state of play: 03/12/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Schetyna Aims for Just One Seat to Win, Programmatic Agreement Challenges Loom, Dąbrowska Sees Opposition Playing the LGBT Card Instead of Addressing Apocalyptic Visions

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PROF. JÓZEF TISCHNER WOULD HAVE CELEBRATED HIS 88TH BIRTHDAY TODAY.

-- PRESIDENT TO SIEMONIACK: What were you thinking when you decided to extend the operational life of these aircraft in 2011? Was there no problem then? -300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/03/12

-- GRZEGORZ SCHETYNA ON HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH SLD - IF IT YIELDS 5-7% IT'S WORTH IT - says in an interview with Tomasz Sawczuk and Łukasz Pawłowski in Kultura Liberalna: “The SLD knows my stance on communism and communists. [...] I know Leszek Miller's history very well. But I look at his evolution and see a politician who brought Poland into the European Union, a European and a democrat. If our cooperation with the SLD allows us to add another 5-7 percent support for the coalition, I think it's worth doing, because the threat lies elsewhere.”

-- THE HUNGARIAN LESSON IS A BENCHMARK - SCHETYNA CONTINUES IN KL: “Today, the Hungarian lesson is a benchmark for me of what we should do in Poland. There, the opposition could not unite, which is why there is no political structure today that would allow Orbán to be removed from power. If we don't win the European and parliamentary elections, very bad things will happen in Poland. We need to do a lot to prevent this scenario and not give full power to Kaczyński.”

-- SCHETYNA ON THE GOAL OF 25-30 SEATS: “But now, I believe that winning the European elections is key before the parliamentary elections. I don't know what the coalition formula will be in October. But I know today that we can get between 25 and 30 seats, beat PiS, and have the largest Polish representation in the European Parliament, with a clear majority in the EPP, the European People's Party.”

-- NO ONE WILL LET ME LOSE THE ELECTION - SCHETYNA TELLS SAWCZUK AND PAWŁOWSKI: “And do you know why? I've lost eight elections in a row before and I'm still the leader. But no one will let me lose this election. That's the difference between PiS and PO. This is a democratic party that gives me all the instruments and says: 'Fight, man!' But no one will let me lose this election, the next one, or the presidential election. No one will give me another chance.”

-- WINNING BY EVEN ONE SEAT - SCHETYNA CONTINUES: “During the protests in defense of the courts, when people wanted to be together because they intuitively knew that PO alone might not be enough. My dream and goal is to win the European Parliament elections by even one percentage point, by one seat. To show public opinion that the decomposition of PiS is starting, so that Kaczyński cannot come out and say that he has won another election in a row.”

-- SCHETYNA ON TUSK'S INITIATIVE AND THE SENATE: “I don't want to understand it that way. In the case of the Senate elections, it could be an element supporting a large coalition.”

-- THERE WILL BE A BIGGER PROBLEM WITH THE PROGRAMMATIC AGREEMENT IN OCTOBER, BUT I DON'T WANT TO OPEN THAT NOW - SCHETYNA CONTINUES: “Agreed, the problem will be bigger with the programmatic agreement before October, and perhaps not everyone will want to join. However, I don't want to open that now. It will be a serious challenge that we will have to deal with in July and August. Now we are talking about the European elections, and it is much easier to build a common program for these elections.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/03/12/schetyna-wybory-europejskie-kampania-wywiad/

-- BIEDROŃ'S PROPOSAL IS BENEFICIAL FOR THE OPPOSITION - RAFAŁ MATYJA IN CONVERSATION WITH ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Including politicians like Belka, Cimoszewicz, or Miller on the lists is a signal that the European Coalition (KE) wants to be a representation of the elite that ruled Poland. Therefore, it is beneficial that alongside the opposition consolidated around PO, we also have another entity in the form of Biedroń. Those voters who do not support PiS but do not want to think about politics in the 'control-alt-delete' convention, meaning 'undo', have someone to vote for.”

-- YOUNG CANDIDATES ARE BIEDROŃ'S CHANCE - MATYJA SAYS IN KL: “No, I'm consciously talking about balance. Candidates, including the lead candidates on the lists, should be diverse – under forty and over sixty. So far, the under-forties are not visible. This is a certain chance for Robert Biedroń.”

-- AN OPERATION ON A SCALE WE HAVEN'T SEEN - MATYJA ON THE NEW 500 PLUS: “PiS has undertaken a bold action to simply give people money before the elections. Not promise, but give. The first stage of this operation will be seen in May, when the 'thirteenth pensions' will be paid out before the European elections. The second, when before the national elections, parents will receive an additional 500 zlotys for their first child. This is an operation on a scale we haven't seen before. Moreover, if PiS still fares worse despite this, which is also possible, the party will use various means to stay in power. The KNF and Srebrna cases – especially the latter – have significantly raised the stakes of the elections.”

