state of play: 07/06/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Karnowski: We Can Say 'No' to Berlin and Survive in Good Shape, Niesiołowski: Schetyna is a Guarantee of Kaczyński's Success, Żakowski: Perhaps PiS Struck a Deal with Merkel?, Borowski Proposes the Name 'Honest Poland'

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THERESA MAY GIFTED THE POLISH PRIME MINISTER PING PONG PADDLES. -- KOSINIAK RESPONDS TO PLATFORMA, SCHETYNA SETS OFF ACROSS POLAND, PIS PROGRAM CONGRESS IN KATOWICE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/07/06 -- POLAND IS AMONG THE FEW COUNTRIES THAT CAN SAY ‘NO’ TO BERLIN AND SURVIVE IN GOOD SHAPE - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “All of this is, of course, not pleasant, and it also has negative consequences. Moreover, the fact that we have managed to resist so far and not die does not mean it will always be this way. One can also think that Berlin has not pushed the accelerator pedal to the end, and one day it might. All of this is true. But it is also true that today we know for sure: we can say 'no' to Berlin on a crucial matter and survive in good shape. If someone doesn't understand how much that means and what it tells us about Poland's real position, then they simply know little about international politics. https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/453807-polska-moze-powiedziec-nie-berlinowi-i-politycznie-przezyc -- PERHAPS PIS MADE A DEAL WITH MERKEL, OR PERHAPS IT HAPPENED BY CHANCE - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI IN WP: “The second explanation is that PiS gambled everything on the autumn elections, and among all that was Poland's position and the entire 'new Union' within the European community. Thus, nothing mattered beyond any success that could be boasted about domestically, and the only possible success was loud support for Angela Merkel in her quiet resistance to Timmermans. Perhaps PiS struck a deal with her, perhaps someone skillfully presented a goal that suited the German government, or perhaps it happened by chance. https://opinie.wp.pl/autor/jacek-zakowski/6014228461650561 -- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON REALITY IN PACKAGES AND LABELING: “As a result, if you criticize PiS, it means you hate the Church. And if you write that the Church is not keen on settling accounts with pedophilia, it means you are an enemy of Polishness and PiS. If you mock, God forbid, prof. Krystyna Pawłowicz, it means you are a left-winger and an advocate of abortion. All of reality comes in packages, and if you criticize any part of a package, you are immediately labeled accordingly.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/307049858-MichalSzuldrzynski-Lewak-szmata-ameba.html -- PIS MAY HAVE MORE THAN THEY DO NOW - MAREK BOROWSKI IN CONVERSATION WITH DONATA SUBBOTKO IN GW: “In the autumn, PiS might get over 40 percent, Platforma with Nowoczesna around 20, then a long gap, no two-digit results. Then D'Hondt's formula will work with greater force and take seats away from the opposition. If the opposition does not form a single coalition, PiS may have more than they do now.” -- MAREK BOROWSKI ON HOW THE LISTS OF A GRAND COALITION SHOULD BE CONSTRUCTED: “I proposed a method of constructing lists where smaller parties have only one candidate each, always in the same position, in every electoral district. Let Platforma take the first two spots, PSL the third, SLD the fourth, Wiosna the fifth. Everyone has a fixed spot and conducts clear campaigns. PSL says: we are the conservative anchor, if you want us to have as many representatives as possible, vote for number 3. SLD says: if you want a leftist approach, a secular state, etc., then number 4. I also proposed a name: Uczciwa Polska (Honest Poland).” -- BOROWSKI ON BIEDROŃ'S POMPOSITY: “Right now, he's reaching for the entire left, he's realized that in a moment he won't exist. I like Robert. I worked with him in the Council of Europe, and he made a good impression on me. Prepared, he had initiative, ideas, he knows languages, but there was too much bombast: we'll sort things out here, Schetyna for Deputy Prime Minister, 'old forest dwellers,' etc.” -- BOROWSKI TELLS SUBBOTKO ABOUT HIS LOVE FOR NUMBERS AND DISCUSSIONS: “I love numbers. And they love me; they rule my mind. I lament that there are so many people whom they do not influence. Mathematics is a pure, objective, logical science. I am a rationalist; I am interested in facts and what follows from them. I like to discuss, but not with everyone. Many politicians use deceptive arguments on air, present unverified numbers. Słonimski was once asked why he doesn't participate in some discussions. – I don't like exchanging views. I always lose – he replied.” -- BOROWSKI RESPONDS TO THE POSTULATE THAT PIS SHOULD DESTROY ITSELF - SUBBOTKO REPORTS: “Let it destroy itself along with Poland, right? One must not make such calculations. Because in the long run, Poland will develop if democracy is healthy, people feel good, make plans for the future, etc. Only the opposition can fix this – provided that all these coalition parties and little parties have a common program for Poland: a basic democratic package.” -- BOROWSKI TALKS ABOUT HIS LOVE FOR LEM: “I've read a lot, mostly Stanisław Lem, I had all his books signed by him. A high-class philosopher, and also a great writer and linguistic phenomenon. I've read his books many times, some fragments have stuck in my memory, for example, the poems of one Elektrybałt, an electronic poet.” -- BOROWSKI ON A LETTER TO KIEŚLOWSKI: “I believe that chance can change human fate. I argued with Kieślowski. I wrote him a letter back then, in the 80s, and gave it to him by hand; he lived nearby. In his film, the protagonist in one variant becomes an oppositionist, in another a party activist, in the third he is unengaged. In the first case, he is noble, honest, decent, and in the second, he is a pig. I thought that was an oversimplification. If someone is decent, they can become an oppositionist, but they can also be a party member. They don't have to have only negative traits. My father proved this, despite making the wrong choice. He taught me: if you see evil and lies around you, react and be decent yourself. I interpret this to mean that you can make a wrong or not the best choice, but at least in the part that depends on you, behave decently. Kieślowski was of the opinion that if someone chooses the party, then they are already not very good. And I was in the party at the time and said that it doesn't have to be that way.” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,24969093,marek-borowski-czasem-slysze-pis-nawarzyl-piwa-niech-sie.html -- NO PROGRAM WILL SAVE POLAND NOW, A STORY IS NEEDED - MARCIN KRÓL IN GW: “Let's stop talking about programs, agreeing on their details, and arguing about them as if programs were a form of knowledge and a promise of practical actions. No program will save Poland now, but above all, a program is a very poor form of storytelling. Our story should be about renewing the spirit, restoring hope to the individual, not about an extensive project of concrete actions, the effectiveness of which no one believes in anymore. (...) Not a program, therefore, but a grand project of Poland's renewal, which begins with the spirit, but naturally has a much broader character. A program of hope, which is the only good we possess, but also a completely sufficient good.” -- A NEW STORY ABOUT THE INDIVIDUAL INSTEAD OF THE OLD STORY - CONTINUES MARCIN KRÓL: “A new story, a story about the individual and their potential for good, hope, and decency, is a complete reversal of the current order, where power rules with aggression and lies, and the opposition directs aggression towards that power. None of us can say what, how quickly, and how far-reaching the consequences of this new story might be. It could be a matter of months, or perhaps years. However, the world has changed, and a new story must replace the old one, which is not only poor but also anachronistic. And everything depends, as great politicians knew, on favorable circumstances, over which we have little or no influence. However, if we stick to the old, to the old story, the old discussion about programs, and the old principle of political maneuvering, we will surely lose. I don't care if politicians lose, but do Poles deserve such a fate?” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,24966974,marcin-krol-czas-na-inna-opowiesc-inna-retoryke-inny-jezyk.html -- STEFAN NIESIOŁOWSKI LAMENTS TO ELIZA OLCZYK HOW ZCHN WAS ATTACKED - in an interview for RZ: “We were attacked for alleged Catholic fundamentalism, while we were a mild national democracy. We never questioned the role of the Constitutional Tribunal, the courts, and other democratic institutions. Compared to what is happening now, which is an offensive of nationalism bordering on fascism, and what the Church is doing, we were gentle sheep portrayed as wolves.” -- STEFAN NIESIOŁOWSKI ON FATHER RYDZYK AND THE END OF AWS: “The final outcome of those governments was lamentable. Buzek was a decent man, but he couldn't achieve much with that ragtag group – divided and susceptible to demagoguery. The fact that he managed to implement four major reforms was a great achievement. The end of AWS was a complete breakdown. The parties were bickering, but the populist, nationalist narrative was also increasingly visible – universal enrichment, money for Rydzyk – that