-- MUELLER AFTER PMM'S MEETING WITH WEBER ON WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WILL DO REGARDING THE NEW EC HEAD - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/06/07/ -- THE RIGHT WOULD HAVE 57 SENATORS TODAY - ANALYZES LESZEK KRASZYNA IN OKO: “As we wrote in OKO.press, the structure of electoral districts for Senate elections is favorable to the opposition if it reaches a strategic agreement and presents a single list. The support for PiS in the EP elections makes this thesis less current. If voters for the Senate were choosing between two blocs and voted as on May 26, the opposition would win only 43 out of 100 seats. If voters for the Senate were choosing between two broad blocs and voted as they did on May 26, 2019, the Right would win as many as 57 out of 100 seats. -- KRASZYNA ON THE PIS TRICK OF THE "INDEPENDENT LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL": “But unity alone – even if achieved – is not enough. The opposition must still close the national deficit with the Right and, above all, find strong candidates for the upper house. Not necessarily in metropolises – they will win there anyway. Primarily in those wavering districts where the difference does not exceed 10 percentage points – from Piła to Kalisz. PiS, on the other hand, can, and according to leaks, has such plans, use the trick of the 'non-partisan local government official' – meaning to support the candidacy of 'independent' candidates whose sole purpose is to take crucial votes away from opposition candidates.” -- OVERCONFIDENT RULING CAMP, LOST OPPOSITION - PIOTR ZAREMBA: “No regrouping of forces has occurred after the elections yet. We have an overconfident, perhaps even too confident, ruling camp, reflected in the government changes. And we have a lost, uncertain opposition, lacking a compass, which Donald Tusk clumsily masks with a moralistic tone.” -- ZAREMBA ON THE NEW EDUCATION MINISTER: "A PROVINCIAL PARTY ACTIVIST": “These changes, assessed on their own, look more than meager. Problems have piled up in education; even if the teachers' strike doesn't resume in the fall, intimidated by the election results, numerous issues will arise related to the accumulation of two age cohorts in the first year of high school. Provincial party activist Dariusz Piontkowski is to deal with this because he once taught in a school and headed the education committee in the Sejm. He will either follow the path of absurd, Balcerowicz-like ideas from Minister Dworczyk aimed at increasing the burden on teaching staff, or he will do nothing new. It's doubtful he will add anything of his own.” -- ZAREMBA ON TUSK'S MESSAGE: “Donald Tusk delivered another speech in Gdańsk on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the semi-free elections. Skillful in appeals for unity and hard work, but in its moralism, referencing the tradition of 'Solidarity,' it was addressed only to urban, intellectual voters from the Tricity area. It wasn't without humorous accents either, like when Tusk cited Lech Wałęsa's grotesque travels as an example of effective contact with people. In an atmosphere of polarization and tribal fervor, one can say anything. However, translating it into a language of communication with the majority of Poles will prove more difficult.” -- ZAREMBA: "PO'S IDEAS GO TOO FAR, BUT IT'S NOT A DISTRICT BREAKUP AS TVP CLAIMS": “In programmatic terms, Civic Platform is now advocating decentralization demands. This is not, as TVP propaganda claims, a district breakup or a prelude to the disintegration of Poland. Many countries have gone down the path of regionalization and are doing very well. Incidentally, PO's ideas go very far, too far, but that's material for normal constitutional debate. Although one can doubt whether it's an exciting goal for the ordinary Pole.” -- ZAREMBA'S ARGUMENT: "AFTER ALL, PO IS ALREADY WINNING IN THE METROPOLISES": “Incidentally, we don't know what this participation would entail. However, I draw attention to something more important. These are the leaders of metropolises where the European Coalition or PO itself is already winning. They speak the language of big cities about big-city problems. True, some representatives from the provinces also came to Gdańsk, but they didn't have a significant impact on the message. There's no sign yet of attempts to dismantle or even weaken the majority that