. And it's clear that a campaign cannot be built solely on these issues – neither the upcoming one nor likely the next. PiS's base and the foundation of the current rulers' power lie elsewhere. Nevertheless, just as metropolitan and small-town areas cannot be won over with a snap of the fingers, it is certainly possible to generate some positive political momentum. What is at the end of this process? That's perhaps the most interesting question, which cannot be answered today.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/454171-jeszcze-jeden-sufit-do-przebicia-dla-pis-i-centroprawicy -- THE PLATFORM WANTS SLD, DOESN'T WANT BIEDROŃ - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “Ahead of Tuesday's talks between Schetyna and Czarzasty, everything indicates that Civic Platform intends to maintain cooperation with SLD, but does not see Robert Biedroń's Spring in the ranks of the opposition coalition.” -- SPRING IS A BANKRUPT ENTITY - A PO POLITICIAN IN WROŃSKI'S ARTICLE: “However, Platform does not want to include Robert Biedroń's Spring in the coalition, which paradoxically would fulfill PSL's demand from a week ago. – After Biedroń's departure to Brussels, it's just a bankrupt entity – points out a PO politician. Others recall that Biedroń was invited to the European Coalition many times, but during the election campaign, he made PO his main opponent, and in the end, he broke down the wall that consisted of PO and PiS. However, it is not excluded that individual Spring activists will be on the joint lists.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24975312,platforma-wybiera-sld-tak-wiosna-nie-psl-jak-chce.html -- JACEK ŻAKOWSKI BELIEVES PIS IS MANIPULATING THE ELECTION DATE BECAUSE IT FEARS A "BLACK SWAN" - THE CJEU RULING - as he writes in WP: “So, the cards in Polish politics are dealt for a few more years, but the rustling of wings of a 'black swan' called the CJEU, which could change a lot, can be heard in the air. In this sense – contrary to what the Prime Minister perhaps thinks – the date of this year's elections is not a joke. And the President certainly understands this. Because the date of the final verdict remains unknown. The President – unlike the Prime Minister – knows that (as Sobczyk sang): 'Anything can happen on the thirteenth,' although the Prime Minister seems to believe more in the continuation of the old song: 'On the thirteenth, the world is in pink. / On the thirteenth, tears don't sadden me. / On the thirteenth, I have more beautiful dreams.'” https://opinie.wp.pl/zakowski-dlaczego-trzynastego-wszystko-zdarzyc-sie-moze-opinia-6400368746342529a -- PIOTR PACEWICZ CALCULATED KANTAR POLLS FOR PLATFORM IN TERMS OF SEATS - IN THE VARIANT OF A COALITION WITHOUT SPRING, THE OPPOSITION LACKS 15 VOTES TO GOVERN, AND PIS NEEDS KUKIZ: “In the scenario of a grand anti-PiS coalition, the seat distribution looks like this: PiS – 214; Coalition – 196; Kukiz’15 – 26; Spring – 15; Freedom – 9. To form a government, PiS would have to ally with Kukiz’15. The democratic forces (Coalition + Spring) together have 215 votes, falling short of the 15 seats needed to govern.” -- PACEWICZ ON POLLING FOR PSL, WHICH INDICATES 8% FOR THE CENTRIST LUDOWY BLOCK: “According to unofficial information from OKO.press, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz's PSL party is also ordering its own polls, reportedly with IBRiS. In these polls, PSL is testing the potential of a 'Christian democratic coalition' that it would form with the Non-Party Local Government Officials, and even with Kukiz’15. Reportedly, support for such a coalition reaches 8%. In the Platform's campaign headquarters, it is heard that PSL has already decided to run independently, and its own polls have confirmed this. This could mean that the opposition will go into the autumn elections in a suicidal variant: three coalitions: a 'Christian democratic' one (around PSL, possibly with Kukiz), a Civic one (PO, .N, and likely SLD), and a left-wing one (Spring, Together). It is unclear where the Greens and Initiative Poland would be then, and whether SLD would definitely not be tempted into a left-wing coalition.” -- THE "EVERYONE AGAINST PIS" VARIANT IS UNLIKELY - ACCORDING TO PACEWICZ: “Everything suggests that the 'everyone together against PiS' variant (seven parties: PO, PSL, SLD, .N, Greens, Initiative Poland, and Spring), which Włodzimierz Czarzasty dreamed of and Robert Biedroń spoke about in OKO.press, is no longer probable. As indicated