state of play: 03/27/2019
-- FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE REPORTS GERMANY AGREED TO ACTA 2 IN EXCHANGE FOR FRENCH CONCESSIONS ON NORD STREAM 2: Germany's agreement to the controversial copyright reform was a favour for France's green light for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. This is an investment that Poland opposes. "Faz" writes on Tuesday about a "barter trade" between Berlin and Paris. https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/faz-niemcy-poparly-acta2-w-zamian-za-zgode-francji-na-nord-stream-2-6363812838152321a.html
-- TRZASKOWSKI ON NOT SUPPORTING ACTA 2, SZEFERNAKER ON INTRODUCING CENSORSHIP AND CIVIC PLATFORM HAVING A CREDIBILITY PROBLEM - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/03/27/
-- THE CITY HALL IS A COURT RULED BY IRREMOVABLE DIRECTORS, PERHAPS IT'S TIME TO CHANGE THAT - ARKADIUSZ GRUSZCZYŃSKI in Gazeta Stołeczna: "Rafał Trzaskowski has not removed a single office head from the previous term, and the new coordinating directors, Justyna Glusman and Aldona Machnowska-Góra, have to face public opinion for the ill-considered decisions of their subordinates. The City Hall is a court ruled by unremovable directors. Maybe it's time to change that?"
-- WHERE WERE THE OFFICIALS? - GRUSZCZYŃSKI CONTINUES in Stołeczna: "Rafał Trzaskowski is losing to his own officials. Will he understand that without reforming the City Hall, he won't be able to implement his election program? Why wasn't the signing of the card preceded by an educational campaign in public transport or on billboards? Where was Robert Zydel, the official responsible for the city's image? Could the president's spokesperson, Kamil Dąbrowa, step out of Twitter for a moment and deal with more serious matters than provoking right-wing councilors? Or perhaps I'm mistaken, and the tactic was to wait out the crisis and send Trzaskowski to television and respond to internet posts from politicians followed by a thousand people?" http://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,24588275,krol-w-ratuszu-bez-dworu.html
-- DGP RECONSTRUCTS THE FINANCE MINISTER'S SPEECH AT A CONFERENCE ON EFFICIENCY - FRAGMENT ON BUDGETARY RESPONSIBILITY: "We are talking about responsibility, credibility in making financial or investment decisions. Making them is not easy. Budget decisions must be a compromise between our expectations and possibilities. They are determined not only by the current situation but must also take into account factors such as the economic cycle, forecasts, and risks that affect medium-term economic trends. They must also consider the rights and well-being of future generations." https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykuly/594437,czerwinska-minister-finansow-budzet.html
-- PAWEŁ BRAVO IN TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY STRONGLY ON THE HYPOCRISY OF CIVIC PLATFORM REGARDING ORBÁN - THEY WEREN'T AS HARSH ON ORBÁN AS THEY ARE ON KACZYŃSKI: "However, there are limits: of all the parties belonging to the EPP, it is precisely Civic Platform, which is building its electoral message on rejecting everything that contradicts democracy, pluralism, and European solidarity in the PiS practice, that should help get rid of the rotten apple from its own basket. Or at least hide in the shadows if tactics require it. Meanwhile, PO leaders have neither been as harsh towards Orbán as they are harshly denouncing Kaczyński, nor have they taken the opportunity to remain silent."
-- PERHAPS IT'S WORTH CONSIDERING IF THE LACK OF POLITICAL EXPERIENCE IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE AN ADVANTAGE - BRAVO'S CONCLUSION: "In the context of these words, so comical in their powerlessness that they are no longer even hypocritical, the sense of Grzegorz Schetyna's statement from the same press conference sounds rather perverse. When asked about Robert Biedroń's 'Spring', he commented: 'Certainly, they are not experienced people in politics. Secondly, they have no European experience at all.' Who knows, if European experience means ineffectively endorsing everything Orbán does, while simultaneously scaring voters with Kaczyński, then perhaps it's indeed worth considering whether this 'complete' lack of experience isn't starting to look like a real advantage and a promising change." https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/schetyna-daje-szanse-orbanowi-czy-ty-dasz-szanse-schetynie-158112
-- JOANNA SOLSKA ON THE THREAT OF THE "CZERWIŃSKA HOLE": "The tone of the current government's narrative has already changed. Now no one repeats that 'if you don't steal, it's enough for everything.' Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki admits that the deficit will have to be increased to 2, or perhaps even 3 percent of GDP. He speaks like a politician, in circles, it doesn't sound dangerous in his mouth. But Finance Minister Teresa Czerwińska knows very well that this will not be enough. Her entourage is probably aware of this too, hence the rumor of her desire to resign. Because such a 'Czerwińska hole' during a declining but still favorable economic climate would be her disgrace. Proof that as Minister of Finance, she is incompetent. And as a scientist, an economist – even more so. However, as can be seen, she hesitates. And she escapes into a narrative like 'we will be looking.'