began to dominate.” -- SOME BISHOPS ARE CRIMINALS, MY CHURCH WILL PAY A HORRIBLE PRICE FOR THIS - CONTINUES NIESIOŁOWSKI IN AN INTERVIEW WITH OLCZYK: “Not like that. We always defended democracy. Nevertheless, I consider politicians speaking in churches a big mistake. Please buy 'Nasz Dziennik,' 'Niedziela,' 'Gość Niedzielny.' They present the PiS vision of Poland and the world. Rydzyk's empire has nothing to do with the Gospel. Furthermore, the Church is deeply implicated in defending pedophilia. Some bishops are criminals protecting pedophiles. My Church will pay a horrible price for this.” -- IF SCHETYNA REMAINS AT THE HEAD OF PLATFORMA, KACZYŃSKI WILL ALWAYS RULE IN POLAND - CONTINUES NIESIOŁOWSKI: “As long as Schetyna was under Tusk, it somehow worked, but he is not suited to be a leader. He surrounded himself with sycophants who only care about Schetyna being the undisputed leader. His man, Robert Tyszkiewicz, was responsible for Bronisław Komorowski's lost presidential campaign in 2015. If Schetyna continues to lead Platforma, Kaczyński will always rule in Poland. Schetyna is a guarantee of Kaczyński's success. Very bad. He focuses on intrigues and pushing people out, but he cannot win elections. As a leader, he is useless. Platforma is in crisis, and Grzegorz Schetyna is responsible for it.” https://www.rp.pl/Za-kulisami-III-RP/307049880-Stefan-Niesiolowski-Grzegorz-Schetyna-jest-zlym-liderem.html -- JACEK GĄDEK ON WHY THE GOVERNMENT IS TAKING OVER WESTERPLATTE:“Without a special act, the ruling camp would de facto be dependent on the Gdańsk authorities if it wanted to organize commemorations at Westerplatte. And this is too great a risk for PiS – especially with just over a month left before the parliamentary elections. 'Reclaiming' Westerplatte and organizing large ceremonies there with foreign leaders is also an excellent opportunity to build a narrative about Poland's prestige and position on the international stage. For the PiS camp, this is too great a temptation to resist.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24968661,gdansk-jest-bezradny-wobec-pis-owskiego-walca-nie-spelnilo.html -- KINGA DUNIN ON WHY SHE VOTED FOR TRACZYK: “Wanting is not enough, however. To win the lottery – and as we know, the chances are very small – you have to at least play. So far, I don't see any players. And Traczyk's article convinces me of this. He ran on the Wiosna (Spring) list in the Warsaw constituency and presents himself as an expert of that party. I voted for him because I value his geopolitical commentary, and also because I wanted to say something to the Wiosna party: names are names, but take care of new, competent people who may not have political experience but offer a chance for a different kind of politics. And perhaps listen to them sometimes.” -- DEAR LIKERS, NO ONE IS LISTENING TO YOU - DUNIN'S CONCLUSION ON THE LEFT: “In left-wing circles, social media, and internet forums, the faction 'let's finally unite the left' is quite large. However, this may still be too small an electorate, too dispersed, and having no influence on the parties with which it had some hopes. Or perhaps left-wing politicians are as resistant to advice and suggestions from the outside as everyone else. They are fighting for different stakes or different votes. 'Let's finally form a left-wing coalition!' To whom is Traczyk saying this? To those who clearly haven't listened to his expert voice? To SLD, which is already preparing its candidates for the lists? To Nowacka? To Czarzasty? To the party grassroots, if these grassroots exist and have any influence on party decisions? It seems that today he can only speak to the left-wing electorate. If only they still had the will. But, I'm sorry, dear likers, no one is listening to you. Traczyk's voice may be your voice, but it is not the voice of Wiosna.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/kinga-dunin/nie-ma-koalicji-lewicowej/ -- THE FIRST HOUR AFTER WAKING UP DETERMINES WELL-BEING FOR THE REST OF THE DAY: http://www.wysokieobcasy.pl/Instytut/7,163393,24962944,pierwsza-godzina-po-przebudzeniu-decyduje-o-tym-jak-bedziesz.html -- DETAILED ANALYSIS SHOWING TRUMP HAS NO CHANCE OF RE-ELECTION: http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/01-2020-election-forecast -- DIE ZEIT ANALYSIS: SOCIAL DEMOCRATS DO NOT WANT TO SUPPORT VAN DER LEYEN ALONGSIDE ORBÁN AND SALVINI: https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2019-07/eu-kommissionsvorsitz-spd-ursula-von-der-leyen-nominierung -- BIRTHDAYS: Ryszard Petru turns 47, Cezary Łazarewicz, Rafał Dutkiewicz, Anna Zalewska, Andrzej Szkaradek, SUNDAY: Joanna Fabisiak, Andrzej Zarębski, Paweł Smoleński, Paweł Rabiej turns 48, Barbara Górska, Witold Klepacz.

Łukasz Mężyk