state of play: 06/28/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Szułdrzyński on a Potential PSL Success, Stankiewicz and Dziubka on Kukiz's List, Szymański on Portfolios for Poland, Olejnik on PSL and LGBT: "Do They Think Such Things Only Happen in Cities?"

Łukasz Mężyk

-- According to the Financial Times, PKO Bank Polski is the most stress-test resilient bank in Europe! KGHM and PKO BP are partners in the FT supplement about Poland. -- THE FULL SUPPLEMENT AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD ON PKO'S LINKEDIN: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6550002610227724288 -- BIEDROŃ ON WIOSNA'S OPTIONS, GOWIN ON SZCZERSKI'S CANDIDACY FOR COMMISSIONER - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/06/28/ -- 300GOSPODARKA REPORTS ON PUTIN'S INTERVIEW WITH FT: http://300gospodarka.pl/news/2019/06/28/kto-nie-ryzykuje-nie-pije-szampana-to-juz-nie-motto-putina/ -- KONRAD SZYMAŃSKI IN JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI'S ARTICLE IN RZ EXPLAINS POLAND AND FRANCE'S SITUATIONAL ALLIANCE: “The interests of France and Poland remain convergent to some extent, as both PiS and the French president's En Marche! movement are outside the two factions (EPP and Socialists) that have previously called the shots in Brussels. Minister for European Affairs, Konrad Szymański, explains to Rz: – In the case of Poland and France, regarding personnel decisions, we can speak of a situational alliance, stemming from a similar observation that the spitzenkandidat process cannot be treated automatically.” -- SZYMAŃSKI ON PORTFOLIOS OF INTEREST TO POLAND: “Sunday's game is only the first round of the Brussels appointments. The second will cover the competences assigned to the new commissioners. Here, Warsaw is setting the bar quite high. – When it comes to the portfolio of our future commissioner, Poland is interested in broadly understood economic issues. But I can also imagine interesting areas for us concerning agriculture, the digital market, or external affairs. We are too large a country to limit our interests to a single aspect of the EU,” says Szymański”. https://www.rp.pl/Unia-Europejska/306279850-UE-Tandem-Merkel---Macron-juz-nie-trzyma-wladzy.html -- "IF THE OPPOSITION DOESN'T UNITE, THESE ARE NORMAL ELECTIONS, NOT THE END OF DEMOCRACY" - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “If opposition parties contest the elections in separate coalitions, it means we are dealing with normal elections in a normal democratic state – PiS will be able to argue – and the scaremongering about the end of democracy will lose its power, just as the last election campaign showed that scaremongering about Polexit stopped working.” -- "AN ATTEMPT THAT KOSINIAK MIGHT SUCCEED IN" - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “This is, of course, a risky attempt – building moderate, Christian democratic, centre-right parties has not succeeded for creators of forces like PJN, Polska XXI, Polska Razem, etc., in recent years. However, unlike PSL, they did not have their base in the form of efficiently operating structures throughout Poland. The attempt to reach the rural folk electorate in the provinces and moderate centrists in cities might succeed for Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/306279841-Szuldrzynski-Ludowcy-miedzy-tozsamoscia-a-wyborcza-logika.html -- "IT WOULD TAKE A MIRACLE FOR PSL TO GO WITH PO" - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ AND KAMIL DZIUBKA ON ONET: “PSL has begun preparations for an independent run in the Sejm elections. Although Grzegorz Schetyna still hopes to keep the agrarian party in coalition with Platforma, it would take a political miracle for that to happen. -- PSL HAS MADE A DEMAND FOR A PO-PSL COALITION: “The agrarian party has presented Schetyna with a demand that is practically impossible to fulfill: they want him to get rid of other coalition partners. — We can run as a PO-PSL coalition. We governed together for two terms, and we are also in the same faction in the European Parliament — explains our interlocutor, a close associate of the agrarian leader Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. According to Onet's information, a fervent supporter of this option is, for example, Adam Struzik, Marshal of the Masovian Voivodeship. And it's hard to be surprised. It is thanks to Platforma that Struzik has retained his marshal's seat, which he has held for 18 years. In the autumn local government