state of play: 04/02/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Gowin on ACTA2 - maximally liberal interpretation, opposition's "Romanian scenario," Bartoszewski on Franco-German EU rule, Scheuring on aging, male KE lists

Łukasz Mężyk

-- KRUK ON RECONSTRUCTION DECISION AND TVP IN OCTOBER - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/04/02/

-- THE EU IS RULED BY FRANCE AND GERMANY, WITH THE EQUAL AND MORE EQUAL - WŁADYSŁAW TEOFIL BARTOSZEWSKI in an interview with WP: “This is done for political calculations. If Ireland violates budgetary discipline, it is immediately punished with budgetary discipline by Brussels. But if France does it for seven years, nobody cares. Because Mr. Juncker says: it’s France. And that’s how it is. And if Poland did it, we’d be in trouble. The EU is currently ruled by a Franco-German duo…”

-- BARTOSZEWSKI IN FAVOR OF CIVIL UNIONS: “I have no doubt that civil unions should be legalized in Poland. After all, far more heterosexual couples live in civil unions than homosexual couples. And homosexual couples have no rights to medical information about their partners. To basic matters. And everyone should be equal!”

-- POLEXIT IS POLITICAL PROPAGANDA, I DON'T BELIEVE IN PIS'S MACHIAVELLIAN PLAN - BARTOSZEWSKI CONTINUES IN WP: “This is political propaganda, not a statement of fact. I don’t think there is any Machiavellian plan by PiS to actually lead Poland out of the Union. I don’t want to believe it. I don’t believe in any Polexit. Chairman Jarosław Kaczyński, who is a very astute politician, looks at public opinion polls and sees that over 80% of Poles support Poland's presence in the EU. Including his voters! So he won’t tell Poles: we are leaving the Union. Kaczyński is not a madman. He is a pragmatic politician. He knows perfectly well that if tens of thousands of women with black umbrellas march on the streets of Poland, it's a sign not to touch the abortion laws. He is a very rational, capable politician. So Kaczyński will not go for any Polexit. He doesn’t care about taking Poland out of the Union. He wants to take the Union out of Poland. So that the Union doesn’t interfere.” https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/wladyslaw-teofil-bartoszewski-w-ue-sa-rowni-i-rowniejsi-ale-kaczynski-nie-chce-polexitu-6365437675493505a

-- IMPLEMENTING THE EUROPEAN COALITION'S PROMISES IS A "ROMANIAN SCENARIO" - JAROSŁAW GOWIN IN AN INTERVIEW WITH GRZEGORZ OSIECKI IN DGP: “Matters are different with the European Coalition's promises, which go much further. Implementing these announcements would put us on a Romanian path. The Romanian government started promisingly, with a decisive tax cut. The result was 7% economic growth. However, at the same time, pensions, social benefits, and salaries in the public sector were increased by dozens of percent. The consequence was inflation, a sharp increase in imports, a huge budget deficit, a radical decline in the competitiveness of Romanian companies, and ultimately economic stagnation, from which Romania will be struggling for years. When a government tries to distribute more than the budget can afford, after a short feast, it condemns its citizens to poverty. Such a scenario threatens Poland if the opposition takes power in the autumn.”

-- THE BUDGET CAN'T AFFORD MORE - GOWIN CONTINUES IN DGP: “I'll say this: we delivered what we promised. And we honestly say that the budget cannot afford more. However, the Civic Platform will try at all costs to prove that they can give more than us. And this opens the way to the Romanian scenario.”

-- THERE IS NO MORE ROOM FOR FURTHER SOCIAL PROGRAMS - GOWIN CONTINUES IN DGP: “In this and next year, the program’s implementation is not threatened. But – contrary to what the opposition claims – there is no room for further social programs. They could only be implemented by raising taxes. Meaning giving with one hand and taking away with the other. In addition, Poland faces the necessity of huge investments: in infrastructure, energy, the army, healthcare, science, artificial intelligence... Without these investments, the state will lose its instruments of power.”

-- 50:50 CHANCES - GOWIN CONTINUES: “I assume the result will be even. Mobilization of electorates, the course of the campaign, and the mistakes made in it will decide. Today, I assess the chances as 50 to 50.”

