state of play: 03/09/2019

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Zaremba: The Pomp of Social Transfers Seems the Surest Recipe for Continued Rule, Chrabota: PiS's 'Five' Like Evita Peron's Reign, Karnowski: Unnecessary Circus with the Board, Should Have Been Ridiculed

Łukasz Mężyk

-- LODZ WANTS TO KEEP 100 THOUSAND UKRAINIANS - front page of Dziennik Łódzki.

-- PITERA RESIGNS FROM CANDIDACY, NEW KPRM CLIP, PIS CONVENTION TODAY WITH KACZYŃSKI AND MORAWIECKI - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/03/09/

-- AGNIESZKA POMASKA WRITES TO THE CEO OF BIEDRONKA REGARDING THE LEAK OF SURVEILLANCE RECORDING OF DULKIEWICZ IN A STORE: "Agnieszka Pomaska writes to the CEO of the Biedronka chain. 'Unethical and security-breaching behavior.' 'What consequences do you foresee for the individuals who made the recording public?' asks MP Agnieszka Pomaska in a letter to the CEO of the Biedronka discount chain."

-- HE HELD A NOOSE WITH AN MEP, YET WORKED FOR THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE - EWA IVANOVA IN GW: "Jakub Kalus held a noose with a photo of MEP Michał Boni during a nationalist picket. At the time, he was working for the Ministry of Justice. (...) The spokesperson for the Ministry of Justice, Jan Kanthak, did not respond to Gazeta Wyborcza's questions. However, Witold Cieśla, deputy director of the administrative law department at the Ministry, confirmed information about a nationalist working for Ziobro's ministry. Jakub Kalus was seconded to the ministry from the District Court in Gliwice, where he was then employed as a judge's assistant. In the Ministry, he received the position of chief specialist."

-- IVANOVA ASKS IF THE DELAY IN THE INVESTIGATION IS RELATED TO THE EMPLOYMENT OF A NATIONALIST IN THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE: "Is the delay in the prosecutor's office's decision related to the fact that one of the individuals involved in the 2017 events was Jakub Kalus, who was working for the Ministry of Justice? Marta Zawada-Dybek reiterated that 'the prosecutor does not have the full evidentiary material necessary for substantive decisions. And that the connections between the picket incident and the threats directed at MEPs are being clarified.'"

-- TEACHERS APPEAR LESS ELECTORALLY ATTRACTIVE TO PIS THAN RETIREES AND PARENTS - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN PTT: "Prime Minister Morawiecki, and in reality Jarosław Kaczyński, made their choice. They considered the several hundred thousand teachers to be a less attractive electorate at the ballot box than all retirees or parents. Thus, they abandoned the pursuit of incremental civilizational progress in favor of electoral bribery."

-- THE CIVILIZATIONAL CHOICE OF THE PARTY LEADER AND PRIME MINISTER, BASED ON PURELY POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: "It will not help to incite hostility towards 'schoolteachers' among the most fervent supporters of this government. The same was done towards parents of disabled people or other groups that 'obstructed' the government's policy so much that they had to be pushed aside. I say: this is a civilizational choice. The PiS leader and the prime minister are making it based on ad hoc and purely political considerations."

-- PIOTR ZAREMBA ON PIS NOT OVERCOMING IMPOSSIBILITY - writes in RZ: "PiS has shown that it can find money. But it has not yet proven that it can overcome the state's impossibility for good."

-- PMM ALSO WANTS TO CHANGE THE PAST BECAUSE HE ONCE WARNED AGAINST EXCESSIVE SPENDING - ZAREMBA: "The Prime Minister wants to change not only the present but also the past. We hear that he never warned against the spending that burdens development. However, he did warn – at closed PiS meetings as Deputy Prime Minister for the economy. He was even reprimanded for it by the very 'socially-minded' then-Prime Minister Beata Szydło."

-- THE EASE OF FINDING 20 BILLION UNDERSCORES THE POINTLESSNESS OF ALL DEBATES ON THE STATE OF FINANCES - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: "The ease with which 20 billion, and potentially 40 billion in the future, was 'found' undermines the point of all debates about the state of Polish finances. Not long ago, politicians of this government were refusing far smaller sums for various groups and purposes."

