-- NEXT TUESDAY MARKS JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI'S 70TH BIRTHDAY. Two days later, Mateusz Morawiecki turns 51. -- THE PRESIDENT IS ALREADY IN WASHINGTON, GOWIN ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A COALITION IF PSL IS NOT INCLUDED - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/06/12/ -- DGP ON PiS SOCIOLOGISTS' ELECTION CALCULATIONS - as written by Grzegorz Osiecki: “DGP has obtained electoral maps drawn by PiS. The ruling party's strategists are also identifying the easiest voter groups to win over. A strip along the western border and another running through the center of Poland from south to north are areas where PiS will be fighting for additional votes in the autumn. (...) Currently, at least six significant social groups have been identified. One of them is middle-aged women. This is an electorate that has often voted for the European Coalition. Another group is young people, who often vote for Korwin, and also rarely go to the polls.” -- OSIECKI DESCRIBES THAT CONTRARY TO POPULAR OPINION, PiS GAINED IN WEST POMERANIA WHILE THE EUROPEAN COALITION LOST: “An example of an area where one can work to achieve results is West Pomerania and Lubusz. In summaries of the European campaign, it was pointed out that Bartosz Arłukowicz won against Joachim Brudziński, snatching victory with an active campaign. But if we look at the numbers, the situation looks a bit different. The European Coalition received nearly 420,000 votes, which is 100,000 fewer than its constituent parties received in the regional assembly elections six months earlier. Meanwhile, PiS received 323,000 votes, an increase of 55,000.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/600011,mapy-wyborcze-pis-plany-rzad-wybory-sejm.html -- Duda 46, Tusk 31 - PRESIDENTIAL POLL FOR DGP AND RMF - COMMENTS BY ANTONI DUDEK: “For a PSL leader, 27% support is a very good result. This shows that if Tusk does not decide to run, Grzegorz Schetyna might decide on Kosiniak-Kamysz – emphasizes political scientist Antoni Dudek. The poll indicates that the tension between PO and PiS is helping the current president achieve a good result. – The survey proves that the core of PiS voters is 40%. The main opposition bloc consists of 30% of PO voters. Around 10% are from the left, and 10% are undecided voters – emphasizes political scientist Jarosław Flis.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/600030,sondaz-prezydencki-polityka-duda-tusk-kosiniak-kamysz-pis-po.html -- DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA ON HOW A SOLO PSL RUN BENEFITS PiS: “Kaczyński is very keen for the PSL to run separately: if the agrarian party falls below the electoral threshold, PiS will gain seats. If the PSL crosses the threshold, it may become a potential coalition partner for PiS. In either scenario, it weakens the entire opposition. We cannot underestimate the temptation PiS poses to PSL activists, so in the face of such a threat, a centrist bloc could be the optimal solution.” -- PROVIDED THE CAMPAIGN IS DYNAMIC AND FULL OF IDEAS, WHICH CANNOT BE SAID ABOUT THE EUROPEAN COALITION'S EFFORTS BEFORE MAY 26 - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “Alongside a centrist coalition of PSL and PO, a second leftist bloc could emerge, prioritizing issues such as liberalizing the abortion law, limiting the influence of the Church, and registered partnerships. This scenario could also prove beneficial for the opposition. Provided the campaign is dynamic and full of ideas, which cannot be said about the European Coalition's efforts before May 26.” -- MORE THAN TWO OPPOSITION BLOCS ARE A RECIPE FOR PiS SUCCESS - WIELOWIEYSKA'S CONCLUSION: “However, two such blocs would not be accused of lacking identity and program. It would be easier for them to prepare a coherent message, both ideologically and electorally. Voters would also not feel that by voting for their party's candidate, they are inadvertently supporting a worldview completely alien to them. This might help the opposition mobilize its electorate. One thing seems obvious: more than two opposition blocs are a recipe for PiS's success. A divided opposition, even if it enters the Sejm (which is not a certainty), will gain fewer parliamentary seats due to fragmentation. This increases Jarosław Kaczyński's chances for another four years of single-party rule, or even a constitutional majority.