elections, PSL in Masovia achieved a poor result. The coalition was saved by Platforma's results, especially in Warsaw. In recent days, regional boards of the party have convened. Our information indicates that approximately half of the boards have opted for a PO-PSL coalition, and half for an independent run.” -- STANKIEWICZ AND DZIUBKA ON KUKIZ HAVING TO RUN ON THE PSL LIST: “The most advanced are discussions with Paweł Kukiz. However, the agrarian party is setting him tough conditions – he must run on the PSL's party list. There is no question of any coalition, because then the electoral threshold is higher than for a party (not 5%, but 8%).” -- ONET ON SKRZYPCZAK AND CONSERVATIVE PO POLITICIANS IN TALKS WITH PSL: “A similar ultimatum applies to all other candidates from outside PSL with whom talks are being held. According to Onet's information, this group includes, among others, Gen. Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the Land Forces, who, although appointed during Lech Kaczyński's presidency, is today critical of PiS's actions in the army. There is also a group of conservative PO politicians, sidelined for supporting the tightening of abortion law – including Marek Biernacki and Joanna Fabisiak. There are also personal enemies of Grzegorz Schetyna, such as the former Minister of Culture in Tusk's government and PO MEP, Bogdan Zdrojewski. The Platform leader removed him from the lists in the European elections because he has a long-standing regional war with him in Lower Silesia.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/psl-gotowe-na-rozwod-z-platforma-obywatelska/elg7r9b -- MONIKA OLEJNIK ON WHETHER PSL THINKS GAYS ARE ONLY IN CITIES: “PSL trembles at the thought of the LGBT card as if there were no gays and lesbians in the countryside. Perhaps they think such things only happen in cities?” -- OLEJNIK ON PO'S REJUVENATED STAFF AND KARNOWSKI'S CURLS: “PO and Nowoczesna have rejuvenated somewhat, with Brejza, Barbara Nowacka, and Sopot Mayor Jacek Karnowski at the helm of the campaign staff. I wonder if he vowed to go to the barber and cut his hair if PiS loses. Or maybe he'll have curls down to his ankles?” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24943217,syndrom-sztokholmski-marka-sawickiego.html -- 45% SEE CHANGES FOR THE BETTER, 36% FOR THE WORSE - PIOTR PACEWICZ ON THE IPSOS POLL FOR OKO.PRESS: “Out of every 100 Poles surveyed: 45 people say that things have changed for the better since the 2015 elections, and 36 – for the worse, while 14 people believe that nothing has changed (five avoided answering).” -- PACEWICZ REPEATS THE THESIS THAT YOUNG WOMEN ARE CONTRARY TO PIS: “Young women are the only social group where the opinion prevails that changes in Poland are bad. We saw this group's criticism of Kaczyński's government in the same poll: as many as 80% of women aged 18-39 believed that the current government prioritizes party interests more than PO-PSL (15% – believed it was less); 70% said it takes personal financial benefits into account. Young men were also more critical than older ones, but 73% perceived party loyalty in the government's politics, and personal benefits – only 56%.” -- PACEWICZ ON THE TERRITORIAL DISTRIBUTION OF SUPPORT FOR THE "GOOD CHANGE": “The poll also indicated differences in the assessment of PiS's policy depending on place of residence: in the countryside, 55% chose the answer 'for the better,' and only 26% 'for the worse'; in towns up to 20,000 inhabitants, the 'for the better' majority was smaller: 43 to 35%; in towns of 20-100,000 and 100-500,000, there was a statistical tie (respectively: 44% to 40% and 37% to 39%); in metropolitan areas (over half a million), there were 1.7 times more 'for the worse' assessments (54%) than 'for the better' (32%). All of this confirms that people of lower and middle socioeconomic status are satisfied with the changes, while those who are better positioned socially and therefore wealthier reject them.” https://oko.press/poparcie-dobrej-zmiany-od-2018-maleje-elity-i-mlode-kobiety-uwazaja-ze-zmiana-jest-zla/ -- PAWEŁ WOJTUNIK ON THE SERVICES - CONVERSATION BETWEEN EWA IVANOVA AND AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “Unfortunately, it is possible that in the Central Anticorruption Bureau there were officers more loyal to the party than to the Polish state. Just as it is possible that police officers cooperate with criminals.” -- WOJTUNIK SKEPTICAL ABOUT SIENKIEWICZ'S ROLE: “The Internal Security Agency was involved in the matter, supervised by the coordinator of services. At that time, it was the Minister of Interior, Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz. I'm not saying he steered the case in the wrong direction, but it required coolness, professionalism, objectivity, and no political elements. And Minister Sienkiewicz himself was recorded. Should he have coordinated this matter? Well, no.