keeps PiS in power. Apart from the absurd announcement by former Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz that she would go and convince the farmers.” https://polskatimes.pl/piotr-zaremba-po-wyborach-mamy-zbyt-pewny-siebie-oboz-rzadowy-i-pogubiona-opozycje/ar/c15-14191627 -- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON SCHETYNA'S ABSENCE DURING TUSK'S SPEECH: “Already on Tuesday, the symbolic absence of Grzegorz Schetyna struck me. True, the leader of Civic Platform appeared in Gdańsk, but his activity during the commemorations was very limited. Just laying flowers, a quick statement to the media, a few words with activists, and… that was it. Schetyna was absent during the peak moment of the commemorations (as seen clearly in the photos), and according to Krzysztof Wyszkowski's report, by the time Donald Tusk was speaking, the PO leader was already on his return flight.” -- FIJOŁEK ON RUMORS ABOUT THE BACKGROUND OF THE COMMEMORATIONS AND SCHETYNA'S REFUSAL TO SPEAK: “According to these eavesdroppings, Grzegorz Schetyna lobbied to speak on stage – alongside Donald Tusk and the mayors of the largest cities, but… he was not granted permission. Instead, he was reportedly offered the opportunity to participate in one of the debates that took place on the sidelines, essentially in the wings of the commemorations. The Platform leader allegedly refused this and took offense. Another rumor confirming the strained relationship between the PO leader and local government officials (and Tusk) is as follows: at a closed meeting, the mayors presented their idea for the composition of the Senate lists, exerting additional pressure on Schetyna and forcing concrete decisions. The Platform leader did not agree to this little blackmail.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/449809-jesli-plotki-z-gdanska-sa-prawdziwe-to-schetyna-ma-problem -- JAKUB BODZIONY IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: "SPRING IS DROWNING IN CRISIS": “Instead of recovering from the disappointing results in the European Parliament elections, Spring is sinking further into crisis. If Biedroń decides to accept the mandate and go to Brussels, it will mark the beginning of the end for his party.” -- BODZIONY FURTHER: "IF BIEDROŃ STAYS IN BRUSSELS, IT WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR SPRING": “If Biedroń actually goes to Brussels and directs his party's election campaign from there, it will mean the beginning of the end for his party – and perhaps for Biedroń's career as a political leader. The leader of Spring, whose greatest assets until now have been freshness and credibility, risks a flood of accusations of deception towards his team and electorate. If, as he said, his main goal is to be Prime Minister, he should stay in Poland and lead Spring to the Sejm from here. A permanent move to Brussels will be a reputational disaster for him, perceived as an opportunistic ploy calculated for personal financial gain.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/06/07/wiosna-biedron-komentarz-bodziony/ -- KRZYSZTOF MAZUR IN A PODCAST: "THE GOVERNMENT WILL ONLY BE FOR 4 YEARS IN THE FALL": “Half a year before the end of the term, it's difficult for a new minister to implement any real reform. The context is obvious. Only in the fall will a government for the next four years be formed. Everything will depend on the election results. The replacements entering the government are essentially ministers for only half a year, tasked with delivering certain processes, and a real, new opening will occur in the fall. However, the government reconstruction is a good moment to ask ourselves what is the essence of governing today.” -- MAZUR ON THE DICTATE OF THE STATUS QUO: “Let's assume, however, that he has managed to take control of the building, he has a team of people under control. Another problem arises here. A subordinate employee places a stack of papers on his desk. In reality, the minister will not learn about many details because he is unable to study them. He mechanically signs things that would happen regardless of who was in his place. And finally, once he manages to deal with all these things, it's 11 PM. The minister is so tired that he can say to himself – today I didn't manage to take a step towards the planned reforms, but tomorrow it will definitely be different. Unfortunately, at 7 AM the next day, the cycle repeats. The minister is ground up by the bureaucratic machine. A reconstruction occurs, and another politician comes to face the dictate of the status quo.