state of play: 07/04/2019

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: 100 Days to Election Silence, DGP: Schetyna for PM, Kosiniak for President, RZ Poll: Morawiecki Strongest for PM, Szułdrzyński: Morawiecki Invested in Good Relations with New EC President, Karnowski: We Avoided a Major Humiliation

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 100 DAYS TO ELECTION SILENCE, ASSUMING ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD ON OCTOBER 13TH. -- 300LIVE: Fogiel on PiS Convention: The President will bring everything together, and I expect him to outline the main directions of action we will discuss during the campaign.
https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/07/04/ -- SCHETYNA FOR PRIME MINISTER, KOSINIAK FOR PRESIDENT - GRZEGORZ OSIECKI AND TOMASZ ŻÓŁCIAK ON OPPOSITION ARRANGEMENTS - they write in DGP: "An alliance of Platforma Obywatelska with PSL and a separate left-wing bloc – this is the scenario that is beginning to emerge as the most probable for the autumn elections. Talks between PO and PSL will continue until Friday. Yesterday, Grzegorz Schetyna was scheduled to meet with Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz to seek an agreement. One of its points is to be a personal deal: presenting Grzegorz Schetyna as a candidate for Prime Minister and Kosiniak-Kamysz as a candidate for President. – Our President, your Prime Minister – laughs one of the PSL members." https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/601740,schetyna-premierem-kosiniak-kamysz-prezydentem-opozycja-po-psl-lewica-wybory-pis.html -- THE ANTI-SYSTEM REBEL WANTS TO UNITE WITH THE MOST SYSTEMIC FORMATION - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: "One can understand PSL – some of them will first applaud Jażdżewski comparing Catholics to pigs and then smoothly with a green banner head to Holy Mass. But Kukiz? Paweł Kukiz? This anti-system rebel wants to unite today with a formation that is a symbol not only of the Third Republic but of what has always been most systemic in this Third Republic? With a group that consumes political spoils most efficiently? With a formation directly transferred from the PRL? Is it possible that Kukiz has lost his social hearing so much that the authentic outrage of his voters at such an idea does not reach him? I think we are dealing with the following mechanism: this politician has become so fixated on a few trees (single-member constituencies) that he does not notice in which forest he wants to plant them. Well, everyone has the right to choose any coalition partner. However, Paweł Kukiz must be warned – he will build nothing on this ground. It will not be an effective arrangement, but it will be compromising. It will be, paradoxically, a painful lesson in political cynicism. Voters are not sacks of potatoes that can be easily moved around at will." https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/453586-ostrzezenie-dla-kukiza-wyborcy-to-nie-worki-kartofli -- MORAWIECKI STRONGEST FOR PRIME MINISTER - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA DESCRIBES A POLL FOR RZ: "It is still unknown when parliamentary elections will be held – the most probable date is Sunday, October 13th. IBRiS, commissioned by 'Rzeczpospolita', asked Poles who they would see as Prime Minister. Mateusz Morawiecki wins, but the largest group of respondents (35.6%) do not know who should become head of government after the autumn vote. The study used two variants – spontaneous, where respondents indicated candidates for Prime Minister themselves, and limited, where they chose from a proposed list. In the second variant, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz's significantly better result is noteworthy, as if the respondents themselves did not intend to nominate him, but when the name is suggested, they readily indicate it." -- DĄBROWSKA ON SCHETYNA'S DIFFICULT SITUATION: "The situation is different in Platforma Obywatelska. Grzegorz Schetyna is seen by 4.2% of all respondents (spontaneous variant) for the position of head of government after the elections. And among the PO electorate? Only 16%. Importantly, as many as 48% of PO voters cannot indicate who should become Prime Minister in the autumn. Among PiS voters, only 10% were in this group. It should also be added that in the poll published in 'Rz' on Tuesday, July 2nd, over 28% of respondents indicated Schetyna as the leader of the opposition. This may indicate a lack of faith in the victory of the Civic Coalition in the autumn or little faith in Schetyna's competence as head of government." https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/307039897-Sondaz-Kto-powinien-zostac-premierem-po-wyborach.html -- JACEK ŻAKOWSKI ON THE PO PROJECT FOR PUBLIC MEDIA - he writes in GW: "I am not here to advise politicians. But if I were Grzegorz Schetyna, instead of presenting the project described by Agnieszka Kublik at the July convention, I would immediately ceremoniously burn it, apologize to my partners for the misunderstanding, and get rid of the experts who prepared it in a way that undermines the credibility of the PO leader. Without this, it will be even harder to help the opposition in the autumn." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24960389,jak-pomoc-opozycji.html -- MORAWIECKI KILLED SEVERAL BIRDS WITH ONE STONE - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: "Furthermore, by openly supporting her, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki killed several birds with one stone. He invested in good relations at the beginning with the new President of the European Commission, which would have been impossible in the case of Timmermans, whom they ultimately managed to sink. In addition, the new situation may allow for a completely different dynamic in relations with Germany. Angela Merkel's party is beginning to realize that PiS will most likely govern after the autumn elections as well, so – while disagreeing with Jarosław Kaczyński or Mateusz Morawiecki on many points – they have decided that it is worth opening channels of communication with the largest eastern neighbor. Investing in relations with von der Leyen is an investment for Morawiecki in a kind of restart in relations with Germany. https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/307039892-Szuldrzynski-Inwestycja-Morawieckiego.html -- WE AVOIDED A MAJOR HUMILIATION - JACEK KARNOWSKI: "The Polish delegation returns from the summit with a shield. We avoided a major humiliation, which would have been the election of Frans Timmermans as head of the EC. The distribution that was accepted is not ideal, but it also offers a chance for a new beginning; new people always mean a new start, they are always something different. Of course, there is no guarantee that everything will go our way, but at least there is hope. Poland's situation is not easy. The Union is becoming an increasingly total organization, on two levels: left-wing ideology and the dominance of the strongest states. There are no simple, easy answers here. We have to fight, and not just bravely, but also intelligently, cleverly. In our own interest, in the interest of the region, in the interest of the entire Union." https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/453513-polska-bila-sie-w-brukseli-o-cos-wiecej-niz-o-wlasny-interes -- BLOCKING TIMMERMANS PUTS US IN A DIRE LIGHT - JAKUB MAJMUREK: "Secondly, blocking Timmermans casts our country and the entire region in a dire political and image light. Western media interpret what has happened in recent days as further proof that autocratic governments from the East of the EU, which have problems with liberal democracy and the rule of law, do not want to adapt to EU norms. What Timmermans was doing was interpreted in Europe not as an ideological crusade, or a lack of respect for national sovereignty, but as a concern that the Union should actually function as an area of jointly observed standards and values." https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/pis-nie-powinien-sie-cieszyc-z-zablokowania-timmermansa/89cyw8e -- THE NEW EC PRESIDENT IS NOT WITHOUT MERIT FROM POLAND'S PERSPECTIVE - JAKUB BODZIONY IN KL: "Nevertheless, PiS politicians are now competing to list von der Leyen's advantages, even going so far as to say that she is 'not German, but a conservative.' Indeed, this candidacy is not entirely without merit from Poland's perspective, because as Minister of Defence, von der Leyen actively engaged in deepening military cooperation in Europe. She repeatedly emphasized the threat posed by Russia, supported the implementation of the PESCO initiative and the European Defence Fund, which aims to coordinate EU defense spending. However, the Polish right has collectively forgotten, while praising Angela Merkel's loyal protégé, a proponent of European federalization, who voted for the introduction of same-sex marriage in Germany (the Chancellor herself voted against it). If PiS supports such conservatism, then President Kaczyński should appear at the next Equality Parade." https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/07/04/unia-europejska-top-jobs-bodziony-komentarz/ -- SCHETYNA IN WARSAW, SIEMONIAK IN WROCŁAW, NOWACKA IN GDYNIA, HGW TO THE SENATE - INTERIA ON KO "ONES" IN PO: "Grzegorz Schetyna in Warsaw, Katarzyna Lubnauer in Łódź, Barbara Nowacka in Gdynia, Borys Budka in Katowice, Tomasz Siemoniak in Wrocław, Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska in a district near Warsaw – these are the first preparations for the composition of the Civic Coalition's 'number ones' in the parliamentary elections." https://fakty.interia.pl/polska/news-pierwsze-przymiarki-ko-do-obsady-jedynek-nieoficjalnie-warsz,nId,3077844 -- STRONG POLAND, RENEWED WEST - ONET ON PO'S PROGRAM: "Integration within NATO and the European Union, Eastern policy, and coordination of actions between ministries and the Prime Minister – Platforma Obywatelska will present its foreign policy program today. We know the most important assumptions of the document 'Strong Poland, Renewed West.'" https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/polityka-zagraniczna-polski-zalozenia-nowego-programu-po/wv3nhy3 -- THE FUND THAT OWNS EMITEL WANTS TO INVEST IN POLAND - PULS BIZNESU WRITES AFTER A CONVERSATION WITH JIM METCALFE, PARTNER AT ALINDA CAPLITAL, WHO IS VISITING POLAND: "The fund that owns Emitel wants to invest not only in telecommunications." -- PB ON METCALFE'S VISIT TO WARSAW: "Americans are increasingly eager to cooperate with Poles. In mid-June, Presidents Andrzej Duda and Donald Trump signed a defense cooperation agreement in Washington, and a memorandum on cooperation in the civil use of nuclear energy was also concluded. (...) Recently, Jim Metcalfe from the infrastructure fund Alinda Capital Partners, which owns Emitel, met with representatives of Polish authorities in Warsaw." -- METCALFE ON INTEREST IN COOPERATION IN 5G CONSTRUCTION: "Poland is a very attractive market for us, and we are looking for opportunities here to invest in large-scale infrastructure projects. Emitel is a platform for us to invest in the telecommunications segment, where significant infrastructure expenditures will be necessary due to the construction of the 5G network. We are also interested in other sectors – transport projects or the public utilities sector – says Jim Metcalfe, partner and head of global investments at Alinda Capital Partners. - We believe we can play a role in building 5G infrastructure in Poland, says Jim Metcalfe." https://www.pb.pl/alinda-koluje-nad-cpk-965039 -- 9 YEARS AGO, Bronisław Komorowski became president. -- BIRTHDAYS: Cardinal Stanisław Ryłko, Jarosław Szostakowski, Adrian Komorowski, Kacper Pietrusiński.

Łukasz Mężyk