by this and other polls, as well as election results, the potential of PiS and all pro-democratic forces are similar to each other, amounting to 42-45%. The key is how the opposition organizes itself.” https://oko.press/opozycja-w-rozsypce-to-277-mandatow-dla-pis-po-ciagnie-psl-do-koalicji-ale-kosiniak-ma-swoje-sondaze/ -- ON A JOINT LEFT-WING LIST, EVERYONE WINS - ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI IN KL: “In such a situation, the chance of creating a left-wing bloc significantly increases. For a very simple reason: the left-wing parties will need each other. Together has some money and engaged members, but it struggles to attract a wider range of voters. SLD has extensive structures, a loyal (though aging) electorate, and some money, but it balances on the edge of the electoral threshold. Spring, in turn, lacks money and structures, but still enjoys support at the 6-7 percent level. On a joint left-wing list, everyone wins. Together will finally gain seats in the Sejm and media presence, SLD will return to parliament and satisfy the hunger of party structures, and Biedroń will be able to leave for Brussels in peace.” -- PAWŁOWSKI ON THE POST-ELECTION SCENARIO: “In the worst possible scenario for him, the autumn elections for a PO-PSL coalition could end with support at the level of 20-25 percent. Let's assume PiS wins 40 percent support, and a left-wing coalition with 10-15 percent support also enters the Sejm. In such a situation, Schetyna not only does not take power but also ceases to be the clear leader of the opposition. Especially since PSL – fearing dissolution within PO – will immediately after the elections emphasize the differences dividing it from its coalition partner.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/07/09/schetyna-po-kosiniak-kamysz-psl-koalicja-za-przeciw/ -- JAN ŚPIEWAK ON HIS EXPERIENCES RUNNING WITH THE DUOPOLY - IN THE KULTURA LIBERALNA DISCUSSION: “The clash with the duopoly was very painful; for the last two months of the campaign, the media didn't invite us at all, and we couldn't do anything about it. I don't have an answer to this problem, but I think Spring came close to achieving its goal. I disagree with the view that a single left-wing list is necessary for the success of progressive forces. In politics, it is natural that at a certain point, a hegemon grows and collects votes, and I don't think that stubbornly thinking about building coalitions will advance us significantly. I am more interested in what happened with Spring. That is very interesting.” -- IT IS PIS THAT IS PREPARING YOUNG PEOPLE FOR POLITICS - ŚPIEWAK CONTINUES IN THE KULTURA LIBERALNA DISCUSSION: “Who prepares young people for politics? Law and Justice. The newly appointed minister, Michał Woś, is the first member of the Council of Ministers born in free Poland. Furthermore, PiS won the elections among the youngest voter group. It is quite remarkable that the ruling party, a right-wing one, wins among the youngest. If it wins, I understand that it has opened up career paths that were previously blocked. PiS has a project to build a new, national middle class and is successfully implementing it, drawing young people into this project. Meanwhile, the opposition had Leszek Miller, Marek Belka on its lists, people from the previous era. I am not in politics to gain a seat in parliament at all costs, but to change something. For me, SLD is not a credible proposal for change; it is rather the embodiment of what I have fought against for many years in my public activity. Young people who think differently from the old must simply take power themselves.” -- INSTITUTIONS TURNED PARADE PARTICIPANTS INTO CONSUMERS - ŚPIEWAK ON GOLDMAN SACHS PLATFORMS AT THE EQUALITY PARADE - IT'S SUPPOSED TO BE LIFESTYLE, WEALTHY PEOPLE, THE EGALITARIAN DIMENSION IS DISAPPEARING: “This is the core of the problem. Capitalism is experiencing a powerful crisis, and yet the left is not gaining ground, neither in Poland nor in the West. The right is becoming the beneficiary of this crisis, taking over social, egalitarian, and democratic demands. PiS is implementing some social program, while the other side is defending oligarchy and the status quo. There is a significant identity challenge here, which we observed during the last Equality Parade, where JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs had platforms right next to Razem or Spring. This situation illustrates a process in which the liberal world co-opts lifestyle