-- JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI PRESENTS NEW PROGRAM, INCLUDING PLN 500 FOR THE FIRST CHILD AND ZERO PIT TAX FOR ALL UNDER 26 YEARS OLD - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/02/23/

-- MOST PROBABLE HYPOTHESIS ON BRUDZIŃSKI'S EUROPEAN PATH - ANALYSIS BY 300POLITYKA - PIS TO EMERGE FROM LETHARGY IN BRUSSELS: https://300polityka.pl/news/2019/02/22/najbardziej-prawdopodobna-hipoteza-na-temat-europejskiej-drogi-brudzinskiego/

-- PIS COUNTED ON A SPLIT, BUT THE COALITION IS BECOMING A REALITY - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA IN GW: “PiS counted on a war between Tusk and Schetyna, and on animosity between Schetyna and Kosiniak-Kamysz. None of that happened. The broad European Coalition is becoming a reality. The Polish People's Party (PSL) – a key piece of the puzzle – is now joining it.”

-- WIELOWIEYSKA ON THE IDEA OF PHOTOS WITH TUSK LIKE WITH WAŁĘSA IN 1989: “One of my interviewees even dreamed of photos similar to the Solidarity candidates' photographs with Lech Wałęsa in 1989, but this time with Donald Tusk. The plan is rather unrealistic due to Tusk's position as President of the European Council.”

-- TUSK NEEDS HIS OWN CAMP TO AVOID BEING SCHETYNA'S HOSTAGE: “One thing is certain: if the President of the European Council decides to return to Polish politics and considers running for president (though this remains a big question mark), he would want to avoid a situation where he is Schetyna's hostage in logistical and financial matters. Hence, he needs his own camp to patronize, of which PO would only be a part. Besides, he would never win the presidential elections with the support of Platforma alone.”

-- THERE'S TUG-OF-WAR BUT NO SPLIT IS VISIBLE - WIELOWIEYSKA'S CONCLUSION: “But this tug-of-war, or a certain degree of distrust, does not change the fundamental fact: in the camp where Tusk, Schetyna, Kosiniak-Kamysz, and Czarzasty are, no split or quarrel is visible on the horizon, and the goal and ideas are clearly defined.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24483945,plan-zjednoczonej-opozycji-tak-chca-pokonac-pis-w-wyborach.html

-- NO GREAT INSIGHT IS NEEDED TO REALIZE THE EUROPEAN COALITION WILL FALL APART AFTER THE ELECTIONS - PROFESSOR HENRYK DOMAŃSKI TELLS ŁUKASZ ROGOJSKI IN GAZETA.PL: “Therefore, one doesn't need great knowledge or insight to realize that this coalition will fall apart immediately after the elections. Everyone who is interested in politics knows this, and I think even among those less informed, this feeling is quite strong. Winning elections as a coalition is one thing, but acting effectively after such a victory is another. Meanwhile, in the case of the European Coalition, there is only one promise: to defeat PiS. The chances that after a potential victory, all members of this alliance will agree on a program and the shape of the government are minimal.”

-- ONE CANNOT BE REVOLUTIONARY FOR TOO LONG, AS IT LEADS TO THE REVOLUTIONARIES' DOWNFALL - DOMAŃSKI CONTINUES: “The time for revolution has ended – this is a very good description. The so-called Thermidorian Reaction – one cannot be revolutionary for too long, as it leads to the revolutionaries' downfall. At some point, revolutionary force must stop and give people a sense of security, because society expects just that. This is a very valuable lesson for PiS, which it must learn from its 2005-07 government, when it did not understand this in time. Back then, it paid the highest price for not listening to society – it lost power.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24483668,czas-rewolucji-sie-skonczyl-pis-musi-odrobic-lekcje-dobra.html

-- THESE NEW OPPOSITION FORMULAS ARE A MASQUERADE - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “For the umpteenth time, Poles are realizing that all these new opposition formulas, successive embroidered banners, new leaders, are just a masquerade. Just as false are the assurances of a new version (free from distortions) of the liberal or leftist offer. When it comes to making decisions, it always turns out that this whole merry band unhesitatingly enters the cauldron labeled 'Third Republic of Poland'. And they start repeating the mantra about the evil Kaczyński, who must be stopped. Because the most important, the only important thing, is 'to be as it was before.'”

-- BIEDROŃ WILL CHOOSE SCHETYNA ANYWAY - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Let's note, even people associated with Robert Biedroń, who is just entering the big political arena, indicate that when it comes to decisions about power, they will choose Schetyna.”

