state of play: 04/15/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Trump in Warsaw on September 1st?, Wielowieyska: Will the strike harm Schetyna? Quite the opposite, as he emerges as a leader who has rallied half of Poland against PiS, Warzecha: PiS will likely win the confrontation rather than lose.

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PiS BILLBOARDS: "You have the right to a European standard of living" https://300polityka.pl/news/2019/04/15/masz-prawo-do-europejskiego-poziomu-zycia-pierwszy-billboard-pis-w-tej-kampanii/

-- KE BILLBOARDS: Kierwiński: The "Evacuation Operation" is intended to allow important PiS ministers to avoid political responsibility. Today, we are launching a major information campaign. https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/04/15/kierwinski-akcja-ewakuacja-ma-pozwolic-uniknac-odpowiedzialnosci-politycznej-waznym-ministrom-pis-u-dzis-rozpoczynamy-wielka-akcje-informacyjna/

-- BEATA SZYDŁO'S BIRTHDAY.

-- WILL TRUMP ANNOUNCE FORT TRUMP IN WARSAW ON SEPTEMBER 1ST? - JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI FOR RZ: “The American president is leaning towards visiting Poland on September 1st to announce the strengthening of US forces. According to our information, in Warsaw, Trump could also make a declaration regarding the abolition of visas for Poles. This is despite the fact that the US fiscal year ends only on September 30th – by then, it will be known how many of our compatriots were denied visas (this percentage must fall below 3%). The president would also announce important economic initiatives, especially in the energy sector. Last week, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Energy Ted Gerrish was in Warsaw, and discussions included the construction of nuclear power plants. The Westinghouse corporation is particularly interested in this.” https://www.rp.pl/Prezydent--USA/190419610-Trump-1-wrzesnia-w-Polsce-Fort-Trump-przyspiesza.html

-- VOTERS OUTSIDE OF PiS CONSIDER THE 'FIVE' UNNECESSARY AND TOO COSTLY FOR THE BUDGET - Krzysztof Pacewicz in GW on the Kantar survey: “74% of respondents, which in our sample is 1189 people, have any knowledge of the 'Five'. As many as 58% of these respondents believe that it is 'too costly for the budget and an unjustified proposal,' while only 35% believe that it is 'a necessary and appropriate proposal, even if costly.'

-- VOTERS OF THE ENTIRE OPPOSITION ARE AGAINST THE 'FIVE' - PACEWICZ CONTINUES: “Support for the 'Five' among voters of individual political groups looks very interesting: among PiS voters, a huge majority support it, as many as 78% of respondents, with only 19% against. However, among voters of all other parties, as many as 86% of respondents are against the 'Five,' and only 7% support it. Such a consensus of opinion among voters of all political forces – from the center-left Wiosna to the far-right Konfederacja – is a rarity in polls. This means that, apart from PiS voters, virtually all Poles consider Kaczyński's promises to be electoral bait, and not very tasty bait at that.”

-- ABOUT THE KANTAR SURVEY: “Kantar survey for 'Gazeta Wyborcza', 4-9/04/2019, CATI, sample of 1600 people, representative of the 18+ population. We excluded 'don't know / hard to say' responses. The question was asked only to individuals who declared they had any knowledge of 'Kaczyński's Five'. http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24659148,niesmaczna-kielbasa-wyborcza-tylko-wyborcy-pis-popieraja-piatke.html

-- PO IS VERY WEAK, IT CANNOT DEFEAT PiS ON ITS OWN - ROBERT BIEDROŃ IN AN INTERVIEW WITH JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “For democratic Poland and to remove PiS from power, I can cooperate with Schetyna's coalition. PO is already very weak, it cannot defeat PiS on its own. Without Wiosna, Kaczyński will continue to rule.”

-- SLD BETRAYED ITS VOTERS - BIEDROŃ CONTINUES: “SLD is the past, and moreover, they do not adhere to any specific values; they betrayed their electorate by joining Schetyna. We are going into the elections independently, including parliamentary ones, representing a progressive program.”

