state of play: 03/01/2019
-- THIS DAY IN 2011:
Jolanta Brzeska, a social activist involved in defending evicted tenants, was murdered in Warsaw.
The state holiday, the National Day of Remembrance of the "Cursed Soldiers," was celebrated for the first time.
-- JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI ON RMF SATURDAY – BECAUSE THE "FIVE" PROGRAM CONSUMED THE ENTIRE DEBATE – SAYS A POLITICIAN FROM THE PRESIDENT'S CLOSEST CIRCLE TO 300POLITYKA: 300POLITYKA: PiS COMMISSION WILL APPOINT A CAMPAIGN STAFF TODAY: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/03/01/
-- SYLWIA SPUREK CONFIRMS SHE IS JOINING BIEDROŃ'S WIOSNA – GW: “It has been speculated for some time that Sylwia Spurek might join Robert Biedroń's party. 300polityka.pl wrote about it last week. When asked about these reports by 'Wyborcza,' Spurek replied: 'In a few days, I will present my professional plans.' http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24505465,sylwia-spurek-dolacza-do-wiosny-biedronia.html
-- AGATA KONDZIŃSKA AND IWONA SZPALA WRITE IN GW ABOUT THE AMBITIONS OF THE TWO MAIN BLOCKS: “Five years ago, PiS and PO drew. Each party took 19 seats. Now, the appetites on both sides are much larger. PiS politician: – We are counting on 22 to 25 seats. PO politician: – We want to have 25 to 27 seats.”
-- WIOSNA IS COUNTING ON 6 SEATS – FURTHER FROM GW: “Wiosna is aiming for 12% support in the European elections, which would give them six seats. They want to convince voters by talking about European values and the threats posed by a victory of Eurosceptics.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24504902,eurowybory-kto-powalczy-o-miejsce-w-brukseli.html
-- THE "FIVE" PROGRAM CALLS INTO QUESTION THE MODERNIZATION DREAMS INSPIRED BY MORAWIECKI'S PLAN – KRZYSZTOF MAZUR ON THE KLUBU JAGIELLOŃSKIEGO PORTAL: “We are once again witnessing a divergence between the party leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, and the government's strategy and the 'Morawiecki Plan.' Firstly, it is evident that Kaczyński has concluded that the government has too few successes to guarantee victory in the upcoming elections. Therefore, he is promising new privileges to 'reach millions of Poles' with these 'facts.' Secondly, in an inefficient state, giveaway policies are the only ones that yield immediate results. It's easier to give someone 500 PLN with one law than to build a thousand apartments. That's why Kaczyński is resorting to the tried-and-tested method of redistribution, as promises of electric cars or efficient judiciary have not materialized. Thirdly, and most paradoxically, giveaway policies move us further away from systemic change. Today, the 17 billion PLN we will spend on '500+' for the first child, which will mostly go to well-off families, will not solve any social problems. At the same time, it means fewer funds in the budget for education, healthcare, aid for families with disabled children, or the army. Therefore, Saturday's PiS convention calls into question the modernization dreams inspired by the Morawiecki Plan.”
-- THIS IS WHAT POLITICS LOOKS LIKE NOW; EVERYTHING WILL QUIET DOWN AGAIN AFTER THE ELECTIONS, AND WE CAN START THINKING LONG-TERM AGAIN – MAZUR CONTINUES: “The point of this story is banal, as this is what all of contemporary politics looks like. To win elections, you have to do things and promise privileges that are often not good for the state but yield results in the form of rising poll numbers. Is this what populism looks like? Perhaps. Or maybe this is simply what politics looks like in a democratic system? And to play this game, one must abandon dreams of an efficient and just state. The only thing possible are small, minor changes in short periods between successive election campaigns. These, however, are like tsunamis that destroy rational and long-term strategies. Parties then outbid each other with bad ideas, and voters are overcome by a fever of demands. Everything will quiet down again after the elections, and we can start thinking long-term again. Until the next election campaign.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2019/02/28/mazur-piatka-kaczynskiego-patologia-istota-demokracji-video/
-- THE PRIME MINISTER SPEAKS TO INTERIA ABOUT THE COSTS OF THE "FIVE" PROGRAM – in conversation with Bartosz Bednarz: “In 2019, it will be slightly over 20 billion PLN. This year is unusual because the individual proposals will come into effect gradually, meaning they will apply not for the entire year but only a part of it. Overall, the program is calculated at around 40 billion PLN annually. We are currently discussing the legislative details. Next Tuesday, we will present the details of the new commitments to Poles that we have proposed.”
