state of play: 04/17/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Kantar for GW: 58% for abortion on demand, 50% for registered partnerships, 18% for adoption; Kantar for Polityka: Record 21% undecided; DGP: The whole nation pays for "Piątka"; Skwirowski: Voters will retaliate for tax hikes

Łukasz Mężyk

-- JANINA OCHOJSKA ANNOUNCES IN A MOVING STATEMENT THAT SHE IS BATTLING BREAST CANCER: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/04/17

-- WPROST AT THE BOTTOM - PRESS PRESENTS READERSHIP FIGURES: "The last place in the ranking was taken by the weekly 'Wprost' (PMPG Polskie Media) – 14,172 copies (a decrease of 8.40 percent), which was overtaken by 'Przegląd' (Fundacja Oratio Recta) – 15,571 copies (a decrease of 6.59 percent)." https://www.press.pl/tresc/57018,_przeglad_-wyprzedzil-_wprost_-pod-wzgledem-sprzedazy?rss=1

-- SURPRISING KANTAR POLSKA POLL FOR POLITYKA: 21% UNDECIDED, 35% FOR PIS AND ONLY 23% FOR EUROPEAN COALITION - LUKSZ LIPINSKI DISCUSSES: "PiS has 35 percent support, and the European Coalition has 23 percent – according to a Kantar Polska poll for 'Polityka' weekly."

-- THE OPPOSITION ALLIANCE IS STARTING TO LOSE CONTACT WITH THE RULING PARTY - WRITES LIPINSKI: "The opposition alliance is beginning to lose contact with the ruling party. According to the latest Kantar Polska poll for 'Polityka' weekly, PiS can count on 35 percent of the votes in the May European Parliament elections. The ruling party has a clear lead over the European Coalition (Civic Platform, PSL, SLD, Nowoczesna, and Greens), which has 23 percent support."

-- WIOSNA AT 8%, KUKIZ AT 6%, KONFEDERACJA AT 5% - CONTINUES KANTAR POLSKA FOR POLITYKA: "Chances of entering the European Parliament are also held by: Robert Biedroń's Spring with 8 percent, Kukiz'15 with 6 percent, and Konfederacja (Janusz Korwin-Mikke and nationalists) with 5 percent. Other committees, including the Together Party and Robert Gwiazdowski's so-called Non-partisan Local Government Officials, are not significant at all – they have at most 1 percent support. A rather large percentage of respondents declaring their intention to vote remain undecided when it comes to choosing a committee – as many as 21 percent."

-- 24 SEATS FOR PIS, 16 FOR EC, 5 FOR SPRING? - CONTINUES LIPINSKI: "Such an election result would mean, according to 'Polityka's' calculations, that PiS could win 24 seats in the European Parliament, the European Coalition – 16, Spring – five, Kukiz'15 – four, and Konfederacja – two (assuming that Brexit does not occur before the elections and Poland retains its 51 seats for MEPs). If, on the other hand, we were to assume, although this is a significant simplification, that parties and coalitions would achieve a similar result in the autumn parliamentary elections, PiS would likely be a dozen or so votes short of an independent majority, but Jarosław Kaczyński would only need one coalition partner to form a government."

-- THE COALITION'S ELECTORATE IS DRIFTING TO THE UNDECIDED RANKS - LIPINSKI'S THESIS - FOR SOME REASON THEY BECAME DEMOBILIZED: "Comparing the poll for 'Polityka' with other surveys, however, we can draw several general conclusions. First and foremost, it appears that support for PiS is holding steady, while the European Coalition's electorate is drifting away, swelling the ranks of undecided voters. In many polls, the ruling party and the opposition have been neck and neck until recently, and the percentage of undecided voters was negligible, but this is now changing. This means that the European Coalition's voters have become demobilized for some reason, which is crucial in Polish politics. Party crossovers in the country are negligible, and campaigns largely involve mobilizing one's own base and demobilizing the opposing camp's voters."

-- METHODOLOGY OF KANTAR FOR POLITYKA: "CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) survey conducted by Kantar Polska on behalf of 'Polityka' from April 11-12, on a nationwide, representative sample of 1000 residents of Poland aged 18 and over." https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1789974,1,koalicja-europejska-daleko-w-tyle-za-pis.read -- SUPPORT FOR THE RIGHT TO ABORTION ON DEMAND IS GROWING - KANTAR POLL - DESCRIBED IN GW BY KRZYSZTOF PACEWICZ: "As the Kantar poll for 'Wyborcza' shows, as many as 58 percent of Poles believe that 'women should have the right to abortion on demand up to the 12th week of pregnancy.' Only 35 percent of respondents are of the opposite opinion. The margin of supporters for the right to terminate a pregnancy on demand is similar across society: among women, men, people of all ages and education levels, among the richer and poorer, as well as among residents of villages, towns, cities, and metropolises."