-- CZAPUTOWÁ WAS ALSO GIVEN NO CHANCE - BIEDROŃ CONTINUES IN RZ: “Two months before the elections in Slovakia, no one gave Čaputová a chance either. In the polls, she had 10% at the time. Today, she is the first female president of Slovakia. The ruling party there turned out to be entangled in a web of crimes, and in Poland, they are entangled in the decay of democracy – the old political class does not want change, only the perpetuation of the duopoly.” https://www.rp.pl/Wiosna/190419612-Biedron-Dla-PiS-nauczyciele-to-gorszy-sort.html

-- TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KL ON BIERECKI'S ARTICLE ABOUT ELITES NO LONGER HAVING THE STRENGTH TO BLOCK RADICALS: “One sometimes encounters the opinion that it is better for PiS to absorb radical forces and thus tame them, because if it distances itself from them, it risks the emergence of extreme competition on the right. The situation used to be more straightforward. Political elites once had one primary responsibility. It was to cordon off political madmen and radicals to prevent them from acting. Today, it is different. Our culture has become more democratic. Elites are no longer able to block political radicals on their way to power. The Internet and social media allow them to communicate with people without intermediaries.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/04/15/sawczuk-w-poniedzialek-bierecki-kaczynski/

-- AT THE DIAGNOSIS STAGE, THE GOVERNMENT DEFINED WELL - JAN KRZYSZTOF BIELECKI IN BUSINESSINSIDER IN AN INTERVIEW WITH MATEUSZ GĄSIOROWSKI: “With the current government, we have this problem: at the diagnosis stage, it correctly identified the need for strong investment growth, savings, and good judicial governance. The trouble is, the focus was primarily on income redistribution, which many Poles liked very much. Some success can be noted in this area, but the economy cannot go far on consumption alone. Returning to the previous question. We also need to answer the question of what our education should be like in the age of artificial intelligence, what the labor market should look like in the context of advancing robotization, and how to support innovative and creative people to keep them in the country. These are important tasks, and they can be carried out better than they are now. We also face a powerful political question: do we want to be in the mainstream of the European Union, or remain on its periphery? We must remember that being on the sidelines has harmed us in the past, and it is probably best not to return to that.”

-- WE ARE NOT SWEDEN, BUT WE ARE NOT UKRAINE EITHER - JKB CONTINUES: “Let's look at what is happening with Ukraine mentioned earlier, and let's not demand that we be Sweden right away. In terms of economic growth, poverty levels, and inequality, we have something to be proud of. The results are very good. Poland has never been as close to the Western world as it is today. More will take time.” https://businessinsider.com.pl/finanse/jan-krzysztof-bielecki-o-transformacji-gospodarczej-w-polsce/tnjgmk8

-- ON THE BATTLEFIELD, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ANGRY PEOPLE AND SCHETYNA LEFT - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “Even if PiS forces the teachers to end the protest without meeting their demands, there will be plenty of angry people and Grzegorz Schetyna left on the battlefield, who promised them raises after the elections.”

-- WILL THE STRIKE HARM SCHETYNA? QUITE THE OPPOSITE - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “Does the fact that Schetyna is attributed a significant role in the protests really harm him? Quite the opposite, because the PO leader emerges as a leader who has rallied half of Poland against PiS. Platforma has been cast in the role of spokesperson for the aspirations of a powerful group of voters. Nothing better could have happened to this formation. And PiS, by reinforcing this belief, is sawing off the branch it sits on, because it is building Schetyna's legend.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24654949,jak-rzad-rozjuszyl-nauczycieli-i-pomogl-schetynie-przed-wyborami.html

-- A WEEK OF STRIKE, BUT NO END IN SIGHT - front page of GW.

-- NOT EVEN ENOUGH FOR A DAY'S WAGES -DGP on the collection for teachers.

