state of play: 05/21/2019
POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Pacewicz: Government Support 7 Pts Higher Than for PiS; Nationalist on Szpala's Take on PiS's Situation: 'You Can't Keep Pushing Right-Wing Slogans Without Discouraging the Center'; Bieńkowska: 'Either the Euro or the Sidelined Tra
-- SCHETYNA LAUNCHES 'CLEAN HANDS' CAMPAIGN, KACZYŃSKI APPEALS FOR ELECTION PARTICIPATION - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/05/21/
-- KRZYSZTOF PACEWICZ ON PIX OF POPULARITY AMONG POLISH POLITICIANS IN TRUST SURVEY CONDUCTED BY MB FOR GW/TOK FM AND GAZETA.PL: “Despite this, it should be noted that PiS politicians outclass European Commission politicians in the trust ranking, while the EC minimally leads Law and Justice in the same survey. This difference likely stems from trust in the office of president or prime minister itself – trusting the prime minister doesn't mean I won't vote for his opponent. Jarosław Kaczyński is fourth in the trust ranking with 37% (though as many as 54% of Poles do not trust him), and fifth is Robert Biedroń (34%), the opposition politician who inspires the most trust. Donald Tusk is eighth with a rather low result of 32% – even lower than the support for the European Coalition in the same survey (36%).”
-- GOVERNMENT SUPPORTED BY 44%, UNSUPPORTED BY 47%, SUPPORT IS A FULL 7 POINTS HIGHER THAN FOR PIS: “In the survey, we also asked about attitudes towards Mateusz Morawiecki's government: 44% support it, and 47% of Poles do not support it. Support for the government is therefore 9 percentage points higher than support for PiS.”
-- PIS VOTERS DON'T WANT KORWIN - PACEWICZ FURTHER ON SURVEYS FOR GW/TOK FM AND GAZETA.PL: “If current trends continue until autumn, Confederation might replace Kukiz'15 in the Sejm as the only possible coalition partner for Law and Justice. However, as many as 68% of PiS voters have a negative attitude towards Confederation, and only 21% positive; the proportions are similar in the other direction – 70% of Confederation voters think poorly of PiS, and 30% well. So, while PiS voters might accept a coalition with Kukiz'15 – as 46% of them have a positive attitude towards this committee – a coalition with the disliked Confederation will be hard for them to swallow. This result also shows that it is difficult to imagine a significant percentage of the PiS electorate switching to Confederation.”
-- KE AND WIOSNA VOTERS SATISFIED WITH THE PROSPECT OF A JOINT GOVERNMENT: “If the parliamentary elections yield results similar to those predicted by our survey for the European elections, the only realistic post-election scenario will be a coalition government of the European Coalition with Wiosna. According to our survey, voters of both parties would be rather satisfied with such a coalition: 70% of KE voters have a positive attitude towards Wiosna, and 25% negative; in turn, 57% of Wiosna voters have a positive attitude towards the Coalition, and 33% negative. KE voters value Wiosna and vice versa, which also shows that both can still change their preferences, with the potential flow from the European Coalition to Wiosna being significantly greater than from Wiosna to KE. It may also be the case that some KE voters are closer to Wiosna in terms of views, but will vote for KE because their priority is to remove PiS from power.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24807713,sojusz-pis-z-konfederacja-wyborcy-by-tego-nie-chcieli-za-to.html
-- THE WIND HAS BEGUN TO BLOW IN THE OPPOSITION'S FAVOR - RAFAŁ KALUKIN ON THE SITUATION A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION: “Despite everything, it is possible to identify certain trends based on recent polls. Undoubtedly, the opposition is in a more comfortable situation. After the May long weekend, the wind suddenly began to blow in its favor. While until now it had been steadily losing a few percentage points to PiS, it has now made up the distance. Or it is making it up, as in the IBRiS poll, where the ruling party's lead has halved. Of course, the Sekielski brothers' film helped the European Coalition. And last Saturday, Donald Tusk finally gave it his unequivocal support. Without his strong and widely discussed speech, KE leaders would probably be explaining the unimpressive turnout at the march now. At the same time, the Coalition still cannot impose its main message. But fortunately, PiS has stopped doing that. Meanwhile, resonant topics introduced to public opinion by external actors now mostly favor the Coalition.”