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24888155,lewica-osobno-i-centrum-osobno-czy-taki-polityczny-duet-pomoglby.html -- MORAWIECKI IS PRAGMATIC - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Therefore, it is good that these talks took place. I hope that neither side met to set a trap for the other and to later use this meeting against them. I trust it will be a starting point for a serious discussion about what is truly important for the system of our country. Especially since both sides gained something politically from this meeting. It builds Aleksandra Dulkiewicz as a representative of the local government community, which is quite skeptical of PiS rule. Mateusz Morawiecki, on the other hand, is shown as a pragmatic politician who can draw conclusions from the awkward situation of ignoring Dulkiewicz a week ago in Gdańsk and use it to organize a serious conversation.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/306119901-Szuldrzynski-Jaskolka-normalnosci.html -- THE MODERATE EUROPEAN COALITION ELECTORATE STAYED HOME BECAUSE PiS IS NO LONGER AN OPPRESSIVE PARTY - GALOPUJĄCY MAJOR CRITICIZES POLITICS: “Why can't the liberal opposition mobilize its own electorate? Because PiS has undergone an image change and is no longer a party of demolition and revolution, but has started pretending to be a normal party of the Third Polish Republic's establishment. -- MAJOR ON THE KEY ROLE OF COMPLYING WITH THE CJEU RULING: “We can pinpoint the moment of this change with day-by-day accuracy – it occurred along with the delivery of the ruling by the Court of Justice of the European Union, which, in interim measures, ordered PiS Poland to reinstate 15 Supreme Court judges. The implementation of this ruling (unthinkable in analogous cases of previous rulings by the then-independent Polish Constitutional Tribunal) and, above all, the cessation of seizing institutions, media, changing electoral law, and everything that children in 'anti-PiS' homes are fed before sleep, indicates that for the past year and a half, PiS has been trying to shed the image of a party that wants to muzzle the entire country politically, like Erdoğan in Turkey or Orbán in Hungary.” -- IT WASN'T THE BLACK MARCH THAT STOPPED PiS, JUST AS THE MUCH LARGER TEACHERS' STRIKES DIDN'T - MAJOR CONTINUES: “Nevertheless, this is still far from a system of true oppression, especially since PiS adopted its tactics regarding trade unions and equality marches from other parties of the Third Polish Republic era. The language of this government, its ostentatious contempt for anyone who dares to disagree with it, is just the flexing of muscles by a dwarf. After all, if Kaczyński had wanted to, he could have easily banned abortion in parliament within days or during a tea at Mrs. Przyłębska's in minutes, but he didn't. And it wasn't the Black March that stopped him, because if the much larger teachers' strikes didn't stop him, why would a march? Kaczyński's electorate was practically screaming with joy, rubbing their hands at the thought of an abortion ban.” -- PiS IS OPPRESSIVE AT MOST 3/10, WHILE THE OPPOSITION SHOUTS IT'S 6/10 - MAJOR CONTINUES: “I can already see the nodding of heads – PiS is indeed oppressive! But let's recall: PiS was supposed to change the electoral law to win the elections in Warsaw. They didn't. PiS was supposed to falsify elections in case of defeat – nothing like that happened in the lost municipal elections. PiS was supposed to nationalize inconvenient media; they nationalized nothing. Finally, PiS was supposed to dismiss all judges, but due to pressure from the European Union, protests from society, and politicians, they failed to dismiss everyone. In short, if we were to rate the system of oppression on a scale of 0 to 10, where 0 is an exceptionally friendly state and 10 is a totalitarian state, PiS's Poland is at best a 2–3 (PiS has executive power, which it does not use oppressively, and has not taken over independent common courts), while the opposition claims it's at a level of 5–6, and soon will be 7–8.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/galopujacy-major/pis-elektorat-wybory-opresyjna/ -- PiS HAS A PROBLEM FILLING A MANDATE - DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ IN NEWSWEEK: “PiS has a problem with filling the mandate left by Elżbieta Kruk, who, after getting elected to the European Parliament, leaves a vacancy in the Sejm. A candidate from PiS's Lublin list, who in 2015 lacked votes to get into the Sejm, was supposed to take it. However, three people have already refused to accept the mandate. - Is that really true? You've surprised me. For me, it used to be a dream to become a Member of Parliament. But perhaps it's about economic considerations. If someone has a stable job, is in the economic sphere, they calculate that these 4 months until the elections might simply not be worth it – says MEP Ryszard Czarnecki.” -- PSL MAY GAIN A MODERN POLAND MP - DŁUGOSZ CONTINUES: “The agrarian party also smiles mysteriously, saying their club will expand soon. This likely refers to Jacek Protasiewicz, who, after the merger of the PO and N clubs, is unlikely to want to cooperate with his former party. There is also talk of another Modern Poland MP who would prefer to join forces with the agrarian party at the end of the term.