state of play: 06/14/2019
STATE OF PLAY: Zaremba: American Polonia Has a Chance to Be an Effective Lobby, Karnowski: Opposition Has Concertedly Wasted 20 Days Since the Elections, Graczyk: The First Poland Sins with Arrogance, the Second with Ignorance
-- MUELLER ON THE UNIFIED V4 STANCE IN THE EU, SZEFERNAKER ON THE FACT THAT IT'S NOT OVER YET, BIEDROŃ ON 'WALKING THROUGH THE MEDIA' - https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/06/14/
-- PIOTR ZAREMBA ON TRUMP'S CALCULATIONS: “The patronizing, at times rude, Trump is naturally guided by his calculations. He uses Poland as a counterweight to Germany, with which he competes and which he wants to weaken. The Three Seas economic bloc is intended to serve this purpose, but it also pays for its most ardent builders to ensure their sense of security.”
-- FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE WILSON'S TIME, AMERICAN POLONIA HAS INFLUENCE - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “Another important motive is internal American, electoral. The Republican victory in 2016 was decided by the shift of several industrial states in the Midwest, such as Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, towards them. It is believed that the votes of Poles, enticed by Trump's gestures towards their old homeland during the campaign, were decisive here. The Republican, elected somewhat by chance, intends to repeat his result. For the first time in decades, perhaps since Wilson's presidency during the First World War, American Polonia has a chance to be useful to Poland as an effective lobby.”
-- WE ARE GOVERNED BY PEOPLE WHO UNDERSTAND OUR REASON OF STATE - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: “Platforma (Civic Platform) sometimes lacked determination in guaranteeing Poland's security (the missile defense shield issue during Tusk's government), while PiS (Law and Justice) can be overzealous. But the final effect matters. And it is invariably better rather than worse for Poland. We are governed by people who understand our reason of state.”
https://polskatimes.pl/piotr-zaremba-cena-polskiego-bezpieczenstwa/ar/c1-14210479
-- A COMPLETE MISUNDERSTANDING OF WHAT HAPPENED ON MAY 26TH, ARŁUKOWICZ IS PROOF OF THIS - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “It is also doubtful that the opposition activists themselves would so readily give up their holidays and love traveling to this less Warsaw-Krakow-centric Poland. Most importantly – all these recipes demonstrate a complete misunderstanding of what truly happened on May 26th. In these elections – for the first time since 1989 – we were not dealing solely with the triumph of a good program, interesting promises, or a strong leader, but above all with a gigantic premium for credibility. The achievements of Jarosław Kaczyński's camp are so substantial today and so appreciated by Poles that it seems impossible to undermine them with a quick summer campaign. This is what the opposition understands least, and that is why it seeks explanations in tangential matters and salvation in circus tricks. Mr. Bartosz Arłukowicz advising his colleagues that 'sometimes you have to dance and sing' to win over voters is a symbol of this confusion.”
-- 20 DAYS SINCE THE ELECTIONS HAVE BEEN CONCERTEDLY WASTED BY THE OPPOSITION - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Let us also note that almost 20 days have passed since the elections, and they have been concertedly wasted by the opposition. Not a single positive impulse has been sent to the Poles, not a single sensible change has been implemented in the structure of the defeated system. On the contrary – debates about who should unite with whom and against whom are deepening. The formation is clearly breaking, energy is diminishing, chaos is increasing. Evidently, there was and still is neither a plan B nor a plan C.”
https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/450861-opozycja-zmarnowala-juz-niemal-20-powyborczych-dni
-- THIS SPRING THE THIRD REPUBLIC CAMP WILL REMEMBER FOR A LONG TIME, THE PROPAGANDA LINE ABOUT POLAND'S ISOLATION IS CRUMBLING - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “Because this propaganda line, which claimed that Poland is isolated, that the world is beginning to treat us like some dirty dictatorship, and even if they engage with us, it's like Jaruzelski in the 80s, i.e., through the back door, is also crumbling. This narrative is dying before our eyes. It is dying both in the USA, despite significant investments in this matter on the American market, and in Europe; Polish diplomats report that after the May elections, the attitude towards Poland has significantly changed for the better – because it is evident that the current governments may last much longer.”
