state of play: 02/20/2019
-- KUKIZ ON THE FACT THAT NO ONE CAN GOVERN WITHOUT HIM - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/02/20
-- WE RISK AN EDUCATION SYSTEM PARALYSIS UNPRECEDENTED SINCE 1989 - Justyna Suchecka and Małgorzata Zubik in GW: “The fact that teachers in educational institutions across the country will go on strike this spring is practically certain. The Polish Teachers' Union and the Forum of Trade Unions have already initiated collective dispute procedures in as many as 23,000 institutions, which is roughly three-quarters of schools and kindergartens. Even more may be interested in striking, as even the educational "Solidarity" union made a similar decision last week. These three unions collectively represent about 300,000 teachers, which is almost every second person employed in education.”
-- ZALEWSKA WANTS TO FLEE TO BRUSSELS - GW CONTINUES: “Teachers are also irritated by the fact that Zalewska might flee to Brussels to avoid the negative consequences of her actions. Although she herself has claimed until now that she intends to see her reform "through to the end," her party has just announced that the minister will be given the top spot on the PiS list in the May European Parliament elections in Lower Silesia.” http://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,24473282,rok-bez-matur.html#
-- IN SUCH A EUROPE, PIS IS SUDDENLY BECOMING MAINSTREAM AND FINDING ITS FOOTING EVER BETTER: “But Polexit is also unrealistic because in the three and a half years since the last elections, the Union has changed radically. No one familiar with Brussels realities believes anymore in the new leap in integration that was supposedly to occur once the Community freed itself from the British brake. The vision of a two-speed Union can safely be relegated to the realm of fairy tales. In such a Europe, PiS is suddenly becoming mainstream and finding its footing ever better. And therefore, it has no intention of leaving it.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/190219231-Opozycja-nie-ma-pomyslu-na-Europe.html
-- SOME POLES MURDERED JEWS, BUT KATZ IS BECOMING THE WASZCZYKOWSKI OF ISRAELI DIPLOMACY - RADOSŁAW SIKORSKI in conversation with Jacek Nizinkiewicz in RZ: “But we must acknowledge the facts that some Poles murdered Jews during the war – and it was more widespread than one might think. But there is a fundamental difference between saying "some" and "all Poles." The statement about anti-Semitism sucked from one's mother's milk is as much a generalization as saying that all Jews are greedy. Israel Katz – it seems – wants to become the Witold Waszczykowski of Israeli diplomacy. Sad.”
-- FORMER ALLIES OF THE THIRD REICH HAVE BETTER RELATIONS WITH ISRAEL THAN POLAND - SIKORSKI CONTINUES IN RZ: “PiS has managed to ensure that countries that were allies of the Third Reich have better relations with Israel than Poland and are less vilified for the events of World War II.”
-- THE PRESIDENT DOESN'T HAVE ENOUGH BALLS - SIKORSKI CONTINUES WITH NIZINKIEWICZ: “If Andrzej Duda were a true president, he would convene the National Security Council every month as an instrument of his influence. Especially since the challenges facing Poland are serious and the global economic situation is deteriorating. Unfortunately, the President doesn't even have enough balls for that.” https://www.rp.pl/Wywiady-i-rozmowy/190219227-Radoslaw-Sikorski-Kleska-polityki-historycznej-PiS.html
-- THE LARGEST GROUP OF VOTERS IS RIGHT-WING, THE POLISH CENTER IS ON THE CENTER-RIGHT - PIOTR PACEWICZ ANALYZES IPSOS RESEARCH IN OKO: “There are three times as many people with right-wing views as in each of the other groups, and this proportion is relatively stable. In the August (2018) OKO.press poll, the results were almost identical, and there were even slightly more right-wing individuals – 43%. In Polish politics, the center does not lie in the center at all, but is located somewhere on the center-right. PiS must primarily focus on maintaining support on the right. It is more profitable for them, even at the cost of provoking the dislike of the majority of society, than risking the departure of right-wing voters as a result of moving towards the center.”
-- WIOSNA MAY TAKE VOTERS FROM PIS BECAUSE IT HAS LESS ELITE VOTERS THAN THE EUROPEAN COALITION - PACEWICZ CONTINUES: “Interestingly, Wiosna has relatively even support across education levels (respectively: from junior high school to higher education: 14%, 9%, 13%, and 13%), which means it has a less intellectual profile than the European Coalition (respectively: 15%, 32%, 31%, and 47%). It is also less urban-focused than the EC and reaches less affluent individuals. Biedroń's 'joyful left-wing populism' may attract anti-PiS opposition voters for whom the EC is too 'elitist.'”
