state of play: 06/25/2019

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Pełczyńska-Nałęcz to the Opposition: Break Free from the Vicious Cycle of the Same People and Same Solutions; Dunin Bitterly on Schetyna; Raciborski on the New Middle Class; RZ: Pekao's Strategy is More Digital

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PRIME MINISTER TO ANNOUNCE PLAN FOR YOUNG PEOPLE AND OFFENSIVE ON ZERO PIT - 300POLITYKA: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/06/25/kprm-szykuje-ofensywe-dot-zerowego-pit-u-dla-mlodych-pmm-oglosi-poczatek-programu-oraz-zapowie-plan-dla-mlodych/ -- KOSINIAK ON PSL'S COMMITMENT TO BUILDING THE POLISH COALITION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/06/25/ -- PEKAO'S NEW STRATEGY IS MORE DIGITAL - MICHAŁ KRUPIŃSKI FOR RZ: “The president calls the current year a transitional one for the bank. Reductions in employment and digital transformation are increasing costs but are expected to bring significant savings. – I am convinced that next year, as planned, the bank will operate at its full potential and in a stable business model. I have an ambition to create an organization based on a data-centric culture (focused on data – ed.) with a much better understanding of the customer, inspired by the GAFA approach (Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple technology group – ed.). We need to focus more on this, and next year we will have a solid foundation for it. We will be able to present our approach in the first half of next year,” announces Krupiński. https://www.rp.pl/Banki/306249897-Nowa-strategia-Pekao-jeszcze-bardziej-cyfrowa.html -- THE RULING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT FOR THE KRS CASE - EWA SIEDLECKA: “The ruling will also be significant for the soon-to-be-expected verdict of the Court on the legality of the neo-National Judiciary Council. On Thursday, the Advocate General of the CJEU will issue his opinion. A situation where the appointment of judges is decided by a body fully formed and dependent on political power, in light of today's ruling, may infringe upon the guarantees of judicial independence necessary for citizens of the Union to enjoy the right to an impartial court.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1797760,1,trybunal-sprawiedliwosci-polskie-przepisy-sprzeczne-z-prawem-unii.read?src=mt -- THE CLASS CHARACTER OF ELECTIONS IN POLAND IS INTENSIFYING - PROF. JACEK RACIBORSKI IN OKO: “We are therefore observing quite traditional class divisions. The class character of elections in Poland is intensifying. PO and the coalitions it builds are becoming the party of the middle class. However, it is worth emphasizing that this is probably a new phenomenon, as in the 2015 parliamentary elections, support among entrepreneurs and directors was almost equally divided, with around 27% for both PO and PiS. A class-based voting pattern does not necessarily have to be detrimental to the Anti-PiS coalition, provided that the forces building it broadly define the boundaries of the middle class and manage to give it a fundamental political identity. If the core of this class is formed not by directors and business owners, but by teachers, civil servants, highly qualified service workers, healthcare professionals, etc., then the chances of the main blocs will remain balanced.” -- THE ONLY MORE SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW WAS FROM PSL, BUT IT'S ONLY A MAXIMUM OF 100 THOUSAND VOTES - RACIBORSKI CONTINUES: “A significant outflow to the opposing camp was only from PSL (12.4%), but even if all voters of this party had participated in the European Parliament elections, these votes would have amounted to only 97 thousand, i.e., 1.6% of the total votes for PiS. If we consider the outflows to Wiosna as remaining within the Anti-PiS bloc, and this is fully justified by the program and declarations of the party's leader, then the loyalty of voters of the parties forming the new coalition will prove to be enormous – the same as in the case of PiS. The European Coalition has therefore gained the acceptance of former opposition party voters as an organizational form of the Anti-PiS community.” -- ONLY 10% OF VOTERS DO NOT SUBMIT TO POLARIZING LOGIC - RACIBORSKI CONTINUES: “A measure of polarization is the fact that in all these elections, approximately 90% of the total votes were cast for the two distinct blocs. Hence the forecast that third forces will have a bleak fate. It seems that only 10% of voters do not submit to polarizing logic.” -- LEADERS OF THE ANTI-PIS CAMP HAVE REASON TO WORRY - RACIBORSKI'S CONCLUSION: “When we look at the absolute numbers, the political leaders of the Anti-PiS camp have a serious reason to worry. The parties making up the EC lost 1,493,000 votes compared to 2015, while PiS recorded an increase of 481,000 votes. Mobilization to a 45% turnout proved beneficial for this formation. However, it cannot be certain that mobilization to a 60% turnout will yield a similar result.” https://oko.press/zakrzepniecie-pis-i-antypis-klasa-ludowa-kontra-srednia-minimalne-przeplywy-analiza-raciborskiego/ -- THIS IS HOW PLATFORMA WANTS TO WIN BACK VOTERS - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “And Platforma has clearly taken