-- AN INTERESTING EVENT AT THE BATORY FOUNDATION ON JUNE 3RD: On June 3rd, Aleksander Smolar will be commenting on the theses put forward by Prof. Timothy Garton Ash as part of the Wiktor Osiatyński Lecture titled "Poland, Europe: from the 'glorious revolution' of 1989 to the crisis of the Union in 2019". Adam Bodnar, Danuta Hübner, and Katarzyna Kasia will also speak - Monday, June 3rd, from 6:30 PM at the Stefan Batory Foundation headquarters in Warsaw, at Sapieżyńska Street 10A. -- PORĘBA ON HOW OPPOSITION TO ACTA2 HELPED PIS, PMM WITH PARENTS OF SIX-YEAR-OLDS, SCHETYNA ON CONCLUSIONS NEXT WEEK - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/05/31/ -- RZYMKOWSKI STRONGLY: KUKIZ IS MORE LIKELY TO GO WITH PSL THAN WITH KONFEDERACJA: https://nczas.com/2019/05/30/rzymkowski-w-paranoi-przeciwko-prawicy-kukiz15-powinno-wejsc-w-koalicje-z-psl-ale-nigdy-z-konfederacja-video/ -- PIS LOSES MOŻDŻANOWSKA'S MANDATE TO PSL - GW: "PiS's success in the European elections turned out to be beneficial for PSL, as the mandate vacated by Andżelika Możdżanowska will be taken by former MP Piotr Walkowski. – This means we gained four mandates in these elections, three European mandates [won by Adam Jarubas, Jarosław Kalinowski, and Krzysztof Hetman within the European Coalition] and one national – says PSL spokesperson Jakub Stefaniak". http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24846590,po-eurowyborach-partia-kaczynskiego-traci-posla-zyskuje-psl.html -- MAŁGORZATA WYPYCH AMONG THOSE MENTIONED AS RAFALSKA'S SUCCESSOR - as Agata Kondzińska writes in GW: "Details are kept secret. Our sources say that the name of MP Małgorzata Wypych, widow of Paweł Wypych, minister in President Lech Kaczyński's chancellery, who died in the Smolensk crash, is in play. – She has good education, is a lawyer, worked at the Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights, her appointment would not cause any emotions – explains a politician from the ruling camp. But nothing is decided yet – the decision has not been made". http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24846625,roszady-w-rzadzie-witek-bierze-mswia-pilnie-poszukiwany-nastepca.html -- SCHETYNA LIKE MARIE ANTOINETTE - MONIKA OLEJNIK IN GW: "Grzegorz Schetyna likely did not help the campaign, standing with his colleague candidate among flood victims in a suit and making videos. He and his colleagues, like Marie Antoinette, treated the flood victims to cakes. We really need to come to our senses." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24846350,potrzebne-pieniadze-albo-seksapil.html -- SOCIAL TRANSFERS, NOT MORAL ISSUES. HOW PIS WON THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS - RAFAŁ MATYJA in Krytyka Polityczna: "The above analyses allow us to state that PiS managed to gain a significant group of new voters in rural areas. Some of them were certainly taken from PSL. The question, however, whether this happened earlier or only when the PSL, by not putting up their own lists, 'pushed' them into PiS's arms - remains unanswered. Without a doubt, however, the opposition has clearly lost in rural areas. Importantly, the pattern of PiS's gains would suggest mobilization through social transfers rather than strengthening the worldview factor. After all, PiS did not gain new supporters in Podkarpacie and Małopolska, but in the 'religiously lukewarm' western and northern voivodeships." -- MATYJA ON PIS STRONGHOLDS: "PiS strongholds are the rural districts of five voivodeships: Lublin, Łódź (excluding Pabianice, Zgierz, and eastern Łódź), Podkarpacie, Podlasie (excluding Hajnówka and Sejny counties), and Świętokrzyskie. To this list, let's add the part of the Masovian voivodeship that constituted constituency 5 in the European elections (i.e., excluding the capital and its neighboring counties), as well as parts of the Greater Poland voivodeship (former Kalisz and Konin voivodeships), Silesian voivodeship (former Częstochowa voivodeship and some southern counties). Several cities with county rights, such as Jastrzębie-Zdrój, Łomża, Nowy Sącz, Radom, Siedlce, and Zamość, can also be considered strongholds of Law and Justice." -- MATYJA ON EUROPEAN COALITION STRONGHOLDS: "In contrast, the European Coalition's stronghold is much narrower and includes 8 largest cities, 15 further cities with county rights, and several 'doughnut' counties – including Jelenia Góra, Opole, and Zielona Góra. The rest of the country, including Białystok, Lublin, and Rzeszów, or rural areas in western Poland, represents an area of relative balance between the two parties. Only this arrangement allows us to see the scale of PiS's victory. It does not allow us to console ourselves with the idea that this party 'dominates' half the country and the opposition the other half. The area of significant PiS