state of play: 05/29/2019

STATE OF PLAY: KOD Deputy Head to the Elites: 'What Happened to This Nation?' You Ask? Nothing. You're Just Getting to Know It. Musiałek: Let's Call Things What They Are. This Isn't a Victory. It's a Rout. Zaremba on Dismantling the Polexit Narrative

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PRESIDENT INTERVENES IN GOVERNMENT OVER FREE COWS, CZARZASTY ON BABBLING IN TV STUDIOS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/05/29/ -- POST THAT WENT VIRAL ON THE OPPOSITION SIDE -- KOD DEPUTY HEAD MAGDALENA FILIKS ON FB: YOU DON'T KNOW THESE PEOPLE AT ALL, YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND ANYTHING: “I can't take it anymore. This is unbearable. I'm furious. I'm reading about ignorance, sellouts, provincialism, stupidity. I'm reading about people who follow the priest's lead. I'm reading terrible things. This is the real tragedy. And it seems to be written by those who consider themselves smarter, educated, and enlightened. You don't know these people at all. You don't understand anything. You don't know these villages and these municipalities and these towns. You clearly don't know the everyday problems of ordinary people in an ordinary world. In a world where the most common salary in this country is 2000 PLN. You speak so beautifully about dignity, about the excluded, about minorities. I've been listening to these social activists for several years, those fighting for women's rights. And I get the impression it's some damn theater. As if it were never really about the human being. And where are women's rights when we talk about Halina with four children, for whom 2000 PLN is precisely dignity, this is precisely women's rights!!! Because not just one Halina can now buy her child sneakers and a pineapple, and even a jacket for her son's communion and hair dye from the kiosk, so her neighbor can put it on.” -- WHAT HAPPENED TO THIS NATION? NOTHING. YOU'RE JUST GETTING TO KNOW IT: “What happened to this nation? you ask. Nothing. You're just getting to know it. Halina and Janusz, who bother you on the beach because they play music at full blast on a blanket next to you, enjoying their first holiday in years on the Polish seaside. And maybe we don't say it out loud, but we consider them second-class citizens. I am ashamed.” -- I APOLOGIZE TO MY FRIENDS WHO VOTED FOR PIS - FILIKS CONCLUDES: “You can unfriend me now. I don't care anymore. And to my friends who voted for PiS and whom I have among my friends on FB, I apologize. I am ashamed. https://www.facebook.com/magdalena.filiks.3/posts/2223069931119369 -- FORMER VOICE OF AMERICA JOURNALIST, MARIA BNIŃSKA ON FB IN A SIMILAR VEIN TO FILIKS: “Well, here it is, the downfall. I'm not surprised at all that PiS won and will win in the autumn. Because if someone had told me for almost 30 years that I was an illiterate, an idiot, had no taste (excuse me – aesthetic sense), was musically illiterate (because I listen to disco polo), knew nothing, was a provincial, a sacristy redneck, and so on – would I vote for the person saying such things about me? Or would I rather vote for the person who tells me I am the salt of the earth, that my values are national values, that my work is the most important, that my vision of the world is right?” https://www.facebook.com/1234mania -- THIS IS A ROUT, NOT A VICTORY - PAWEŁ MUSIAŁEK ON THE JAGIELLONIAN CLUB PORTAL: "Let's call things what they are. 45.38% is not a victory. It's a rout. (...) The European Parliament elections were supposed to be just a sparring match, a warm-up for the decisive battle. Although everyone said that whoever wins clearly will have an easier time in the autumn, no one really believed that the difference would be significant. Every insider predicted a draw, though with a leaning towards different sides. The warm-up turned out to be, in its consequences, the first half of the most important clash. No one suspected that the blow that would strike the European Coalition would be so strong that the wound might not heal by autumn. What's more – it's not certain if the patient will leave the hospital at all. The scale of PiS's victory is overwhelming, and the Coalition's loss to the leader is disheartening for its supporters.” -- PIS EMERGES AS THE PARTY THAT HAS COMPLETED THE TRANSFORMATION - MUSIAŁEK CONTINUES: “The answer is: PiS presents itself to its voters as the party that has finally completed the Polish transformation. To be precise: PiS has crossed the paradigm of effort that society must undertake to improve its fate. But to understand what we're talking about, one must momentarily detach one's thoughts from the here and now, to recall a not-so-distant past.” -- PIS'S OFFER WAS CREDIBLE BECAUSE IT PROVED THAT IF IT PROMISES, IT DELIVERS - MUSIAŁEK'S CONCLUSION: “Even more expensive promises did not help Robert Biedroń's Spring either. In this case, there was no effect, because both supporters and opponents knew that it was just window dressing. What truly keeps the former mayor of Słupsk and his electorate awake at night is Polish conservatism, not Polish poverty. So, PiS won the social race. Not only because its offer was high, but above all because it was credible. PiS has proven many times that if it promises, it delivers. PiS disappoints the elites, but not its voters. The elections showed that the vice versa.