this to heart. Neumann assures that although the campaign has not officially begun yet, as there isn't even an election date (they will likely be on October 13th), PO is already working: – We are preparing election lists, planning where to hang election posters, meeting with people. Our candidates will be everywhere, our banner will be hanging in every village, because we are going for every vote in these elections. We know how to fight. We are learning from our mistakes.” -- KUBLIK ON ELEMENTS THAT SURPRISED THE EC - UNEXPECTEDLY HIGH TURNOUT IN SMALL CENTERS: “An unexpectedly high turnout (45.68%, in 2014 – 23.83%), especially in rural areas and small towns up to 50,000 inhabitants. The larger the town, the smaller the increase in turnout compared to the European elections five years ago. Thus, voter mobilization in rural areas was 109% higher, while in cities with over half a million inhabitants – 66% higher.” -- KUBLIK ON TURNOUT PARADOXES: “Turnout paradoxes emerged, as higher turnout favored PiS, even in areas previously considered 'non-PiS'. This was the case in Warmian-Masurian, Lubusz, Opole, and West Pomeranian voivodeships. Analyses suggest that PiS mobilized voters from smaller municipalities in the opponent's territories, as turnout in 'PO's lands' increased more in rural areas than in cities. Furthermore, the party of Kaczyński also achieved higher results in poorer post-PGR villages and towns in 'PO's lands' compared to 2014. Additionally, in Pomerania, the 'stronghold of Platforma', the turnout increased the least of all voivodeships compared to 2014.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24931386,tak-platforma-chce-odzyskac-wyborcow-poznalismy-wewnetrzne.html -- REPOLONIZATION IN THE FALL - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “In the case of the media market, repolonization would mean nationalization, for example, of regional media. PiS is very keen for its message to reach areas where it has high support, particularly rural areas and small towns. Thanks to TVP Info and Polish Radio programs, PiS is effective in mobilizing its electorate, which was evident in the recent European Parliament elections. Taking over regional press would strengthen PiS's message in the regions.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24931152,pis-zasadza-sie-na-prywatne-media-jesli-wygra-jesienia.html -- THROUGH COMMUNICATION ERRORS, BODNAR PROVIDES FUEL FOR PROPAGANDA - JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “The ruling camp is skillfully building a narrative about a state that is ruthless towards a child murderer. The Commissioner for Human Rights, Adam Bodnar, principledly defends the rights of the suspect in this murder, but due to communication errors, he provides fuel for pro-government propaganda. Public media are therefore launching a witch hunt against him and his family. Thus, the death of a child becomes a weapon in politics.” -- BODNAR LIKE SAINT JUDE THADDEUS - GĄDEK CONTINUES: “In Catholic tradition, Saint Jude Thaddeus is the patron of difficult and hopeless causes. And in a democratic state, the Commissioner for Human Rights is supposed to play such a role. It is a lie that Bodnar is defending a murderer. Bodnar is defending, but the rights of a person accused of murder. The Commissioner for Human Rights must today – even if guilt will not be in any doubt for the court – defend the rights of Jakub A. This is also so that in the future, no other Tomasz Komenda, i.e., an innocent man destroyed by the state, is convicted of murder.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24930740,tak-smierc-dziecka-staje-sie-orezem-w-polityce-analiza.html -- WE FIND NO TRACE OF READING IN SCHETYNA - KINGA DUNIN ON MICHALSKI'S AND SCHETYNA'S BOOK: “Does Schetyna have any views? Visions of the future? What are the horizons of his political imagination? The heroes of his fairy tale are Churchill, Reagan, and Thatcher. He is a liberal, which he repeats several times, and immediately defines: he is for the free market and private property. And he probably doesn't even realize that the word can mean more, and what he's talking about is, at best, economic neoliberalism. He is a realist, he realizes that a pure free market cannot be implemented for now, KLD lost because it was too liberal and it needed to be packaged differently. Besides, he probably doesn't have a head for social philosophies or more sophisticated ideas. And although he reportedly liked football and reading in his youth, one can hardly find any traces of reading – unlike sports. He read something about Piłsudski, but he finished history, so maybe it was in class. Not reading is of course nothing wrong today; in Poland, reading supposedly harms one's political image.” -- IN THE POLITICIAN SCHETYNA, I FIND LITTLE BEYOND HISTORICAL NECESSITY - KINGA DUNIN CONTINUES: “I know that accusing PO or a coalition, which will surely arise under its auspices, of lacking an attractive program and cowardice on moral issues is a song that might have already become tiresome. Besides, maybe it is a historical necessity – there's no other way. Unfortunately, in the politician Schetyna, I find little beyond this historical necessity. But beyond that, he's a regular guy – religious, family-oriented, a fan of basketball and football, tough when needed, resourceful, loyal, he hasn't really said a bad word about anyone, only about PiS. He presents common sense, not some grand visions. Schetyna, warmed up.