-- THE COALITION'S VICTORY WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE WITHOUT A RELATIVELY HIGH RESULT FOR CONFEDERATION - KALUKIN CONTINUES: “Coincidentally, we are dealing with an unpleasant paradox. In the eyes of the average KE voter, figures like Braun, Korwin-Mikkego, or Berkowicz waving a kippah recently are probably more detestable than most of the PiS leadership. Meanwhile, as it seems, the Coalition's victory will not be possible without a relatively high result for Confederation (which takes 1-2% of votes away from the ruling party). And similarly, a declared PiS voter should now be strongly crossing their fingers for Biedroń's success. Regardless of what they think of him and what words they use to describe him daily. Such is the side effect of our polarized politics. Divided by an insurmountable demarcation line.”
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1793504,1,sondaze-na-finiszu-kampanii-kto-wygra-wybory.read?src=mt
-- PIS IS LOST AFTER THE SEKIELSKI FILM - ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “PiS's unclear response to the Sekielski brothers' film increases the European Coalition's chances of electoral success. PiS cannot give a clear answer to the question of whether the Sekielski film is worth watching, and whether the problems shown in it are serious and should prompt authorities to intervene.”
-- KE MANAGES THE ISSUE OF PEDOPHILIA SURPRISINGLY WELL - PAWŁOWSKI CONTINUES: “The European Coalition has so far managed the issue of pedophilia in the Church surprisingly well. Views on social issues, including the question of state-church relations, are very diverse within the KE. However, after the Sekielski film, the Coalition has managed to find a coherent and, equally importantly, clear narrative. Its politicians are calling for the establishment of an independent commission to address the problem of pedophilia in the Church.”
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/05/21/pawlowski-finisz-kampania-pis-koalicja-europejska-tusk/
-- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON PIS CAMPAIGN MISTAKES - THE DRUM WAS BEATEN TOO LOUDLY: “Here and there, the first complaints are also heard that the drum was beaten too loudly, thereby raising the bar and expectations for the upcoming EP elections. It has long been known that this particular vote is the most difficult for PiS in the entire electoral marathon – yet good surveys have lulled them into a false sense of security. However, this does not change the fact that the numbers are merciless: considering the specifics of these elections and their impact on future campaigns – the KE must win, and win big, to realistically think about regaining power in the autumn.”
-- FIJOŁEK ON THE PSL'S SITUATION: “If the PSL does not achieve spectacular success – which it is not showing signs of – the peasant party will run on its own in the autumn. On the one hand, this would weaken the opposition's forces (eliminating the unifying effect), but on the other hand, it would allow for at least a minimal attempt at independent breathing for the peasant party members. Frustration grows all the more as Grzegorz Schetyna invites increasingly radical leftist organizations to the coalition and makes increasingly sharp demands. This makes sense – it's about playing for Robert Biedroń's electorate, but it comes at the expense of the PSL. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz remains silent and does not oppose this, at most by boycotting some of the election rallies where Barbara Nowacka and other feminists play the leading role.”
https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/447369-kilka-plotek-z-sejmu-napiecie-na-ostatniej-prostej
-- PIS HAS NO MOVE - IWONA SZPALA ON CONFEDERATION: “– PiS has no move. It has built up a centrist electorate, leaned for a moment to save the right flank, and returned to the old track. You can't keep pushing right-wing slogans, for example, by passing a rescue act for 447, without alienating the center – comments a Confederation campaign staffer.