advantage is considerably larger than the area of European Coalition dominance." -- MATYJA ON WHERE THE EUROPEAN COALITION SUFFERED THE GREATEST LOSSES: "The greatest losses for the Coalition were in the poorly urbanized counties of the Lublin, Łódź, Masovian, Podkarpacie, and Podlasie voivodeships, as well as individual counties in Świętokrzyskie, Warmian-Masurian, and Greater Poland. In most of these, PSL had a good or very good result four years ago, at least fifteen percent, and in several cases over twenty percent. Only in one-fourth of the cases did the loss occur in a county where there was no high support for PSL, and in most cases, these were counties where PiS's result was higher than 60 percent." -- THE EUROPEAN COALITION DID NOT MAKE THE SLIGHTEST GESTURE TOWARDS YOUNGER VOTERS - MATYJA CONTINUES: "The European Coalition did not make even the slightest gesture towards younger voters. On the contrary, it reached for politicians known for their prominent roles a dozen or so years ago – Belka, Cimoszewicz, Miller. It is therefore not surprising that it broke the average age record for MEPs set in 2014 by PO. At that time, the average was 57.7 years, now – 59. Moreover, not a single politician under forty was elected from its lists. PiS introduced a slightly younger team to the European Parliament – the average age there is 55. I will emphasize, however, that the problem is not the presence of 70-year-old politicians, but the complete absence of thirty-somethings." https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/matyja-eurowybory-analiza/ -- PIS DOESN'T HAVE TO WIN IN THE AUTUMN - PROF. RAFAŁ MATYJA in conversation with Paweł Wroński in GW: "There are many factors: firstly, PiS has an exceptional ability to make mistakes. Secondly, I love Harold Macmillan's saying that as Prime Minister [of Great Britain], he feared most unpredictable events. For example, in 1997, SLD, having all the advantages, lost due to a flood, because Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz said that one should have taken out insurance, and Leszek Miller that someone must also take care of the dry part of the country. The third argument: while PiS was able to mobilize the vast majority of its supporters, the opposition did not mobilize theirs 100 percent. The game is still on." -- A WEAK CAMPAIGN FROM WHICH WE WILL ONLY REMEMBER JAŻDŻEWSKI - MATYJA CONTINUES WITH WROŃSKI: "The words in which the ruling party accuses the opposition of actions contrary to the constitution and social order, and announces actions – are dangerous, because they open the possibility of criminalizing the opposition. Fortunately, this did not happen. Besides, it was a substantively very weak campaign from all sides, from which we will remember Leszek Jażdżewski most, rather than statements from Kaczyński, Schetyna, or Biedroń. This does not reflect well on the leaders." -- THE EUROPEAN COALITION FAILED TO UTILIZE KOSINIAK: "The fundamental message of this lecture did not even get across, because Tusk is not credible as a politician of national reconciliation who could influence a broader electorate than the European Coalition. The leader of PSL, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, who has started each of his speeches in the last four years with a gesture of reconciliation and only said something sharp towards his opponent when provoked, would have had a better chance in this role. However, the European Coalition completely failed to utilize him." -- MATYJA ON SCHETYNA'S PROBLEM WITH VOTER SYMPATHY: "What strikes me is the complete lack of young people on the European Coalition's election lists, politicians who have not previously been ministers of this or that, whom the voter will not attack with the question: 'So why didn't you do this?' Grzegorz Schetyna should finally understand that while a party leader can be unpopular, he should have people around him who build sympathy for his formation." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24845927,prof-matyja-pis-wcale-nie-musi-wygrac-jesienia.html -- ALEKSANDER SMOLAR DOWNPLAYS THE IMPACT OF TVP PROPAGANDA ON ELECTION RESULTS - ITS EFFECTIVENESS STEMS ONLY FROM RESONANCE WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF VOTERS - he writes in an article for OKO.press: "However, I would not overestimate the role of propaganda in public media. We know from the history of Poland and other Central European countries that government control of the media can have the opposite effect, irritate, and lead to a turning away from the party controlling the media. The effectiveness of official propaganda likely stems from its resonance and acceptance by a significant portion of voters." -- SMOLAR ON FOUR REASONS FOR PIS'S SUCCESS: "In my opinion, PiS's success has four much deeper causes. These are economic