state of play: 06/05/2019
STATE OF PLAY: Karnowski on Inner Balance and Morawiecki's Collegiality, Grochal on Seams Bursting After Elections, Majmurek on a Clever Reconstruction
-- GW REPORTS THAT THE CBA ACTION AGAINST NITRAS' ASSISTANT HAS A POLITICAL ASPECT: “This ‘political’ thread of the prison micro-scandal, a storm in a teacup, emerged after the investigation was taken over by the National Prosecutor's Office,” says someone familiar with the case’s background. “And they are acting on direct orders from Warsaw. This looks like a political maneuver to me.”
– GW ARTICLE QUOTES NITRAS STATING HIS OFFICE ACTED CONVENTIONALLY IN THE CASE OF THE PRISON GUARD CONTACTING THEM: “I know the guard tried to contact me by sending SMS messages to my assistant’s phone,” says Nitras. “It seemed strange to me, I even had a thought of provocation, so I didn't engage. My assistant spoke with this gentleman, and there was nothing inappropriate about it. Is this enough to confiscate his phone and my computer? Who will have access to the data there now? Complaints have already been filed with the prosecutor’s office regarding Monday’s actions. Nitras believes the “matter is political.” It might be revenge for his anti-government speeches.”
http://szczecin.wyborcza.pl/szczecin/7,34939,24862071,przeszukanie-w-domu-asystenta-posla-slawomira-nitrasa-to-polityczna.html
-- JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI ON THE JOY OF WINNING ELECTIONS BEING LIKE A CAT PURRING AND ON EVERYONE BEING ABLE TO WATCH TVN – 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/06/05/
-- AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW ON THE RETURN TO THE CONCEPT OF A ‘MINI-GOVERNMENT”: “Michał Dworczyk, who heads the Prime Minister’s Chancellery, is recognized with his promotion to the rank of a constitutional minister. Similarly, Jacek Sasin’s nomination as Deputy Prime Minister. – I interpret both these promotions as confirmation of these politicians’ real standing and a return to the traditions of our first governments in 2005-07,” says a PiS politician. He recalls that when Jarosław Kaczyński was Prime Minister, his Chancellery chief Mariusz Błaszczak was also a minister without portfolio. And Przemysław Gosiewski, who led the work of the Standing Committee, held the rank of Deputy Prime Minister. – In his time, we called the committee a ‘small council of ministers.’ They prepare cabinet meetings. It's like a mini-government designed to relieve the main one, where nothing enters without committee approval,” recalls the PiS politician.
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24864211,prezes-kaczynski-przestawil-klocki-w-rzadzie-morawieckiego.html
-- JAKUB MAJMUREK ON A CLEVER RECONSTRUCTION: “The ruling party cleverly waited with ministerial changes until after the European elections. Following the victory on May 26th, the government reconstruction could be presented as another success. Not as a correction of a flawed course or erroneous personnel decisions, but as a new beginning, through which what worked well will work even better.”
-- PIS SENDS A SIGNAL THAT IT IS BETTING ON THE YOUNG – MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “PiS has also decided to send a signal that it is betting on the young. Piotr Müller, born in 1989, has become the government spokesperson, and Michał Woś, born in 1991, has been appointed a minister member of the Prime Minister's Chancellery. Their promotion is a clever move by PiS. It shows once again – after Andrzej Duda, to name the most spectacular example – that the party allows the young and ambitious to advance. It gives them a chance to learn the craft of state and politics. Politically, it looks even better when the faces of the European Commission are familiar ones, seen since the beginning of the century, if not the 90s.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/bardzo-sprytna-rekonstrukcja-rzadu-wedlug-jakiego-klucza-dobrano-nowych-ministrow/0mmpm3x
-- OPPOSITION IN NEUTRAL GEAR, SAME TRICKS, SAME IDEAS – JACEK KARNOWSKI: “The opposition is completely stuck in neutral gear. As I have written in these pages several times: since 2015, they have been trying to repeat the strategy from 2005-2007. The same totality, the same hysteria, the same emotional appeals, the same pressure on anyone who thinks differently, the same promises, the same faces of entertainment and political celebrities. The same tricks, the same ideas. But this time it's no longer working. Because Jarosław Kaczyński acts differently than during the first PiS government, partly because he can (he has a parliamentary majority), and partly because he has modified his course. There is less confrontation, more understanding of aspirational needs, and above all, there is a powerful buffer against opposition pressure in the form of widespread social programs. And there is also a rapid reaction to any, even minor, threat of social outrage – especially if it extends beyond elite circles.”
