state of play: 03/22/2019

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: GW: PiS Fears Losing the Senate, Olejnik: Kaczyński Cares About Morality Like Gomułka, Shocked by Kalina Jędrusik's Deep Cleavage, Nizinkiewicz and Majmurek: PiS Harms Itself with the ECJ

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PETRU DOES NOT WANT A PSL FACE IN BRUSSELS, LUBNAUER ON CZERWIŃSKA'S POLITICAL ILLNESS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/03/22/

-- TVP SUPERVISORY BOARD SUSPENDS ŁASKA, PRESIDENT'S MANEUVER A FIASCO: https://www.wirtualnemedia.pl/artykul/piotr-palka-zawieszony-w-zarzadzie-telewizji-polskiej

-- PIS FEARS LOSING THE SENATE - GW lead story - Agata Kondzińska: “At a closed-door meeting, PiS politicians complained to Jarosław Kaczyński that if the opposition united, they could lose the Senate elections. - This is a real scenario - believes sociologist Jarosław Flis. According to "Gazeta Wyborcza" sources, the discussion was far from routine, as senators fear that PiS might lose the upper house of parliament in the autumn. Currently, the United Right has 63 out of 100 seats. – If just a dozen or so drop out, we're done for – we hear.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24572865,pis-boi-sie-utraty-senatu.html#S.DT-K.C-P.1-B.1-L.1.foto

-- MONIKA OLEJNIK ON BISHOPS STARTING WITH THEMSELVES INSTEAD OF THE LGBT CARD - WRITES IN GW: “Can Archbishops Gądecki and Jędraszewski look in the eyes of those children who were raped and molested by priests? Watching this conference, I had the impression that they were heartless, that they were more interested in LGBT and the alleged 'sexualization of children,' although they should have started with themselves. How many tears did the victims shed, their families, who will live in trauma for the rest of their lives?”

-- OLEJNIK COMPARES KACZYŃSKI'S OUTRAGE TO GOMUŁKA: “Rafał Trzaskowski, by signing the LGBT declaration, enraged right-wing circles. Jarosław Kaczyński shouts: 'Hands off our children,' caring about morality like Władysław Gomułka, who, according to legend, was shocked by Kalina Jędrusik's deep cleavage. We are discussing topics that have long been resolved in many countries. Perhaps Jarosław Kaczyński could learn from his friend Viktor Orbán that registered partnerships have existed in Hungary for over a decade. It's also worth reading texts with understanding, not shouting that the opposition wants homosexuals to adopt children.”

-- WHY IS CZERWIŃSKA NOT SPEAKING OUT? - Łukasz Warzecha in SE: “Most importantly, however, in this story is that Teresa Czerwińska is clearly not enthusiastic about the handout ideas of her own government. In fact, not even the government, but the ruling party's leader. And that's putting it mildly. This situation should set off a red alarm. The prospects of maintaining ridiculously inflated expenses, serving mainly to maintain support for PiS, must be very weak if the head of the Ministry of Finance clearly doesn't want to speak out on this matter at all.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24571758,pancerna-brzoza-pancerny-episkopat-pancerny-prezes.html

-- UNLESS THIS IS PREPARING PUBLIC OPINION FOR THE END OF HANDOUTS AFTER THE ELECTION - WARZECHA CONTINUES IN SE: “Unless the information on the wPolityce portal is the beginning of a game intended to prepare public opinion for the liquidation of handout initiatives shortly after the election. After all – as teachers have just heard – the budget is not made of rubber.” https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/lukasz-warzecha-o-zamieszaniu-w-rzadzie-gdzie-jest-minister-czerwinska-aa-Dp7M-B3zo-KiMh.html

-- CZERWIŃSKA'S DEPARTURE WOULD DAMAGE INVESTOR CONFIDENCE - ŁUKASZ LIPIŃSKI on Polityka.pl: “Answering the title question: at this moment, Teresa Czerwińska is unlikely to leave for political reasons, as it would create a terrible impression on both voters and investors, who are anxiously observing our financial situation. However, I wouldn't bet heavily on the minister remaining in the government long-term. There are elections, then more elections, government reconstructions, and at one of these junctures, quietly, there will be an opportunity to replace the head of the ministry. With someone who cares less about finances and more about politics.”