-- TALKING ABOUT THE EURO TO SILENCE THE TEACHERS - Paweł Wroński in GW: “PiS, once again desperately trying to force a discussion about the euro, intends to follow a similar path in the election campaign as in 2015. They are counting on the opposition to fall for it and start making excuses. Kaczyński did not address the most important political issue of recent days in Lublin, namely one of the largest strikes in the history of the Third Republic – the teachers' protest. Instead, he stated that his party's demand is 'European wages, not European prices.' The only important question to ask PiS, in the context of European wages, is: when will Polish teachers, who earn the least in Europe, receive not European, but at least decent earnings?” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24657381,nowa-taktyka-pis-pogadajmy-o-euro-by-nie-mowic-o-strajku-nauczycieli.html

-- LOCAL GOVERNMENTS HAVE BECOME A FORCE COMPETITIVE WITH PiS - EWA SIEDLECKA in Polityka: “Local governments not dominated by PiS are emerging as a political force competitive with PiS. It is they, not the central government, who largely determine the quality of our lives. This also applies to the sphere most appropriated by PiS, namely the governance of souls.”

-- PiS MUST RECKON WITH LOCAL GOVERNMENT - SIEDLECKA CONTINUES: “PiS does not rule undivided. It must reckon with the judiciary. But also with local governments, which the constitution grants significant power. While we are not a federal state, the Third Republic, among other things, differs from the PRL in that it has been decentralized. One of the fundamental principles of the constitution is the principle of subsidiarity, which means the obligation to delegate power downwards: what can be handled at the local level – is left to local authorities, what civil society organizations can do is transferred to them. The constitution has a separate chapter on territorial self-government.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/spoleczenstwo/1789542,1,samorzady-nie-beda-placic-za-strajk-nauczycieli-ale-maja-inny-plan.read?src=mt

-- JACEK ŻAKOWSKI ON THE COLLECTION FOR TEACHERS - MAKE THE TRANSFERS: “Many artists have reacted wonderfully. They are organizing concerts for teachers and other events. Where are the artists' organizations with royalty funds? Do they not feel obliged to support the future of education? It's nice now. Perhaps it's not indifference, cowardice, or greed, but oversight. OK! So, let's get to work. It's not too late. Reach for your wallets, checks, and transfers. You can still help your future.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24658435,siegajcie-po-portfele-czeki-i-przelewy.html

-- DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ ON THE GOVERNMENT CONSIDERING ITSELF THE WINNER OF THE CONFRONTATION: “Teachers are on strike and do not intend to end the protest, but the government's behavior already shows that it considers itself the winner of this confrontation. A proven strategy has been employed, and now it's just a matter of waiting. Virtually every protest during this term proceeds in the same way.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/strajk-nauczycieli-sie-nie-skonczyl-ale-rzad-juz-uwaza-sie-za-zwyciezce/f69c7jj

-- WARZECHA ON PiS WINNING THE CONFRONTATION WITH TEACHERS AND THE EURO: “The teachers' strike is entering its second week with a wave of intense emotions and a deadlock that currently prevents its resolution. Additionally, PiS is introducing another issue into the campaign – disagreement on adopting the euro. On this, as on the teachers' strike, they will likely win rather than lose.”

-- THE STRIKE WILL FADE INTO THE BACKGROUND - WARZECHA CONTINUES: “It signals that the authorities are slowly moving past their strike, so continuing it makes little sense. The topic of a common currency will likely not have a meteoric rise during the campaign, but it has already drawn a response from the opposition. While they haven't started calling for immediate euro adoption, they have traditionally begun pointing out to PiS that their rule has led to 'high prices,' meaning prices are already 'European.' This is a response to the PiS leader's statement at a weekend convention that the government wants European salaries for Poles, not European prices. For the next few days, we will therefore have a whirlwind around the euro, and the teachers' strike will fade somewhat into the background – although, of course, media favorable to the opposition will try to stoke the issue to the maximum, while media favorable to the authorities will try to marginalize it.” https://opinie.wp.pl/warzecha-nauczyciele-chca-rozmawiac-o-kasie-porozmawiaja-o-euro-opinia-6370301806348417a