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/niechciane-mandaty-w-sejmie-jest-5-poselskich-wakatow-ktorych-nikt-nie-chce-wypelnic/jjy7j3n -- HOW PRESIDENT KURSKI WON THE ELECTIONS FOR PiS - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: "Before the elections, Kurski was concerned about Law and Justice achieving the highest possible result, as his future at TVP depended on these percentages. So, it's no surprise that he did everything he could to ensure PiS had an effective election campaign. He himself wanted to oversee it (as they say, 'a master's eye fattens the horse'), so he visited Nowogrodzka Street and advised the party on what to do. Because he knew perfectly well what he had to do for the party at Woronicza Street – be biased. And the punchline. Years ago, Kurski admitted that for him, Kaczyński 'is the most outstanding politician he has known closely.' And his television simply reports on this. Objectively, of course." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24889047,kurski-straznik-wyborczej-propagandy.html -- GW ON FALENTA'S LETTER: “When I discovered the procedure of recording by waiters [waiters testified that Falenta persuaded them to record conversations], from the very beginning, even before the scandal, I brought this information to your former treasurer, Stanisław Kostrzewski, to whom I was the first to show the obtained recordings in my office. I then hired his niece. Later, we met at your headquarters at ul. Nowogrodzka. It was he who put me in touch with CBA agents from Wrocław and ABW from Katowice, to whom I openly showed the material I had obtained. They asked me to continue this operation, which I did. Everything is precisely described in secret CBA reports. In the secret operational base of the CBA near Płock, I agreed to hand over all the acquired material. The handover took place by entering the information from the recordings into the CBA operational system by CBA agents using your [operational pseudonym] as the source.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24889074,ujawniamy-list-falenty-do-kaczynskiego-dalem-wam-zwyciestwo.html -- RZ ON MONITORING IN FALENTA'S CELL: “For security reasons, the protagonist of the wiretapping scandal was placed – by decision of the penitentiary commission – in a single, monitored cell.” https://www.rp.pl/Afera-tasmowa/306119899-Falenta-pod-specjalna-ochrona.html?preview=&remainingPreview=&grantedBy=preview& -- RYSZARD CZARNECKI ON PM MORAWIECKI DISCUSSING A TECHNICAL AGREEMENT WITH WEBER ON EPP - AS HE SAYS IN AN INTERVIEW WITH JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Manfred Weber, to my knowledge, and this was not mentioned in the press releases, discussed a technical agreement with Prime Minister Morawiecki, meaning cooperation with the European People's Party. Given our numbers, as the ECR group, we have a chance for a Vice-President of the European Parliament and a quaestor. We are fighting for the Polish commissioner to have an important portfolio.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/306119902-Czarnecki-Jak-sie-dzielic-europejskim-tortem.html -- THE NEW SPOKESPERSON IS TOUGHER THAN MAZUREK - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Prof. Antoni Dudek believes that Czerwińska as the PiS spokesperson means the party feels very confident after winning the European elections. – She is tougher than Beata Mazurek, for whom the centrist voter was not important. This could mean that PiS does not need the center, is not looking for a moderate face for the parliamentary elections, but for a person who will be able to discipline the party and activate the so-called PiS 'beton' [hardcore supporters]. Czerwińska might turn out to be a gift for the opposition if she presents even more arrogance than Mazurek – he says.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/306119907-Nowa-rzeczniczka-PiS-twardsza-od-Beaty-Mazurek.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Grzegorz Sroczyński turns 45, Krystyna Sibińska.