-- THERE IS SOME TRUTH TO THE FACT THAT THIS GOVERNMENT HAS MOST OFTEN KEPT ITS WORD - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: "Supporters of this government recall that it has most often kept its word. There is some truth to this. The question is whether this will be possible indefinitely. Among the ideological supporters of PiS, there is enthusiasm. There are few economists among them, but arguments from a greatly vulgarized Keynesian school are emerging: demand at all levels should drive the economy, thus increasing common income and serving the common good. This is at least a controversial thesis, and it can certainly be reduced to absurdity."

-- ZAREMBA ON THE OPPOSITION'S EXHAUSTING ARGUMENTS: "In one breath, they accuse PiS of electoral corruption, warning against Poland becoming another Venezuela, and then recall that they themselves supported some of the most costly proposals from the 'Five' – starting with 500+ for the first child. The contortions of these positions deserve ridicule. At the same time, the social declarations are a precursor to something more lasting. Donald Tusk was recently pressed by Adam Michnik himself why he didn't come up with an idea similar to 500+ when he was in power. He admitted in response that he had underestimated the changes in the attitude of Polish society, but he did not invoke his liberal, free-market views at all. The observation that Poles want to participate more in consuming the fruits of transformation was already made in a tapped conversation long before the 2015 elections by Tusk's associate Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz, but without any effect at the time."

-- ZAREMBA ON TUSK'S PROTECTIVE EVOLUTION: "The policy of his second government was more protective than the first. His team then focused on certain elements of pro-family policy. In addition, some PO members evolved in other areas, as Jan Krzysztof Bielecki was capable of hinting at the repolonization of large Polish companies."

-- THE POMP OF SOCIAL TRANSFERS IS THE SUREST RECIPE FOR CONTINUED RULE - ZAREMBA: "The pomp of social transfers seems the surest recipe for continued rule. And who is to review it? Opposition leaders who accept this logic or are unaware of their own views? When I wrote the first article illustrating this mechanism, readers interpreted it most simply. I presented Kaczyński as a cynic devoid of state instinct, fighting for power, and Morawiecki as someone accepting the role of a tool. The matter is more complicated."

-- ZAREMBA ON THE CRUTCH OF STRONG POWER: "A former student of the state theorist Prof. Stanisław Erlich studied this issue even scientifically. But the fact that he decides on the distribution of rather insignificant positions in State Treasury companies from his office on Nowogrodzka Street does not mean he truly grasps the state. In this situation, social transfers become not only an electoral cover for cosmetic changes in other areas (and incidentally for keeping PiS in power). They also become a kind of crutch for strong power over Poland."

-- HE BROKE THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF THE REPUBLIC IN SEVERAL AREAS - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: "Whatever one says about the party pathologies of his style of government, he has broken the impossibility of the Republic in several areas. Now, one can only ask a perverse question. What if someone tries to change the direction of policy in the opposite way? Because those will turn out to be a ball and chain, a brake on development. Impossibility is when conscious policy is replaced by inertia. Can the budget being cemented with gifts for citizens be subjected to even a sensible debate? For now, only representatives of niche groups dare to discuss it: Robert Gwiazdowski, Janusz Korwin-Mikke, Paweł Kukiz, sometimes experts. In this sense, the most serious change is as impressive as it is treacherous."

-- IT IS NOT ANTI-CYCLICAL ACTION BUT A PERMANENT BURDEN ON TAXPAYERS' POCKETS - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW: "Even if the demand stimulus works in the short term and adds a fraction of a percentage point to next year's growth, the once-decreed expenditures will remain in the budget. Therefore, this is not anti-cyclical action at all, but a permanent burden on taxpayers' pockets. The money promised by Kaczyński and Morawiecki will be lacking for other purposes – for teachers' salary increases, cancer treatment, higher benefits for the disabled and their caregivers."

