state of play: 03/02/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Zaremba on the opposition's weak programs: This, not the right's great talents or achievements, could decide that things stay as they are; Flis on the European Coalition: A new structure made of old politicians who resemble a review of vario

Łukasz Mężyk

-- TOMORROW MARKS THE 85TH BIRTHDAY OF JACK KUROŃ.

-- ANNA BIKONT AND HELENA ŁUCZYWO'S BOOK ABOUT JACK KUROŃ AS AN EBOOK: http://www.publio.pl/jacek-helena-luczywo,p182828.html

-- THE PRIME MINISTER WHO WINS ELECTIONS DOESN'T CHANGE - JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI'S MOST IMPORTANT STATEMENTS FROM RMF: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/03/02/ -- POLLSTER SURVEY FOR SE: Prawo i Sprawiedliwość - 38% Koalicja Europejska - 32% Wiosna - 12% Kukiz'15 - 8% Koalicja Propolska - 4% Razem - 3% Polska Fair Play - 2% Ruch Prawdziwa Europa - 1% https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/nowy-sondaz-dla-se-nie-pozostawia-zludzen-koalicji-europejskiej-bez-biedronia-nie-pokonaja-pis-aa-428y-Epgj-4TMs.html

-- I AM SERIOUSLY CONSIDERING THE PROPOSAL FROM THE EUROPEAN COALITION - JANINA OCHOJSKA IN A CONVERSATION WITH WOJCIECH PELOWSKI IN GW: “Firstly, I received a proposal from the European Coalition, which I am seriously considering, but I haven't officially accepted it yet. I asked myself why and for what purpose I would want to go to the European Parliament. The answer is one - for the people for whom I have been working for 26 years. For those who are starving, who lack access to water, for people living in areas affected by catastrophes and wars.

-- OCHOJSKA ON THE ENGINEERING OF FEAR OF REFUGEES: “I always compare it to the communist era. Back then, the ruling party used fear, for example, of an external - implicitly German - invasion. It was very easy to rule a frightened society. Now there is a need for easy governance again, so the refugee has become such a scarecrow. Fear was exploited and the conviction was sown in people's minds that we must defend our values. In the election campaign, they said: we will not let them in, we will 'ensure Poles' safety.' Implicitly - with refugees, our children would not be safe on their way to school.”

-- THE EU IS THE LARGEST DONOR OF HUMANITARIAN AID - OCHOJSKA ON THE EU CONTEXT: “The European Union was built on certain values. One of them was solidarity with those most in need. I believe that the Union is moving away from these values because it is increasingly focused on money. Quick politics and quick results are increasingly important. But it must also be emphasized that the Union is the largest donor of humanitarian and development aid.” http://wyborcza.pl/magazyn/7,124059,24507559,janina-ochojska-jestem-dumna-z-polakow.html

-- THE EUROPEAN COALITION PARTIES ARE ARTICULATING ALL THESES SIMULTANEOUSLY - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN PTT: “However, this is the essence of current politics. Grzegorz Schetyna, the leader of PO, presents both arguments in some interviews consecutively. To all those who worry that the shape of a future anti-PiS coalition means combining programmatic fire and water, the left and pro-social farmers with liberals from PO and ultraliberals from Nowoczesna, I would remind them that the parties forming this bloc have trouble agreeing with themselves. And not even in the sense that there are disputes and factions emerging within them. No, it's simply that these parties are trying to articulate all theses simultaneously. And the dominant party, namely Platforma, is a master of such, often very primitive, acrobatics.”

-- INTERNAL CONTRADICTIONS OF THE EC ARE LESS DISTURBING IN THE CASE OF EUROPEAN ELECTIONS - ZAREMBA FURTHER IN PTT: “Internal contradictions in the program and stance of the united opposition are less disturbing in the case of European elections. For now, the forming bloc has focused on dividing mandates, which is very difficult given the limited number of first and second positions in 13 districts, with many hungry entities and many political celebrities to appease. But we already know that the program will be general. It will be reduced to fighting for a 'larger European budget,' which was included in the founding declaration. And to the constantly repeated warning that PiS 'wants a Polexit.' This is not so irritating because we already roughly know the views and attitudes on European matters.”

