state of play: 02/26/2019
-- RECORD PEKAO RESULTS - EXCEEDING ANALYSTS' BEST FORECASTS: "Last year was one of the most dynamic in Pekao's history. Pekao opened a record number of new accounts, increased key lending volumes at a double-digit pace, and recorded one of its best financial results. Net profit in the fourth quarter was PLN 749.2 million compared to PLN 648.2 million achieved in the fourth quarter of 2017. The reported result is above analysts' highest forecasts. The bank's retail banking income saw its fastest growth in 10 years." http://media.pekao.com.pl/pr/423876/bank-pekao-sa-zysk-netto-znaczaco-powyzej-prognoz-przy-dwucyfrowej-ren
-- IT WAS KACZYŃSKI WHO ANNOUNCED THE EXPANSION OF 500+ - Magdalena Rubaj in Fakt: "Just 10 days before PiS's Saturday convention, it was decided that party leader Jarosław Kaczyński (70) would announce the expansion of the 500+ program to include the first child – Fakt has learned. According to our information, the party leader communicated this decision to Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (51) during a one-on-one meeting while the whole of Poland was focused on the tapes recorded by Gerald Birgfellner (57), revealed by 'Gazeta Wyborcza,' and the visit of the party leader to Zbigniew Ziobro (49) revealed by Fakt." https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/jak-w-pis-pracowano-nad-500-na-kazde-dziecko/qysxehx -- ADRIAN ZANDBERG TO GW: HAVE YOU LOST YOUR MINDS? "Seriously, Gazeta Wyborcza? You're calling raises for nurses and teachers 'giving away our money'? Have you lost your minds? Significant, much higher raises in the public sector are necessary. Without them, public services will simply collapse. There are already not enough nurses, and more and more teachers are leaving the profession. If the government is to be criticized for anything, it's for consistently squeezing the public sector, following in the footsteps of its predecessors. Criticizing them for these meager raises is simply foolish and irresponsible. Will the liberals continue to babble about alleged 'handouts' when there are no workers left and hospitals have to be closed?" https://www.facebook.com/549694025184188/posts/1246196098867307?sfns=mo
-- PKS SUSPENDS DOZENS MORE ROUTES IN PODKARPACIE - local GW: "In the last two years, Rzeszów PKS has cancelled a total of several hundred routes. From March 1st, more routes will disappear, including on the Rzeszów-Dynów route. The reasons? A decrease in passenger numbers, rising fuel prices. PiS announces it will subsidize local transport for local governments. 'A bit too late, at a time when transport companies are collapsing in Podkarpacie,' believes Dominik Bąk, president of the Podkarpackie Association of Transport Enthusiasts." http://rzeszow.wyborcza.pl/rzeszow/7,34962,24492182,piatka-kaczynskiego-a-w-niej-wiecej-polaczen-gminnych-i-powiatowych.html
-- BARTŁOMIEJ RADZIEJEWSKI FROM NOWA KONFEDERACJA ON WASTING COMMON MONEY EQUIVALENT TO THE MON BUDGET - writes on FB: "This 'program' is overwhelmingly a 'waste' of common money, roughly equivalent to the Ministry of National Defence budget, for electoral purposes, blocking truly developmental and future-oriented expenditures of a more significant scale – for years. The mainstream opposition is simultaneously completely unbelievable in its criticism of this program, as its most important points were taken from PO. This is symbolic of Polish politics: wasting national resources for short-term electoral gain instead of for the good of Poles. Mediocrity." https://www.facebook.com/bradziejewski/posts/2283716774974877
-- PIOTR ZAREMBA SKEPTICAL OF PIS PROPOSALS: WASTING VARIOUS OPPORTUNITIES - writes on FB: "Since I'm not particularly aligned with the current opposition, I treat the possibility of them being effectively outbid in elections without emotion. However, regarding the social consequences, I have the exact same impression. We are not threatened by ruin, but we are threatened by the wasting of various opportunities. I don't question the use of state power to achieve socio-economic goals, but that doesn't mean I can't question its use in this way. And there is a moral dimension. Let's be aware that patients who won't be able to see a doctor because healthcare reform will be postponed for years will pay for subsidizing wealthy families without any demographic effect. Unfortunately." https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100011509202636
-- PIS WANTS TO SEND A CLEAR SIGNAL THAT THE FRUITS OF GROWTH ARE GOING INTO CITIZENS' POCKETS - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: "Law and Justice clearly wants to send a clear signal to society: the fruits of economic growth are and will continue to go into citizens' pockets, perhaps primarily. Platforma Obywatelska lacked this understanding in 2015 (as Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz accurately, though crudely, said on the tapes) – since PiS boasts so much about VAT collection, the good condition of the budget, rising ratings from rating agencies, etc., the natural consequence of this situation is the question of how these graphs and numbers translate into everyday life. In this logic, both 500+ for every child and a one-time financial boost for retirees are absolutely obvious and appropriate."