-- MAXIMALLY LIBERAL IMPLEMENTATION OF ACTA 2 - GOWIN ANNOUNCES: “DGP has intelligent voters. So no one would believe me if I tried to assure you that we don't care about internet users' votes. But there is another, more important reason. United Right is not just a camp of equality. Freedom is equally important to us. ACTA 2 threatens freedom of speech. Therefore, we will prepare a maximally liberal interpretation of this directive.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykuly/594836,jaroslaw-gowin-wywiad-wybory.html

-- JACEK KARNOWSKI ON BRONARZ'S RISKY GAME LIKE SCARGILL AGAINST THATCHER: “Sławomir Broniarz is embarking on an expedition whose outcome is unpredictable. He considers it a given that the ruling camp will not withstand an indefinite strike that will paralyze education. Indeed, it will not be easy for the government, but will the social reaction be as unequivocal, as clear, as he thinks? I wouldn’t bet on it. There was once a trade union leader in history who thought he could oust a right-wing government. His name was Arthur Scargill. He lost, even though he held an even more powerful weapon: the threat of blocking the entire economy. Arthur Scargill also thought the government had no moves, that he had checkmated them. But a government with a parliamentary majority always has room to maneuver. If Sławomir Broniarz does not want to end up like the leader of British miners, he should urgently study this well-known story from the mid-80s. Because, just like then, the current strike can enable very deep, even revolutionary changes in education.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/440693-strajk-znp-moze-umozliwic-rewolucyjne-zmiany-w-edukacji

-- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON THE OPPOSITION TAKING POWER "IN SEGMENTS": “Another matter is that gaining a “foothold” in the Senate would give the opposition some wind in its sails and start a segmental process of taking power. The aforementioned Jarosław Kurski presented this very clearly and honestly - after taking the Senate, all sights would be set on President Andrzej Duda, Donald Tusk would enter the fray, the full weight of the game would be shifted to the presidential election, and perhaps even early parliamentary elections. This is an interesting scenario, based on more realistic premises than the fantasies about Grzegorz Schetyna gaining full power this autumn - there is neither enough social emotion for that, nor even the dynamics that would give hope for it. But in segments, bit by bit? Something to consider, even if today it seems like a story written in the sand.”

-- FIJOŁEK ON THE ARGUMENTS OF PIS POLITICIANS THAT THE ELECTION WINNER TAKES THE SENATE: “PiS politicians were reassured - firstly, it has never happened in Polish history that someone with a majority in the Sejm did not have a majority in the Senate. Secondly - that one cannot predict what will happen in 2019 by simply summing up the results from 2015; otherwise, the European Coalition should today be beating PiS (the combined result of the parties forming the EC in 2014 was much higher than that of the United Right), and this is not the case. Thirdly - that PSL voters will not follow candidates from Nowoczesna or Platforma, and PiS is not as weak as some would like to see it.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/440598-cel-opozycji-na-2019-start-segmentowego-odebrania-wladzy

-- NO EVIDENCE FOR SPECULATION ABOUT KUCHCIŃSKI - Wojciech Czuchnowski and Ewa Ivanova in GW: “Serious accusations against PiS politicians and the Central Anticorruption Bureau. A former CBA agent claims that his superiors wanted to conceal a sexual scandal involving Marshal of the Sejm Marek Kuchciński. However, there is no evidence that Kuchciński committed a crime.

-- INVESTIGATED BY JOURNALISTS FROM SEVERAL EDITORIAL OFFICES - CZUCHNOWSKI AND IVANOVA CONTINUE: “The problem is that there is indeed no evidence of Kuchciński's and other public figures' inadmissible behavior. The issue of the "Podkarpacie sex scandal" has been investigated for several months by journalists from several editorial offices (including 'Wyborcza,' RMF FM, 'Fakt,' Onet). They found no confirmation of the allegations, nor did they receive any copies of compromising recordings. A few weeks ago, Radio ZET decided to report on the matter, but the station approached the issue cautiously, noting that it is impossible to determine whether the former agent is telling the truth. The report filed by Wojciech Janik was described in the latest issue of the weekly 'Nie.' The author of the text, Andrzej Rozenek (former MP of the Ruch Palikota movement), emphasized that the matter is serious and Kuchciński should address it.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24605861,seksafera-podkarpacka-na-niedopuszczalne-zachowania-marszalka.html