-- WHOEVER JANDA WAS MEANT TO CONVINCE, SHE HAS ALREADY CONVINCED, BUT HAS SHE ALIENATED EVERYONE YET – LOOKING AT HER POTENTIAL, WE CANNOT BE SURE – JACEK KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “The grand celebration surrounding June 4th was prepared according to an old principle, particularly valued by the Polish opposition: when in trouble, do more of the same. Frasyniuk and Kwaśniewski announce they are ‘free people,’ Janda reads a pompous declaration. But even the organizers themselves likely no longer believe it will yield any political results. Whoever Ms. Janda was meant to convince, she has convinced. Whoever she was meant to alienate, she has already alienated, although looking at her potential, we cannot be entirely sure of the latter.”
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/449566-opozycja-dodaje-sobie-otuchy-ale-to-wciaz-jest-jalowy-bieg
-- KACZYŃSKI BETS ON TEAMWORK – MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “This time, Prime Minister Kaczyński decided to emphasize teamwork and the unity of the entire camp. Hence, Jacek Sasin’s promotion to Deputy Prime Minister, which strengthens the political, PiS element. This is the source of Elżbieta Witek’s nomination as head of the Ministry of Interior and Administration, representing the strong (as the elections showed, very strong) Beata Szydło faction. Hence, the nomination of Michał Dworczyk, the head of the Prime Minister's Chancellery and a man for the most difficult tasks, as a constitutional minister. Hence, the smooth addition to the Ministry of Justice with the nomination of Michał Woś, a close associate of Zbigniew Ziobro.”
-- CONCERN FOR INNER BALANCE, RECOGNITION OF COLLEAGUES UNDER MORAWIECKI’S LEADERSHIP – MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “In my personal opinion, this shape of reshuffles, with attention to inner balance and recognition of a certain collegiality under Mateusz Morawiecki’s leadership, indicates that this government arrangement, if it secures a mandate to govern in the autumn, might be extended for future years as well. I don't think such decisions have been made; it would be counting chickens before they hatch, but it seems that in the assessment of PiS decision-makers, this camp does not need any internal revolution at the moment. Another matter is that new ministers and all of PiS face a difficult task. Now it is evident how energetic those who have left, led by Szydło, Brudziński, and Jaki, were, and what a charge of well-understood political energy they carried. Replacing them will not be easy.”
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/449496-michal-karnowski-rzad-jeszcze-bardziej-ma-byc-druzyna
-- GOVERNMENT FOR ELECTIONS, MORAWIECKI STRENGTHENED – MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “On the anniversary of the elections 30 years ago, PiS reconstructed the government, which is intended to help the party win the autumn elections. The new shape of the government, formed after Tuesday’s reconstruction related to several ministers’ move to the European Parliament, is meant to be a tool for PiS to help conduct the campaign for the Sejm and Senate. Mateusz Morawiecki himself is strengthened by the reconstruction, as two of his former associates have been promoted – Chancellery Chief Michał Dworczyk has become a constitutional minister, and Jacek Sasin, head of the Standing Committee of the Council of Ministers, has been promoted to Deputy Prime Minister.”
http://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1404829-Rzad-na-czas-kampanii.html
-- ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON THE REASONS FOR SASIN’S PROMOTION: “Sasin received the biggest promotion of all those appointed – from deputy minister to deputy prime minister. He owes this to his consistent work with Morawiecki, but also to his attention to his standings at the PiS headquarters on Nowogrodzka Street. After all, Sasin has become the face of the efforts to build Smoleńsk monuments in the capital.”
-- STANKIEWICZ ON PIS BEING ABLE TO AFFORD TO PROMOTE SECOND-TIER POLITICIANS: “The government reconstruction is a division of spoils among PiS’s second-tier politicians. This reshuffle will not bring any increase in the party’s or government’s ratings, as the new ministers are largely anonymous individuals. However, the ruling camp can afford this – the election results give the party significant comfort.”