-- THE STATE SHOULD NOT ONLY BE WELL-MANAGED BUT ALSO A STATE WITH HEART – PMM CONTINUES IN INTERIA: “We have chosen a path of development that aims to include the broadest possible groups of people in the effects of economic growth, not just a select few. The state should not only be efficient and well-managed but should also be a state with heart – supporting a dignified life for people and helping to expand their personal freedoms and realize their dreams from the very beginning. But within the country, not abroad. So, first comes '500 plus,' then, when a young person enters adulthood, they can benefit from zero PIT tax. Then, as a parent, they return to '500 plus,' have an increasingly well-paid job in Poland, which is why we are also lowering the PIT tax, and save for a second pension within Employee Capital Plans. We want to make Poland a truly good place to live, on a daily basis. And regardless of place of residence, social or professional status.” https://fakty.interia.pl/polska/news-premier-dla-interii-nowe-programy-nie-rozsadza-budzetu,nId,2861312
-- MARCIN WOJCIECHOWSKI IN NEWSWEEK ABOUT THE CHAOS ON THE EUROPEAN COALITION LISTS: “Komorowski's candidacy from Warsaw is no longer current. When it turned out that Robert Biedroń would run from the capital, Platforma quietly withdrew him from Warsaw due to the risk that Biedroń would crush the former president in the liberal-left capital, ending in humiliation. Komorowski was moved to the first spot in Wielkopolska, but voices began to emerge there as well, suggesting that the politician's presence in a generally conservative region was a mistake. Komorowski was therefore temporarily moved to the reserve, and Leszek Miller is to receive the first spot in Wielkopolska. Why Miller in Poznań? Because Marek Belka took the first spot in his city, Łódź, so the temporarily homeless Miller was moved to Wielkopolska. Unless Miller runs from Pomerania, as he has run from that district before. But this is only if the rumors are confirmed that Biedroń will opt for the safer option of running not from Warsaw, but from Pomerania, as he is supposedly most popular there as the former mayor of Słupsk, a city located in that district.”
-- IF PSL PUSHES FOR SCHEURING-WIELGUS'S REMOVAL, SHE WILL MOVE TO BIEDROŃ'S LIST – WOJCIECHOWSKI CONTINUES: “If PSL pushes for Scheuring-Wielgus's removal, she will then move to Robert Biedroń's list and receive the top spot in the Kuyavian-Pomeranian Voivodeship. For Wiosna, this would mean a prestigious victory over KE and a guaranteed seat in Brussels. The former MP of Nowoczesna is so popular in her region, and has recently caused a stir with her visit to the Vatican, that she will enter the EP regardless of whether she runs with Wiosna or KE. Therefore, it is the leaders of Platforma who are most interested in her running on their list, as there are only three seats from this voivodeship: one is always taken by Kosma Złotowski from PiS, the second will be taken by Radosław Sikorski, and the third will surely go to Scheuring-Wielgus. If she were to join Biedroń, Janusz Zemke from SLD would move into her spot on the KE list, but he is not as popular as her, meaning KE would simply gift this seat to Biedroń.”