-- ANDRZEJ GAJCY ON THE RECONSTRUCTION IN PRZYSUCHA: “PiS is planning a nationwide convention in Przysucha for Saturday, a symbolically important place for the ruling camp. It was here in 2014 that the convention 'PiS Closer to People. Poland is One' took place, which initiated the path of Kaczyński's party to power. The United Right congress was also held in Przysucha in July 2017. The convention is to be dedicated to agriculture, but Onet's sources admit that some personnel changes may also be announced in Przysucha. 'Everything is in President Kaczyński's hands,' they all agree.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/rekonstrukcja-rzadu-przed-swietami-wielkanocnymi/k7zkmhr

-- JOANNA SOLSKA ON THE STICK AND CARROT IN THE OFE REFORM - ONLY TO WHOSE ACCOUNT?: “PiS has devised a plan: along with the stick, i.e., the loss of 25% of funds (and how do we know it won't be more?), they will also show future pensioners a carrot. The carrot is the promise that the remaining 75%, or about PLN 120 billion, will go into our private accounts. A very enigmatic promise, because we know almost nothing about these private accounts. Where are they to be established? In banks, investment firms, or perhaps added to our private accounts in the future Employee Capital Plans? Or will it be a registration on our individual account in ZUS? Each of these solutions is worth little to future retirees.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/rynek/1787970,1,pis-siega-po-ofe-jak-na-tym-wyjda-przyszli-emeryci-jak-zwykle.read?src=mt

-- PO HAS A PROBLEM SUPPORTING MY ACTIONS REGARDING PEDOPHILIA IN THE CHURCH - JOANNA SCHEURING-WIELGUS IN KRYTYKA: “If PO and the liberal circles thought differently, they would have no problem supporting my actions regarding pedophilia in the Catholic Church. It is no coincidence that PO and PSL MPs never attended the conferences I organized in the Sejm with the 'Nie Lękajcie Się' Foundation.”

-- WIOSNA TO PRESENT ITS EUROPEAN PROGRAM, GENERATIONAL CHANGE NEEDED, KE HAS LISTS WITH AN AVERAGE AGE OF 62 AND MAJORITY MEN: “This coming Thursday, Wiosna will present its European program. But I know something else already: in the previous local government elections, in 2014, the process of people like me, from social and civic movements, entering politics began. Now, in most presidential cities, civic committees have also won, not party ones. We are in the midst of a great generational shift - because a new generation dominates in these new forces. Even the European Coalition could be a good idea if it gave a chance to fresh blood, younger politicians, instead of creating lists with an average age of 62 on the top spots and a majority of men.”

-- IF SOMEONE DID THAT TO MY CHILD, I WOULD TEAR THE BASTARD APART - JSW CONTINUES IN KRYTYKA: “Deep down, I’m probably ‘green,’ although I’m more often labeled a leftist, liberal, or feminist. I’ve certainly become more radical lately regarding the Church, although I've been an unbeliever for a very long time. This is related to the fight for the well-being of children. When I gave birth to my first child, I was so involved in raising them that I didn't let anyone touch them, not even a grandmother or aunt. It was different with the others, but it's still with me today, this feeling that if someone did something to my child, I would tear the bastard apart.”

-- A MAP OF PEDOPHILIA IN THE CHURCH IS NEEDED - JSW CONTINUES: “I was recently in Rome at the invitation of organizations that investigate clerical sexual offenses and prepared reports in Ireland and the USA; the 'Nie Lękajcie Się' organization was also there. We showed what these offenses look like against the backdrop of the rest of the world, and we considered how to engage people on the topic, how to show the scale of the phenomenon - based on these shared experiences, we created a map of pedophilia in the Polish Church with Agata Diduszko. And I would like to do the same through the European Parliament - show the scale of the problem, and then hold the perpetrators accountable.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/scheuring-wielgus-wiosna-eurowybory-rozmowa/ -- THE OPPOSITION'S PROGRAM IS WRITTEN BY PROTESTORS - AGNIESZKA WIŚNIEWSKA IN KP: "Dear opposition politicians, do not be afraid to use funds for experts. They can help you understand society better. This is advice in case you win the elections. If you win, then the protests will be directed against your rule. Perhaps it is better to try to see and understand in advance where the angry people are, why they are angry, and perhaps try to solve problems at an early stage. I will tell you one more thing: the angry people will be in healthcare." https://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/agnieszka-wisniewska/program-opozycji-pisza-protestujacy/

-- BIRTHDAYS: Ludwika Wujec, Agata Kornhauser-Duda, Krzysztof Skórzyński, Mirosław Pawlak.


Łukasz Mężyk