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/zmiany-w-rzadzie-pis-stankiewicz-z-drugiej-ligi-do-ekstraklasy/mj4bcpl
-- EVEN AT THE EXPENSE OF ENTREPRENEURS – ANDRZEJ GAJCY IN ONET ON CHANGES IN THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE: “Banaś, on the other hand, is a trusted man of the prime minister, and also a person strongly associated with PiS. Years ago, he worked with Antoni Macierewicz, among others, and later with Lech Kaczyński when he was head of the Supreme Audit Office. It is difficult to expect that the new finance minister will oppose, like his predecessor, further electoral social promises that PiS is preparing for the Sejm and Senate elections. Quite the contrary, Banaś is a guarantor that he will support any program with a plus in its name, and moreover, he will actively seek funds to finance them. Even at the expense of entrepreneurs.”
-- IF NOT WITH KUKIZ, THEN WITH PSL – GAJCY CONTINUES: “The recently concluded European elections also showed that PiS cannot be sure of a future coalition with Kukiz’15. The result below the electoral threshold for Paweł Kukiz’s movement means that fewer and fewer people in the ruling camp believe in this alliance, should PiS be unable to govern alone. No one is hiding the fact that PiS would like to repeat the electoral success of 2015 and form a government independently for another four years. And the governing party’s result in the European elections is a good prognostication for this. In recent days, the idea of talks about a potential coalition with PSL and its leader Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz has returned in the circles of the ruling party.”
https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/opinie/pis-szykuje-ofensywe-na-jesienne-wybory-analiza/xd458pt
-- SEAMS MAY BURST ONLY AFTER THE ELECTIONS – RENATA GROCHAL: “This is meant to be the team that helps PiS win the autumn elections. However, autumn will not be easy for PiS. The new Minister of Education, Dariusz Piontkowski, will have to deal with the consequences of the precarious changes in education and parental dissatisfaction. The new Minister of Finance will have to find funds to finance PiS’s social promises. Everything will be subordinated to one goal – prolonging this camp’s rule and ensuring that the seams in its structure start to burst possibly only after the elections.”
https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/rzad-gotowy-na-wybory-skladanie-nowych-obietnic-bedzie-latwiejsze/171wwet
-- IN JAKUB BIERZYŃSKI’S OPINION, SCHETYNA IS NOT SUITABLE – as written in RZ: “After the first half of the match, it’s quite clear how to win the second. Firstly, Grzegorz Schetyna is not suited for the role of leader. He lacks charisma, vision, and a positive program. He is entirely imitative, both towards PiS – being anti-PiS – and towards Robert Biedroń – copying the positive points of his program: access to specialist doctors, moving away from coal, the LGBT card. The results and course of the elections confirm what we have known about the PO leader for a long time – a brilliant cadre selector, an effective negotiator, he brought the opposition parties together, created joint lists, and the opposition went into the elections united. However, this was largely a construct without substance.”
-- BIERZYŃSKI PROPOSES FIGHTING FOR THE PRESIDENCY, NOT THE GOVERNMENT – BLOCKING AUTHORITARIANISM: “Thirty years after the first elections, the slogan from those times should be reversed: our president, your prime minister. If it is true that we are facing a major choice for Poland’s future, then politics should be adapted to the weight of the challenge. Not fighting for power and ministerial seats in the perspective of the next election, but acting long-term. Poland’s economic growth is beyond saving, let’s try to save Polish democracy. The opposition’s goal should not be to seize power, and thus responsibility for the bankruptcy of their opponents' policies, but to ensure control that will thwart their authoritarian plans.”
https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/306049913-Niech-opozycja-nie-bierze-wladzy.html
-- ALEKSANDER KWAŚNIEWSKI ADMITS PAD IS ACTIVE AND CARES FOR VOTERS – as he says in a conversation with Piotr Pacewicz in OKO: “In the polls, he still received a very good rating, better than his predecessor. But to be completely honest… His greatest strengths are his activity and contact with people. This is often underestimated, wrongly. Duda holds many meetings, he cares for his electorate. He shows a lot of energy. However, it would be difficult for me to define the president’s strategic goals, and the lack of independence is the greatest deficit of this presidency. It is remarkably one-party. He announced that he would be the president of all Poles, but he is not. There were a few shy attempts to assert presidential independence, but nothing came of it, and the closer we get to the presidential elections, the more cautious the president will likely be. However, his activity must be acknowledged.”