-- THE LACK OF SPACE FOR ALTERNATIVE POLICIES FURTHER EXPOSES THE EMPTINESS AND WEAKNESS OF THE OPPOSITION'S PROGRAMS, AND THIS, NOT THE RIGHT'S GREAT TALENTS OR ACHIEVEMENTS, MAY DECIDE THAT THINGS REMAIN AS THEY ARE THIS AUTUMN - ZAREMBA FURTHER: “Worse still, the united opposition has absolutely no idea what to promise Poles in terms of a vision for Poland itself. To some extent, PiS is pushing it against the wall by solidifying further fragments of our budget for years to come. But this lack of space for alternative policies further exposes the intellectual emptiness, the weakness of the opposition's party programs. And this, not the great talents or achievements of the right, may decide that things remain as they are. In the parliamentary elections this autumn.”

-- PIS ACTS LIKE BIEDROŃ - MASKING AN ATTEMPT AT A CONSERVATIVE COUNTER-REVOLUTION WITH GENEROUS SOCIAL BENEFITS - ZAREMBA IN PTT: “Who, in their right mind, would withdraw from the gigantic spending on 500 plus after taking power? Or the thirteenth pension for retirees? The situation is further complicated by the participation of the new formation Wiosna in this bidding. I suspect that what genuinely interests Robert Biedroń is an ideological and worldview revolution. But to pave the way for it, he is bidding high in the sphere of redistributing social welfare funds; some elements of the 'five' are directly taken from Wiosna's program. Because PiS is acting similarly, masking an attempt at a conservative counter-revolution with generous social benefits.” https://polskatimes.pl/piotr-zaremba-zjednoczona-opozycja-kompletnie-nie-wie-jaka-wizje-polski-nam-obiecac/ar/13927874

-- PIOTR ZAREMBA WRITES IN DGP THAT KACZYŃSKI IS KEEPING MORAWIECKI IN CHECKMATE, NOT ALLOWING HIM HIS OWN GAMES: “The stories about the dangers hanging over Morawiecki are exaggerated by opposition newspapers like 'Newsweek.' Much suggests that politicians who dislike the prime minister (Zbigniew Ziobro? Members of the PC order?) on the one hand, and the prime minister's entourage, which is prone to frequent panics, on the other, are participating in creating such an atmosphere. Sometimes the information is false. On the internet, news about a PiS meeting at Jarosław Kaczyński's after Israel Katz's statement and the decision to withdraw from the summit in Jerusalem appeared on the day when no one was meeting about anything, and the PiS leader was not even in the office. However, it cannot be ruled out that some rumors are generated with the knowledge and consent of the 'Chief.' He thus keeps the prime minister in checkmate, not allowing him to engage in his own games. Although in some weeks, they meet face-to-face almost daily.”

-- THE POSSIBLE RESIGNATION OF CZAPUTOWICZ WOULD BE A SYMBOLIC DEFEAT FOR PMM - ZAREMBA FURTHER IN DGP: “He also fails to notice that the pro-Israeli overzealousness is merely a result of the policy he himself devised and endorsed. In the courtly model, the ruler does not bear the consequences of his choices, and ministers are held accountable for faulty details. Rumors about the resignation of Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz in May are therefore quite credible. And it would be a symbolic defeat for the prime minister, as this Foreign Minister was chosen to mitigate the impression of diplomacy being dominated by aggressive rhetoric directed inwards at Poland. But the decision-making process does not involve partner negotiations between number one and number two, Kaczyński and Morawiecki.”

-- BRUDZIŃSKI WILL GAIN TIME AND OPPORTUNITIES TO INFLUENCE DOMESTIC POLICY - ZAREMBA ON SUSPICIONS WITHIN CIRCLES AROUND PMM: “The prime minister's entourage does not believe that Brudziński's move to Brussels is a success. They suspect that the leader's associate, now Morawiecki's subordinate, will gain time and opportunities after May to influence domestic policy, interfere in the party apparatus's activities, and prepare for a swift return. The point is, the truth may be neither one nor the other. Kaczyński has certainly not abandoned his favorite associate. As early as 2010, when he ran for president, he was preparing him as a potential successor. But the PiS leader generally avoids resolving such rivalries prematurely; indeed, he likes to generate them. It's hard to believe his decision to quickly withdraw from politics himself. Unless we don't know something.”

