state of play: 05/30/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Gładysiak: Tusk Was Supposed to Be the Opposition's Wunderwaffe, He Turned Out to Be a General from a Past War, Schetyna on the Right Track, Flis: A Party of the Smarter Than Average Cannot Gain a Majority, Leszczyński: Autumn of the Spring

Łukasz Mężyk

-- MICHALSKI'S BOOK - A RIVER INTERVIEW WITH SCHETYNA - PREMIERE ON FRIDAY, SZYMANSKI ON TUSK PROMOTING SZYDLO INSTEAD OF WOMEN FROM OTHER COUNTRIES - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/05/30/ -- PIS IS THE FOURTH PARTY IN THE EP - GPC FRONT PAGE. -- JERZY HASZCZYŃSKI ON POLAND NOT GETTING DRAGGED INTO CONFLICT WITH IRAN IN EXCHANGE FOR FORT TRUMP: “We must stick to the method used during the February conference. Act as America's super-ally, but don't go to war with Iran.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/190539994-Jerzy-Haszczynski-Fort-Trump-w-Polsce-i-operacja-Iran.html -- TUSK WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE WUNDERWAFFE, HE TURNED OUT TO BE A GENERAL FROM A PAST WAR - Jan Gładysiak on the Jagiellonian Club portal: “The political situation in the opposition camp is developing in Grzegorz Schetyna's favor. He has built a united camp, but he can easily blame Donald Tusk, who pushed the narrative towards an anti-clerical fixation, for the first election defeat. The President of the European Council, who was supposed to be the opposition's wunderwaffe, turned out to be a general from a past war, fighting not with whom he should and not how he should. The excited elite of the Third Polish Republic, still not understanding that PiS is no longer fighting PO, but has focused on regaining the PSL electorate and fighting for entirely new voters, enthusiastically applauded Tusk as he jabbed at Kaczyński at the University of Warsaw and later at the march in support of the European Coalition. -- IN GŁADYSIAK'S OPINION, SCHETYNA IS MANIPULATING THE OPPOSITION: “Schetyna is also manipulating the entire opposition. By sending SLD leaders to Brussels, he leaves this movement without well-known faces, because there is a chasm between the recognizability of Włodzimierz Czarzasty and the popularity of Leszek Miller or Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz. The PSL was never a threat to Civic Platform, so their fate in this year's contest is entirely indifferent to Schetyna. Spring lost its freshness effect in these elections, and it's hard to speak of a spectacular success comparable to the Palikot Movement or Modern. And the latter party has no future anymore.” -- SCHETYNA IS COMPLETELY SUBORDINATING THE PARTY - GŁADYSIAK FURTHER STATES: “After the autumn parliamentary elections, after which PO will still be the largest opposition force, Schetyna will have the party completely subordinate to him. If Tusk, who has just suffered a defeat, wanted to run against Andrzej Duda in the presidential elections, he would have to negotiate with Schetyna from a supplicant's position – someone has to put up millions for the campaign! It is unlikely that he will decide on such humiliation. For Tusk, it will be better to wait out the lean years for him in some lucrative international sinecure than to return to Polish politics. Only then will Schetyna be able to declare full internal victory and focus on fighting PiS for power.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2019/05/29/grzegorz-schetyna-idzie-po-zwyciestwo/ -- BOGDAN ZDROJEWSKI TELLS PIOTR ŚMIŁOWICZ THAT SLD WON THE EUROPEAN COALITION: “I said that SLD is the winner of this coalition a month and a half ago. I didn't say it by accident, because, firstly, I thought that if SLD ran alone, it might not get a mandate. Therefore, one can say that it was a coalition to reactivate SLD in its unfortunately old, un-rebuilt form. With activists who are quite advanced in age, although I don't hold that against them. It was not a forward-looking undertaking. As for the other elements of my diagnosis, I must verify them, and when I do, I will reveal the entire diagnosis. Without a doubt, we are dealing with a situation where the course of this coalition has ended, and we will know what a potential new coalition will look like quite quickly, as early as June.