-- LIPIŃSKI ON FACTIONAL FIGHTS AROUND CZERWIŃSKA: “Interestingly, the pro-government service wPolityce.pl was the first to write about the matter. According to the Karnowski brothers' portal, the minister did not participate in the 'Kaczyński's Five' agreements, and after its announcement, she submitted her resignation to Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who did not accept it. The Ministry of Finance spokesman denied this information, but the portal stands by its claims. Perhaps this is connected to the fact that wPolityce.pl is associated with Zbigniew Ziobro, who does not have good relations with Morawiecki and Czerwińska. But let's set aside the factional fights within the ruling camp.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1786736,1,czy-minister-czerwinska-odejdzie.read?src=mt

-- THE MINISTER OF FINANCE SHOULD BE STRONG - PIOTR SKWIROWSKI in Rz: “What's worse, an economic slowdown is looming. And the blanket is too short. Too short. And Minister Teresa Czerwińska probably already knows this. This is likely why she is silent on these promises. And the rumors of her resignation. Perhaps this wouldn't be happening if the minister of finance had a stronger position in the government. Many of Czerwińska's predecessors combined this role with the position of deputy prime minister. They could bang their fist on the table where strategic decisions were made. This should be reverted to, strengthening the position and voice of the minister of finance. Poland cannot afford for them to be just an accountant.” https://www.rp.pl/Blogi/303219880-Minister-finansow-musi-byc-silny.html

-- KACZYŃSKI WOULD BE A LEADER OF POPULIST RIGHT IN EUROPE IF HE WERE IN THE EPP - SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI on Onet: “Viktor Orbán's Fidesz has been suspended from membership in the European People's Party, which unites Christian democratic parties in the European Union (including PO and PSL). I observe with embarrassment how Christian democratic politicians are pushing Orbán out in a way that avoids actually expelling him. If Kaczyński were in Orbán's place, he could be a leader of the populist right in Europe. And ensure his long-term rule in Poland.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/sierakowski-odrzucajac-epp-kaczynski-nie-wiedzial-co-traci-opinia/79sr9hn

-- PIS HARMS ITSELF, SHOULD EXTINGUISH THE JUDICIARY CONFLICT - JAKUB MAJMUREK in Newsweek: “For its own interests, PiS should de-escalate the conflict with the ECJ and the Supreme Court. It will be easier for the party to explain another volte-face on the judiciary to its hard core electorate than to contend with the 'Polexit party' label. Currently, in the campaign – unlike in 2015 – the ruling party is focusing on increasing polarization rather than softening its image and positioning itself in the center. They may painfully stumble on such tactics in European matters. Especially if it is accompanied by the chaos that was already evident in Luxembourg on Tuesday.” https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/w-sporze-z-tsue-pis-dziala-wbrew-wlasnym-interesom/vtv7k14

-- THE ECJ CASE IS UNFAVORABLE FOR PIS - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ in Rz: “The European Parliament elections, overshadowed by Brexit and the ECJ case, are unfavorable for PiS. It may become clear to voters that even if the United Right is not directly aiming for Polexit, its decisions are marginalizing Poland in the EU. Weakening Poland's position in the EU, rather than fighting for its subjectivity, may translate into a weaker electoral result for PiS. The more strongly PiS wages war with the Union, the more it will alienate the moderate electorate, which can decide the outcome of the May elections.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/303219897-Nizinkiewicz-Czy-PiS-zalezy--na-Polsce-w-UE.html

-- EU COMMISSIONER WHIPS GOOGLE WITH FINES WHILE GAZPROM GETS ABSOLUTION - ANDRZEJ KUBLIK in GW: “EU Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager judges violations of antitrust laws by different standards. She whips American Google with fines, while absolving Russian Gazprom.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,155290,24570505,w-brukseli-wola-g-z-rosji-niz-z-ameryki.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Ewa Łętowska, Stanisław Stec, Jacek Moskwa.


Łukasz Mężyk