-- CZARZASTY SAYS 7% TARGET IS RECOVERABLE - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/07/01/ -- AFTER THE DEFEAT, THE OPPOSITION HAS STILL NOT GOTTEN PAST ORGANIZATIONAL PUZZLES - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN PTT: “Left-wing publicist Kaja Puto stated on Facebook that when you type the phrase 'they haven't learned anything,' Google directs you mainly to texts about Civic Platform. Today, almost everyone is trying to teach PO, and the opposition more broadly. In the latest issue of the weekly 'Polityka,' you can find at least three texts instructing opposition circles on strategy and tactics. A peculiar competition of offers is underway. And what? And nothing?”. -- WHAT DO THE PROVINCES HAVE TO GAIN FROM DULKIEWICZ, TRZASKOWSKI, AND METROPOLITAN MANAGERS IN THE CAMPAIGN TEAM? - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “Well, if choosing new faces means choosing between the mayor of Gdańsk, Aleksandra Dulkiewicz, and the mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, what are we even talking about? What does the Polish province have to gain from these candidates? And what does it have to gain from Karnowski and Zdanowska, metropolitan managers, in the campaign team? Perhaps the leader of PSL, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, would be such a figure. But hasn't he played himself to death with further evasions? And can someone who wants to run separately from the main opposition bloc be its candidate? Behind the scenes, another fierce debate is raging: is it safer for the opposition to run on several lists or to enforce unity. Contrary to appearances, this has not even been decided. Even liberal political scientists are arguing about it.” -- ZAREMBA ON THE OPPOSITION CAST IN THE ROLE OF ELITE: “The same thing is happening now with the liberals. It's not always entirely their fault. The right's attack on the Ombudsman, Adam Bodnar, is pure populism. The phrase 'the opposition defends murderers' is dishonest. However, this does not change the fact that time and again, the opposition appears as 'former elites' detached from reality and the everyday concerns of Poles.” -- PART OF THE OPPOSITION RESEMBLES THE RIGHT-WING FROM 2010 - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “Trzaskowski has already taken on the excesses of recent equality parades. Dulkiewicz will not escape them either. This is accompanied by fierce debates in 'Gazeta Wyborcza,' which wishes the opposition victory, arguing that marching under the emblem of a vagina is nothing wrong. Try explaining that to Poles, especially in two months. Part of the opposition circles resembles the right-wing around 2010. Piously convinced of its righteousness, it wanted one thing: to proclaim that righteousness as loudly as possible. This resulted in its alienation, its inability to return to power. On the contrary, others played them like they wanted.” https://polskatimes.pl/jak-przelamac-bezradnosc-opozycji-po-porazce-w-wyborach-europejskich-wciaz-nie-wyszla-poza-organizacyjne-ukladanki/ar/c1-14241443 -- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON THE FICTITIOUSNESS OF IDEOLOGICAL FORMULAS ON THE OPPOSITION'S SIDE: “And it doesn't matter whether Biedroń himself is behind the decision, or his sponsors, or a person who daily divides advertising between media (such is the charm of the post-communist system). Or perhaps external patrons. It's irrelevant in the face of another grim lesson in political cynicism taught by the Third Republic camp to Poles. Once again, the most conspiracy-driven theory, the concept assuming the complete fictitiousness of all ideological formulas on the opposition's side, turned out to be the most accurate. Emphasizing differences, even controlled mutual attacks, loud cries about freshness and novelty, and a strong programmatic backbone – all of that is fairy tales. Truly, there is no other way to explain the fact that Mr. Biedroń occupied Poles with his person and his party for so long, only to consider an alliance with Civic Platform in the end. Just like SLD, Nowoczesna, and the entire left-wing crowd.” -- THE CAMPAIGN IS THE SAME, JUST MORE SO - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “The pro-Polish camp must respond to this unequivocally – with great mobilization. What I said immediately after the elections is confirmed: the autumn campaign will be like the May one, only more so. Even sharper, even more dependent on the mobilization of Poles. It will likely also involve an attempt to incite hysteria by the Third Republic camp, perhaps even around the same topics as in the European campaign. Every vote will count. The PiS campaign team, here specifically in rousing supporters, will have to concentrate its efforts.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/452979-i-tak-oto-kolejna-spiskowa-teoria-o-iii-rp-sie-potwierdzila -- BIEDROŃ IS SIMPLY A SHORT-DISTANCE RUNNER - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: “Robert Biedroń's decision to 'bend the knee before Grzegorz Schetyna' (this is how one frustrated Spring activist described it) shows that the former mayor of Słupsk is simply a short-distance runner in Polish politics. It's clear that Spring's result in the European Parliament elections was not a great success, yet Biedroń and his people had at least a few other doors open and could have chosen a different course for their future activities. However, Spring turned out to be a seasonal party, as its name suggested from the beginning.” -- FIJOŁEK ON THE PRESSURE FROM ELITES ON BIEDROŃ AND THAT ONLY PIO HAS PREDICTABLE LONG-DISTANCE RUNNERS TODAY: “Biedroń is losing his life's chance before our eyes to create a movement that, in the long run, could have been a real gauntlet thrown at Schetyna and the creation of an opposition acting against PiS differently than the current Civic Platform. The elites of the Third Republic will triumph because they have achieved their goal, but again – just like with Spring – this is thinking in terms of a sprint, a short distance. However, it is PiS that wins the marathon in Polish politics: with consistency, stability, and, for the Polish center-right, surprising predictability on certain matters.