-- FIRST VICTORY, THEN CUTS AND TAX INCREASES - SOLSKA'S CONCLUSION: "And once the government solidifies its mandate to rule, it will deal with state finances. First victory, then cuts and tax increases. And this order is completely safe for the government, and voters will have little to say then. https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/rynek/1787288,1,byle-do-wyborow-o-budzet-pis-pomartwi-sie-potem.read?src=mt
-- PIOTR PACEWICZ VERY INTERESTINGLY ON THE CREDIBILITY OF POLLING AGENCIES - WRITES in OKO: "We present them in their entirety, without considering the credibility of individual studies. However, it is worth emphasizing that out of the six surveyed firms, only three – CBOS, IPSOS, and Kantar MB – belong to the Organization for Market and Public Opinion Research, which ensures the quality and methodology of research. The results of the others should be viewed with greater caution. This applies particularly to Estymator, which can ask questions like: 'Can Poland leave the EU now, because we won't get any more money from it, and if we do, they will expect too much in return?' (see also other examples)."
-- A DRAW AND A GROWING DUOPOLY ARE VISIBLE - PIOTR PACEWICZ ON THE SUM OF POLLS: "As can be seen, among the 10 surveys from February 16 to March 24:
- PiS wins seven times, KE wins three times;
- Only once is the difference between PiS and KE statistically significant – it is as much as 16 points in the CBOS poll. This is only a non-telephone, so-called direct survey, i.e., face-to-face with the interviewer;
- In the remaining 9 surveys, the difference averages 2.6 percentage points, five times it is only 1-2 points;
- There is no clearer trend for PiS to gain an advantage or, conversely, to lose to KE;
- On the other hand, there is a growing dominance of the PiS-KE "duopoly". In February, their combined ratings averaged 71%, in the first half of March 73%, and in the second half of March 80%.
So, one can say that we are dealing with PiS and KE ratings around a draw (except for one CBOS poll – more on that later). A trend is also emerging for voters to concentrate around the two main political forces, which may be the result of the increasing intensity of the dispute after PiS launched its homophobic campaign, which further polarizes public opinion and evokes strong emotions."
-- THE SPRING'S LEAD OVER KUKIZ REMAINS - PACEWICZ FURTHER ON TRENDS: "So, one can say that the systematic lead of 'Spring' over Kukiz'15 is maintained, but both parties are losing to the strengthening PiS-KE duopoly. Kukiz'15 may also be losing to competitors on the nationalist wing, namely Confederation Korwin-Mikke, Braun, Liroy, National Movement."
