state of play: 04/16/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Burzyńska on Pawlak's Return Scenario and Alliance with PiS, Szułdrzyński: PiS is Trying to Charm with a Different Tune on the Teachers' Protest. It Smacks of Falsehood So Far, Nizinkiewicz: The Opposition is Reactive

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SZYDŁO ON THE ROUND TABLE WITH OPPOSITION PARTICIPATION, CIMOSZEWICZ ON HIS CAREER IN THE PRL: WITH A DOCTORATE, I RAISED PIGS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/04/16/

-- AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO ON THE OBSESSIONS TRIGGERED BY THE BURNING OF NOTRE DAME: “However, the Polish right-wing knows its own mind. Interpretations of the event related to various obsessions were immediately put into motion. The burning cathedral ignited imaginations, where even accidents are blamed on the 'civilization of death.' The culprit for the fire turned out to be primarily 'secularization,' and furthermore, 'sick' secularization. Particular significance was attached to the fact that the fire occurred during Holy Week, preceding the Christian Easter holidays. Muslims couldn't be left out either.” https://oko.press/pozar-katedry-notre-dame-straz-prawdopodobnie-wypadek-polska-prawica-na-pewno-laicyzacja/

-- AGNIESZKA BURZYŃSKA ON SCHETYNA'S BLACK FEAR OF A COUP IN PSL AND PAWLAK'S RETURN - writes in Fakt: “PO chairman Grzegorz Schetyna fears that after the European elections, a coup will occur within PSL, meaning the overthrow of Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the peasant party's independent run in the Sejm elections, and then... a PiS-PSL coalition! The fear is so great that Schetyna is trying to strengthen PSL at all costs. Even at the expense of his own people.”

-- BURZYŃSKA IN FAKT ON THE MOOD IN PSL: “If there's only one seat, they'll carry Władek. Pawlak, Sawicki, and Kłopotek are already waiting in the starting blocks to hold him accountable for what they consider a foolish decision to join the European Coalition,” a key PSL politician tells us. He adds that Schetyna is right that those eyeing Kosiniak-Kamysz wouldn't have a big problem forming a coalition with PiS after autumn. Is such a scenario possible? Well, the risk of PSL's defeat in the European elections is high. The Peasants can only be sure of one mandate in Mazovia, for Jarosław Kalinowski. The rest is a lottery. That's why, when arranging the lists, Schetyna decided to strengthen PSL candidates at the expense of his own. This is most evident in Lublin. In this district, Krzysztof Hetman from PSL is number one. Joanna Mucha from PO is a strong second. Only one seat is available. Meaning, either Hetman or Mucha. To increase the chances of the former, Schetyna placed strong PO candidates in the subsequent positions. 'All this is to scatter votes for PO among several candidates so that Mucha doesn't manage to overtake Hetman,' admits a PO leader's associate.” https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/agnieszka-burzynska-o-lekach-grzegorza-schetyny/3f462nq

-- DOES PIECING TOGETHER THE CONSTITUENCY CAMPAIGN (PIĄTKA) NOT WORK WELL? - FURTHER FROM PAWŁOWSKI: “Secondly, and more importantly, however, much indicates that Kaczyński's 'piątka'... isn't working particularly well. Announced at the end of February, it hasn't brought about any shifts in the polls. True, PiS still maintains a slight lead over the European Coalition, but no surge in percentage support is visible. Considering that the ruling party has just offered voters a transfer of PLN 40 billion (!) including another PLN 500 for the first child, the polling effects are dramatically weak. The electoral effects could be even weaker.”

-- THERE IS NO SIMPLE ANSWER WHY PIS STILL HAS 40% - FURTHER FROM PAWŁOWSKI: “Of course, it's possible that increased mobilization will affect supporters of both PiS and opposition parties equally. However, observing the nervousness of the ruling party, I have serious doubts about this. And a significant increase in turnout could cause today's polls to be wrong, and to PiS's detriment. Recent political history already knows such cases – the last one was Rafał Trzaskowski's victory in the Warsaw mayoral elections in the first round. However, the most important question: why – despite such inconsistent political messaging and stumbles – PiS still has nearly 40 percent support in the polls, there is still no simple answer.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/04/16/pawlowski-pis-opozycja-sondaze-popularnosc/

-- ON THE DAMAGING REACTIVITY OF THE OPPOSITION - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “Poles. It's another matter that this tactic works! The authorities are once again managing to set the topic of discussion. Despite the repetitive and predictable pattern, the opposition remains helpless against PiS's narrative. The European Coalition and Wiosna are dancing to PiS's tune. A few weeks before the European elections, this is a success for the government. The question is, how long will the opposition remain in a state of blissful, reactive lethargy?” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/304159921-Nizinkiewicz-Zgubna-reaktywnosc-opozycji.html