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2019/06/06/mazur-rekonstrukcja-rzadu-byle-do-jesieni-video/ -- KAJA PUTO IN KRYTYKA: "DEAR LIBERAL PARENTS, YOUR NOSTALGIA WILL NEVER WIN AGAINST PIS": “Dear liberal parents, I understand it's hard for you to look critically at the history of the transformation and the Third Polish Republic: you consider it the fulfillment of your dreams, and many of you contributed to it. But it is precisely the ban on criticism and your complacency that allowed PiS to tap into the emotions of all those who did not get to enjoy the pleasures of Pendolinos, octopuses, and weekends in New York on a Polish passport.” -- PUTO ON THE SCENES FROM GDANSK: "YOU STILL LIVE IN ZOLIBORZ? NO, NOW IN KONSTANCIN": “Mostly those who witnessed those groundbreaking events celebrated, i.e., the 50s and 60s generation. Between the ECS building, the erected tent city of the so-called Social Zone, where various NGOs held their events, and several other points in the center of Gdańsk, crowds lost in the reverie of past years, wearing t-shirts with the inscription 'Constitution,' were circulating. Slogans were chanted, and songs from that era were sung, its heroes were applauded, long-unseen comrades and sisters in arms were hugged ('Do you still live in Żoliborz?' 'No, now in Konstancin'). And it was, in a way, moving.” -- PUTO ON THE EMBARRASSING WAY KWAŚNIEWSKI TREATED ROMASZEWSKA: “All former presidents of Poland came to the commemorations, but President Andrzej Duda did not – he sent Zofia Romaszewska to read a letter on his behalf. This was embarrassing, but equally embarrassing was that, in reaction – to the audience's delight – politician Aleksander Kwaśniewski, with a background not as pro-Solidarity as Romaszewska's, treated her rudely, ironically remarking that presidents write beautiful letters, but they should also read them sometimes.” -- PUTO FURTHER: "PIS HAS A PROBLEM WITH THE JUNE ELECTIONS LIKE RUSSIA WITH THE OCTOBER REVOLUTION": “Furthermore, PiS has a similar problem with the June elections as Russia has with the October Revolution – only in reverse. For Putin, the revolution is, on the one hand, an achievement in the timeline of Great Mother Russia and an event that led to the creation of a system that many of his voters long for. On the other hand, however, it also involved a popular revolt, and Putin strongly dislikes revolts. PiS, in turn, would very much like to co-opt the 'Solidarity' revolt, but its consequences – the Round Table and the establishment of the Third Polish Republic – are shrouded in dark legend, and they cannot truly celebrate them.” -- PUTO FURTHER: "COMPARING PIS TO THE PRL IS UNJUSTIFIED FOR A MILLION REASONS": “Comparing PiS governments to the PRL is unjustified for a million reasons. 'Solidarity' mobilized masses suffering from an economic crisis; today, the Polish economy is flourishing, and a good portion of its growth trickles down to citizens. Few probably remember today that among the 21 demands of 'Solidarity' were mainly social privileges – including, ironically, lowering the retirement age, partly due to the raising of which PO lost the last parliamentary elections.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/4-czerwca-gdansk-kaja-puto/ -- MAREK BOROWSKI ON THE FACT THAT TWO POLLING FIRMS SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM POLLS: “The election results surprised everyone because the polls were not so radical. Well, with some exceptions. CBOS, three days before the election, rated PiS at 50% of the vote, and the Coalition at 32%. IBSP, although it accurately predicted the difference between these groupings (6%), stated that the Coalition would get 42%, and PiS only 36%. I believe that both these firms should refrain from polling political party support for some time, and in any case, they should not be taken seriously.” -- BOROWSKI FURTHER: "IT'S GOOD, BUT NOT HOPELESS": “So, as the old saying goes, it's good, but not hopeless. What, then (if not Tusk and LGBT), was behind Law and Justice's such good result, and could the support for the European Coalition have been higher? The answer to this question lies in the high voter turnout. However, it would