-- PIS HAS PROVEN TO BE, TO SOME EXTENT, TEFLON-LIKE, PERMANENTLY CONNECTED TO POLES - ZAREMBA FURTHER: “Kaczyński can afford such an ostentatious prioritization of party logic over state logic. The losses incurred in recent months are undeniable; one could add the survey effect of pre-election opposition unity, but given the power of the artillery barrage from domestic media and foreign institutions, as well as the multitude of defeats and mistakes, they are not so great. PiS has proven to be permanently connected to Poles, somewhat Teflon-like, even if this effect is weakening.”

-- ZAREMBA ON THE LIMITATIONS IMPOSED ON MORAWIECKI BY THE NEW SOCIAL COURSE: “Even if Mateusz Morawiecki were to inherit power over the party and Poland from Kaczyński one day, he would not be able to easily step off this course. If only because most of the state's current commitments to Poles are permanent in nature. It will not be easy for the current opposition to limit them in the future, nor for PiS itself. The former bank president must know the price of such a model. How much of him is in this latest offensive? Small fragments, and moreover, the least concrete ones, when he announces a reduction in labor costs or infrastructure improvements.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykuly/592564,morawiecki-delfin-pis-kaczynski-rozdawnictwo-piotr-zaremba.html

-- DR JAROSŁAW FLIS ON THE EUROPEAN COALITION CREATING A NEW STRUCTURE FROM OLD POLITICIANS WHO AT TIMES RESEMBLE A REVIEW OF VARIOUS PATHOLOGIES - tells Michał Sutowski in Krytyka Polityczna: “If PO had thanked Ewa Kopacz and chosen, for example, Rafał Trzaskowski as leader – perhaps something would have changed. Because contrary to appearances, when you pour new wine into old wineskins, it sometimes works in politics. It's not a bad idea to revitalize old parties with new people. The problem with the European Coalition today, however, is that they are creating a new structure from old politicians who at times resemble a review of various pathologies.” https://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/wywiad-eurowybory-flis/ -- REDISTRIBUTION AS THE MAIN FACTOR DRIVING POLITICAL DYNAMICS - LUDWIK DORN in TVN24 magazine: “Even some journalists not belonging to the propaganda arm of Law and Justice believed that PiS had 'covered up' its numerous problems (KNF affair, Kaczyński tapes, etc.) and 'tempted fate' because unprecedented amounts of electoral handouts in the Third Polish Republic's history had buried everything. Political marketing is important, but it should not be confused with politics, and Kaczyński's 'five,' the reactions to it, what preceded it, and what can be expected in the future, say a lot about Polish politics. Above all, that one of the main factors driving political dynamics is the redistribution of national income, detached from any concept of social policy and subordinated solely to electoral considerations.”

-- THE ONLY CRITERION FOR DISTRIBUTING THE 'SAUSAGE' IS ELECTORAL VIABILITY - DORN ON PRE-ELECTION LOGIC: “Within the framework of pre-election logic, the sole criterion for distributing the 'sausage' is predicted electoral viability. On the one hand, we have, especially in the public sector, powerful service sectors that will fall into increasingly severe crisis without wage increases (teachers, white-collar healthcare workers, administrative staff in courts), and on the other, truly and permanently disadvantaged groups – for example, families with disabled children and disabled adults. However, their electoral viability is either negligible or significantly lower than the groups to whom PiS has offered consumption of 'cured meats.' Of course, teachers are a numerous group – currently around 490,000 people, but due to the perturbations in implementing the education reform, they are not enthusiastically inclined towards PiS, so the gain in votes from pay rises would be small. And above all, how can they compare to pensioners – 8.2 million votes.”

-- APART FROM HANDOUTS, THE RULING CAMP HAS NOTHING TO OFFER - DORN FURTHER: “The numerous chains of electoral 'sausage' distributed according to the criterion of electoral viability reveal an important truth about PiS rule. Apart from these, the ruling camp has nothing to offer. Prime Minister Morawiecki's 'Strategy for Responsible Development' was a pleasant fairy tale in its beginnings, and the course of events has turned it into a babbling and tedious ramble, symbolized by the rusting keel of a Polish Baltic Shipping ferry, which the prime minister himself ceremonially drove into the ground in 2017, announcing the dynamic process of rebuilding the Polish shipbuilding industry and reindustrializing Poland. Similarly, electromobility, an increase in the investment rate, and the Polish defense industry, which was supposed to become one of the driving forces of an innovative economy due to the technical modernization of the armed forces, lie dormant – we buy modern equipment (Patriots, HIMARS) from the Americans without offset or technology transfer.”