-- PAWEŁ WROŃSKI ON THE OPPOSITION'S PROBLEM WITH ITS PROGRAM AND WIOSNA'S "NICENESS": writes in GW: “However, did the opposition manage to capitalize on this conflict? Not at all. One can understand Platforma and PSL being afraid to politically engage on the side of the teachers, so as not to increase the hatred towards teachers and not to provide justification for PiS's propaganda thesis that the idea of the strike originated in Grzegorz Schetyna's office. But for Robert Biedroń – whose Wiosna is still vying for public affection and appealing to young people, and it is young teachers who are the driving force of the protest – this should have been electoral fuel. Meanwhile, Wiosna is still immersed in advertising its nationwide program of 'niceness,' which is supposed to be the primary reason people should vote for this party. It says little about teachers, just as it says little about the LGBT+ card in Warsaw and minority rights, which seemed to be its theme.”

-- THE OPPOSITION HAS NOT PRESENTED AN EDUCATIONAL PROGRAM - FURTHER FROM WROŃSKI: “What's worse, during the strike, neither the European Coalition, nor Robert Biedroń's Wiosna, nor Kukiz15, nor the far-right Konfederacja presented any educational program that would help resolve the situation. They didn't say why they could solve this situation better. The opposition also did not demand a place at the round table discussion organized by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki at any of their conventions, where they should sit if they expect to take power. Or perhaps the truth is simple, and they have nothing to say about Polish education?” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24663259,to-dobrze-ze-opozycja-ma-dobry-program-szkoda-tylko-ze-nikt.html

-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ ON THE FALSE NOTE OF PIS: “On Monday, his party even launched a special campaign with the message that if you vote for PiS, Poles' standard of living will equal the European level. But – and here's the false note – this doesn't apply to teachers who are currently protesting, demanding an increase in their earnings. The government, however, firmly rejects their demands, saying there is no money in the budget for raises.”

-- TAXES HELPED THE PLATFORM AS MUCH AS INCENSE HELPS A DEAD MAN - FURTHER FROM SZUŁDRZYŃSKI: “The campaign idea for a tax revolution then helped the Platform as much as incense helps a dead man. The question is whether PiS is making the same mistake today, performing several different campaign tunes simultaneously. Trying to charm with a different tune on the teachers' protest at the same time. So far, it smacks of falsehood.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/304159912-Szuldrzynski-Podatkowa-gra-na-wielu-fortepianach.html

-- ADAM LESZCZYŃSKI ON THE PROBLEM THE MIDDLE CLASS HAS WITH THE TEACHERS' STRIKE AND WHY LIBERALS ARE SUSPICIOUS OF THEM - writes in KP: “The middle class and liberal media have a problem with the teachers' strike. They only support it because it hurts PiS. But suspicion towards the freeloaders from the public sector and fear for the 'good of the children' – and actually for their own status – keeps coming up. Liberals therefore support the teachers' strike, but at the same time, the idea that it is still a 'demanding' (I like that word, it reminds me of the 90s) social group that doesn't want to submit to the criterion of efficiency, but acts according to the old-fashioned idea of professional solidarity, which the middle class in Poland has already forgotten, keeps nagging at the back of their minds.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/leszczynski-dlaczego-liberalowie-nie-lubia-nauczycieli/

-- IF PIS WANTS A DEBATE ON EDUCATION REFORM, WHAT HAVE THEY BEEN DOING FOR 3 YEARS? - QUESTIONS FROM PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO: “It's time for a debate on real reform. What has PiS been doing for three years? Morawiecki announced that 'the time has come for an education reform to be needed. I believe that the round table will be a new beginning.' The prime minister can surprise, but this time he's gone very far. The third year of a giant 'deform of education' is underway, which PiS announced as a cure for the system and a perfectly prepared fix for education.

How to reconcile this with the statement that 'the time has come' for a new major reform? Will it be conducted alongside or instead of the current one?

Will it deepen the 'deform,' which, apart from the liquidation of junior high schools and shortening general education to eight years, has pushed the school back towards the traditional model of transmitting even more information from even more subjects?