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2019/05/28/koniec-polskiej-transformacji/ -- KACZYŃSKI'S 'FIVE' WAS AN EFFECTIVE MOVE - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN DGP: “Kaczyński's 'Five' proved to be an effective move. It was well-timed in terms of pure social engineering, although its anti-developmental nature remains obvious to me. At the same time, the opposition partly played on the opponent's field, combining warnings against handouts with bidding wars of handout ideas. Would a different, bolder strategy of honestly confronting social populism have yielded more? That's another thing we don't know.” -- SCHETYNA'S CAMP HAS NEITHER VIRTUE NOR RUBLE TODAY - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “However, Schetyna's camp has neither virtue nor rubles today. And it is condemned to another few months of futile struggle: from what positions should PiS be attacked – even greater social demagoguery (and sometimes legitimate demands – education and healthcare truly deserve more) or budgetary responsibility.” -- ZAREMBA ON THE DISMANTLING OF THE POLEXIT NARRATIVE: “Of course, it could also be that this issue simply turned out to be less important for Poles. The premonition that they have fundamentally good socio-economic condition of Poland ingrained in their minds and this government's concern for the less fortunate turned out to be accurate. We don't know the exact list of priorities for PiS voters, including the half a million gained in these elections. We know that warnings about creeping authoritarianism or accusations of covering up child-abusing priests did not scare them, and the bogeyman of Polexit, abandoned by the opposition in the final phase of the campaign, was further dismantled with the participation of the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker.” https://forsal.pl/artykuly/1414782,zaremba-co-wiemy-po-eurowyborach-polska-wykonala-krok-w-kierunku-nowego-modelu-opinia.html -- THE MYTH OF THE LEFTWARD DRIFT OF THE POLISH SCENE HAS FALLEN - PIOTR TRUDNOWSKI FROM THE JAGIELLONIAN CLUB: “The myth of the supposed 'leftward drift' of the center of the Polish political scene has fallen. It – understood less as truly conscious voters with moderate views, but rather as voters with unspecified views on many issues – gave victory and a lead to the ruling party. At the same time, after the evident 'turn to the left' of the European Coalition, it is even clearer than before how strong the differences in electoral sensitivities are on worldview issues.” -- BUDAPEST IN WARSAW, BUT WILL THE SECOND TERM BRING PRO-DEVELOPMENT REFORMS? - TRUDNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Orban waited longer for his second, third, and fourth terms than he expected at the time. However, if Jarosław Kaczyński, and perhaps also Mateusz Morawiecki, still dream of 'Budapest in Warsaw,' then the second term, with a greater opportunity to implement socially unacceptable changes, is the essence of this dream. Today, it has a greater chance of coming true than ever before. The only question remains whether the second term will be enough to satisfy the ambitions of the United Right leaders. If not, there may never be a good time for truly pro-development reforms.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2019/05/27/duopoland-7-wnioskow-po-wyborach-do-parlamentu-europejskiego/ -- KE VOTERS DON'T WANT SCHETYNA - PIOTR PACEWICZ ON A POLL FOR OKO.PRESS: “The OKO.press poll confirms that the European Coalition has a leadership problem. Only 22% of KE voters name Grzegorz Schetyna as the best candidate for prime minister of an opposition government, while Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz is named by almost twice as many. With five opposition leaders available, as many as 50% of respondents answered 'none of these people.'” -- PACEWICZ ON THE RELATIVE POPULARITY OF KOSINIAK: “Although Kosiniak-Kamysz (born 1981) is five years younger than Biedroń, the percentage choosing him increased with age, from 11% among twenty-year-olds to 24% in the 60+ age group. The opposite is true for Biedroń: the indications fell from 22% to 7%. Among rural residents, Prime Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz was favored by 21%, the most among the opposition, but not much for a peasant politician. Within the European Coalition's electorate, Kosiniak-Kamysz was chosen nearly twice as often as Schetyna, although support for the PSL in polls is 5-6 times lower than for Civic Platform (e.g., in the February IPSOS poll for OKO.press – 4% vs. 24%).” -- PACEWICZ ON LACK OF TRUST IN SCHETYNA: “Grzegorz Schetyna (-2.59) is only better than Włodzimierz Czarzasty (-3.33) and Janusz Korwin-Mikke (-3.76).” https://oko.press/zadne-z-nich-najlepszym-kandydatem-na-premiera-z-opozycji-sondaz-potwierdza-kryzys-przywodztwa/ -- JACEK KARNOWSKI ON THE TRAP OF INTENSIFYING OPPOSITION EFFORTS: “The key to the opposition's future today lies in its ability to escape the trap of constant emotional and moral intensification and return to normal politics. It sounds simple, but how do you convince people – including those in the media – who can no longer live differently? This is not a matter that should not concern supporters of the ruling camp. The totality of the opposition not only harms itself; it also harms Poland greatly.