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/452985-biedron-jego-ekipa-ale-i-elity-iii-rp-to-krotkodystansowcy -- ADAM SZOSTKIEWICZ PRAISES BIEDROŃ: “Therefore, the opposition, led by PO, should take Biedroń's change of position seriously and work out a good agreement with Spring for a joint run. Today, Biedroń has roughly as many 'sabers' as Kosiniak-Kamysz. The Peasants see and know this. The vision of PiS gaining a constitutional majority may also convince them to run jointly with Spring.” https://szostkiewicz.blog.polityka.pl/2019/06/29/biedron-nabiera-rozumu-politycznego/?nocheck=1 -- RYSZARD PETRU ANNOUNCES HE IS UNABLE TO COUNTER THE WAVE OF POPULISM AND WILL NOT RUN - in an interview with Grzegorz Osiecki and Bartek Godusławski in DGP: “In Poland, we are dealing with a wave of total populism, especially economic. Unfortunately, I am unable to counter these tendencies as effectively as I would like. I have always been true to my convictions and able to go against the current. Therefore, I do not intend to participate in the populism bidding war and will not be running.” -- PETRU ON RETURNING TO BUSINESS: “Like any normal person, not detached from reality, I will work and earn a living. I am simply returning to business. I am suspending the collection of signatures for the bill to liberalize Sunday trading, but I will continue to pursue the lawsuits filed against me by PiS politicians, including Jarosław Kaczyński. What is concerning is the Polish economy – unfortunately, neither PiS nor the opposition seem to realize how harmful PiS's handouts will be in the long run. Worse times are coming in the economy. This is already visible in the United States, as there are expectations of interest rate cuts; the situation in Germany is weak; I expect a significant slowdown in 2020, which, combined with rising inflation, will hit the Polish economy with double force. Whoever wins the election will have to pay PiS's bills, starting with the 13th pension and 500 PLN for each child.” -- WE CANNOT AFFORD KACZYŃSKI'S 'FIVE' WHILE REAL PROBLEMS ARE EDUCATION, HEALTH, AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP - PETRU CONTINUES: “Politics should not be about positions, but about programs. When the economy slows down, people will feel and understand that nationalization is bad, we cannot afford Kaczyński's 'five,' and the real problems are education, healthcare, and entrepreneurship.” -- PETRU ON THE MISTAKE OF NOT ACCEPTING 60 PO MPS INTO NOWOCZESNA: “Success is undoubtedly the creation of a democratically managed party that we managed to get into the Sejm. My biggest strategic mistake was probably not accepting about 60 PO MPs who wanted to join the Nowoczesna club in 2016. That would have given us almost a 100-member club.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykuly/601441,ryszard-petru-konczy-kariere-polityczna-wywiad.html -- THE OPPOSITION FROM BEFORE THE ERA OF KRZAKLEWSKI - GALOPUJĄCY MAJOR IN CRITICISM: “Let's say it bluntly: the current European Coalition has mentally regressed to the era before Marian Krzaklewski, and its electoral fight with PiS is like a bicycle race against a car. They haven't learned anything and won't learn anything. They can't plan a campaign, they can't make a commercial, they can't even come up with an election slogan. What's more, they can't even commission it to professionals.” -- THE OPPOSITION TRAPPED IN THE SEARCH FOR WARSAW'S DOUBLE OF TUSK - MAJOR CONTINUES IN CRITICISM: “All of this means that the opposition should think about an alternative candidate who could quickly start a campaign. The problem is that the rumors that used to circulate in the media about nominating Andrzej Rzepliński or the latest ones – about Aleksandra Dulkiewicz or, even worse, Rafał Trzaskowski – would mean that the opposition is still making the same mistake. It's looking for a political double of Tusk, when the original himself doesn't offer that many chances for victory. Another elite, metropolitan candidate in times of pronounced anti-elitism does not bode well for a major victory.” -- THIS IS HOW A CAMPAIGN SHOULD BE RUN, LIKE ARŁUKOWICZ - MAJOR CONTINUES: “Arłukowicz, meanwhile, has proven that he can conduct a campaign that he will win against Brudziński, and one that even impressed those who are not on good terms with PO. First, he planned it thoroughly with a team of analysts, and then he implemented it, village by village, municipality by municipality. This is how a campaign should be run, this is how you should 'bite the grass.' Tusk won't do it, Trzaskowski probably won't either. To travel across Poland from north to south, you need work, work, and more work. That is, what PiS politicians are capable of. Moreover, Arłukowicz, perhaps alone, would be palatable in the second round for left-leaning, liberal, and Christian Democratic voters. Biedroń has no chance of running with KE support, so the second round is unrealistic for him. For Arłukowicz with KE support, the second round is very realistic, just as obtaining the support of moderate left-wing voters in it is realistic.