state of play: 02/21/2019

THE STATE OF PLAY: Fijołek on the PSL's Risk: Voters Won't Accept Gestures Towards LGBT and War with the Church; Burzyńska on Tusk's Plan to Gambit Schetyna with the Senate

Łukasz Mężyk

SENATOR OF THE NON-PARTISAN PARLIAMENTARY CLUB GABRIELA CWOJDZIŃSKA TURNS 91 TODAY. -- RPO CONFIRMS SPUREK HAS RESIGNED - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/02/21/ -- AGNIESZKA BURZYŃSKA WRITES IN FAKT ABOUT TUSK'S SENATE PLAN: “Therefore, a great movement is needed, modeled on the upheaval of 1989, in which prominent local government officials, politicians, and ordinary people will participate. Such an initiative would also allow for the recapture of the Senate from PiS. And this is the minimum plan agreed upon during talks held on the occasion of Paweł Adamowicz's funeral. The assumption is simple: as Fakt has learned, in each constituency, the June 4th Movement will field one candidate against a candidate from PiS and possibly other formations. In total, there will be 100 names. There are enough seats to accommodate well-known figures, including those who won't make it to the European Parliament in May. Tusk's associates, with whom we spoke, do not hide that there is another goal: to prevent PO leader Grzegorz Schetyna from taking control of the entire opposition.” https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/donald-tusk-i-ruch-4-czerwca/d9ck7rj -- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI WRITES IN RZ ABOUT HOW TUSK'S WORDS IN UKRAINE ARE AN INDICTMENT AGAINST GERMANY: “Tusk's words are not just a nice gesture towards Ukraine. They are also an indictment against Germany, which is pushing ahead with its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project despite controversies. Recently, an influential representative of German politics convinced me that his country's economy cannot become a hostage of a state as nearly collapsed and riddled with corruption as Ukraine is. Because that is at stake in this project – NS2 will finally allow the Russians to shut down the gas pipelines that run through Ukraine. This could deepen the chaos in that country. It's good that someone finally said out loud that Europe will not be safe if Ukraine is not safe.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/302209908-Szuldrzynski-Stawka-Nord-Stream-2-jest-Ukraina.html -- MARCIN FIJOŁEK WRITES THAT KACZYŃSKI WANTS TO INCITE RIVALRY ON PIS LISTS: “Returning to Professor Paruch's initial thesis about refreshing the electoral lists – this is indeed a reset that has quite obvious, yet pragmatic, underlying reasons. It's about internal rivalry on the PiS lists, which can motivate individual candidates (as in Mazovia, Pomerania, or Lublin Voivodeship) to work harder to defeat their opponents on the list and secure a mandate. Zbigniew Kuźmiuk will do his best to renew his MEP mandate (although he is running from 3rd position) and overtake Adam Bielan or Maria Koc. Elżbieta Kruk will compete with Beata Mazurek for a ‘taking’ spot from Lublin, and Anna Fotyga will feel Jarosław Sellin breathing down her neck. Such cases can be multiplied, which, from the perspective of the entire party and its results, can only be beneficial.” -- FIJOŁEK WRITES THAT GOVERNMENT REORGANIZATION IS OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE AT THE END OF THE TERM: “The personal reshuffling within the government after the European elections (or just before) will remain an open question. For the few months remaining until the end of this term, new ministers will have to be appointed in the Ministry of Interior and Administration and the Ministry of National Education, a couple of deputy minister positions will need to be filled, as well as positions in the parliamentary leadership. But let's not have any illusions – the final months of the government's work are already a kind of drift, dictated almost exclusively by the escalating campaign. There will be a few more Sejm sessions, and it will be a government closing certain matters, at most implementing laws that will be significant in electoral terms. We might even learn about these latter ones this coming Saturday at the PiS convention.