-- WE ARE NOT FACING A GREEK CATASTROPHE BUT STAGNATION AND WASTED TIME - DORN FURTHER: “We are not facing a catastrophe like the Greek crisis, but several years of developmental stagnation and wasted time. A serious conversation about Poland's development can be resumed when voters experience firsthand that they were only tempted with 'sausage,' and in reality, they received a shot of moonshine – it tastes good, makes one lively, but the hangover afterwards is long and painful.” https://www.tvn24.pl/magazyn-tvn24/obietnice-pis-sa-jak-bimber-milo-sie-pije-ale-kac-potem-potezny,201,3505

-- DR. JAROSŁAW JANIK ON THE JUDICIAL SYSTEM INHERITED FROM THE PRL - tells Eliza Olczyk in RZ: “So, in some places, we introduced changes, sometimes forcibly, copied from Europe, while other sectors were neglected, for example, the judiciary, which we inherited from the PRL. There was never a good opportunity to consider what needed to be changed in it. Now I know that it would need to be rebuilt from scratch, as Zbigniew Ziobro started doing so, but not very auspiciously.”

-- JANIK RECALLS THE PROPOSAL FOR A THIRTEENTH PENSION FOR RETIREES IN 2005: “In 2005, when it was already known that we would lose the elections, I tried to persuade him to spend the budget surplus – and it was considerable, around PLN 6 billion – to improve our election chances. I suggested, for example, that pensioners and retirees with the lowest benefits should receive a one-time allowance. Something like PiS's thirteenth pension, only we wanted to adhere to the 'zloty for a zloty' principle – the higher the benefit, the lower the allowance. Marek then said: 'No, this is the state; who governs is not important here. If I have some money, I simply want to reduce the debt.'” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/302289914-Krzysztof-Janik-Wymiar-sprawiedliwosci-trzeba-zbudowac-od-nowa-Zbigniew-Ziobro-zaczal-niefortunnie.html&template=restricted

-- ANGRY PARENTS AND HURT STUDENTS? ZALEWSKA WILL BENEFIT - SHE SPECIALIZED IN DIVIDING SCHOOL COMMUNITIES - JUSTYNA SUCHECKA IN GW: “However, such a form of protest seems particularly risky. Because if teachers want to have parents on their side – and they should, as education is a common cause – they must plan the strike in such a way as to minimize harm to children. This is very difficult. The fact that after 1989, a strike during matriculation exams only occurred once, in 1993, confirms this. The stakes are high, the risks are great. Angry parents, disappointed and hurt students? Only Minister Anna Zalewska, who in recent years has specialized in dividing school communities, will benefit from this.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24506573,strajk-nauczycieli-bez-wsparcia-rodzicow-nie-ma-szans.html

-- REBUILDING COMMUNITY IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE WE MUST HOLD ACCOUNTABLE THOSE WHO BROKE THE LAW; WE HAVE NO MORAL RIGHT TO LET SUCH THINGS GO - JOANNA MUCHA in conversation with Piotr Witwicki in RZ: “Rebuilding community will be incredibly difficult because we must hold accountable those who broke the law and the constitution. We have no moral right to let such things go. But accountability is not revenge. It is something completely different to reach out to people who support PiS and take actions that will be acceptable to them. They have the same right to their country, to Poland, as we do. Mending the community is dramatically difficult, but if we don't do it, we will rock this boat in all directions until it falls apart.”

-- WITWICKI TO MUCHA: NO ONE EXPECTS YOU TO OPENLY SAY YOU WILL VOTE FOR PARTNERSHIP UNIONS - FRAGMENT OF THE CONVERSATION: “– Everyone sees Platforma as it was ten years ago, and the party has changed a lot. It's not that we have a problem with doing certain things. Rafał Trzaskowski started his campaign by reaching out to women. Recently, he introduced in vitro, free nurseries, and an anti-smog program. These are our demands today.

– That's interesting, because no one from your side even wants to openly say whether you support partnership unions.

– The Sejm will vote on those projects that gain majority support.”