-- EITHER STATE REPAIR DESPITE OBVIOUS MISTAKES, OR 'AS IT WAS' - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: "And as we hear, even in the PSL, which likes to emphasize its alleged conservatism so much, the appetite for a joint start with this extremely leftist company is growing. Anything to oppose PiS. Unfortunately, in the real world, Poles have only one choice. Either United Right and state repair (despite obvious mistakes), or 'as it was before.' https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/435100-po-tej-deczyzji-nowoczesnej-polacy-maja-tylko-jeden-wybor

-- THE POLITICAL DISPUTE IS INCREASINGLY ANACHRONISTIC - PIOTR TRUDNOWSKI IN RZ: “The constant dispute over the effects of transformation is becoming not only increasingly anachronistic but also detached from reality. A debate about what kind of democracy, economy, Poland, and Europe our children will live in is more important. Such a dispute will bring us closer to making key decisions about the future of our political community. The conviction of the anachronism of the Polish political dispute in AD 2019 seems increasingly widespread. The glaring reality also makes its feigned nature increasingly visible. Perhaps some politicians and commentators will be able to argue about the Round Table and the balance of Jan Olszewski's government for a few more years, but the end of this spectacle is near. The past few weeks have shown that these issues, beloved by the organizers of our collective imagination and repeated ad nauseam, no longer captivate the crowds. A conflict that may be more current and real, but equally difficult to resolve, lurks around the corner. However, let's try to organize our political life around real, solvable challenges that are adequate to the problems we will soon have to face.”

-- THE KURSCY BROTHERS WILL DO A LOT TO MAKE US CHOOSE AGAIN AT THE BALLOT BOX WHETHER WE ARE MORE OUTRAGED BY THE DISMISSAL OF THE OLSZEWSKI GOVERNMENT OR THE APPROPRIATION OF THE SREBRNA COMPANY - TRUDNOWSKI CONTINUES: “The Kurscy brothers will do a lot to make us choose again at the ballot box whether we are more outraged by the dismissal of Jan Olszewski's government or by the political environment of Jarosław Kaczyński appropriating the Srebrna company. There may be slightly more people tired of their dispute than before, but they will most likely cast their vote for taxing church collections. There is no indication that the political law of gravity will change quickly. When someone finds a way to do this, it may simply be too late. Well, drowning in an underground river is also a form of innovation.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/302219922-Okragly-Stol-bracia-Kurscy-rzad-OlszewskiegoCzas-na-nowe-spory.html&cid=44&template=restricted

-- SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE POTENTIAL OF THE YOUNG - DR. JAROSŁAW FLIS IN CONVERSATION WITH MICHAŁ PŁOCIŃSKI IN RZ: “Sometimes it helps, and sometimes it means hitting a wall. They do some things better, that's true. But you have to realize they are at risk of a disease that German psychiatrist Manfred Spitzer called 'digital dementia.' In a nutshell, they can do ten stupid things at once, but they can't do one smart thing. At the same time, they believe that so-called digital skills give them a total advantage over everyone else. This immediately reminds me of a young man who, at a Modern party convention three years ago, mocked older politicians for not even knowing how to use a dating site... I am not deeply convinced that fluency in using a dating site is a particular competence for a politician.”

-- NEW GENERATION OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS - FLIS CONTINUES: “The Solidarity generation is leaving, and the local government generation is starting to enter the stage. Those who became interested in politics in the early 80s, or a bit later, around 1989, are now being replaced by young people who enter politics from the bottom up – they were first councilors in their commune, then councilors in their district, and gradually climbed the ladder. For them, democracy is already something absolutely obvious.” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/302219923-Jaroslaw-Flis-Odchodzi-pokolenie-Solidarnosci.html&cid=44&template=restricted

-- PROGRESSIVE AGENDA WITH A SOCIAL SAUCE - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ ON WARSAW: “Just a few months after the local elections, one can observe that an ideological revolution is being forged in the capital of Poland, jointly by people from PO, Nowoczesna, and 'Krytyka Polityczna'. The Platforma Obywatelska, which governs Warsaw today and was founded exactly 18 years ago as a liberal-conservative party appealing to Christian values, is testing a strongly progressive agenda in the capital, liberally seasoned with social sauce.”

-- IS THIS A TEST OF THE PROGRAM PLATFORMA WANTS TO IMPLEMENT AFTER THE ELECTIONS? - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “Simultaneously, new kindergartens and nurseries are being built (the mayor promised they would be free), bicycle paths, Vistula boulevards, and the municipal budget is opening up funds for support for seniors and financing of in vitro fertilization – all intended to make the lives of citizens, including those less wealthy, increasingly pleasant. And again – it's hard to object to most of these matters individually, but when we put them together, it's hard not to notice an experiment involving the marriage of liberal postulates with leftist ones, of moral progressivism with social actions. Is this a test of the program that Platforma would like to apply throughout Poland after winning the parliamentary elections?” https://www.rp.pl/Plus-Minus/302219921-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Stoleczny-test-PO-i-Krytyki-Politycznej.html&template=restricted

-- KRZYSZTOF PACEWICZ IN OKO ON PIS'S LOSSES: “In the last few months, PiS has lost as much as 6-9 percentage points. Through an analysis of voter flows in the February OKO.press poll, we can say who has benefited from this. We can also estimate whether Biedroń is indeed attracting new voters to politics, or rather poaching voters from the opposition. And whether the anti-PiS opposition as a whole is gaining or losing from this.”