-- WHERE IS THE STRATEGY FOR VICTORY AGAINST PIS IN THIS MESS? WELL, IT'S SOMEWHERE LOST – WOJCIECHOWSKI CONTINUES: “Where is the strategy for victory against PiS in this mess? Well, it's somewhere lost. The participants in the squabbling are now so preoccupied with checkmating each other that the date of the EP elections, May 26th, seems like a distant future, and the October Sejm elections are not even in their consciousness. At the moment, April 16th is on the horizon, which is the final date for submitting candidate lists to the National Electoral Commission. That's still a few weeks away, so nothing is certain. The situation changes from day to day. What was agreed upon on Friday is already outdated on Monday, and there is still over a month and a half until April 16th, so all competitors know that everything can still change, and not just once, during this time. And this absorbs attention.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/ukladajac-mozaike-zapomnieli-o-pis-trwa-wojenka-o-ksztalt-list-koalicji-europejskiej/ecyjnzj -- MONIKA OLEJNIK ON THE KWAŚNIAK AFFAIR – she writes in GW: “Former heads of KNF can feel satisfied, and Ziobro, Święczkowski, and Bierecki should be ashamed. Just as PiS politicians who attack journalists who bravely entered the environment of neo-Nazis celebrating Hitler's birthday should be ashamed. Fortunately, the prosecutor showed fortitude, assessing Piotr Wacowski's conduct, co-author of the TVN report, as follows: 'If he had behaved passively, it might have aroused their suspicion and, consequently, made it impossible to complete the report.'” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24505668,czego-chcesz-prezesie-za-twe-hojne-dary.html
-- ROMAN GRACZYK ON KACZYŃSKI BEING THE FIRST POLITICIAN WITH SUCH AUDACITY – he writes in Interia: “Kaczyński is the first Polish politician so influential who possesses such audacity – as some will say, or so much irresponsibility – as others prefer, including the undersigned. Perhaps it will work out if the analysts are wrong. Or perhaps it won't work out if the analysts are not wrong. If it works out, millions of Poles will receive the fruits of economic success a few years earlier than would result from prudent policy. But if it doesn't work out, Poland's development prospects will be significantly hampered. We are probably not threatened by the Greek scenario, but the Italian scenario would be enough for us to be knocked out of the trend of catching up with the most developed economies in Europe for many years – a trend we have maintained almost uninterruptedly since 1993. Let no one be misled by the date – the SLD came to power then – because it was precisely the 'necessary, painful reforms' implemented by successive 'Solidarity' governments that finally allowed the economy to rebound, and the sweet political fruits of this policy were consumed by the post-communists. That's how politics works.”
-- THERE IS NO LONGER A SILENT AGREEMENT NOT TO PROMISE UNLIMITED SOCIAL BENEFITS – GRACZYK'S CONCLUSION: “The example of 'Kaczyński's new five,' but not only that, as PiS has pursued this type of policy since the beginning of its rule in 2015, shows that in a democracy, you cannot win against populists without practicing populism yourself. If there is no, even tacit, agreement between the main political forces not to promise unlimited social benefits (such an agreement has been in place in Polish politics for over a quarter of a century), then whoever dares to do so first is guaranteed electoral success. 'After us, the flood...'” https://fakty.interia.pl/opinie/graczyk/news-uroki-rozdawnictwa,nId,2859885
-- ALL OF THIS WILL SURELY BE USEFUL – ARTUR CELIŃSKI in Polityka: “'500 plus' for the first child is very attractive. The additional pension will surely be useful and will finally allow many people to feel dignified. Tax cuts for young people will also help them get a better start in life. Everything will surely be useful.”