-- THE PRESIDENT IS BOTHERED BY 7% IN POLLS - AGNIESZKA KUBLIK ON THE SLOW DECLINE OF PIS RATINGS: "PiS consoles itself that one tape affair of Kaczyński will not harm the party in the polls for long. They are right. One won't, but a cumulation of affairs will. In the polls of several research firms, PiS has been steadily losing a little bit over the past year. According to the average calculated from all polls, PiS support has decreased by 7 percentage points since the beginning of 2018. This is, of course, not a dramatic decline, but the alarm in PiS has rung loudly enough that they had to wave the electoral bait, called 'Kaczyński's Five', long before the parliamentary elections, which serves to make up for these losses (which PiS does not hide, by the way)."

-- THE CIRCUS OF CHASING THE BOARD WAS UNNECESSARY - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: "Incidentally, they are scheming whether they can provoke Law and Justice politicians. And here, unfortunately, it has succeeded a bit unnecessarily. This circus of chasing the board was unnecessary. It would have been better to stand by it together and ridicule this embarrassment. Although I also understand the striving for equal rules of the game: if the consent of the Sejm Chancellery has been required for every board in the Sejm for years, then no exception should be made here either."

-- IF THIS SYSTEM IS THE HEART OF DARKNESS, THEN OUR PUBLIC LIFE IS QUITE WELL OFF: "But let's leave politics aside. The most important conclusion is simple: if this is to be the heart of darkness, this 'Kaczyński system,' then our public life is quite well off."

-- WE WILL NOW GO EVERYWHERE - DOMINIKA DŁUGOSZ QUOTES A PIS POLITICIAN: "- I'm happy about this. It's worth going to a radio station with 25% listenership or a television station with a different narrative. After all, they have to do something about it now. They have 'their own' prime minister, recorded at their place, so they have to create material based on what he said - explains one of the deputy ministers. - This is an attempt to reach out to the media, which have a completely different narrative on a daily basis. We will now go everywhere - he assures."

-- WP ON THE GOOD RELATIONS BETWEEN MORAWIECKI AND KOSINIAK:

-- PIS DECIDED THE DECISIVE BATTLE WILL BE FOUGHT IN THE MIDDLE CLASS - ŁUKASZ LIPIŃSKI on the Polityka weekly portal: "PiS tried to regain the initiative back in December, but the party events somehow didn't quite break through to the voters. Now, 'Kaczyński's Five' is intended to achieve this goal, aiming to push 'Kaczyński's tapes' out of the media. At its election convention, PiS announced a program worth PLN 40 billion to flood the most electorally promising groups of voters with cash: parents (500+ without income criteria), youth (abolition of PIT for those under 26), pensioners (thirteenth salary), and so-called provincial Poland (money for bus services). The Five is supposedly Kaczyński's, but it's Morawiecki who is to sell it in the media. Secondly, PiS decided that the decisive battle for power will be fought in the middle class. It is primarily to them that PiS's promise is directed, that everyone in Poland will have a life at the European level. And to them, Morawiecki says that PiS is the party of peace and moderation, while the opposition incites unnecessary quarrels and throws sand in the gears."

-- POLITYKA ON KUKIZ'S COOPERATION WITH PIS AFTER THE ELECTIONS - Janek Rojewski: "These are conditions under which no coalition would be able to function, if only because a great many votes are held in the Sejm on matters smaller than those mentioned by Kukiz, in which coalitions must also work out a common stance. Therefore, even if PiS says it agrees to this or that concession, in reality, it will enter into an arrangement with Kukiz only to absorb him. Members of both groups agree with each other exceedingly often, and transfers along this line are nothing new. As a result, we would again have a majority PiS government, only with a more exotic composition. And Kukiz '15 voters would realize they had been duped."

-- IF THERE WAS A SHADOW OF A DOUBT REGARDING FR. JANKOWSKI, THE EPISCOPATE WOULD NOT REMAIN SILENT - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: "If there were even a shadow of doubt regarding the accusations against the priest, the natural reaction of the hierarchy would be to defend his good name. But the Episcopate is silent. Why? There can be only one answer: because they consider the accusations to be true. That is precisely why the decision of the Gdańsk councillors is justified and it is time to finally close the matter of the monument."