-- PACEWICZ ANALYZES THE SOURCE OF BIEDROŃ'S ELECTORATE BUT NOTES THAT THEY WERE WEAKLY ROOTED VOTERS, HENCE THE DOUBT WHETHER THEY WOULD ULTIMATELY VOTE FOR THE EUROPEAN COALITION: “4 percentage points – these are former Civic Platform voters, 2 pp – Nowoczesna voters (declining in polls), 2 pp – leftists (one each from SLD and Razem), 1 pp – PiS voters, and 3 pp – people who did not vote for any party before. From the perspective of the democratic anti-PiS opposition, Wiosna (Spring) 'takes away' 7 pp from the European Coalition (4 PO + 2 .N + 1 SLD), but these were people less rooted in the four KE parties, which meant uncertainty about whether they would vote for them.”

-- THANKS TO WIOSNA, THE OPPOSITION GAINS A MAJORITY - PACEWICZ CONTINUES: “These votes are flowing from one (large) opposition bloc to another (smaller) one. However, the opposition as a whole gains – in relation to PiS – an additional 6 pp: 3 pp from people who didn't know who to vote for or wouldn't vote at all, 1 pp from Razem voters (these votes have no chance of becoming mandates at the moment), and also 1 pp from PiS voters. Attention! This 'gain' counts double, because the difference between the democratic opposition and PiS improves by 2 pp. If the results from the OKO.press poll were to occur in the parliamentary elections, and PO, .N, SLD, and PSL ran together as the European Coalition, then the pro-democratic forces (KE + Wiosna) would together achieve a minimal majority in parliament. According to OKO.press, the distribution of seats in the Sejm would look like this: PiS – 184; KE – 180; Wiosna – 52; Kukiz’15 – 27; KORWIN + RN – 17. KE and Wiosna could therefore form a majority coalition of 232 seats with a considerable advantage – 48 seats – over PiS.” https://oko.press/dlaczego-pis-owi-nie-spada-otoz-spada-i-to-mocno-a-komu-zabiera-biedron-sondaz-oko-press/

-- JACEK GĄDEK ON BIEDROŃ'S CHARISMA, WHICH IS UNDERMINED BY SELF-LOVE - IN GAZETA.PL: “Robert Biedroń travels around Poland with conventions. In Kielce, he preached a spring of love. – We are love – he says to the crowd. He is one of the most charismatic politicians today. But his enemy is self-love.”

-- GĄDEK DESCRIBES THE BEHIND-THE-SCENES OF WIOSNA'S REGIONAL CONVENTIONS: “Wiosna's meetings are ticketed – you have to register to enter. In Kielce: 700 people. The hall was full. Outside the entrance, a shop selling Wiosna t-shirts and Robert Biedroń's books. The movement needs funds to start, and this is a natural way to raise them. And there's a table to sign petitions for a bill on a secular state. Before the convention started. – They even show who should sit where in the audience – says one participant. Gaps in the first rows are being filled. – Two more people here. Please sit in this row – the staff directs. In the row next to which the leader of Wiosna is to pass, a full spectrum of voters has been ensured: from seniors to young men. Such a requirement of professionalism.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24482519,wiosna-milosci-w-kielcach.html

-- PAWEŁ WROŃSKI VOLUNTEERS TO INSPECT CZECH BEER IN RETALIATION FOR POLISH BEEF: “Minister of Agriculture Krzysztof Ardanowski, in connection with your initiative to respond to increased controls of Polish meat in the Czech Republic with controls of Czech beer, I hereby volunteer as a reserve force ready to support you and the fatherland in this endeavor. Each of us possesses an inspection organ. We will also arrange for snacks ourselves, from a reliable source. We await your response. And a similar conflict with France or Italy. Over and out!” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24482354,piwo-za-wolowine-czyli-odwet-na-czechach-jestesmy-gotowi-pomoc.html

-- ANDRZEJ WIELOWIEYSKI REMEMBERS THE LATE BISHOP ORSZULIK: “Between 1989-92, he was an auxiliary bishop in Siedlce, and between 1992-2002 – an ordinary bishop in Łowicz. I am unable to assess how this stubborn Silesian managed in Podlasie and in the new Łowicz diocese. I attended a few meetings with him, which took place in a friendly and cordial atmosphere. He adopted the motto for his episcopate: Christo in allis servire (to serve Christ in people). He served for a long time: he was already 90 years old.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24484111,biskup-czasu-transformacji.html

-- WE DON'T PAY YOU FOR SLEEPING - Fakt: “They meet in the Sejm less and less often – recently only once a month! One might expect our MPs, when they do show up for work, to work diligently. Nothing of the sort! During votes, many decided that the voters were already asleep, so they could be too.” https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/nie-za-spanie-wam-placimy/7ml8800

-- SATURDAY BIRTHDAYS: Paweł Graś, Anna Bogucka-Skowrońska, Radosław Sikorski, Magdalena Ogórek, SUNDAY Janusz Zemke turns 70.