-- TELEPHONE POLLS ARE MORE RELIABLE, CBOS IS DUE TO METHODOLOGY, NOT FAVORING THE GOVERNMENT - PACEWICZ DEFENDS GRABOWSKA: "The survey method – direct or telephone – affects the results even when the same company conducts the polls. In a direct survey conducted on April 11, 2017, Kantar Public measured 38% for PiS and 19% for PO. In a telephone survey on April 12, 2017, the same Kantar Public obtained 28% for PiS and 27% for PO. One might think that a direct conversation at home would provide a more accurate measure of political attitudes than a quick phone call, as the surveyed person has time to think, can see the list of parties to choose from... However, it is the opposite. According to analyses by SWPS sociologists (Maksymilian Bielecki, Mikołaj Cześnik, and Michał Wenzel), telephone polls before the 2015 presidential elections provided better forecasts than the direct method. The same was true in the 2010 presidential elections." https://oko.press/pis-miazdzy-opozycje-czy-przegrywa-z-ke-biedron-rosnie-czy-tonie-co-naprawde-mowia-sondaze/
-- SCOOTERS AGAINST PIS - IT DOESN'T WORK ANYMORE - MARCIJ FIJOŁEK: "The example of these unfortunate scooters is a good reflection of the changes that have occurred in our political and media reality. The tools are different today, the emotions are different, the balance of power and the significance of individual circles (including journalistic ones) also look different. I repeat – something that would have worked in 2007 would today have no negligible potential, except perhaps for the more zealous opposition supporters. The 'tyranny' lurking for teenagers could not be pinned this time, but such attempts have already been made – for example, during the 'coup' in front of the Sejm, protests in front of the Presidential Palace, or the so-called counter-anniversaries, and they will undoubtedly be made in the future. Officials deserve great credit for not allowing themselves to be provoked, for reacting even too gently, as long as they do not cross the thin line beyond which images from Poland would be sent around the world as the ultimate proof of the true face of the PiS government." https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/439728-hulajnoga-w-pis-dobry-przyklad-na-zmiane-rzeczywistosci
-- PROFESSOR MAGDALENA ŚRODA ON THE LISTS: THE OPPOSITION HAS STARS, AND PiS IS PURGING ITSELF OF LOSERS - writes in GW: "There is Wanda Nowicka, there is Róża Thun, there is the active and effective Michał Boni, there is Joanna Schering-Wielgus, Dariusz Rosati, there is Anita Kucharska-Dziedzic, Monika Płatek, and finally Zbigniew Bujak, before whom I bow my head, because I have never known a more honest politician (perhaps that's why it's hard to call him a politician). On the other hand, the PiS list has a 'cleansing' character. The leader is getting rid of losers, ignoramuses, incompetent people, and above all, irresponsible ones, which in PiS language is probably called 'merits.' Beata Kempa, Minister Waszczykowski, MP Kruk are finally leaving Poland, Anna Zalewska is fleeing at full speed, hoping that the blame for the destruction of the Polish education system will fall on someone else." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75248,24587960,kogo-wodzowie-partyjni-posylaja-do-europarlamentu.html
-- GDULA: THE POLISH FAMILY IS DEFENDED BY BIEDROŃ AND SCHEURING-WIELGUS, NOT KACZYŃSKI - says to Michał Sutowski in Krytyka Polityczna: "Yes, the defender of the Polish family is Robert Biedroń, and the defender of Polish children is Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus. Because we are in favor of prosecuting perpetrators of crimes against children on the one hand, and introducing sex education to prevent them on the other. For thirty years, successive parties have abandoned this issue because of the Polish Pope, because of the bishops, because of the conservative society, because why cause a fuss. And as a result, young people today learn about sex from the internet or from a priest."
-- PLATFORM WITH PiS'S TOOLS WILL BE RUTHLESS - GDULA CONTINUES AT SUTOWSKI'S: "No, I fear rather that the Platform with its satellites, ruling after PiS and in a state rebuilt by PiS, will be extremely ruthless. It will inherit the structure and, at the same time, the reflexes associated with subordinating institutions and centralizing power from its predecessors. It will assume that power is best exercised non-negotiably in Poland and that this is the source of voter support. Moreover, this will be compounded by the depletion of cadres from three old party groups: PO, SLD, and, last but obviously not least, PSL. Yes, I fear the rule of such a coalition and the settlements conducted in the atmosphere of restoring the Third Republic."