-- EVEN 30% OF PIS VOTERS ARE FOR THE RIGHT TO ABORTION: "The only major group that does not support the right to abortion are PiS voters – although even among them, as many as 33 percent are in favor (59 percent against). Among European Coalition voters, 71 percent support the right to abortion on demand (19 percent against), and among Spring voters, a record 92 percent are in favor."

-- 50% FOR REGISTERED PARTNERSHIPS, BUT ONLY 18% FOR ADOPTION: "In our poll, we also asked about the rights of homosexual couples to enter into registered partnerships, marry, and adopt children. Regarding registered partnerships, we observe a slight advantage of their supporters over opponents: 50 percent of Poles are in favor, and 46 percent are against. In the case of marriage, the proportion reverses – 55 percent are against, and 41 percent are in favor. Only 18 percent of Poles support the right of homosexual couples to adopt children, while a significant 79 percent are against."

-- YOUNG POLISH WOMEN ARE THE VANGUARD OF LIBERALISM - PACEWICZ CONTINUES ON KANTAR FOR GW: "One group stands out from the rest in its liberalism: young Polish women aged 18-30 living in cities with over 100,000 inhabitants. Among the representatives of this group, 78 percent support the right to abortion on demand, and only 21 percent are against. As many as 82 percent are in favor of the right of homosexual couples to enter into registered partnerships (16 percent against), 64 percent are in favor of the right to marriage (34 percent against), and almost half – 45 percent – are in favor of the right of homosexual couples to adopt children (50 percent against). When we ask about their political views, they most often choose the answer center-left (27 percent) or left-wing (21 percent). As for the electoral preferences of young women from larger cities, the European Coalition, with 34 percent support, minimally leads Spring with 33 percent. PiS receives only 11 percent."

-- METHODOLOGY OF THE KANTAR POLSKA SURVEY FOR GW: "Kantar poll for 'Gazeta Wyborcza', April 4-9, 2019, CATI, sample of 1.6 thousand people, representative of the population aged 18+" http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24670637,sondaz-wyborczej-rekordowe-poparcie-dla-prawa-do-aborcji.html

-- THE WHOLE NATION PAYS FOR "PIĄTKA" - DGP'S FRONT PAGE.

-- PIS'S "PIĄTKA" IS TIGHTENING THE SCREWS IN SOCIAL SECURITY AND TAXES - TITLE IN RZ.

-- EVERYONE WILL PAY FOR PIS'S "PIĄTKA" - RZ FRONT PAGE: "The ZUS contribution limit will disappear, and the self-employed will pay higher taxes – the government will reach deeper into citizens' pockets. Thus, the idea of eliminating the ZUS contribution limit is to be reinstated. This means that individuals with annual earnings exceeding 30 times the average wage, currently over PLN 142.9 thousand, will lose the exemption of this portion of their income from pension and disability insurance contributions. This will take effect from 2020. It is expected to generate up to PLN 5.2 billion annually for the state budget."

-- THE DEFICIT WILL NOT INCREASE - WE READ IN RZ: "Many economists expected these promises to cause the public finance deficit to rise to 3% of GDP, and moreover, an important fiscal rule would be broken. However, the government has shown the opposite. In 2019, the deficit is indeed expected to increase to 1.7% of GDP from 0.4% of GDP in 2018, but a surplus of 0.2% of GDP is projected for 2020. Admittedly, this surplus assumes no 13th pension payment in 2020. Additionally, one-off revenues are expected to have the main impact on such a good result, but even without them, the deficit is projected to be 0.9% of GDP, which is not much." http://archiwum.rp.pl/artykul/1401453-Za-%E2%80%9Epiatke%E2%80%9D-PiS-zaplaca-wszyscy.html

-- THE GOVERNMENT MUST COUNT ON VOTERS REVENGE AT THE POLLS FOR TAX INCREASES - PIOTR SKWIROWSKI IN RZ: "And the government is now presenting taxpayers with a bill for what they have received or will receive as part of the 500+, Emerytura+, or Krowa+ programs, which were already largely financed by credit. It must reckon with the fact that voters will retaliate with tax increases at the polls in the autumn."