-- PIOTR PACEWICZ IN OKO SZCZEGÓŁOWO ANALYZES THE HISTORY OF TEACHER WAGE INCREASES: https://oko.press/morawiecki-wypiera-sie-budzetu-2016-aby-udowodnic-ze-pis-jest-dobry-dla-nauczycieli-i-morduje-zaglobe/

-- THE PRESIDENT'S SILENCE AND THE PRIME MINISTER'S SPEECH FULL OF SPRING SMILES - BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA IN RZ: “If one (the president's silence) and the other (the prime minister's speech full of spring smiles) were translated into political language, the message would be simple. We are waiting for you to break and accept our terms. The meaning of your strike is ceasing to be credible to Poles, and a growing sense of moral discomfort urges you to return to schools even before the maturita exams. And we will wait. The round table will allow us to seal our terms.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/190419641-Strajk-niewazny--tak-jak-i-euro.html

-- PiS IS RUNNING OVER THE TEACHERS - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ IN RZ: “The teachers' strike is a test of social maturity. Will parents more strongly support teachers, who are also fighting for their interest, for the level of education, or will they opt for egoism, as they have nowhere to leave their children during the strike and have to pay for childcare? Will teachers turn away from students at a time of their educational trial? The answers to these questions are not good for the strikers today. PiS knows this, having already crushed the striking caregivers of disabled people and resident doctors. And it is similarly crushing the teachers, with growing social acceptance.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/190419613-PiS-wezmie-nauczycieli-glodem.html

-- ANTONI MACIEREWICZ IN DGP ATTRIBUTES PRO-RUSSIAN SENTIMENTS TO KOMOROWSKI'S TEAM: “Are you joking? At the end of 2014, a few months before the Russian attack on Crimea, President Bronisław Komorowski and General Stanisław Koziej published the 'National Security Strategy of the Republic of Poland' and stated, among other things, that there would be no war in Europe for the next 20 years, and Russia could become our ally! At that time, the team that I later introduced to the Ministry of National Defense was already active. During our discussions and analyses of the situation on the eastern flank, the term 'Suwałki Gap' was constantly present. This term redefined the geostrategic situation in this part of Europe.”

-- MACIEREWICZ ON RÓŻAŃSKI'S COMPROMISE: “General Mirosław Różański is simply incompetent. If an officer who is supposed to decide on the Polish army does not know what the A2/AD system is, i.e., a key Russian military system directed against Poland and NATO on the eastern flank, then it is a world-class compromise, showing that an army commanded in this way will not be capable of cooperating with NATO. Please watch General Różański's 'performance' on YouTube during a meeting organized by Jerzy Owsiak. He was asked about the A2/AD system, i.e., the anti-access system, and it turned out that the general, who boasts of certificates from foreign universities, has no idea what it is. He asked his interlocutor to 'explain the meaning of this term' to him on the side. I was embarrassed while watching the video from that meeting, and several hundred young people witnessed this compromise…”

-- MACIEREWICZ ON RÓŻAŃSKI FORMULATING THE RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICAL CONCEPT: “General Różański also clearly formulated an option that must be called the Russian geopolitical option: he was and is against opening the path to the Baltic Sea, blocked by Russia, by digging the Vistula Spit. He was against the relocation of Polish Army units to the eastern side of the Vistula. He was also perhaps the main author of the destruction of the command structure of the Polish army by creating three parallel decision-making lines and eliminating the superior role of the Chief of Staff. The army of Generals Pacek and Różański would never be ready for defense against Russian aggression. It requires meager knowledge and great determination to defend these actions. And all of this is presented in your propaganda and that of PO as the defense of the army.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykuly/595774,macierewicz-general-rozanski-lobby-rosyjskie-wywiad.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Beata Szydło, Krzysztof Szczerski, Michał Kobosko.


Łukasz Mężyk