-- WILL VOTERS NOT THANK US FOR THE EXPANSION OF 500+ BUT ASK WHAT'S NEXT? - FIJOŁEK CONTINUES: "However, a question mark arises when asked about the timing of these changes. PiS is seemingly counting on voters showing gratitude at the ballot box. This may be the case, but not necessarily – the first version of the 500+ program was quickly accepted as an immutable part of our reality. Who knows if it won't be the same this time – voters will politely thank us for expanding 500+, but they will ask: what's next? And it's not even about further cash transfers, but about the feeling that PiS wants to govern, that it has a vision for Poland." https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/435445-po-konwencji-pis-szarpniecie-cuglami-przed-ostatnia-prosta
-- GENERALS MOSTLY FIGHT DECIDED WARS - DR JAROSŁAW FLIS in conversation with Agata Kondzińska in GW: "What's left for them is economics, because generals prefer to fight previous wars, convinced that if something worked in the past, it will be effective next time. Although after the local government elections, unofficial information based on party research circulated in the media suggesting that welfare programs no longer work, that emotions need to be calmed down, and fronts in disputes about the rule of law closed. However, Law and Justice hasn't been very successful at that after three years of stepping on everyone's toes. That's why they chose this strategy: we're playing the melody that has worked best for us so far. But not because we think it's the most effective, but simply because other options are not promising. And they are counting on the European Coalition being even more divided economically than culturally, and also being plagued by internal tensions after Biedroń's attack. We just have to wait to see what else Biedroń will present, because so far his idea was to launch a party, while the real debate is about to begin, and much depends on whether it will be a discussion about the topics the opposition wants, or those imposed by the government."
-- BIEDROŃ'S WIOSNA MAY SHARE THE FATE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY FROM 2007 - FLIS IN GW - BIEDROŃ HAS SOME CARDS BUT STILL LACKS A LOT: "Biedroń's Wiosna may share the fate of the Democratic Party from 2007 – its voters then transferred their support to PO as the main opponent of Kaczyński. Schetyna is playing on this. He waves at Biedroń not for him to join, but for some of his supporters to change their minds. A political party is like solitaire; many cards must fall into place for it to work and not fall apart. Biedroń has some of these cards, but he still lacks a lot." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24493117,flis-stratega-pis-gramy-ulubiona-melodie-czyli-socjal-pozostale.html
-- PAWEŁ ROCHOWICZ IN RZ ON HOW UNCLEAR SOMETHING LIKE THE PIT RELIEF IS AND HOW IT CAN BE MISUSED: "The PIT exemption for employees under 26 years of age will likely not be unconditional either. It is not difficult to imagine a situation where an entrepreneur hires his children, paying them handsomely, and in reality, transferring profits to his family tax 'paradise.' Those who don't have children of that age might hire young people from outside the family for high salaries. At the same time, they might charge for, for example, 3/4 of that salary for professional training services. Well, because the young person has a lot to learn, right? There's no need to elaborate on optimization scenarios. Let's wait for specific regulations, not declarations from party conventions."
-- PIOTR SKWIROWSKI ON THE DIFFICULT SITUATION OF THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE - writes in RZ: "And everything indicates that we have passed the peak of the economic cycle and will now start to slow down. How much, is unknown. However, even a slight economic slowdown, to a natural level of 3.5%, will mean that the stream of money flowing into the budget from taxes will be less abundant. The deficit in state finances will grow. It is significant that at the PiS's Saturday program convention, where proposals for increasing spending rained down like from a horn of plenty, there was no speech by the head of the finance ministry. She likely had a grim expression." https://www.rp.pl/Blogi/302259907-Nie-chcialbym-byc-ministrem-finansow.html&template=restricted
-- THE HIGH PRICE OF ELECTORAL CANDIES - DGP (Chądzyński, Godusławski, Osiecki): "The Ministry headed by Teresa Czerwińska fears that Brussels will censor us. Economists point out that there is no threat of an excessive deficit procedure this year, as the risk of exceeding the EU deficit limit of 3% of GDP is small. This procedure would be particularly painful for the government because it does not allow for increased spending, but requires it to be reduced or for additional revenues to be sought. It could be worse in subsequent years, because if the 13th pension were to become a permanent part of budget expenditures, it would, along with the 500+ program for the first child, represent a significant expenditure item. Especially during a downturn: lower growth rates mean lower tax revenues, which, with a larger number of fixed expenditures, leads to a deepening deficit. We are more threatened by another, less severe EU procedure – excessive deviation. It is imposed on countries that do not limit the so-called structural deficit (i.e., excluding the impact of the economic cycle)."