-- KWAŚNIEWSKI ON PIS’S EFFECTIVE CAMPAIGN: “I observed the campaign for the European Parliament up close. And I saw how precisely PiS’s PR specialists operate. How they trigger further phobias, how they steer their electorate and mobilize it. There was only one difficult moment for PiS when the Polexit slogan appeared. They reacted immediately, European flags returned, and pro-European statements appeared, including from the president, who had previously spoken of an ‘imaginary community.’ Then came further provocations: LGBT threatening Polish families, the sexualization of children, a hand raised against the Church, the introduction of the Euro, which would impoverish Poles. And the constant repetition that they will take away what we have given and are giving. Horrible methods, but effective. In their category – top class.”
https://oko.press/kwasniewski-pis-ma-swietny-pr-ale-mozna-z-nim-wygrac-trzeba-tylko-byc-realista/
-- TUSK ADVISES FAT CATS TO GET OFF THEIR BUTTS – JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL: “In Gdańsk, Donald Tusk can always count on a friendly crowd, and there will be many eager for autographs and selfies. However, this is a bubble – a durable, but tight bubble. This does not diminish Tusk’s hegemony in the opposition – both in terms of political and intellectual format, as well as purely communicative. Tusk knows perfectly well, however, that by confining oneself to a liberal bubble, one can at best suffocate effectively, not win elections. The three pieces of advice he gave to the opposition attest to this well. Anger emanated from his words at the laziness and martyrdom of the opposition. At complaining and justifying their own defeat. – If we all did even 1/10 of what Lech Wałęsa is doing even today, we would have happier faces – Tusk was not joking when he said this. Tusk therefore advises – to use jargon – the fat cats to get their butts up and stop whining, because constant complaining – especially about public media – is becoming pathetic.”
http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24864811,przykazania-donalda-tuska-dla-opozycji-analiza.html
-- POLAND IS CLOSER TO THE FORMER THIRD WORLD THAN THE FIRST – BARTŁOMIEJ RADZIEJOWSKI IN NOWA KONFEDERACJA: “The supra-party substitute for state doctrine in Poland is Tupolewism: the practice of ‘tomorrow-ism,’ which accepts a semi-anarchic state of national political organization. The Third Polish Republic is like Tupolew: it satisfies few, but somehow works – until the first serious test. In political terms, today’s Poland is closer to the former Third World than the First.”
-- ELITES DID NOT BUILD A STRONG STATE, THEY WERE CONTENT WITH MANAGING INTEGRATION WITH WESTERN STRUCTURES – RADZIEJOWSKI CONTINUES: “Unfortunately, the elites that dominated over the Vistula River after 1989 allowed themselves to be lulled by the greenhouse climate of the Crystal Palace or corrupted from the higher echelons. They did not build a strong state or army, significant science or technology, sensible education or media. Nor did they find other ways to identify and solve major social problems, such as the demographic bomb, mass emigration, or high inequalities. They were content with managing integration processes with Western structures and highly imitative modernization. They believed in their own success propaganda, primitively focused on economic growth indicators. Dreaming of ‘the best period in Poland’s history,’ they repressed Poland’s entanglement in peripherality. In terms of security, the Third Polish Republic is de facto an American protectorate; in the economic sphere, it is a European-American condominium, with particular emphasis on Germany. It is an non-autonomous, para-state entity, a subcontractor and suburb of the system-world.”
-- RADZIEJOWSKI ON ASSERTING MENTAL SOVEREIGNTY: “Meanwhile, the favorable economic climate is ending. The world is becoming dangerous again. Serious tests of real, not declared, resourcefulness may soon arrive. Peripheries can, in a sense, be divided into two types. Those who are aware of their limitations, and those who stubbornly deny them. The former have a much greater chance of advancing in the international hierarchy than the latter. We belong to the worse category. There is still time to wake up, to assert mental sovereignty. But we should not expect there to be much of it.”
https://nowakonfederacja.pl/30-lat-minelo-jak-jedna-noc-przespalismy-je/
-- BIRTHDAYS: Ludwik Dorn, Jacek Protasiewicz, Paweł Lech, Stefan Śnieżko, Wojciech Sadurski, Leszek Dobrzyński.
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