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24942717,wojtunik-o-podsluchach-i-spisku-sluzb-widac-desperacje-by.html -- THE TRIBUNAL STRIKES AT THE JUDICIAL REFORM - GW FRONT PAGE. -- "NOT A PROBLEM FOR MARSHAL TERLECKI, BUT A PROBLEM FOR POLAND" - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “It is not a great problem for Marshal Terlecki, but it is a problem for Poland. Presumably, a large part of Poles are also concerned that our country is deviating from the course of Western civilization and has adopted legal solutions typical of Eastern satrapies. Those where a judge is a state official or an employee intimidated by disciplinary proceedings. One who, instead of defending a citizen against the omnipotence of the rulers, executes the will of these rulers. There are Poles who are simply ashamed that Poland, due to the ruling party, is slowly sinking into the ranks of declining democracies in the European Union. And those who do not find the mental company of Orbán, and beyond the EU border – Łukaszenka and Putin, appealing.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24942695,beztroska-terleckiego-czyli-priorytety-wladzy.html -- "A BLOW TO THE GOOD CHANGE" - Marek Domagalski on the Rz front page: “This is the core of the opinion announced on Thursday by Advocate General of the CJEU, Maciej Szpunar. The Court of Justice of the European Union in Luxembourg may endorse it in a ruling expected in the autumn. This would then call into question the basis of PiS's changes in the Supreme Court and the judiciary. The Disciplinary Chamber, composed of new Supreme Court judges, is supposed to uphold the ethical (and legal) standards of the legal profession. It is criticized as a potential tool for pressuring judges.” https://www.rp.pl/Sedziowie-i-sady/306279852-Opinia-rzecznika-generalnego-TSUE---cios-w-dobra-zmiane.html -- TOMASZ PIETRYGA IN RZ ON THE RED LINE IN THE DISPUTE OVER COURTS - POLEXIT - WRITES IN RZ: “What will PiS do? In this situation, it is unlikely to make a preemptive move, as it did with the retirement age for judges. If it were to take such a step, it would dismantle all the changes in the justice system that it has introduced with such effort. The 'extraordinary cast' and the hated Frans Timmermans would triumph, which would be politically unacceptable. The red line in the dispute with Brussels is compliance with CJEU rulings. Behind it stands the political accusation of Polexit, which gains more power before the elections. Therefore, PiS will more likely avoid another political confrontation, treating this dispute as an internal matter of the judiciary, in which it does not want to interfere.” https://www.rp.pl/Opinie/306279847-Spor-o-sady-wraca-do-Polski---komentuje-Tomasz-Pietryga.html -- PROF. ZOLL TELLS JAKUB BODZIONY IN KULTURA LIBERALNA WHY PAD SHOULD NOT REFER THE PENAL CODE TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL: “It's unserious. The Constitutional Tribunal would receive for consideration a law signed by the president, which is considered correctly passed. The Tribunal's purpose then is not to repeal this law, but to identify errors, which are then corrected, and the law continues to be in force. I know that Minister Zbigniew Ziobro has very good experiences with the current Tribunal, but he should not use that as a basis for changing a legal act.” -- ZOLL ON WHY HE BELIEVES IN PAD'S VETO: “Because he is a president with a legal education and a doctorate in this field.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/06/28/zoll-weto-prezydent-kodeks-karny-nowelizacja/ -- THE ANTI-LOAN-SHARK LAW WILL STRENGTHEN LOAN-SHARKING - RZ: “The project adopted by the government will bring about the opposite of the intended effects: a million Poles may lose access to loans. One-fifth of them may be pushed into the financial grey zone.” https://www.rp.pl/Finanse/306279826-Ustawa-antylichwiarska-wzmocni-lichwe.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Marek Jurek, Krystyna Szumilas, Ewa Kierzkowska, Ryszard Zembaczyński, Ewelina Lach.

Łukasz Mężyk