-- DGP QUOTES IZABELA LESZCZYNA ON MONEY HIDDEN IN RESERVES: "Moreover, even assuming that ZUS will cover the payments for retirees, there are still about PLN 9 billion left for the expanded 500+. Can these gifts be financed from savings and transfers from reserves? Izabela Leszczyna from PO would not be surprised. In her opinion, the government was preparing for such a scenario. – During the budget work, I pointed out large sums allocated to reserves. At the same time, the limits on their size were lifted. Money saved on investments that the government fails to implement will likely be used to cover new expenses. They will be allocated to buying Poles' votes – emphasizes Leszczyna." https://gospodarka.dziennik.pl/news/artykuly/592190,pis-obietnice-wydatki-koszt-cena.html
-- KATARZYNA KOLENDA-ZALESKA IN GW ON WHAT PIS WILL DO IN CASE OF ELECTION DEFEAT: "And here we come to the core of the matter. Let's assume PiS loses these elections. What then? More gifts from the budget? This is likely, although it will be difficult for PiS to outbid its own promises. Voters will need to be provided with other attractions. The method is actually known. Subsequent articles about the troubles of developer Jarosław Kaczyński led to further arrests. So far, at the level of former directors of state-owned companies. This no longer makes an impression, it's no longer attractive. It will be necessary to reach higher. Perhaps even the highest. This could be a very difficult and terrible campaign, unlike anything Polish democracy has ever seen." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24492530,gdy-chleb-nie-wystarczy-pis-zapewni-igrzyska.html
-- ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ IN GAZETA.PL ON THE EUROPEAN COALITION'S PROGRAM: "Civic Platform caused us the most problems. Grzegorz Schetyna's formation not only lacks an up-to-date program on its website (apparently work is underway on an offer to be presented during the parliamentary campaign), but also hesitated to take a stance on the issues we asked about. Why? Because, as we heard, PO is currently focused on developing a program for the entire European Coalition, and emphasizing its own views could hinder this and be perceived as the largest party in the alliance imposing its opinion." http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24491862,czy-oni-w-ogole-maja-ze-soba-cos-wspolnego-sprawdzilismy-programy.html
-- MAREK MAGIEROWSKI IN A MOVING ARTICLE IN JERUSALEM POST: "The three women had at least two traits in common – they were not particularly keen on telling their wartime stories. Too much of a trauma, probably. And on the infrequent occasions they did recall the horrors of the German occupation, they never used the word 'Nazis.' I assume they were not even familiar with the term. Now, if some people suggest that those brave women were partially 'responsible' or 'complicit,' or 'guilty' for what happened during the Holocaust in occupied Poland; that the Poles should eventually atone for their sins, 'as Germans or Austrians did a long time ago'; that we should be eternally contrite for 'the inherent hatred we bear'; I can only say to them: You are talking to the dead. And the dead deserve respect. When I heard the infamous quotation about 'Polish milk,' I was not furious, not even upset. I was sad. I had the bitter feeling that all my efforts aimed at reconciliation and better understanding between our nations were flushed down the drain in three seconds. Since I arrived in Israel seven months ago, I’ve spoken and written many a time about our common history, without concealing any obscure chapters or any crimes committed by my fellow countrymen against Jews. And I never expected forgiveness. I expected a frank, but fair debate. This debate has yet to begin." https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/My-grandmothers-the-war-survivors-581751
-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON STATEMENTS BY, AMONG OTHERS, KUKIZ - IN RZ - THE BOUNDARIES OF ANTISEMITISM: "We are outraged by the words of Israel Katz that Poles absorbed antisemitism with mother's milk, because he accuses everyone of antisemitism solely on the basis of origin. It was rightly pointed out that this is a racist statement. And antisemitism can manifest itself in harmful generalizations saying that Jews hate Poles or that they want to extort money from them. Not some circles, not some individuals – but Jews." https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/302259896-Szuldrzynski-Granice-antysemityzmu.html
-- WILL AUSTRIA ENTER THE GAME? - Iwona Szpala in GW: "A request for diplomatic protection and a motion to allow an Austrian embassy observer to the hearings of Gerald Birgfellner – these are the documents submitted yesterday by the lawyers of the Austrian businessman." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24493050,tasmy-kaczynskiego-austriacki-biznesmen-chce-przesluchan-z.html
-- JAN DWORAK ON REBUILDING THE STATE AFTER PIS - WRITES ABOUT TVP: "After a change of government, public media, which have been destroyed, will need to be rebuilt. However, the realities of the digital age do not allow for a simple return to what was."
-- DWORAK ON MERGING TELEVISION AND RADIO AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL: "The current media structure – the division into radio and television – is anachronistic. They should be simultaneously integrated and deconcentrated: merging regional Polskie Radio stations with regional branches of Telewizja Polska, granting the new companies broad autonomy. For economic reasons, this was not possible three decades ago – television programming was too expensive; today, digitalization allows regional media to produce programs for television, radio, and the web." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24492600,jak-odbudowac-polske-po-rzadach-pis-media-publiczne.html
-- HOFMAN ON PSL'S PROBLEM, NEUMANN ON THE JOINT CONVENTION AND THE KE PROGRAM: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/02/26/
-- BIRTHDAYS: Roman Malinowski, Andrzej Celiński, Ryszard Kalisz, Zbyszek Zaborowski, Beata Bublewicz, Michał Marcinkiewicz, Piotr Skwirowski.
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