-- TODAY, NOT ONLY GW AND TVN ARE SETTING THE AGENDA: "Let me say this: in the 1990s, we would be in a terrible situation, but today, not only 'Gazeta Wyborcza' and TVN24 on one side, and TVP Info on the other, are setting the agenda. There is also the internet and social media, where the campaign is being conducted seriously. On the other hand, there are 'traditional' channels for discussing politics with people." https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/sutowski-gdula-wiosna-wybory/
-- THE POLISH SCHOOL SYSTEM WILL DEGRADE INTO MISERY - PRZEMYSŁAW WILCZYŃSKI in TYGODNIK: "A Polish teacher needs to be paid significantly more, but also more should be demanded of them – from the start. The education strike, even if it ends in complete success, should therefore be considered a first step. The next should be reform: even if this terrible word evokes understandable horror after 30 years of constant renovation of education, without reform, the Polish school system will indeed slide into misery. Misery much deeper than just that measured by the thinness of teachers' wallets." https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/oswiata-tysiac-zlotych-to-poczatek-158114
-- SMOLENSK, PI'S GUILT OF CONSCIENCE - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ in Rz: "Questions remain, this time directed at the ruling PiS politicians. Why are there still no culprits for the 'attack'? Why is there still no evidence of an 'attack'? Why has the parliamentary investigative committee on the Smolensk disaster, announced by PiS, not been established? Why has the law on clarifying the Smolensk disaster, announced by President Kaczyński, not been enacted? Why has the government not obtained satellite recordings and images from the USA? Why have President Duda and the authorities not internationalized the investigation? Why are the rulers not pressing for the return of the wreckage and black boxes, with the support of the USA and EU countries?" https://www.rp.pl/Katastrofa-smolenska/303269910-Smolenski-wyrzut-sumienia-PiS.html
-- TANKS DID NOT PROTECT AGAINST RUSSIAN INFLUENCE ON ELECTIONS - COL. PIOTR ŁUKASZEWICZ, BIEDROŃ'S SECURITY ADVISOR - in conversation with Łukasz Rogojsz in Gazeta: "That's correct thinking. Sophisticated tanks will not ensure security in the modern world. They have not protected anyone from Russian influence on elections."
-- PI'S LENIENCY TOWARDS RUSSIAN CYBERNETIC AND CULTURAL CHALLENGES - COL. ŁUKASZEWICZ CONTINUES: "On the other hand, the current authorities show leniency towards Russian cybernetic, raw material, and cultural challenges. Russians are active on our social media, in party life, and in Polish-Ukrainian relations. There are no military responses to such challenges. We should finally show our NATO and EU partners that we are realists on the Russian issue, we are grounded, but we do not have a persecution complex. And that while rightly demanding the blocking of Nord Stream 2, we are not simultaneously opening ourselves widely to Russian coal."
-- WAŁĘSA EXPELLED RUSSIAN SOLDIERS, BIEDROŃ WILL EXPEL RUSSIAN EQUIPMENT - COL. ŁUKASZEWICZ CONTINUES: "But if the economic situation holds, I would like to get rid of old Russian equipment from the army, i.e., some tanks, armored personnel carriers, and helicopters. Lech Wałęsa once expelled Russian soldiers from our country, and 'Spring' would like to expel Russian equipment. That's quite a calling card. I would also like a technological leap, for example, naval drones, an IT offensive, and as much long-range striking power as possible. Attacking Poland and the Baltic states must not be profitable for anyone." http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24585494,utrzymac-wot-zniesc-tzw-ustawe-dezubekizacyjna-skonczyc-z.html
-- ON A JUDGE FROM THE "GOOD CHANGE" BREAKING RANKS IN THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL - EWA SIEDLECKA ON "SPRING" ARRIVING IN THE TK: "Perhaps the statement of the seven old judges impressed some of the 'good change' judges? Perhaps they feel the wind that will bring electoral change and are starting to have doubts whether rulings made in manipulated compositions, in violation of the law, with the participation of substitutes, and statistically significantly in line with political expectations – could turn out to be a stain on their reputation? And even lead someday to disciplinary responsibility and removal from the Tribunal without the right to judicial retirement? Who knows. The fact is that one of the 'good change' judges broke ranks this Monday from the chorus, when on the third attempt, the case of the National Council of the Judiciary was finally adjudicated (of course, in favor of PiS). He voted against the ruling – for now timidly, without a dissenting opinion, but still. Spring is coming." https://siedlecka.blog.polityka.pl/2019/03/26/zagadka-wzburzenia-sedzi-przylebskiej-czyli-idzie-wiosna/
-- 9 YEARS AGO, Bronisław Komorowski defeated Radosław Sikorski in the primary elections to become the Civic Platform's candidate in the upcoming presidential elections.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Henryka Krzywonos, Anna Sobecka, Bartłomiej Misiewicz, Marek Konopka, Wojciech Saługa, Małgorzata Adamczak, Dominik Tarczyński.
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