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/434773-odswiezenie-i-reset-list-wyborczych-co-nam-mowi-manewr-pjk -- ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ WRITES IN GAZETA.PL THAT THE VOTERS OF PIS HAVE FOUND ELECTORAL HEROES ON THE LISTS: “However, it would be a mistake to conclude that President Kaczyński is sending 'leftovers' from the domestic scene to the EU front. Looking at the PiS lists for the European Parliament and assessing their value, one must remember that most of the names at the top positions are true heroes for the ruling party's loyal electorate. One doesn't have to look far for examples: Szydło, Jaki, Brudziński, Waszczykowski. These are all people whom PiS voters would go through fire for.” -- ROGOJSZ ON LISTS MOBILIZING THE PIS ELECTORATE: “In this way, PiS will kill not two, but three birds with one stone. Firstly, it will implement its strategic personnel moves. Secondly, it will satisfy and mobilize the electorate, thereby increasing its chances in the European elections. Thirdly, it will counter the European Coalition, which plans to field distinguished and popular politicians (including former prime ministers and former foreign ministers) at the top spots, showing that the pool of candidates in Nowogrodzka is not as short as is commonly believed.” -- ROGOJSZ ON NEUTRALIZING THE OPPOSITION'S FREQUENCY ADVANTAGE: “The fielding of well-known names is therefore an attempt by PiS to mobilize the largest possible percentage of its own voters. The goal is obvious: to neutralize the opposition's advantage, resulting from the above-average turnout among their supporters. Those in Nowogrodzka are well aware that the May vote is not about placing a couple of dozen party nominees in well-paid positions. The key is to win and continue the winning streak. To show the undecided that PiS is still leading the pack and that this camp is worth identifying with.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24476088,opozycja-wysmiewa-listy-pis-u-do-europarlamentu-ale-to-kaczynski.html#BoxWOpImg1 -- MARCIN FIJOŁEK WRITES THAT FOR THE OLD GUARD OF PSL, RUNNING ON PO LISTS IS PLAYING WITH FIRE: “All of this is true to some extent. But the old guard in PSL (or at least a large part of it) has a different, in my opinion, sound intuition. People like Marek Sawicki or Waldemar Pawlak know, feel, and warn their colleagues with a cloverleaf on their lapels that entering the same boat (not just a coalition, but also an electoral bloc) is a political step towards an abyss, playing with fire, and perhaps even suicide.” -- FIJOŁEK ON HOW PSL VOTERS WON'T ACCEPT GESTURES TOWARDS LGBT AND WAR WITH THE CHURCH: “The villagers, especially the rank-and-file, also know that entering into a coalition with PO will block their ability to effectively fight for a mandate (MEP, and later MP), as there will be many more mouths to feed. The ‘taking’ spots on the electoral lists will have to be divided among all the smaller and larger groupings, and consequently, there will be many disappointed, frustrated, simply angry people. It's also worth stating frankly – PSL's entry into an anti-PiS coalition will also cause some of its electorate to defect to PiS: conservative-minded villagers will not accept such games and moves as gestures towards LGBT communities, war with the Church, or a total political brawl. These are simply facts.” -- FIJOŁEK ON KOSINIAK'S DILEMMA: “Kosiniak-Kamysz himself is not sending unambiguous signals because he knows he doesn't have a large enough and effective army of activists to push through his vision against other coteries and factions. PSL faces a very important decision – but if they choose the shortcut, they could very quickly share the fate of Nowoczesna; a small party, currently prominent in the media, but realistically meaning nothing more than an appetizer on Grzegorz Schetyna's menu. There will be extremely little time to change this decision after the EP elections. Returning to one's own, even if flawed, identity, to one's own banner, is several times more difficult than abandoning those qualities.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/434715-jesli-psl-pojdzie-razem-z-po-na-dlugie-lata-wypadnie-na-aut -- TUSK IS DRAWING UP A CROSS-POLITICAL MOBILIZATION - AGATA SZCZĘŚNIAK IN OKO: “Speaking of dispersed energy, Tusk paints a picture of 'pre-political' mobilization. Characteristic of such transitional periods as 1989, when there were no formed party structures yet. Today, however – even if we are dealing with another moment of transition and defining the political system for the next decades – we are not experiencing a political vacuum. The political scene is filled not only with parties that Tusk tries to distance himself from, but also with various civic movements (urban, women's, parental, anti-clerical, tenant, and many others) and local governments.” -- SZCZĘŚNIAK ON TUSK AND SONGS FROM BIEDROŃ'S REPERTOIRE: “Tusk is trying to return not only to the events of 30 years ago (Civic Committee) but also to those from less than 20 years ago. Platforma Obywatelska, which he founded as a 44-year-old, also appealed to the energy of citizens who did not find themselves in the then party arrangement (between SLD and AWS) and was intended to be a 'platform' precisely. Will Tusk manage to step into the same river twice? What is also interesting is that 'change' and engaging those bored with current parties – these are currently songs from Robert Biedroń's repertoire.” https://oko.press/zjednoczyciel-donald-tusk-w-koncu-wkracza-do-politycznej-akcji/ -- BIRTHDAYS: Gabriela Cwojdzińska, Czesław Fiedorowicz.

Łukasz Mężyk