-- PAWEŁ WROŃSKI ON POLAND'S DECREASING COMPATIBILITY WITH NATO AND ALLIES: "In 2017, during the Dragon '17 exercises, reservists called up for training mockingly exchanged photos in 1967-model metal helmets. A year later, it turned out that the Ministry of National Defense was seriously considering the renovation of 318 T-72 tanks dating back to the Warsaw Pact era. On the 20th anniversary of Poland's accession to NATO, history is coming full circle. Except that the term 'compatible' is used less and less often in the Polish army. Perhaps because Poland has ceased to be compatible with the world, Europe, and its allies."

-- THE LEFT'S GOAL IS NOT TO REGAIN THE LABEL OF 'LEFTIST' BUT TO ACHIEVE PRAGMATIC AND ELECTORALLY MORE AMBITIOUS GOALS - AGNIESZKA DZIEMIANOWICZ-BĄK IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA - in an interview with Michał Sutowski: "The horizon of this 'true left' cannot be just 'talking about,' demanding, or postulating. Left-wing parties are also needed to genuinely raise the minimum wage, strengthen the role of trade unions, and introduce high-quality public services... To act, not just talk, and strive to do so in parliament and through the tools of parliamentary politics. Shifting discourse, introducing topics into public debate – these are very important tasks for the left, but a political party is not essential for their realization; this is a task for other types of entities. A leftist party, moreover, with significant public funds at its disposal, should, in my opinion, set itself more pragmatic and electorally ambitious goals than regaining the label of 'leftist.' Meanwhile, from the statements of Razem leaders justifying certain electoral-coalition decisions, one could infer that what is key for them is that the left materialized in this coalition will be the only true one, as opposed to other formations to the left of PO-PiS that do not use this label."

-- DZIEMIANOWICZ-BĄK ON WHY SHE SHOULD YIELD PLACE TO ZANDBERG: "Nevertheless, the indignation at the thought that I, not Adrian, should start from a leading position, especially for the European Parliament, is surprising to me. All the more so because I, not Adrian, have been involved in European policy in Razem for the past few years. It was I – of course, not alone, but with a team I created – who built the international coalition that Razem is part of today. I was the co-chair of that coalition. It was at my invitation that Janis Varufakis, Benoît Hamon, Isabelle Thomas came to Poland, to Razem, and I represented Razem at most international meetings. In short – it was simply my domain, in which I have rarely let the party down. So why would it be so glaring to put me instead of Zandberg – a leader instead of a leader, a woman instead of a man – in a leading position?"

-- JACEK GĄDEK IN GAZETA.PL ON KUJDA'S FILE: "A person from Jarosław Kaczyński's circle: - But he really didn't know. Another: - He wasn't surprised at all. It cannot be ruled out that Jarosław Kaczyński genuinely lived without knowing that Kujda was TW 'Ryszard.' But in the special services, which he supervised as prime minister, this knowledge existed. The PiS leader emphasized, as proof of his ignorance: 'when the restricted collection [IPN] was created, we were not in power.' This is true, because the SLD was ruling then. However, a month after Kaczyński became prime minister in 2006, Kujda's file was reviewed at the request or with the knowledge of the Internal Security Agency – a service subordinate to the prime minister."

-- ONLY 25% IN FAVOR OF A SUNDAY TRADING BAN, 36% IN FAVOR OF TRADING EVERY SUNDAY - SE POLL:

-- BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA COMPARES PIS'S 'FIVE' TO EVITA PERON'S REIGN IN RZ: "This demanding hell can only be appeased when a crisis arrives, but no government will survive it. And if there is no global crisis, we will inflict a local one on ourselves. What might it look like? I recommend the film from years ago, 'Evita.' It's a poem about how insane populism ruined one of the wealthiest countries in the world. It's really worth watching."

-- ADAM SZOSTKIEWICZ CRITICIZES THE WARSAW BISHOPS' POSITION ON THE LGBT CHARTER: "The position taken by the Warsaw bishops is also disappointing because it can be interpreted as a political favor granted to the most philistine right-wing politicians, who will now sow hatred and fear of LGBT, just as they sowed hatred and fear of refugees to win elections three years ago."

-- BIRTHDAYS: Jarosław Krajewski, SUNDAY: Maksymilian Rigamonti, Michał Cichy, Anna Karaszewska, Joanna Osińska, Artur Jerzy Dunin turns 50.


Łukasz Mężyk