redistribution, moral redistribution, management of fear, and an answer to the needs of communality and the resulting principle of equality." -- REMAIN FAITHFUL TO VALUES, AVOIDING DIRECT CONFRONTATION WITH TRADITIONALIST FORCES - WRITES SMOLAR: "The organization and engagement of opposition forces in the electoral struggle require analysis; the language used to address society; taking up topics that can reach different groups. One must remain faithful to values, avoiding direct confrontation with traditionalist forces." -- SMOLAR ON CONCLUSIONS FROM MARK LILLA'S BOOK - BUILD A COALITION BASED ON COMMON VALUES AND THE INTERESTS OF BROAD GROUPS: "It is worth drawing conclusions, for example, from the book by Mark Lilla, an American historian of ideas, who attributed the defeat of the Democratic Party in the US presidential elections to an excessive focus on identity politics, i.e., politics that refers to the morally justified interests of various groups, instead of focusing on building a coalition based on common values and the interests of broad social groups." https://oko.press/smolar-transfer-godnosci-strachu-rownosci-i-wspolnotowosci-czyli-jak-pis-wygral/ -- EWA SIEDLECKA ON THE APPARENTLY SAVED COWS AND THE RISK OF ARDANOWSKI'S NEXT DECISION: "According to the law, the cows still belong to the farmer from Deszczno, because the court, by convicting him for neglecting the herd, did not take the cows away from him. The minister cannot take away his ownership by administrative decision. The court must do it. The verdict against the farmer is final, so a cassation would have to be filed to change it. Until then, the farmer has the right to dispose of his property. He can therefore sell the cows to a foundation that wants to take them to its meadows for their lifetime. And this must be handled immediately, before the Veterinary Inspectorate issues another illegal decision that becomes final." https://siedlecka.blog.polityka.pl/2019/05/30/krowy-i-milosierdzie-pisu/?nocheck=1 -- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON THE LIQUIDATION OF PSL: "The PSL banner will probably remain and function within some alliance of the Third Republic, just as SLD or Unia Pracy function. Candidates will be on the lists and will win some mandates. But Polish People's Party understood as a formation rooted in the countryside, independent, capable of political maneuver, is clearly becoming a thing of the past. And no praise from 'Wyborcza' or TVN will compensate for these losses." https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/448842-wyglada-na-to-ze-kosiniak-postanowil-zlikwidowac-psl -- FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF A WIOSNA VOTER, VOTING IN THE AUTUMN IS A RISK - SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI: "All the more so because the situation on the opposition side has become much more predictable and manageable for the European Coalition. It remains the only player on that side today. If Wiosna was able to achieve 6% in the easiest European elections, then in the parliamentary elections, which will be 'for life,' when polarization intensifies again, it has no chance. From the perspective of a Wiosna voter, there is no good reason to risk their vote, without looking at the rivalry with PiS, now for everything." -- THE COALITION MUST BET ON PSL, AND FOR PSL, THE EUROPEAN COALITION IS THE FUTURE - SIERAKOWSKI CONTINUES: "The coalition can now bet on PSL to win back the provinces. It will likely not lose cities, as cities have no choice. No one will be waiting for Tusk on a white horse anymore, because although he is still a politician who can be very useful, it is known that he will not win elections for the Coalition. The European Coalition is not a threat to PSL. It is the future of this party." https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/slawomir-sierakowski-nie-ma-psl-bez-kosiniaka-i-ke-opinia/x88h8fy -- PSL WILL SINK ON ITS OWN - KRYSTYNA NASZKOWSKA in OKO: "If PSL decides to run independently in the autumn elections, it will probably sink. After all, this historic result for PSL MEPs also came from the support of the Platform electorate. For example, Kalinowski, a farmer from Mazovia, received twice as many votes in Siedlce itself as in Siedlce county. Władysław Teofil Bartoszewski ran from the last place on the Warsaw list and received over 34,000 votes, ultimately moving up to fifth place. Such a feat has not been achieved by any PSL candidate in Warsaw so far." -- NASZKOWSKA ON THE SHRINKING NATURAL BASE OF PSL: "PSL must try to reach a broader electorate, city dwellers, because the number of people working in agriculture and living from agriculture is decreasing year by year, and the natural base of the peasant party is shrinking. Out of 1.4 million recipients of agricultural