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/kinga-dunin-schetyna-historia-pokolenia/ -- PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ TO SCHETYNA - SHE WRITES IN GW: WHY DID YOU RAISE THE WHITE FLAG: “Why did the largest Polish opposition party raise the white flag four months before the elections? How is it possible that politicians from a coalition supported by 38% of voters so helplessly threw up their hands and decided they had no chance of victory? How is it that the opposition leader, on whom so much depends, could have lost the will to fight at such a crucial moment?” -- BREAK FREE FROM THE VICIOUS CYCLE OF THE SAME PEOPLE - PEŁCZYŃSKA-NAŁĘCZ CONTINUES: “It certainly won't be easy. The impossible must be done. Even the cleverest moving of pawns on the chessboard is no longer enough. The table must be overturned. Break free from the vicious cycle of the same people and the same solutions. Perhaps it is worth nominating a new, competent, but politically fresh candidate for prime minister. Announce that 50% of the places on the lists, including the top two positions, will be given to people from outside politics, the angry young, determined, and engaged. That faith, hope, and effectiveness will count, not party seniority.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24927482,list-do-grzegorza-schetyny-dlaczego-wywiesiliscie-biala-flage.html -- ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI IN KL ON PPK AS THE SECOND WAVE OF STATE PRIVATIZATION: “The consequences of such a change are difficult to predict, but it is very likely that the poorest will feel its effects most keenly, as they will simply not have additional pension security. Not to mention that due to rising housing prices, it will be more difficult for them to acquire their own homes, not for rent, but to live in. I am not inclined to formulate alarmist theses, but observing various dimensions of progressing privatization, I have the impression that while pro-government media are dominated by slogans about building a 'solidary Poland,' the pillars of the Polish social contract are in a state of decay. If nothing changes, this entire system will begin to collapse under its own weight. And it won't be possible to blame only the 'young' for it. They are simply adapting to the conditions they have to live in.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/06/25/pawlowski-emerytura-pantswo-druga-fala-prywatyzacji/ -- TOMASZ PIETRYGA ON ZIOBRO WINNING THE WAR WITH LAW PROFESSORS - HE WRITES IN RZ: “This stirred up legal circles, but the foundation of the dispute was a different approach to criminal policy and criminal law than that shaped over decades by figures like Prof. Andrzej Zoll. At that time, Ziobro did not manage to implement his ideas. In 2007, the Sejm's term was shortened, and the amendment failed at the final stage. Today, it is unlikely that anything will stop it. The good change in Poland has gained a majority in the Sejm capable of independently passing laws, and Zbigniew Ziobro can, after 12 years, realize his idea of strict criminal law. And the protest of scientists is merely the voice of one crying in the wilderness.” http://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1406162-Ziobro-gora-w-wojnie-14-letniej.html -- THE KOZŁOWSKA AFFAIR IS A LABORATORY OF STATE SHODDY WORK - Zbigniew Parafianowicz, Bartek Godusławski in DGP: “DGP has the full version of the report from the Moldovan investigative commission regarding the Open Dialogue Foundation. The document indicates that Poland may have cooperated in the case of FOD with – controlled by oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc – special services in that country. The matter came to light after the opposition, supported by the European Union and the USA, took power in Moldova two weeks ago. Maia Sandu became prime minister, and Andrei Năstase became deputy prime minister; they know Kozłowska and were, alongside her, the main targets of the investigative commission's attacks.” -- DGP ON THE SERVICES' BOTCH-UP: “We wrote in DGP back in September last year about the poor quality of the data, citing sources from within the ABW (Internal Security Agency). This has now been confirmed by the court. We have reviewed the Warsaw Voivodeship Administrative Court's ruling from April and its justification. DGP also possesses the full version of the Moldovan parliament's report, which was intended to discredit FOD and Bartosz Kramek's company Silk Road Bureau of Analysis and Information. It is an amalgam of truth, half-truths, and blatant falsehoods. We have learned about the accounts of people involved in the work of the investigative commission, which resulted in this document. In conversation with us, they revealed the behind-the-scenes of its creation and the pressure exerted on them by the oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc – who was removed from power two weeks ago.” -- BIRTHDAYS: Andrzej Aumiller, Wojciech Mojzesowicz, Piotr Tomański, Janina Sonik.

Łukasz Mężyk