-- THE RIGHT IS COLLECTING A PREMIUM FOR PSYCHOLOGICAL RESILIENCE - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “The United Right camp is today collecting a premium for four years of hard work, perseverance, and psychological resilience. It is collecting a premium for a thoughtful, consistently implemented policy both domestically and in international relations. It is collecting a premium for a subjective, independent policy – always more difficult than clientelism, but the only path to greatness.”
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/450769-te-wiosne-iii-rp-zapamieta-na-dlugo-kleska-tu-kleska-tam
-- IT IS ALMOST A FAMILY BASED ON THE RESTORATION OF DIGNITY - A PIS POLITICIAN IN A TEXT BY MARCIN FIJOŁEK: “One of the more important politicians of the ruling camp recently convinced me: Please don't believe all the spin doctors, even our own, because nobody expected this and nobody carried out such an operation coolly, but the fact is that PiS has built a much larger and stronger bloc of voters than anyone thought. This is a bond that is not so much political as emotional, almost familial, based on the restoration of dignity – and not just in economic and social terms. The recent elections showed that PiS's base has become much wider and much more resilient than it might have seemed. If my interlocutor's thesis is true, it would mean that the support (in terms of votes) should be maintained until autumn. And perhaps even increased, as there is a common expectation regarding higher turnout, and consequently, perhaps even two additional million votes in the electoral pool. If it turned out that their distribution was somewhat favorable to PiS, and the ruling party managed to win over some of the Confederation, Kukiz'15, or PSL electorate, a result above 45 percent would not have to be a phantasmagoria.
-- FIJOŁEK ON SKY IS THE LIMIT FOR PIS'S RESULT: “This is just theorizing, but in the leadership of the Law and Justice party, there are such politicians, and important ones at that, who are starting to think more seriously in this direction. If 45 percent in the European elections is realistic, then in the autumn, the 'sky is the limit' principle might truly come into play, and with luck, perhaps even a bid for a fragile constitutional majority. This, of course, will not be announced seriously, but somewhere in the background, it smolders as a certain hope and path of action. What would such a new constitution look like? Well, that's a completely different matter.”
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/450771-czy-pis-moze-zamarzyc-o-wiekszosci-konstytucyjnej
-- ANDRZEJ GAJCY ON CANDIDATES FOR COMMISSIONERS: “Currently, on the shortlist of candidates for the European Commission approved by the top leadership, there are several names that, depending on the EU configuration, may be put forward as the Polish commissioner. These include Beata Szydło, Adam Bielan, Joachim Brudziński, and Anna Fotyga. Within the ruling party, another name is quietly mentioned: the current minister for European affairs, Konrad Szymański, who is considered by the authorities to be the most prepared politician to serve as an EU commissioner. Despite his vast experience and contacts in Brussels, Szymański is primarily seen by the PiS leader as a very efficient diplomat and negotiator, but not a politician to whom he would entrust such a prestigious position.”
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/wybor-komisarza-w-komisji-europejskiej-kandydaci-pis/rrj847e
-- POLITICIANS' ACCUSATIONS RESONATE ONLY IN CLOSED INFORMATION BUBBLES - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN CRITIQUE: “Politics in Poland has turned into a festival of baseless slander. Politicians hurl the most serious accusations, from which absolutely nothing follows; they resonate only in closed, completely separate information bubbles. Such a situation of accusation inflation, lack of responsibility for one's word, accusations without consequences, and impunity for slander corrodes the ethical substance of Polish democracy. For now, there is much to indicate that the Falenta case will only contribute to this corrosion.”
-- THE TAPES AFFAIR WOULD NOT HAVE SUCH SIGNIFICANCE IF PEOPLE FELT THEY HAD FAIRLY PARTICIPATED IN POLAND'S SUCCESSES - MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “The opposition and its sympathizers have a difficult task ahead. On one hand, they cannot stop pointing to PiS corruption and the decay that – despite its rhetoric of moral renewal – the party's rule is causing in the state. On the other hand, they must realize that this is not enough, that it is insufficient. The tapes affair would not have been so effective if PO and PSL had listened to their electorate, if they had known their moods and needs, and had been able to provide a political response to them. If people had felt that they had fairly participated in Poland's successes between 2007 and 2015, the 'octopuses,' high restaurant bills, and a few curses would not have led to a change of government.”