-- SZPALA ON HOW PIS REACTS TO CONFEDERATION: “Sakiewicz also informs club members that Confederation members are allies of the liberal left, Berlin, and Moscow (on the lists – TVP's "Wiadomości" regularly remind readers of this every few issues – they have a friend of the leader of the Night Wolves, 'an organization that carries the Russian imperial thought, but according to services, also constitutes a Russian reconnaissance and assault group'). Moreover, the troublemakers from Confederation want to set Poland against its greatest ally – the United States – and the Jewish diaspora. Sakiewicz warns that if a portion of right-wing voters shifts their support from PiS to Confederation, PO, SLD, and PSL will return to power. Samuel Pereira from TVP Info directly called Confederation 'the armed wing of the total opposition'.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24807742,reszta-partii-wszyscy-won-opowiesc-o-konfederacji-ktora-podgryza.html
-- WE ARE WAITING FOR THE TRIAL, WE WILL ASK EVERYTHING - JAROSŁAW KURSKI IN GW: “We also welcome the announced trial with satisfaction. We can hardly wait. We will risk believing that the Prime Minister will keep his word this time and will not quietly withdraw from the idea of a trial after the elections. We will be able to call witnesses, we will demand documents, we will ask Prime Minister Morawiecki questions that he has not wanted to answer until now.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24807691,premierze-morawiecki-czekamy-na-proces-zapytamy-o-wszystko.html
-- GW ON THE FACT THAT THE AMENDED PENAL CODE CHANGES ARE A SHODDY JOB - as written by Ewa Ivanowa: “What consequences will this cause? Enormous ones. The transitional provisions of the penal code amendment mandate that in cases of sentencing individuals who have committed a crime described in the current Article 200 § 1 of the Penal Code, involving leading a minor under 15 years of age into sexual intercourse, the newly enacted provisions will apply, resulting in their lack of criminal liability. What's more, according to criminal lawyers in Krakow, upon the law coming into force, all convictions for this type of offense will be expunged by operation of law, and perpetrators serving prison sentences will be released from correctional facilities.”
http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24808119,nowelizacja-kodeksu-karnego-miala-byc-walka-z-pedofilami-bedzie.html
-- THE PRESIDENT LEAVES UKRAINE - BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI IN GW.
-- JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI ON POLISH PROPOSALS FOR THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL: “This is the first such comprehensive proposal for reforms of the Union postulated by Poland since PiS came to power in 2015. The document, to which 'Rzeczpospolita' has gained access, addresses six challenges that, according to Warsaw, determine the future of a united Europe. These include migration and defense policy, protection of competition on the common market and building a single digital market within it, as well as halting climate change and strengthening the democratic legitimacy of Brussels. In total, it concerns several dozen proposed changes that would be included in the Union's strategic agenda for 2019–2024. EU leaders are to adopt it in June.”
-- KONRAD SZYMAŃSKI ON POLISH PROPOSALS BEING IN DEMAND IN THE EU: “Do these ideas have a chance to break through? – The postulates presented by Poland are widely supported by various coalitions of states. Regarding the single market, 17 prime ministers have come out in its defense. Another 13 countries have signed the Warsaw Declaration, referring in particular to the future of migration and defense policy. Fifteen countries belong to the group of friends of cohesion policy – assures Konrad Szymański, Minister for European Affairs, to 'Rzeczpospolita'.”
https://www.rp.pl/Unia-Europejska/305209920-Polska-na-ratunek-Unii.html
-- ELŻBIETA BIEŃKOWSKA SPEAKS WITH JAKUB BODZIONY IN KULTURA LIBERALNA ABOUT THE EU DEFENSE FUND: “I emphasize – we are not talking about a European army, but about European public procurement in defense matters. The fund consists of two parts – research and development, and financing of actual defense capabilities, i.e., the implementation of specific projects. Firstly, for such a project to receive support, several countries must be involved in its implementation. Secondly, there are bonuses for small and medium-sized enterprises, like Polish ones. And thirdly, and most importantly – member states will agree to all these projects. This is a huge opportunity for Polish companies to establish long-term cooperation with the largest companies in this market, and I hope this opportunity will not be wasted.”