demands, while simultaneously turning parade participants into consumers. According to this vision, the parade should be about lifestyle, wealthy people who can afford to do what they want, while its egalitarian dimension disappears. After all, large financial institutions are primarily involved in generating inequality and poverty, exploiting people. For me, the first issue is taxes. We have a very unfair tax system that is regressive, meaning it burdens the middle and poorest classes more, while collecting much lower taxes from the wealthiest. You cannot build a Swedish state with Polish money. PiS has no program for the state, and it remains made of cardboard. The second issue is environmental protection and the fight against climate change. On this matter, it must be clearly stated that Poland needs a nuclear power plant. The third issue is identity matters, the engagement with which, however, pushes us into the arms of neoliberals. This is a huge problem, and I don't know how it can be bypassed.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/07/09/stara-mloda-zadna-o-przyszlosci-lewicy-debata/ -- THE RESULT DOES NOT ALLOW FOR THE DEMOLITION OF THE DUOPOLY - JAKUB BIERZYŃSKI IN KL: “If we had achieved an electoral result that actually demolished the duopoly, we could continue to demolish it. However, our electoral result does not allow for such plans, so the strategy must be verified according to voters' expectations. They are clear: most people want to vote for PiS or a coalition of opposition parties.” -- THE COALITION NEEDS TO BE REIMAGINED - BIERZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “In my opinion, such a concept could sound like 'together, but separately.' We go together as a grand coalition because only together can we win against PiS. However, there is a price for such a move: Spring may lose a large part of its electorate, which will not accept running in a coalition with PO. In politics, two plus two sometimes equals six, and sometimes three, depending on what prevails: the premium for unity or the penalty for the dislike of mutually exclusive electorates. Spring, in particular, has a strong negative electorate towards PO, and we expect that people may not want to vote for us if we declare participation in the coalition. Therefore, this coalition needs to be reimagined. Not pretend that we have common views, because we don't. We must emphasize that we are united only by certain fundamental demands.” -- THIS MUST END WITH ECONOMIC COLLAPSE - BIERZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “It will end with an economic crisis and total collapse. It must end that way. And all economists say so. It's just a matter of time. You can't give money to everyone, unless you're Saudi Arabia and have oil reserves. Besides, this is no policy at all; it solves nothing. Firstly, the 500+ program was meant to increase fertility, which ended in spectacular failure. Secondly, it pushes people out of the labor market, and the Polish economy is suffocating from a lack of workers. If it weren't for the Ukrainians, we would probably already be in crisis. And we will be soon, because Germany is opening its labor market – and many Ukrainians will leave Poland. Thirdly, it perpetuates unemployment, keeping women at home because it's not financially beneficial for them to work. This threatens structural poverty in the future, because in a few years, when the benefits run out, these women will not have a profession. Perhaps instead of giving people 500 zlotys, it would be better to raise the tax threshold so that they save 500 zlotys. Money can be saved on the costs of collecting taxes and then redistributing them in the form of benefits, which further mobilizes people to work.” -- WE MUST WAIT FOR PIS TO LOSE TO THE GREEK CRISIS - BIERZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “We have to wait, and PiS has to lose to itself. We have to go through the Greek crisis, deep, with gigantic unemployment, poverty, a lack of funds for social payments and pensions.” -- SO THAT PIS RULES IN THE MOMENT OF CRISIS - BIERZYŃSKI CONTINUES IN KL: “We have to go through the crisis, and I prefer them to rule in the moment of crisis. It will be a difficult time, it will last five years, we will go back ten years in development, but we will survive. If the opposition takes power and we drown in the crisis, I don't know if democracy will survive it.