state of play: 05/22/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Biedroń on Schetyna's Progressive Alibi, Fakt on Rosati's 5.5 Million and MEP Salaries, GW: Tusk Losing to PAD, WKK at 6%

Łukasz Mężyk

-- EUROPEAN COALITION LAUNCHES BIGGEST MOBILIZATION CAMPAIGN OF THIS ELECTION, A CAMPAIGN STAFFER TELLS US EVERY VOTE COUNTS - https://300polityka.pl/news/2019/05/22/13-okregow-i-5000-km-w-3-dni-koalicja-europejska-rusza-z-najwieksza-akcja-mobilizacyjna-w-tej-kampanii-sztabowiec-ke-wystepujemy-z-jasnym-przekazem-i-apelem-o-nierozdrabnianie-glosow-sondaze-poka/ -- SCHETYNA: WE ARE VERY CLOSE, THE FARMER THANKS THE PRIME MINISTER - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/05/22 -- ROSATI'S FATHER HAS 5.5 MILLION PLN, WERONIKA CAN SLEEP PEACEFULLY - Fakt's front page. https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/czym-kusi-europarlament/5fks4c5 -- TUSK WOULD LOSE TO DUDA, WKK HAS 6% - PRESIDENTIAL POLL BY KANTAR FOR GW, TOK FM AND GAZETA.PL: “According to research by Kantar for 'Wyborcza', Gazeta.pl, and TOK FM, Andrzej Duda would win the first round of presidential elections today with 41% of the vote. Donald Tusk would be second with 27% support, and Robert Biedroń third with 11%. In a hypothetical first round of presidential elections, Paweł Kukiz would rank fourth with 7% of the vote, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz would get 6%, Janusz Korwin-Mikke - 5%, and Adrian Zandberg would close the field with 1% support among respondents. If Duda and Tusk were to proceed to the second round, the incumbent president would defeat the former prime minister by a margin of 55% to 44%.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24811352,duda-wygrywa-z-tuskiem.html -- THANKS TO US, SCHETYNA WILL HAVE AN ALIBI IN THE FORM OF A PROGRESSIVE COALITION PARTNER - ROBERT BIEDROŃ IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “Thanks to us, Schetyna will have an alibi in the form of a progressive coalition partner. He will be able to blame us for everything that doesn't fit into their conservative program: 'It's because of Biedroń and his votes that I have to separate church and state, it's because of him that I have to introduce civil partnerships...' We will ensure this.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/biedron-rozdzial-panstwa-od-kosciola-to-kwestia-cywilizacyjna/ -- DR OF SOCIOLOGY FROM UW, ADAM GENDŹWIŁŁ, WRITES IN GW THAT THERE WILL BE A RECORD TURNOUT OF AROUND 40%: “All of this leads to predictions that in the upcoming European Parliament elections, we will witness a record turnout for this type of election and by Polish standards – there is a very high probability that over one-third of eligible voters, and even around 40%, will go to the polls.” -- KE WILL NOT ACHIEVE A SPECTACULAR RESULT FROM MOBILIZATION ALONE - GENDŹWIŁŁ FURTHER: “Based on political preference research, it can be suspected that greater mobilization of the urban electorate favors a better result for the European Coalition, although it should be remembered that among residents of the largest cities, there is also a significant portion of PiS supporters, and that residents of larger cities (66 cities with poviat status) constitute only 1/3 of eligible voters and about 40% of those voting in European elections (as was the case in the 2014 European Parliament elections). Therefore, the European Coalition will not achieve a spectacular result in the European elections if it relies solely on the extraordinary mobilization of the urban electorate.” -- ELECTIONS WITH MOBILIZATION POTENTIAL: “This year's European elections have significant 'signaling' potential for the domestic electoral arena, and citizens' responses to parties' calls to participate will be a natural starting point before the autumn parliamentary election campaign.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24811090,w-te-niedziele-frekwencja-bedzie-duza-komu-to-pomoze-a-komu.html -- MARCIN FIJOŁEK WRITES ABOUT THE DEMYTHOLOGIZED IMAGE OF TUSK AS A DEMIURGE: “But even that would be somehow politically understandable (though it would still demythologize Tusk's image as a political demiurge, planning several moves ahead); Donald Tusk's problem is that his words, his stepping out of his role, and his unequivocal campaign commitment to the Civic Platform have passed without much of an echo. Even if they manage to mobilize a part of the European Coalition's voters, PiS will likely also mobilize its base. The European Council President's theses have essentially caused no shock, have not reset the campaign, and have not even left a key mark on the final days of the election campaign. Poland and Poles are living with different issues. Tusk is also not helped by the phenomenon of chasing after successive issues that focus media attention for two, at most three days. In this dynamic, no words at any rally can set the agenda for even the final stretch, let alone have a greater impact.” -- TUSK NO LONGER HAS THAT POWER - FIJOŁEK FURTHER: “Of course, both on the right and among the European Coalition's voters, a certain myth of Donald Tusk persists, who, with his juggling and showmanship, can change the fate of campaigns and entire elections. For some, it's trauma and complexes; for others, fond memories and fervent longing. But the facts are that Tusk does not have that power today. Underestimating this politician is, of course, a mistake (his 'mobilization' abilities are still significant), but there is no need to overestimate him either. Especially since such ceilings above one's head are not broken quickly.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/447492-bez-przelomu-po-niedzielnym-marszu-ke-szklany-sufit-tuska -- AGATA KONDZIŃSKA IN GW WRITES THAT KACZYŃSKI WARNS GOVERNMENT POLITICIANS: “In the circles of power, there is also a conspiracy theory circulating that Ziobro is directly behind the publication in 'Wyborcza'. The reasons? The Minister of Justice has long been in conflict with the Prime Minister over influence within the government, and our article is partly based on prosecutorial files to which Ziobro has access. According to one of our sources, the Prime Minister's entourage is convinced that 'journalists received the files from Ziobro.' - Such information is also being fed to the party leader. With what effect? I don't know... – says one of our informants. Another even claims that both – Ziobro and Morawiecki – have been 'warned by party leader Kaczyński to stop waging war in the face of a common enemy.'” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24811329,teoria-spisku-w-pis-podejrzewaja-ze-ziobro-mogl-inspirowac.html -- GW EDITOR-IN-CHIEF ON THE FRONT PAGE ABOUT THE PRIME MINISTER'S CREDIBILITY: “The Prime Minister, twice found to have lied by a court during the local government campaign, should manage the remnants of his credibility more carefully. (...) Why did you sell part of the plot for PLN 190,000, and then buy back the same part of the plot from the same person for ten times the amount? What was the purpose of such a transaction?” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24811294,premierze-morawiecki-klamie-pan-czy-panska-zona.html -- JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ ON THE IMAGE PROBLEM OF PIS: “Both paint an enigmatic figure with extensive connections, often alien to the PiS environment. Neither indicates a violation of the law by Morawiecki, but both are an image problem for the Prime Minister and PiS. Morawiecki could turn out to be Kaczyński's biggest personnel mistake since Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz. And for the PiS leader's mistake, he could pay with the loss of power.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/190529838-Jacek-Nizinkiewicz-Morawiecki-wizerunkowo-szkodzi-PiS.html -- BIRTHDAYS: Elżbieta Chojna-Duch, Bogdan Święczkowski, Piotr Arak, Magdalena Wolinska-Riedi.

Łukasz Mężyk