-- CELIŃSKI ASKS ABOUT THE QUALITY OF LIFE, SCHOOLS, HEALTHCARE: “However, it would also be beneficial for our children to grow up in a country that provides them with good quality: schools, healthcare, jobs, institutions, public spaces, transport, cultural offerings, etc., in the future. But the 40 billion PLN spent this year may mean there won't be enough money left for pay raises for teachers. And soon, a large number of good teachers will decide to leave the profession. The same will happen with doctors, civil servants, police officers, and cultural creators. Today, some of us will certainly become richer by several hundred zlotys a month. But it may turn out that tomorrow we will all become significantly poorer. The greatest challenge will be how to talk about this poverty. 'Shared sacrifices?' – some will propose. 'Let those who received from PiS pay' – others will reply.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1783910,1,polska-polityka-dziala-jakchwilowki.read?src=mt
-- RAFAŁ WOŚ in Tygodnik Powszechny on how trade unions are the only hope for a dignified life in capitalism: “Better-educated employees manage (depending on the economic situation) to play their private games and tricks with employers' monopsony. Sometimes they successfully exploit the fact that the monopsony is not entirely homogenous. Sometimes they succeed. For example, Polish journalists cleverly jumped from project to project during the first two decades after 1989, taking advantage of foreign media investors entering Poland. However, once the market was closed, they found themselves helpless against the employers' monopsony. Un-unionized and with burned bridges of industry solidarity. For the weakest (and most numerous) segment of employees, such a path was essentially never even available. For them, trade unions are essentially the only hope for a dignified life in capitalism. Let's remember this before someone throws a stone at a 'union freeloader' again.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/ziemia-jest-okragla-a-zwiazki-sa-niezbedne-157788
-- MAREK KOZUBAL in Rz criticizes Błaszczak's method of operation: “When the previous PO-PSL government adopted a similar plan for 2013-2022, journalists could participate in a substantive discussion about individual tasks, including with the participation of the Deputy Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army. Today, such an opportunity does not exist. Is this to prevent the media from holding PiS politicians accountable for the implementation of these plans?” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/302289857-Kozubal-Tajemnice-ministra-Blaszczaka.html&cid=44&template=restricted
-- ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA on Klarenbach's surprise at Lichocka's attack: “Is this a program designed to promote candidates of the European Coalition, politicians of the European Coalition? Why did you choose such proportions in this program – Lichocka was indignant. And she accused the host of the program being 'set up.' He quietly explained that he didn't want to and would consider the lady's objections next time. It was probably the first time in his professional career that someone accused him of not paying enough attention to Law and Justice.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/302289860-Posel-Lichocka-strofuje-TVP-za-malo-PiS-na-antenie.html&cid=44&template=restricted
-- IT IS DIFFICULT TO CALL TRZASKOWSKI A CONTINUER OF HGW – JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ in Rz: “The problem will arise when public transport in the capital becomes more expensive, investments start to be delayed, and the city gets stuck in giant traffic jams and drowns in garbage. For now, however – after a hundred days in office – it is difficult to call Rafał Trzaskowski a continuator of Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/302289871-Nizinkiewicz-Otwartosc-prezydenta-stolicy.html&template=restricted
-- TRZASKOWSKI SURPRISED BY HIS FREQUENT CONCESSIONS – GAZETA STOŁECZNA ON PRT'S 100 DAYS: “In the first weeks of his governance in Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski surprised by his frequent concessions. For example, he promised merchants from the Bielany bazaar at Wolumen that he would change the local zoning plan, which allowed for the development of part of the market. When Warsaw PiS councilors launched a massive attack on the idea of charging for unexcused absences from kindergartens, this provision was withdrawn from the resolution. The President also changed his mind about pay raises for teachers. In November, he announced a five percent increase, which for trainee teachers, whose salaries start at PLN 1,750, meant barely a few dozen zlotys. This caused outrage, as during the campaign, he promised a PLN 250 increase. Under pressure from criticism, he returned to the PLN 250 figure. However, such a resolution has not yet been submitted to the Warsaw City Council, which was explained by the need for additional agreements with trade unions.”
-- STOŁECZNA, HOWEVER, REPRIMANDS TRZASKOWSKI FOR REMOVING HIS ELECTION PROGRAM FROM THE WEBSITE: “Rafał Trzaskowski removed his election program from the website after taking office as president. Nothing disappears from the internet, but such hiding of promises from Warsaw residents creates a terrible impression.” http://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,24505185,sto-dni-trzaskowskiego-prezydenta-warszawy-oceniaja-dziennikarze.html
-- BIRTHDAYS: Krzysztof Rybiński, Wojciech Grzedzinski, Zbigniew Deptuła.
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