-- NO MATTER WHAT IS FOUND AGAINST PIS, PEOPLE WILL NOT ABANDON IT BECAUSE THEY RECEIVED SECURITY FOR THEIR FAMILIES: “Without understanding what the electorate needs, without offering them hope that things can be better, without captivating them with their own project, the opposition will not win for now. Regardless of what tapes are found against PiS, a sufficiently large group of voters may consider that the corruption, arrogance, hypocrisy, and everything else revealed on them is a price worth paying for the economic security of their families that the recent years have brought. We may consider such an attitude foolish, short-sighted, unpatriotic, but we will certainly not win against PiS by being offended that voters think this way. We need to give them hope that things will be better after PiS – not just tapes showing how terrible PiS is.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/fajenta-tasmy-pis-komentarz-majmurka/
-- PRESIDENT DUDA WENT WILD AT THE SALES - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “Of course, President Duda will use the 'success' in the USA and present himself as the one thanks to whom Poland has become safe. For now, he resembles a customer who went wild at the sales and effusively thanked the store owner for being able to make purchases. And when he returns home, he will look into his empty wallet and wonder if he really needs what he bought.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24897469,prezydent-duda-poszalal-na-promocjach.html
-- THE PEASANTS WILL MOST LIKELY GO SEPARATELY AFTER ALL - KRYSTYNA NASZKOWSKA IN GW: “The leadership of the PSL (Polish People's Party) would like to remain in coalition with Platforma Obywatelska (Civic Platform), but the party apparatus in the field advocates for independent participation. (...) President Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz certainly knows this, but he faces a serious dilemma because he must consider the votes of activists in the field. Although in the National Executive Committee, i.e., the party's authorities, supporters of joint participation with Civic Coalition have a huge advantage, the grassroots have a different opinion on this matter. In the NEC, Marek Sawicki, who criticizes joint lists, can count on two to three votes of support and is practically insignificant. But in the field, Sawicki's voice is audible and noticeable. And it is a voice that demolishes the party itself.”
-- WILL THERE BE ANOTHER PULLING OF THE ROPE? - NASZKOWSKA CONTINUES: “Perhaps the National Council of the PSL, which will convene after June 20th, once all votes from the field have been received, will play for time and authorize Kosiniak-Kamysz to continue negotiations with PO regarding a coalition. There will be another tug-of-war at a time when there is no time.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24893416,ludowcy-jednak-wystartuja-osobno-tego-chca-doly-partyjne.html
-- ROMAN GRACZYK ON THE WELL-FED AND SATISFIED: “The well-fed and satisfied proponents of the unalternativeness of the transformations of 1989 and the following years are now at war with the PiS government, which not only contests these transformations but also dismantles the rule of law. This gives the well-fed and satisfied a kind of alibi for the obligation of a critical look at the 30th anniversary. And only such a look is worthy of a proud nation – evidently, we are not, despite loud assurances in this matter, from both warring tribes, by the way.”
-- ONE POLAND SINS WITH ARROGANCE, THE OTHER WITH IGNORANCE - GRACZYK CONTINUES: “These two Polands are culturally very distant from each other. The first sins with arrogance, the second with ignorance. Together, this makes for a somewhat cardboard state – mainly due to the fault of the first Poland, and partly a party state – mainly due to the fault of the second.”
https://fakty.interia.pl/opinie/graczyk/news-gorzkie-swieto-wolnosci,nId,3042623
-- ŁOZIŃSKI RESIGNS FROM LEADING KOD: I PAID A HIGH PRICE: “Krzysztof Łoziński resigns from the position of chairman of the Committee for the Defence of Democracy. 'I paid a high price for my involvement in KOD. At the cost of permanent loss of health, my financial situation, enormous stress that affected not only me but also the entire family' – writes the leader of the association in a Facebook post.”
https://www.tvp.info/43063086/przewodniczacy-kod-rezygnuje-z-funkcji-zaplacilem-wysoka-cene-zaangazowania
-- THIS DAY IN 2014 – the wiretapping affair erupted. On June 14, 2014, fragments of recordings of two tapped conversations were revealed on the website of "Wprost" magazine. Two days later, transcripts of the recordings were published in the weekly's print edition.
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