-- MUCHA BELIEVES IN A MAJORITY FOR PARTNERSHIP UNIONS: “I always tell voters: you must vote for specific people. This interview will be read by people who have different views. We should think of the Sejm as a certain emanation of what people think. I sometimes get the impression that there is an expectation for the Sejm to behave as opinion-making elites wish, rather than as people want. There is no need to standardize Platforma. We agree on many things, we differ on some, just like our voters. That is our strength, not a weakness. And returning to the question, I think that in the future Sejm, it will be possible to gain majority support for partnership unions.”

-- MUCHA ON SCHETYNA: “I used to say he was tough, but now – I would say he is thoughtful and responsible for the situation ahead of us.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/302289948-Joanna-Mucha-Platforma-Obywatelska-jest-kiepska-w-public-relations.html&template=restricted

-- SYLWIA SPUREK ON THE ACCEPTED STANDARD OF ABORTION UP TO 12 WEEKS - in conversation with Natalia Waloch in GW: “That's true. I routinely observe pregnant women's bellies being touched. We don't touch anyone's belly who isn't pregnant. The current abortion law provisions are among the most restrictive in Europe. UN committees dealing with women's rights and the rights of persons with disabilities issued a joint statement a few months ago, emphasizing that access to abortion is one aspect of women's reproductive rights, and in Poland, a woman can only terminate a pregnancy in three cases. In recent years, we have observed regular attempts to tighten this already restrictive law. This most affects women who want to terminate a pregnancy but cannot afford to travel abroad or have an illegal abortion in a private clinic in Poland. And in the 21st century, a woman must have the right to decide about her own body; we must liberalize the law. The accepted standard today is safe abortion up to 12 weeks.”

-- FOR WOMEN, THE SYSTEMIC TRANSFORMATION HAS NOT ENDED - SPUREK IN GW: “Women's rights are a litmus test for the quality of the systemic transformation in Poland. For women, it has not yet ended. During these 30 years, women have lost a lot, right from the very beginning, when the anti-abortion law was passed in 1993 despite massive protests. The transformation began with the restriction of women's rights. And 30 years later, in the 21st century, we are still discussing the basic rights of women that are not being realized!”

-- SPUREK ON THE MOTIVES FOR JOINING WIOSNA: “Over the past few days, I have received many calls and emails asking: why am I leaving a serious public office, why am I taking the risk of political activity? Of course, it was a difficult decision. But I accepted Robert Biedroń's invitation because I considered it to be the time when I should use my knowledge and experience within a new mission. I have been involved in defending human rights for years. I did this as an activist of a non-governmental organization, a civil servant, an academic, and a Deputy Ombudsman. For years, I have observed how inefficiently the state operates. I know now that if I want to start changing this effectively, it won't be from the outside. And since I have observed Robert's values for years and share them, the decision was obvious – Wiosna.”

-- SPUREK ON BIEDROŃ'S WORDS ABOUT DINOSAURS: “I don't nudge anyone, I don't shout at anyone; I have very gentle methods of communicating with people (laughter). We all know what Biedroń meant. Politics and government bodies lack committed individuals, those who are guided by concern for the common good, truly idealistic ones – those who engage in politics not for personal gain, but for the social good. I've known Robert for 17 years, and I know that discriminating against anyone was never his intention.” http://www.wysokieobcasy.pl/wysokie-obcasy/7,163229,24508019,kto-dotyka-mojego-brzucha-w-polsce-ciezarna-staje-sie-czyms.html

-- ROBERT MAZUREK ON BORUSEWICZ, WHO CAN'T STAND AGENTS - writes in RZ: “But I, for one, worry more about the principled Marshal Borusewicz, who cannot stand an agent's monument. Because, indeed, one should not idolize agents, one cannot erect monuments to them. Hmm, wait, can you really not? And whose name does the airport in Gdańsk bear? Just don't tell Borusewicz about it, or he'll get indignant, and we'll have to take off from Bydgoszcz.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/302289937-Robert-Mazurek-Dla-pedofilii-nie-ma-usprawiedliwienia.html&template=restricted

-- BIRTHDAYS: Katarzyna Kuczyńska-Budka, SUNDAY Kazimierz Janiak turns 60, Zbigniew Boniek.


Łukasz Mężyk