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/448814-zdrojewski-lekka-korekta-ke-nie-wystarczy-wywiad -- EARLY AUTUMN FOR SPRING? WHAT WENT WRONG FOR ROBERT BIEDRON'S PARTY? - ADAM LESZCZYŃSKI IN KRYTYKA: “Although the leader of Spring announced success, his party's election result was significantly lower than expected. What went wrong? From Spring's campaign staff, I hear: strange people on the lists, an inflexible campaign, promoting only those close to the leader. The party now faces difficult decisions. -- LESZCZYŃSKI ON THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF SPRING: “The organization must react better to crises, which will undoubtedly still occur. It cannot be that some scandal lasts in the media for several days, and the leader does not comment on it. I have enough years to know that every organization is dysfunctional in some way. There are internal conflicts and communication difficulties everywhere. However, Spring must act better – it cannot be that a politician causes a crisis, and then does not listen to the advice of experts on how to resolve it, thus jeopardizing not only his own chances but also the party. This is your only chance, ladies and gentlemen from Spring. Now or never.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/leszczynski-wiosna-co-nie-wyszlo-partii-roberta-biedronia/ -- THE SECRET TO PIS'S SUCCESS - KRZYSZTOF PACEWICZ IN GW - SOCIAL PROGRAMS, NOT DEFENSE OF THE CHURCH: “What is the source of PiS's mobilization success? Some claim it was about mobilizing the church electorate. Indeed, 72% of PiS voters believe that the image of the Virgin Mary with a rainbow aura offends their religious feelings (8% of EC voters), while on the other hand, as many as 65% believe that 'priests should not discuss political matters in their sermons.' When we ask if the scandal of pedophilia in the Church is 'artificially inflated,' 47% of PiS voters agree, but 44% do not. So, one can say that the issue of the Church evokes ambivalent reactions among Jarosław Kaczyński's party's electorate. What unites PiS voters is something else: as many as 88% of them support extending the 500 plus program to every child, and only 11% are against it. Therefore, we can hypothesize that social programs mobilized PiS voters more than the need to defend the Church. And what about the low mobilization of European Coalition supporters? Perhaps the multitude of coalition parties with different views and programs caused their voters to be unsure of what they were actually voting for. And ultimately, they stayed home.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24842050,dlaczego-sondaze-nie-pokazywaly-dominacji-pis-skad-sukces-partii.html -- DR JAROSŁAW FLIS ON THE CURSE OF THE LIBERAL UNION IN CONVERSATION WITH AGNIESZKA KUBLIK IN GW: “For example, the media fighting PiS constantly emphasized that young, educated, wealthy residents of big cities were voting for the European Coalition. This is an encouragement for all other residents to look for another party. And there isn't much choice. If someone is not a young, rich, educated resident of a big city, why should they vote for a party of people who believe that people like him vote for PiS, and implicitly, that they are worse? This is a trap that I have named the 'curse of the Liberal Union.' It consists of the fact that declaring that we will be a party of people smarter than the majority is asking to be in the minority. Because a party for the smarter-than-average cannot win a majority. The majority of European Coalition voters live in rural districts, so the EC should be happy that despite this message, someone from outside this young, rich, educated group from big cities wants to vote for them. It's simple arithmetic. The fact that big-city residents are more likely to vote for the European Coalition does not mean that the majority of the EC's voters are big-city residents.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24841712,opozycja-sama-sie-prosila-o-przegrana.html -- MACIEJ GDULA RECOUNTS HOW A LIBERAL JOURNALIST TOLD HIM: "WE WILL CRUSH YOU" - in conversation with Michał Wilgocki: “This is why Spring did not get teens of percent of votes, because the EC and Grzegorz Schetyna adopted an optical framework close to Kaczyński's: 'Join the strong, because only the powerful count.' This reduces the space for practicing a different kind of politics. One of the liberal journalists who interviewed me told me before going on air: 'We will crush you, you are small, you have no chance.' When this is the common definition of the