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/07/09/bierzynski-wiosna-biedron-wybory-lewica-500-plus-kryzys/ -- MAGDALENA ŚRODA ON BIEDROŃ'S DEFEAT: “Only after Biedroń's defeat did I agree with the rather common opinion that we have a leadership crisis in Poland. Because I consider the party whose leader is leaving Poland a defeat, and by crisis, I mean the burnout of a certain model of leadership. It roots back to Machiavelli and is fundamentally patriarchal: a strong man who can gather masses around him and whose biography can be defined by narcissistic ambition for power understood as a strategy of tricking others, which in more propagandistic language is called caring for the common good, although it is no care at all, but a fight, and if it is good, it is not common, but party-specific. Because a traditional leader must have a party, and a party needs a male leader.” -- POLITICS NEEDS A CHANGE OF GENDER - ŚRODA'S CONCLUSION: “And I will repeat what I have been saying for years: we have had all possible parties in politics, all possible changes, but one has been missing: a change of gender. Perhaps it is time for it.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24974889,po-biedroniu-pora-na-zmiane-plci.html -- FALENTA COULD NOT HAVE BEEN THE MASTERMIND OF THE OPERATION - SAYS GRZEGORZ RZECZKOWSKI, AUTHOR OF A BOOK ON THE TAPE AFFAIR, IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI IN KRYTYKA: “That's what the court decided. And because of that, the whole plan apparently fell apart, and Falenta started to struggle. Before that, he thought he would be practically immune. He was supposed to receive a light sentence for revealing others' conversations; it was supposed to be a 'business matter' plus his personal revenge on Sienkiewicz for Składy Węgla. Only an independent court slipped out of control and wanted to imprison him. This was not in the script, so Falenta eventually fled the country. But even the way he fled suggests that he could not have been the 'mastermind.' Because every gangster in Poland knows that Spanish police have excellent contacts with Polish ones. Interestingly, and quite comically, Falenta was apprehended near Valencia, where 'Słowik,' one of the bosses of the Pruszków gang, once hid. A trip to Bieszczady would have made more sense.” -- RZECZKOWSKI ON RUSSIAN TRACKS: “A few things. First, that the Russian traces of this affair will be so strong and unambiguous. No one had previously checked that companies that are shareholders of Sowa have their registered offices at the addresses of companies from the so-called Radius Szustkowski group. That the last owners of Lemongrass were two gentlemen from Kaliningrad, one of whom graduated from the FSB school. That the vice-president of KTK Polska, a company key to the case, was an officer of Russian special forces, Dmitrij Łarin. And that this company rented premises right next to the Gdańsk branch of ABW, which the Polish counterintelligence did not know about. Finally – that I found a law firm in Cyprus where all threads converge because – let's recall – it serves almost all the actors in this matter. And the alarming state of the services. As a journalist, through conversations and open-source intelligence, I was able to access all this information. The services were either unable to, or it did not interest them.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/pis-nie-kiwnal-palcem-by-wyjasnic-afere-tasmowa-rozmowa/ -- PHARMACIES LACK MEDICINES, THE MINISTRY OF HEALTH IS TOO LENIENT WITH PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANIES - headline in RZ: “According to experts, low drug prices in Poland make it not a preferred market for companies. If there is a shortage at the drug factory, the producer will more readily supply it where they can earn more. However, as Marek Tomków, vice-president of the Supreme Pharmaceutical Chamber, notes, the law gives authorities the tools to enforce contracts resulting from the reimbursement act. – Article 34 of the act provides for monetary penalties for failure to maintain the continuity of supply, proportional to the number of undelivered packages. And since we are talking about hundreds of thousands of packages, these penalties could be severe – explains Tomków.” https://www.rp.pl/Zdrowie/307089907-W-aptekach-brakuje-lekow-resort-zdrowia-zbyt-lagodny-dla-firm-farmaceutycznych.html -- 12 YEARS AGO, JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI THREW ANDRZEJ LEPPER OUT OF THE GOVERNMENT. -- BIRTHDAYS: Włodzimierz Puzyna, Mieczysław Łuczak.

Łukasz Mężyk