-- KACZYŃSKI WILL DO EVERYTHING NOT TO GIVE UP POWER - MATYJA CONTINUES: “Since taking power, PiS has been looking for a way to attack Donald Tusk, which seemed easy enough given that Tusk had been prime minister for seven years. Jarosław Kaczyński was never prime minister, which makes it difficult to bring formal charges against him or drag him to the prosecutor's office after a change of government. This has changed in recent weeks. Secondly, if there were a change of government, what the prosecutor's office is doing today will also be subject to evaluation. Both these factors add gravity to the consequences of the elections. Therefore, I believe that Jarosław Kaczyński will do everything not to give up power.”

-- TUSK'S ROOM FOR MANEUVER WILL BE KNOWN ON THE EVENING OF MAY 26 - MATYJA CONTINUES IN KL: “Of course, but Tusk's room for maneuver will be known on the evening of May 26 or during the day on May 27. A strong victory for the KE over PiS would significantly strengthen Schetyna's position. A near tie would not, and a defeat would allow Tusk to make a significant move on the political chessboard.”

-- MATYJA ON TUSK'S POSSIBLE MANEUVER: “We can quite easily imagine what Tusk will do – he will point, let's say, to 10 people from the intellectual elite or well-known local government officials who will join the opposition camp. His image and the 'swords' he brings will be the capital intended to tip the scales of victory. Therefore, then – and we return to the beginning of the conversation – the question arises what Katarzyna Lubnauer, Włodzimierz Czarzasty, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, and ordinary members of PO will do. Will they say to Schetyna: 'Grzegorz, we trust you,' or will they decide that Donald Tusk has a good idea, and call for Schetyna's resignation. Then we will find ourselves in a new reality.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/03/12/matyja-wywiad-schetyna-koalicja-europejska-kaczynski/

-- KACZYŃSKI'S "FIVE FOR POLAND" WILL SOFTEN THE ECONOMIC BRAKE - Marek Chądzyński in DGP: “During election campaigns, the government will maintain a decent economic situation. However, a slowdown cannot be avoided. These conclusions can be drawn from reading the latest projection by the National Bank of Poland. For the NBP, Kaczyński's 'Five for Poland' is important enough that it was included in the document, even though the so-called 'cut-off date', after which new information is not included in the projection, was February 15th. The PiS convention, where plans to extend 500 plus to every first child and pay the 13th pension were presented, took place a week later.” https://gospodarka.dziennik.pl/news/artykuly/593297,piatka-kaczynskiego-gospodarka-pieniadze-polityka-pis-emerytura-nbp.html

-- PROFESSOR MIROSŁAWA MARODY ON ANGER AT REALITY - says in an interview with Jakub Bodziony in Kultura Liberalna: “Look, in our country, even teachers, who are not a very politically active group, decide to strike for material and dignity reasons, which could jeopardize students' exams. These are everyday problems of individuals that they cannot solve on their own and for which they expect solutions from the state. (...) I am convinced that support for these movements was generated by growing anger at reality. Because people are not concerned with the conflict between Grzegorz Schetyna and Jarosław Kaczyński.”

-- FOR WHOM WILL THE ANGER AT REALITY WORK - MARODY CONTINUES TO BODZIONY: “It might work on the principle of 'let's try something else.' Since PiS is clearly losing ground and has not fulfilled its promises... What do you mean? This is precisely what the government boasts about. The election slogan during the local government campaign was 'We keep our word,' and the flagship 500+ program has been implemented and will be expanded. Additionally, PiS is announcing tax relief for young people and a one-time 'thirteenth' payment for pensioners. But it's not just about money. PiS believes that if people are paid, they will consider them good uncles worth voting for. (...) The money received is treated as deserved, and there is no favor from the government here.”

-- THE DIGNITY ELEMENT IS FADING BECAUSE THEY PROMISED EVERYTHING WOULD CHANGE AND IT ENDED WITH 500 ZŁOTY - MARODY CONTINUES: “According to our research, the government's core electorate remains within the range of 20-30 percent. The dignity element, which PiS tapped into so well in 2015, is fading. I would rather say that they were promised that everything would change, and it ended with 500 zlotys. This is, of course, a nice addition, but it doesn't solve the main problem, which is the deficit of social respect.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/03/12/marody-500-nastroje-wybory-europejskie/