situation, ultimately the one who is stronger wins, because they have the state. In this context, Grzegorz Schetyna and those who supported him are the architects of Kaczyński's success.” -- GDULA ON REPEATING THE SAME MISTAKES: “Seek innovative solutions, do not repeat old mistakes. Going into a broad autumn coalition is not a good idea; it will certainly hand over power to PiS. New solutions must be sought, e.g., returning to authentic diversity regarding positive visions of change. And to authentic identities. If we don't have this, PiS will always be one step ahead of us, it will always be more authentic. Although there is little time, there is no room for making the same mistakes.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24842060,maciej-gdula-nie-obowiazuje-juz-dogmat-ze-musimy-sie-wszyscy.html -- RESIGNATION MEANS A LOWER PIT - DGP FRONT PAGE ON CZERWIŃSKA'S DEPARTURE (Osiecki, Chądzyński): “Lowering the tax to 17% for everyone and extending the right to 'zero PIT for young people' to also cover work contracts – this will be the direct consequence of the Minister of Finance's departure.” -- DGP ON BANAS OR DIETL AT THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE: “We will know who it will be within a few days. According to our information, the option of the Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki taking over the ministry has been discarded. The approaching parliamentary election campaign means that such an important ministry will be staffed. It is to be a political appointment. If the choice were to fall on one of the current deputy ministers, it would be Marian Banaś. Other names also appeared, such as Jacek Sasin, who denies these suggestions, or the head of the WSE, Marek Dietl (he would be 'too little political').” https://gospodarka.dziennik.pl/podatki/artykuly/599016,dymisja-czerwinskiej-rekonstrukcja-rzadu.html -- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON KEEPING HIS FINGERS CROSSED FOR TOMASZ LIS: “Let's keep our fingers crossed. As long as Tomasz Lis is such an important figure there, the right wing's chances for another term are really high. I'm sorry, dear readers, but it cannot be avoided: the Polish right wing will have to erect some monument, at least a bench, for Lis someday.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/448811-jakis-pomniczek-bedzie-trzeba-kiedys-lisowi-postawic -- MAREK SAWICKI SAYS NO TO FURTHER COALITION WITH MODERN AND NOWACKA - in conversation with Zuzanna Dąbrowska in RZ: “Certainly, Modern and Barbara Nowacka's Polish Initiative should not be included in this coalition, because we will have a repeat of the European Parliament campaign, where economic and social issues were dominated by ideological matters. And PiS, perfidiously and shamelessly, stirred up an atmosphere of threat to the community and used these insertions.” -- SAWICKI ON THE LEFT-WING CIVIC PLATFORM: “But next to it was Robert Biedroń's Spring, and unfortunately, the left wing of the EC considered it a matter of honor to eliminate Spring and compete with it on its program. However, these matters should have been left to Biedroń. I thought that Civic Platform was, after all, a liberal-conservative party, but it turned out that in this edition, it is even more left-liberal than liberal-left.” -- SAWICKI ON THE EUROPEAN COALITION LEADERS' FEAR OF WKK: “This is the result of joining a large bloc and withdrawing our leader Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz to the second line. It is no secret who was the main core of the EC. Civic Platform leaders looked with reluctance at Kosiniak-Kamysz's polls and ratings. This is the last moment for him to feel like a leader who will gather centrist and agrarian-Christian democratic circles around the PSL.” https://www.rp.pl/Polskie-Stronnictwo-Ludowe/305299906-Sawicki-Nie-potrafilismy-w-KE-zmienic-przekazu-PiS.html -- GW ON THE FRONT PAGE ABOUT THE COMPROMISE OF THE HEAD OF THE NIE LĘKAJCIE SIĘ FOUNDATION: “Marek Lisiński, head of the Nie Lękajcie Się (Do Not Be Afraid) foundation, resigned after it became known that he defrauded money from a victim of a priest pedophile and demanded money from the Sekielski brothers.” http://wyborcza.pl/duzyformat/7,127290,24841387,marek-lisinski-szef-fundacji-nie-lekajcie-sie-wyciagal.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Jacek Czaputowicz, Karol Jene, Jacek Zdrojewski.

Łukasz Mężyk