-- WE HAD A CHANCE TO BE ONE OF THE KEY 3-4 COUNTRIES IN THE EU - BIEŃKOWSKA CONTINUES: “Poland was then perceived as a country that was building the Union. It was three years ago that they started calling us Eastern Europe, not Central Europe. Currently, we are considered a counterproductive country that is breaking up the Community. Of course, every country in the EU has its interests, but the French and Germans were able to effectively sell their arguments regarding posted workers and gather support. We couldn't even build a coalition of countries facing similar problems in this matter. This failure is a measure of how we are currently perceived and at what stage the 'getting up from our knees' process is. And just five years ago, we had a chance to be one of the key 3-4 countries in the European Union.”
-- WITHOUT THE EURO, WE WILL BE ON THE SIDELINES - BIEŃKOWSKA CONTINUES IN KL: “This is not about declarations, but about what the government does daily. The first draft of a separate euro zone budget has already been created, and if Great Britain leaves the Union, 85 percent of the Union's budget will be generated by countries with a common currency. We will say that we are all in one Union, but it is clearly visible that without the euro, we will find ourselves on the sidelines.
https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/05/21/bienkowska-bodziony-wybory-europejskie/
-- ADRIAN ZANDBERG SPEAKS WITH MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI ABOUT THE ROLE OF THE GERMAN EMBASSY DURING THE PO GOVERNMENT: “I have no illusions about what politics was like under Civic Platform and what role the Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany played then. But it seems that PiS promised a change, something different. Sovereignty is not about Beata Szydło shouting at MEPs. Sovereignty is about making choices in the interest of one's own country. A health minister standing at attention before the American embassy is not subjectivity.”
-- ZANDBERG ON PROPOSALS REGARDING DRUG POLICY AND TAKING IT AWAY FROM CORPORATIONS: “Of course, this cannot be done alone. Poland will not be sovereign if it cannot cooperate. Because it is easier to stand up together, as is also evident in the matter of medicines. That is why we propose shortening the period of market exclusivity for medicines, launching joint research and joint production of medicines, so that everyone in Europe has access to free prescription drugs. You asked about federalization at the beginning: I am interested in specific shared policies that are lacking today. Those that change something in people's lives.”
-- ZANDBERG: THE ANTIDOTE TO GERMAN EUROPE IS DEMOCRATIC EUROPE: “I agree with the right-wing that a Europe ruled by a super-Germany is a real problem. The potential of the German economy and the number of Germans create an imbalance. This sometimes ends badly – for example, by shifting the costs of the euro zone's functioning onto the semi-periphery countries. But the answer is not to act as Donald Trump's aircraft carrier. Especially since Trump will sell this aircraft carrier for rubles at the first opportune moment. Do we want to rein in the Germans? Let's make a deal with the Southern European countries, which have similar concerns about German dominance as we do. We can build coalitions with Scandinavian countries, which understand the challenges of Eastern policy very well. Instead of building such cooperation, PiS has wasted four years on senseless squabbles, petty arguments, and unrequited declarations of love towards Viktor Orbán. Do we want to rein in the Germans? Then let's strengthen the European Parliament. The antidote to German Europe is democratic Europe, not a return to the fantasies of a 19th-century nation-state.”
https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/zandberg-eurowybory-polperyferia/
-- FAKT ON HOW JOANNA SCHEURING-WIELGUS GAVE AWAY TWO DOGS TO A SHELTER FOR HER OWN CONVENIENCE: ‘Can one be an animal activist and at the same time give their dogs to a shelter? MP Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus (47) managed to reconcile these contradictions. Fakt has established that the politician, who is running for the EP on the Wiosna ticket, discovered she was allergic to her two female dogs over two years ago, so she gave them to a sanctuary. And then... she fought for animal welfare under the same shelter! Czarna and Mamba, Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus's two lovely female dogs, ended up in a shelter in Toruń at the end of 2016. – She had a house with a garden, but couldn't afford to pay off her loan, so she moved into an apartment. She probably just didn't want to take care of them – a person from the MP's circle tells us.”
https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/scheuring-wielgus-oddala-psy-do-schroniska/11n9w5z
-- AT THE FINISH LINE OF THE CAMPAIGN, PIS NOTICED THE DISABLED - the leading story of Gazeta Pomorska.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Wiesława Ziółkowska, Lucjusz Nadbereżny, Marta Patena, Małgorzata Serafin, Piotr Mościcki.
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