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/448551-opozycja-ma-dzis-do-wyboru-3-drogi-ale-co-jedna-to-gorsza -- THE OPPOSITION LOST BY ITS OWN DESIGN - GW'S NUMBER ONE (Kublik, Szpala): “The same people who worked on Bronisław Komorowski's unsuccessful re-election campaign were almost entirely responsible for the KE's campaign. - The election headquarters? It was more like a social club,' a Civic Platform collaborator tells us.” -- YOU DON'T WIN ELECTIONS WITH PRESS CONFERENCES - SZPALA AND KUBLIK CONTINUE IN THEIR ARTICLE: “Since Schetyna cannot be replaced, work must be done on him himself – explains a Civic Platform MP. – Convincing him that you don't win elections with press conferences and conventions.” -- KOSINIAK AS PRIME MINISTER CANDIDATE? - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “For the politicians forming the European Coalition, the question remains whether there is still a possibility, time, and above all, political will to transform it into an efficient electoral mechanism, with a different, or more prominent leader, such as Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, designated as the future prime minister capable of competing with PiS in the autumn elections.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24838938,za-i-przeciw-koalicji-europejskiej.html -- THIS IS A CHANCE TO PROMOTE YOUNG POLITICIANS - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON RECONSTRUCTION: “And it is an opportunity for PiS to promote several politicians before the parliamentary elections. It's a chance to broaden the United Right camp's roster with new individuals who can be quickly promoted. It's also an opportunity to rejuvenate its ranks. Less known, younger PiS politicians will be able to prove themselves during this time, and the party will be able to decide if they are worth investing in.” -- SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON CLASSIST CONTEMPT: “Sooner or later, the opposition will understand that classist contempt towards PiS voters only mobilizes them to vote for the right and may change their tactics. Under these circumstances, the victory of Jarosław Kaczyński's party might prove demobilizing for its voters. 'Faith and tradition have been defended – the conservative masses might think – we have won, we can stay home.' And then PiS might fall victim to its own success.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/190529257-Szuldrzynski-Czy-PiS-padnie-ofiara-swojego-sukcesu.html -- PIS IS STARTING TO RESEMBLE A FAT CAT - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “Law and Justice, on the other hand, is behaving as if it did not anticipate the possibility of its own victory. The personnel are unprepared, the finance minister cannot wait for his dismissal, speculation is rife in ministries about who the new head will be, the government has no spokesperson… Or has the scale of the victory made PiS, like its PO colleagues, start to resemble a fat cat on a velvet cushion?” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/190529251-Zuzanna-Dabrowska-Polska-po-wyborach---krajobraz-po-ustawce.html -- THERE WAS NO PASSION, BECAUSE IT'S HARD TO DENY SCHETYNA THAT HE DID THE MOST AMONG HISTORICAL LEADERS OF LIBERAL CIRCLES - RZ EDITOR-IN-CHIEF BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA - I SAW PERFECT IMMOBILITY: “It's hard to deny the opposition leaders professionalism or commitment. Grzegorz Schetyna probably did the most among the historical leaders of liberal circles. He achieved the impossible. He united previously conflicting parties. He distributed seats on the lists in a way that was risky for his own formation. He achieved a lot, but he lost. Because there was no passion. When I observed the Civic Coalition's list leaders, I saw almost perfect immobility.” -- THE PRESIDENT ONLY PRETENDS TO GUARD INTERNET FREEDOM - CHRABOTA CONTINUES: “Will Jarosław Kaczyński's party, a great proponent of internet freedom, support online voting? I sincerely doubt it; it would be risky for maintaining the older electorate's advantage. The president only pretends to guard internet freedom. Nevertheless, we must consistently fight for this mechanism. Because the true support for democratic freedom would be to transfer political passion to the network. And this should be on the opposition's banner.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/190529309-Chrabota-Wszystko-zmieni-glosowanie-w-internecie.html -- PLATFORMA ADMITS TO BEING LEFT-WING - PROF. JAROSŁAW FLIS - in an interview with Wiktor Ferfecki in RZ: “In his 2011 exposé, delivered just after the first disturbances at the Independence March, he said that the government would defend Poles against extremes from the left and right. This allowed for a broad spread of influence. Currently, PO says: 'look, we are also left-wing,' which undermines Robert Biedroń but doesn't generate enthusiasm on the right wing. And during the Civic Platform's peak glory, half of its voters described their views as right-wing.” -- IT'S ABOUT TREATING PEOPLE FROM ABOVE, IF SOMEONE SHOWS THAT ALL THE IMPORTANT PEOPLE VOTE FOR US, THEN THEY SHOULD BE SURPRISED TO GET 38%: “It's about treating them from a position of superiority and the message from media unfavorable to PiS that young, educated residents of large cities vote for the European Coalition. It's hard to see this as anything other than an invitation for residents of smaller towns to look for another party. Let's remember that when Tusk achieved great success in 2007, he put a lot of effort into, among other things, showing in television debates that he was an ordinary Pole, unlike the big shot Jarosław Kaczyński. If someone now tries to show that all the important people vote for us, they should be surprised to get 38%.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/190529258-Jaroslaw-Flis-Jesienia-czeka-nas-rowna-walka.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Maciej Łętowski, Igor Chalupec, Tomasz Skory.

Łukasz Mężyk