How can we debate a new reform with those who are currently completing the old one, resulting in enormous confusion, the peak of which will be the influx of two age groups into post-primary schools in September 2019?” https://oko.press/preludium-morawieckiego-zwiazkow-podpiszcie-cyrograf-a-potem-debatujmy-o-glebokiej-reformie/

-- SŁAWOMIR BRONIARZ TELLS KULTURA LIBERALNA WHY THE STRIKE CONCERNS SOCIAL CONDITIONS: “The strike cannot concern the elements I mentioned, because then someone would accuse us of it being illegal. According to the law, a collective dispute can concern: working conditions, wages, social benefits, and union rights and freedoms of employees. The ZNP's demands fall within the legal requirements. If we close this wage element, state expenditure on education, which goes to local governments for running schools and kindergartens, will increase. Then we will also stop discussing the problem of negative selection into the teaching profession. Then there will be time to debate these broader issues. First, we must ensure teachers a minimum of comfortable working conditions in the profession, so that we can talk about the need to rebuild the school. Because the majority of teachers, and certainly the leadership of the Union, speaks about the need for such a change.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/04/16/slawomir-broniarz-wywiad-strajk-nauczyciele/

-- KONKRET24 CHECKS THE TABLE FROM PO AND SUPER EXPRESS REGARDING PRICE INCREASES AND COMPARES IT TO GUS DATA: https://konkret24.tvn24.pl/polska,108/czy-czeka-nas-wielkanocna-drozyzna-tak-wedlug-po-nie-wedlug-gus,927738.html

-- THE MANEUVER IS GENIUS BECAUSE THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE ABLE TO SPEND MONEY FROM OFE IMMEDIATELY - MACIEJ SAMCIK: “Instead of a 'commission' in the form of transferring 25% of the balance accumulated in OFE to the Demographic Reserve Fund, we have a different commission – a 15% transformation fee. Paid directly to the state budget. The maneuver is ingenious in its simplicity because the government will be able to spend the money from the transformation fee immediately. And there will be something to spend it on – perhaps with this money – de facto the money of future retirees – to finance generous election promises.”

-- SAMCIK ON THE DILEMMA OF WHAT TO DO WITH THE MONEY ACCUMULATED IN OFE:“This is a difficult choice, especially when we realize that the money transferred to ZUS will be immediately spent on paying current pensions and converted into accounting entries. By staying in OFE and paying the government a commission, we keep real money in a real account.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/rynek/1789768,1,morawiecki-likwiduje-ofe-co-bedzie-z-naszymi-pieniedzmi.read?src=mt

-- THE GOVERNMENT IS RETURNING, MEANING TAKING 15% - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: “The raid on the funds by PiS is less spectacular, but more costly for future retirees. Mateusz Morawiecki promised to transfer the savings remaining in OFE to individual participant accounts, but they must pay a so-called transformation fee of 15% of their savings. This can be avoided by agreeing for the money to be taken over by ZUS. Morawiecki announced the liquidation of OFE in their current form two years ago. It is no coincidence that the work has accelerated today, as the government is looking for money to finance pre-election promises.”

-- GADOMSKI CALCULATES HOW MUCH THE GOVERNMENT WILL GAIN: “If all OFE members decide to transfer their savings to individual accounts, the government will 'earn' PLN 24 billion from them. If only half decide to do so, the government's immediate earnings will be PLN 12 billion, but an additional PLN 80 billion will appear in the ZUS Demographic Reserve Fund, which will reduce the current state debt by about 4 percentage points. The government will have an additional benefit – the Demographic Reserve Fund (FRD), which in theory is to support the pension system in the future, can be used for current needs, e.g., for buying more voter groups. Currently, there is about PLN 30 billion in the FRD, and next year there may be over PLN 100 billion. How many votes can be bought for that!” http://wyborcza.pl/7,155290,24663259,rzad-pis-znalazl-pieniadze-drugi-rozbior-ofe-jeszcze-gorszy.html

-- RZ ON ITS FRONT PAGE ATTACKS PIS WITH A DEBATE ON THE EURO, STATING EUROPEAN EARNINGS: “They are scaring Poles with the cost of living that the euro supposedly will cause, which is a false argument, as professor Jan Czekaj, former member of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), proves in today's article in 'Rzeczpospolita.' Another absurdity is that PiS, saying 'European wages – yes, European prices – no,' simultaneously refuses to give raises to striking teachers, which would bring them even a hair's breadth closer to European salaries. Because in many cases, we already have European prices, as they are shaped by the market, not by the government.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/304159892-Nie-straszcie-nas-euro.html

-- MACIEJ GDULA in conversation with Michał Wilgocki in GW about registered partnerships being a condition for a coalition: “– It's hard for me to imagine a coalition agreement without this point. Especially since – from what I know – Platforma is in favor, and doubts concern not the idea itself, but at most the details. I expect that PO will at least in some matters stick to its own position. The same applies to the Church Fund. We cannot let this go. It is important not only for our voters but for Poland.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24660970,jak-urzadzic-polske-po-pis-zeby-nie-wejsc-w-ich-buty-dr-maciej.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Agnieszka Szypielewicz, Sławomir Majman, Piotr Benedykt Zientarski, Karina Kostrzewa Dowgielewicz, Dawid Dziama.


Łukasz Mężyk