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/galopujacy-major/czy-najlepszym-kandydatem-na-prezydenta-jest-arlukowicz/ -- AGATON KOZIŃSKI FOR POLSKA, SUCCESS WILL BE IF THE EU DOES NOT ELECT LEADERSHIP NOW RATHER THAN ELECTING - he writes in WP: “Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has left for Brussels. The Polish government will likely be able to speak of success at the EU summit on Sunday if the new EU leadership is not elected, rather than if it is.” https://opinie.wp.pl/kozinski-europejskie-rozdwojenie-jazni-opinia-6397490509265025a -- TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ ON PIŚ'S LEGISLATIVE NEGLIGENCE: “However, a certificate of constitutionality may only temporarily solve the problem. Because judging by how eagerly legal circles use complaints to European courts, the controversial code may be challenged in Luxembourg and Strasbourg, which will cause further destabilization and legal uncertainty. Therefore, it would be much better if the Constitutional Tribunal questioned the amendment and the legislative process began anew. From the whole story, one more conclusion can be drawn: how devoid of control and analysis is the legislative process carried out by the ruling party. PiS, having a legislative majority, approaches procedures with too much nonchalance, which – as the case of the penal code shows – can not only be politically disastrous but can also threaten the quality and stability of enacted law.” https://www.rp.pl/Prawo-karne/306309964-Pieta-Achillesa-PiS---zamieszanie-z-kodeksem-karnym-komentuje-Tomasz-Pietryga.html -- TOMASZ SAWCZUK WRITES IN KL THAT THE CJEU RULING HELPS POLAND, HINDERS PIŚ: “The new ruling of the Court of Justice of the EU protects Poland from attempts by the ruling party to subordinate the judiciary. However, PiS will not stop trying. (...) In this new situation, three paths of action are open to PiS. First of all, PiS could withdraw from the changes in the courts that violate the principle of the rule of law and be a normal democratic party. Then, everyone (perhaps except for the hardliners in PiS) would calm down, and Poland would become a better country. However, there are no such sentiments in the ruling party. Jarosław Kaczyński announced a few months ago in an interview for 'Sieci' that after the elections, PiS would deal with the courts again.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/07/01/tsue-wyrok-sad-najwyzszy-niezaleznosc-komentarz-sawczuk/ -- ALEKSANDER HALL ON THE THREE BLOCKS OF THE OPPOSITION COALITION - PO - PSL - LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS - he writes in RZ: “If PiS wins the elections, local government will cease to exist, only its imitation will remain. Therefore, the local government community should be part of the opposition bloc. (...) I consider the optimal formula for the main opposition forces to be based on three pillars: PO (with its affiliates), a local government bloc, and PSL. Civic Platform has had trouble with its identity for a long time. It gives the impression of a party difficult to mobilize, increasingly reconciled to the role of the opposition. However, public opinion still sees it as the main opposition formation. It has strong bases of support in large city governments and significant financial resources. Without its participation, a broad opposition formula is impossible. The emergence of a local government bloc in such a coalition is extremely important. Public opinion does not yet realize that such a bloc is forming and is by no means merely an addition to Civic Platform.” https://www.rp.pl/Publicystyka/190639972-Trzy-filary-koalicji.html -- MAREK KOZUBAL IN RZ ON THE JUSTIFIED DISTRUST OF GDANSK AUTHORITIES TOWARDS THE GOVERNMENT: “The resistance of the Gdańsk city hall in this matter seems understandable. Three years ago, PiS seemingly won the dispute over the Second World War Museum. Today we know that it was not only about placing its people in this institution, but above all about winning the war over memory, which is still used in political disputes.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/306309933-Druga-niepotrzebna-bitwa-o-Westerplatte.html -- JERZY OSIATYŃSKI ON THE TRANSFORMATION - THERE WAS NO ALTERNATIVE - KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA REPRINTS HIS LECTURE: “Only in this context can I return to the question of alternative scenarios for economic transformation. Why did none of the 'economic' ministers of Tadeusz Mazowiecki's government propose a comprehensive alternative to the stabilization package? I can only speak for myself. I did not propose it because even in a very critical report assessing our stabilization program, which Professor Kazimierz Łaski prepared at my initiative, he did not question the stabilization package itself, but only its 'depth' and the associated economic and social costs. Professor Mujżel did not propose it. It was not on any 'menu of choices'.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/gospodarka/transformacja-czy-byla-alternatywa-osiatynski/ -- GW ON THE FRONT PAGE ABOUT POLAND'S PROBLEM WITH THE 'CLEAN AIR' PROGRAM: “The European Commission will no longer meet with the Polish government and work on changing the 'Clean Air' program. In practice, this means that out of 4 million coal stoves, we will manage to eliminate a small percentage.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,155287,24949458,miliardy-euro-nie-dotra-do-polski.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Michał Seweryński, Daria Nałęcz, Anna Skórzyńska, Krzysztof Szubert, Krzysztof Krystowski, Stach Kornatowski.