be naive to believe that some breakthrough has occurred in the consciousness of Poles and that European Union problems have suddenly become a topic of everyday conversations at dinner and barbecues. The turnout jumped because both sides, but primarily PiS, transformed this vote into national elections.” -- BOROWSKI FURTHER: "PERHAPS AN HONEST POLAND?": “Speaking of slogans – PiS's soft underbelly is the politicization of the state, paying themselves huge sums of money, nepotism and cronyism in state-owned companies and institutions, the lies of 'public' television and the prime minister, meaning general dishonesty. So perhaps 'Honest Poland'? This would require an honest admission that PiS's predecessors were not saints either, and the presentation of projects or at least draft laws that would eliminate such phenomena.” -- BOROWSKI ON HOW THE SEJM CONSTITUENCY SYSTEM WORKS: “Divisions naturally complicate the situation. They are rather to PiS's advantage. I calculated (carefully, for each of the 41 constituencies separately) that if we were electing the Sejm on May 26, PiS would win 253 seats, KE – 197, and Spring a full 9 seats, with 1 seat going to the German Minority. However, if the entire democratic opposition went together, PiS would have 236 seats, and a broad coalition – 223 seats, meaning PiS's lead would decrease from 47 to 13 seats! This is how the d'Hondt system works.” -- BOROWSKI ON THE 12 SENATE SEATS UP FOR GRABS: “In this case too, I recalculated the votes from the European elections for 100 senatorial constituencies. The result: PiS has 44 sure and almost sure seats (equal numbers of each), the democratic opposition also 44 seats (fewer sure, more almost sure). The most fierce competition will unfold in 12 constituencies, to which the opposition should pay special attention and allocate appropriate financial resources. And common candidates must be designated as soon as possible, so that the election campaign begins not in September, but now.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24872803,koalicjo-elektorat-wola-o-program-antypis-nie-wystarczy.html -- MONIKA OLEJNIK IN GAZETA WYBORCZA: "MAYBE THE OPPOSITION CAMPAIGNED ON ANOTHER PLANET?": “But is the opposition smart? After losing the elections, it's already starting to divide. Instead of dwelling on its sins, it should be looking for a way to campaign in the fall. When you drove across Poland, you could see photos of PiS politicians everywhere, and opposition politicians only here and there – as if they had been sucked out. As if they were campaigning not in Poland, but on another planet.” https://fakty.interia.pl/opinie/graczyk/news-polska-przegrala,nId,3030544 -- GAZETA WYBORCZA DESCRIBES THE BACKGROUND OF RIVALRIES WITHIN PIS (Kondzińska, Szpala): “In response to Kruk's action, Mazurek brought in Beata Szydło and brought her to Lublin – says a PiS politician. This is how the 'two Beatas' operation was created. In Kazimierz Dolny, Szydło asked for 'support, backing, casting a vote, entrusting confidence in Marshal Beata Mazurek, a woman who knows what it means to defend Polish interests, the interests of Polish women and men.' Mazurek reciprocated by saying to 'vote for her colleague Prime Minister Szydło, because a vote without loss is for Beata.' Mazurek outmaneuvered Kruk, gaining over 204,000 votes, more than 40,000 more.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24870084,wojenki-w-pis-o-europarlament-szydlo-zdenerwowana-na-jakiego.html -- PIOTR SKWIROWSKI IN RZ ON THE THREAT OF DEBT: “Economists have long argued that a wise government should use the period of rapid growth and economic prosperity to repair public finances and consolidate them. This is to allow for a slight loosening of the reins in more difficult times, thereby helping the economy to pick up speed again. And many countries have used the ending period of rapid growth in the global economy in this way. Many have recorded budget surpluses. Some have been recording them for several years. They have given themselves a chance for the smoothest possible transition through a period of economic slowdown. Our government has not paid much attention to such economic advice.” https://www.rp.pl/Blogi/306069851-Dlug-nie-straszy-a-powinien.html -- PAPCIO CHMIEL TURNS 96 TODAY! -- BIRTHDAYS: Robert Tyszkiewicz, Lidia Staroń, Leszek Moczulski, Jan Rzymełka, Wojciech Lamentowicz.