-- SKWIROWSKI POINTS OUT THAT THE CONVERGENCE PLANS SENT TO BRUSSELS DO NOT MENTION ANOTHER 13TH PENSION FOR RETIREES: "In the confession that the government is sending to Brussels, there is no mention of such a benefit being paid in subsequent years. In total, this adds up to a substantial sum, and that's not all, because the government has already introduced, for example, a solidarity tax and abandoned the promised VAT reduction. https://www.rp.pl/Blogi/304169919-Wszyscy-zaplacimy-za-prezenty.html

-- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON THE HYPOCRISY OF THE ELITES REGARDING TEACHERS: "This time, the boundaries of hypocrisy are again being crossed every day. TVN weeps over the fate of teachers, broadcasts their protest songs. Excuse me, for how many years has this station been brainwashing people? When did it remember this professional group? However, TVN is a mere infant compared to 'Polityka' weekly. And now this publication features on its cover the lament of a teacher from the film 'Day of the Wacko,' about how poorly he is paid. So I'll ask again: a film from 2002, did 'Polityka' not see it before? Did it not concern itself with the fate of teachers under Prime Ministers Miller, Belka, and Tusk? And didn't another publication, managed by Mr. Lis, create a dozen covers and hundreds of articles about how poorly schools are preparing us young people? We were supposed to have a generation of egoists and idiots grow up, and now such a sudden change of front?"

-- THE TURBOLIBERALS WANT TO FOOL POLES WITH THEIR SENSITIVITY AGAIN - KARNOWSKI'S CONCLUSION: "And most importantly – we must state that environments that have never cared about the welfare of groups like teachers in practice (the vast majority of the Third Polish Republic's existence) are now standing up for the supposed well-being of teachers. And they won't care. The only thing from their promises they will fulfill is the liquidation of voivodeship offices, the Central Anticorruption Bureau, the Institute of National Remembrance, TVP, and state-controlled companies. They will leave no stone unturned. Just as hundreds of schools were left after their rule. But who will remember that? Politics, ladies and gentlemen, is being made here, with a capital 'P.' The turboliberals want to fool Poles with their 'sensitivity' again. And it is up to the Poles to choose whether they will be fooled. https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/442944-w-sprawie-nauczycieli-iii-rp-batozy-sama-siebie

-- MONEY DOWN THE DRAIN - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: "The government needs money because Jarosław Kaczyński panicked after the 'two towers' affair that he would lose the elections. The senseless project of PLN 500 for the first child is only a result of Jarosław Kaczyński's panic, who was discredited by the story of the Srebrna company's two towers and PLN 50,000 in an envelope for Father Rafał Sawicz. Therefore, he decided to do something spectacular. Morawiecki's lack of independence is frightening; he couldn't stand up to the PiS leader, even though he knows there are more important needs in the country." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24669154,rozbior-ofe-kasa-w-bloto.html

-- ARROGANT LIKE POWER - JUSTYNA SUCHECKA IN GW: "Yes, teachers in their dispute with the government are raising the demand for raises. The law on resolving collective disputes formally gives them no other option but to strike on employment matters, i.e., pay. But what led to the strike is not just a matter of salaries. While teachers were and still are divided on the assessment of the liquidation of junior high schools, they are quite unanimous that for the last three years, no one from the government has taken them seriously in discussions. Arrogance of power – this is what I hear from them most often. Increasingly loudly, since the strike really began. A round table could change this atmosphere, but if it had happened about three years ago. Will it bring any concrete results now? It's hard for me to believe." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24670592,pyszni-jak-wladza-czyli-dlaczego-premier-morawiecki-krytykuje.html

-- KONKRET24 CHECKED AN OLD QUOTE FROM MORAWIECKI PROVIDED BY PETRU: "Ryszard Petru posted a video on his social media profiles which was supposed to prove that in 2013, the then-president of the bank, Mateusz Morawiecki, 'spoke very differently about the euro.' However, it is worth listening to the entire statement, as well as those of other panelists, to present its full and correct context." https://konkret24.tvn24.pl/polityka,112/czy-premier-szesc-lat-temu-byl-za-przyjeciem-euro-nie-to-cytat-wyrwany-z-kontekstu,927934.html

-- DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ ON THE RIVALRY WITHIN LISTS BASED ON PHOTOS OF ŁUKACIJEWSKA WITH TUSK AND SKOWROŃSKA WITH SCHETYNA: "Krystyna Skowrońska and Elżbieta Łukacijewska are clashing in Podkarpacie, and – as can be seen – the fight for photos has already begun. In the corridors of Civic Platform, it is said that this is no accident and that Grzegorz Schetyna deliberately placed both ladies on the same list. 'He gave space to the PSL. Their candidate has a weak position there; if our girls fight a bit, Siekierski will have a better chance, and if he wins a seat, Władek will be in a better position at home and more willing to talk in the autumn,' we hear from Civic Platform politicians." https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/wrog-wrog-smiertelny-kolega-z-listy-rusza-bratobojcza-walka-o-miejsca-w/g3dgc9r

-- BIRTHDAYS: Marcin Święcicki, Adam Gierek, Paweł Śpiewak, Robert Gliński, Michał Wójcik.


Łukasz Mężyk