subsidies, about 300,000 can be considered farmers. The rest are social voters for whom state aid and national slogans matter – PSL has nothing to look for here. It is not enough to rely on the 125 years of PSL tradition, to brandish slogans about the power of the oldest peasant party in this country, which cannot be eradicated. PiS is the people's party today." -- PERHAPS PSL IS SIMPLY APPLYING NEGOTIATING PRESSURE ON SCHETYNA - NASZKOWSKA CONTINUES: "But perhaps PSL does not intend to run independently at all. Perhaps by distancing itself from the Coalition now, it is trying to force a better position for itself from Schetyna. This is a kind of scare tactic, because the Coalition without PSL will certainly get fewer votes, and it will be of little comfort to Schetyna that the peasant party will also lose out." https://oko.press/ludowcy-musza-zdecydowac-czy-jest-zycie-dla-psl-poza-koalicja-analiza-naszkowskiej/ -- ADAM SZOSTKIEWICZ ON THE EUROPEAN COALITION'S DEFEAT BEING LIKE MAZOWIECKI'S LOSS TO TYMIŃSKI: "The European Coalition lost, but that's no reason to make Grzegorz Schetyna the father of this defeat. The EC's result was a defeat, but not an humiliation. Anyone who remembers the beginnings of democracy in Poland after 1989 remembers Tadeusz Mazowiecki's loss to 'Stan' Tymiński in the first round of the presidential elections in 1990, the first completely free ones. It was an humiliation for the camp rebuilding a democratic and law-abiding Polish state. And an early warning sign against populism as a force using democratic freedoms against open democracy." https://szostkiewicz.blog.polityka.pl/2019/05/29/teraz-koalicja-demokratyczna -- ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA ON PIS'S CALMNESS AND RESTRAINED MANNERS AFTER THE ELECTIONS: "PiS does not need to for now – because they won. Restrained manners and frequent visits to unfavorable media indicate the great calm that Jarosław Kaczyński's people have gained, along with their clear victory over the European Coalition and Konfederacja. There is also no doubt that this professional and composed tone was set for the party right from the start, from election night on Sunday – by President Kaczyński. He simply entered the next campaign on the march." -- THE SOONER THE OPPOSITION UNDERSTANDS THIS, THE SOONER THEY WILL COME UP WITH THE IDEA SCHETYNA IS LOOKING FOR - DĄBROWSKA'S CONCLUSION: "PiS needs distinctive figures, because they are more popular with the electorate than suit-wearing technocrats. And no matter how many jokes are made about this among European Coalition supporters, Janusz and Grażyna need them all to identify with someone. And this is not offensive to anyone. The sooner the opposition understands this, the sooner they will come up with the campaign idea that Grzegorz Schetyna has been looking for since Sunday." https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/190539968-Dabrowska-Prezes-zabral-PiS-owi-triumf.html -- THEY PROBABLY DID RECEIVE THE AWARDS FROM SZYDŁO AFTER ALL - GW'S LEAD STORY: "A year ago, the government promised a full list of ministers and high officials who were supposed to donate awards granted to them by Prime Minister Beata Szydło to Caritas. 151 people were awarded. Seven claim to have made donations. But only three Caritas branches confirmed the payments." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24846737,wyborcza-ujawnia-mimo-zapewnien-ministrowie-rzadu-szydlo.html -- JERZY HASZCZYŃSKI ON HOW ELECTION CAMPAIGNS DEstABILIZE POLAND-ISRAEL RELATIONS - writes in RZ: "Both countries are in a permanent state of election campaign mood. And this will intensify. The question is whether the emotions related to Poland in Israel and Israel and Jewish organizations in Poland will also intensify? They don't have to. Even if this happens, the black scenario will not necessarily materialize. Emotions are important, but if they do not translate into actions by politicians in power – do not lead them to issue any document – then they are unlikely to cause lasting damage to mutual relations." https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/190539919-Polska-Izrael-Wystarczy-jeden-nacjonalista.html -- GW ON THE PHENOMENON OF NON-ALCOHOLIC BEER (Leszek Kostrzewski): "Retail chains, fearing penalties, send inquiries to the National Agency for Alcohol Abuse Prevention asking if they can sell non-alcoholic beer to minors. The wives of abstinent alcoholics, in turn, ask if they should be afraid if their husband drinks 0% beer every day." http://wyborcza.pl/7,155287,24836002,mamy-najwieksze-wzrostu-sprzedazy-piwa-bezalkoholowego-w-europie.html -- 4 YEARS AGO - the founding convention of the Nowoczesna party led by Ryszard Petru took place at the Torwar hall in Warsaw. -- BIRTHDAYS: Viktor Orbán! Renata Butryn, Roman Pałac, Janusz Weiss.