-- WELFARE DISTRIBUTION IS THE SECOND WAVE OF PRIVATIZATION - IT BUILDS NEITHER SOLIDARITY NOR EQUALITY - PAWŁOWSKI CONTINUES: “Instead of building a solidarity-based society, which PiS has been promising for years, it leads to a phenomenon we have termed in 'Kultura Liberalna' as the 'second wave of privatization.' Armed with cash from their own taxes, citizens are expected to look after themselves and their families. This applies not only to education. Money from social transfers is used not only for private tutoring but also, for example, for private healthcare. Instead of fixing the public system, it's easier to rely on private companies. Such actions build neither equality nor solidarity. The announced 'thirteenth' pension for retirees works on the exact same principle. Of course, a few hundred or even a thousand zlotys extra will please everyone, but it won't permanently improve people's living standards. This would require a real change in the functioning of the pension system, and the supposedly all-powerful and reformist PiS has clearly abandoned setting such ambitious goals. It's easier to put on a band-aid by sending a transfer than to cure the disease by introducing real reforms.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/03/12/pawlowski-pis-program-transfery-socjalne-prywatyzacja/

-- THE OPPOSITION HAS BEEN CLEVERLY TRAPPED BY KACZYŃSKI - KATARZYNA KOLENDA-ZALESKA in GW: “Jarosław Kaczyński has very cleverly cornered the European Coalition. By accusing it of an imaginary attack on the family and children, he forced them to define their position. This is a difficult matter for the KE. It's not for nothing that Civic Platform (PO) avoided worldview topics like the plague. Built by conservatives and left-wing liberals, it had to maintain a fragile balance for fear of disintegration. The PiS leader knows that unease might arise among the rural voters, wondering if voting for the European Coalition is really a good idea. Perhaps it's better not to vote at all? And for PiS, this would be excellent news – they would retain their core electorate and demobilize the opposition.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24538866,pis-schwytal-opozycje-w-siec-lgbt.html

-- PIS IS PUSHING THE OPPOSITION TO THE LEFT - ADAM LESZCZYŃSKI in OKO: “PO is being forced to defend the rights of gays and lesbians, something the party has never been willing to do before. PO is a coalition of various electorates, some with conservative views. When it was in power, it consistently prevented the liberalization of abortion law and did not allow (despite various political maneuvers) the legalization of registered partnerships. The electorate in Poland is generally more conservative than left-wing: more votes are to be gained on the right than on the left (we wrote extensively about this here). A more left-wing PO, and what's more – more left-wing against the will of its own leaders – will be a weaker opponent.”

-- ELECTIONS CAN BE WON WITH DISGUSTING METHODS TOO - LESZCZYŃSKI'S CONCLUSION: “PiS's election strategy is naturally risky: perhaps Poles have become so accustomed to the demands of LGBT+ movements that they no longer consider them unnatural, and it will be difficult to evoke in them the outrage with which PiS wants to win the elections. Especially if the Platform – and the entire European Coalition – can react strongly enough. We also haven't mentioned that basing a campaign on hate towards one group – whether refugees or gays – is disgusting and immoral. But elections can also be won with disgusting and immoral techniques.” https://oko.press/pis-wygra-na-szczuciu-gejem-i-lesbijka-mozliwe-oto-w-jaki-sposob/

-- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT PIS HAS A CORRECT INTUITION IN ATTACKING TRZASKOWSKI'S STANCE: “It would require a lack of elementary political sensibility within the ranks of Law and Justice not to seize this opportunity. For two reasons. Firstly, which is not insignificant despite appearances, this is a real issue that is close to the hearts of many PiS politicians. It's a feeling of genuine, not theatrical, fear that in a moment we will wake up in a city (country) where the aforementioned 'LGBT community plenipotentiaries' will be a kind of commissars in schools, and from semester to semester, this will be increasingly visible and effective in the curriculum. I think, moreover, that the social emotions were accurately – and coolly – identified here, which do not lie with presidents Trzaskowski and Rabiej, let alone the colorful representatives of the LGBT community. There's also no hiding the fact that the issue was deliberately amplified, accurately diagnosing that this is a matter that can help rally a certain segment of the electorate to the polls.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/437479-sprawa-lgbt-czyli-oboz-iii-rp-w-politycznych-kleszczach

-- PIS CROSSES ANOTHER BARRIER IN INCITING HATRED - PRZEMYSŁAW WILCZYŃSKI in TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “So, PiS is defending many Polish families from themselves. And incidentally, it crosses another barrier in the work of inciting Poles against each other. Now, Polish children and youth have been invited to the carnage: there are 'those under the umbrella' and those 'creating the rainbow.' One can only hope that this division is merely a product of a sick political imagination.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/parasolem-w-dzieci-157944

-- TOMASZ PIETRYGA in RZ: TRZASKOWSKI SEES REALITY THROUGH THE LENSES OF RAINBOW IDEOLOGY: “The political cost of such a charge could be high. Because what is fitting for activists of left-wing associations is not fitting for a city mayor. He should not view reality solely through the lenses of rainbow ideology. If Rafał Trzaskowski, by agreeing to the adoption of declarations contrary to our socio-cultural code, wanted to fight intolerance, he took a counterproductive step – he created an excellent platform for generating social tensions. By arousing opposition and a sense of threat among at least that group of parents who simply do not want progressive education in schools. And this has little to do with tolerance.” https://www.rp.pl/Opinie/303119889-Teczowe-okulary-prezydenta-Trzaskowskiego---komentuje-Tomasz-Pietryga.html

-- THE OPPOSITION IS LETTING ITSELF BE PLAYED BY THE LGBT CARD INSTEAD OF RESPONDING TO APOCALYPTIC VISIONS - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA in RZ: “However, the scale of this crusade depends primarily on good counter-proposals from the opposition, and there are none yet – rather, they are letting themselves be played by the LGBT card instead of responding to apocalyptic visions. Meanwhile, the idea of becoming the sole rightful 'children of the Round Table' on the occasion of June 4 will not help in this regard, if only because it will be realized after the European elections.” https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/303119931-Dabrowska-Inkwizycja-kontra-technokraci-z-UE.html&template=restricted

-- GAY-EUROPE ACCORDING TO KACZYŃSKI - Wojciech Karpieszuk in GW: “In Russia, they scare people with 'gay-Europe' during every election. Now Kaczyński is resorting to this bogeyman. Appeals to PiS politicians to read the documents they criticize are pointless. They are not interested in a substantive discussion, but in political benefits from inciting fear and anxiety.” http://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,24539114,gejewropa-wedlug-kaczynskiego-czyli-jak-pis-manipuluje-deklaracja.html

-- MATH LESSON FOR SUSKI - Justyna Suchecka in GW: “Since Suski insists on comparing teachers and MPs, let him do it honestly and compare their base salaries (I assume he would be afraid to compare them with additional benefits). Then the 8,000 PLN should be compared to the base salary of teachers, which is regulated by Minister Anna Zalewska. And for certified teachers, this is currently 3483 PLN gross. Is the difference between MPs and teachers still small?” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24537787,czy-nauczyciel-i-posel-zarabiaja-podobnie-marek-suski-pogubil.html

-- JACEK KARNOWSKI ON LOBBYING FOR SUNDAY TRADING BAN: “The debate will certainly not hurt, but it's worth warning the PiS leadership against hasty decisions. This matter has been debated not so much honestly from the very beginning, but rather we are dealing with extremely intense lobbying. I don't know what portion of publications on this topic honestly describe the problem, and what is part of planned PR and lobbying campaigns, but certainly the latter are much more numerous. This is evident at a glance. (...) So, let's consider everything thoroughly before we throw out the baby with the bathwater. A change aimed at the family, but also at a calmer, more Western rhythm of life.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/spoleczenstwo/437557-pamietajmy-ze-z-zakazem-handlu-w-niedziele-walcza-miliardy

-- PAWEŁ BRAVO ON ADAM BODNAR'S SITUATION: “One should not be fooled by the calm tone of this statement. We have not heard such a dramatic accusation of political anomie and the appropriation of state functions by party politics in a long time. Bodnar has long served as almost the last impartial official at the central level, focused on the citizen's well-being. He firmly pointed out abuses of power, as that is the mission of his office, but he did not arouse suspicion that he was doing so because he favored the current opposition and intended to apply preferential treatment towards them in the future. 'The fever of political disputes' is a euphemistic term for the fact that even this safeguard of a just state is subject solely to the logic of party bargaining. Bodnar is, unfortunately, right: PiS will not let him off. They have long declared their intention to get rid of him. And if the current opposition were to win the Sejm elections in the autumn, it would require bargaining and evasiveness (e.g., regarding ensuring that the post-election 'butchering of the herd' does not violate the civil rights of the currently ruling party).” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/nie-ma-miejsca-na-bodnara-157947

-- WE ARE ALREADY COLLECTING THEIR NAMES - LESZEK BALCEROWICZ in conversation with Ewa Ivanova in GW: “We cannot make the same mistake as after the previous PiS governments. Ziobro's prosecutors, who are ruining other people's lives, will have to be held accountable honestly. We are already collecting their names.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24538889,leszek-balcerowicz-tym-razem-juz-nie-bedzie-bezkarnosci.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Janina Ochojska, Grzegorz Witkowski, Mariusz Staniszewski, Thomas Orchowski.


Łukasz Mężyk