-- PACEWICZ ON PO AS A WISE CHRISTIAN DEMOCRACY: “Threatened by the left-wing coalition, Civic Platform would be forced to define itself as a center-right force, developing its economic and social proposals, rather than limiting itself to criticizing PiS policies. In response to PiS's wise Christian Democratic policy, it would be helpless, as any step towards the center would expose Kaczyński to losing his main reservoir of right-wing voters (where competition lurks). Real support must therefore take into account how many PiS voters actually have right-wing views, how many Wiosna voters have left-wing views, or how many center-right voters are from Kukiz’15.” https://oko.press/balast-prawicy-polsku-przechyla-polityke-ale-ta-sila-pis-jest-tez-slaboscia-sondaz-oko-press/
-- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON INTERNAL PIS CORRECTION: “The composition of the lists indicates a rather significant internal correction – Deputy Prime Minister Szydło, Minister Kempa, Minister Kopcińska, Minister Zalewska, Minister Brudziński, Minister Sellin are running. However, the opposition's malicious remarks about an "evacuation operation" of the government seem exaggerated. The most significant consequence may not be changes in the government, but within PiS. The possible transfer of the Minister of Interior, Joachim Brudziński, to Brussels and Strasbourg is a surprise; the rest of the government names are rather expected. The mandate of MEP for Deputy Speaker Beata Mazurek could bring a significant change in PiS's decision-making center.”
-- KARNOWSKI ON THE MAINTAINED CENTER COURSE OF PIS: “Overall – without major fireworks, but also without excessive risk. A clear confirmation by Jarosław Kaczyński that the current center course will be maintained.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/434699-korekta-wewnatrzpisowska-silna-polityczna-delegacja-w-ue
-- PAWEŁ WROŃSKI ON THE CATASTROPHE OF FOREIGN POLICY - writes in GW: “In the last three years, thanks to 'subtle foreign policy' and 'playing in a higher league' (as Morawiecki claims), we have managed to aggravate relations with Ukraine, key EU countries, particularly Germany and France, with Norway, and most recently even with Sweden, whose ambassador the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned to express objection to the Swedish court's negative decision regarding the extradition of former Stalinist prosecutor Stefan Michnik. The fact that we managed to transform the peace conference in Warsaw into a war conference, and as a result have poor relations with both Israel and the traditionally friendly Iran, is a masterpiece of amateurism.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,159535,24472993,kryzys-dyplomacji-nie-ma-co-sie-smiac-trzeba-ratowac.html
-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON THE MISTAKE OF CONSIDERING HISTORY AS THE MAIN REFERENCE POINT - writes in RZ: “Our painful and tragic history means that if the past is to be our main reference point, we will never establish sensible relations with our neighbors. It is no coincidence that relations with our most important partners: Germany, Ukraine, and Israel, are so complicated precisely because of events that took place 80 years ago. We cannot escape from history, but focusing solely on it means betting on what will always divide us from other countries. Such is our history.”
-- TWITTER DIPLOMACY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RADICALS - SZULDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “Instead of pursuing our state's interests, diplomacy – under the influence of groups active on social media – is beginning to pursue foreign policy dictated by radicals. (...) For example, nationalistic circles are very strong on social media, even though they received about one percent of the vote in the last elections. Despite this, their influence on diplomatic actions concerning Jewish or Ukrainian matters is measured by their reach on Twitter and Facebook, not their real political significance. As a result, instead of pursuing state interests, diplomacy is beginning to pursue foreign policy dictated by extremist groups. This – as I call it – twitter diplomacy may cost us dearly.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/190219252-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Kto-utrudni-poprawe-relacji-z-Izraelem.html
-- POLAND IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO THE USA - BARTŁOMIEJ RADZIEJOWSKI IN NOWA KONFEDERACJA: “In a strategic sense, Israel is of great importance to Poland, primarily due to its first-class status and influence on the United States, which under Donald Trump's administration is as supportive of Jerusalem (literally and figuratively) as perhaps never before. But Poland is also of great importance to the USA: the dependence and possibilities of influence are therefore bilateral, though asymmetrical.”
-- THERE SHOULD BE TANGIBLE BENEFITS GOING BEYOND PROVINCIAL PRIDE IN BEING THE HOST OF AN INTERNATIONAL EVENT - RADZIEJOWSKI CONTINUES: “Of course, there is no point in attributing too much importance to a single event. Building closer Polish-American relations is a process, and the Middle East conference is an incident. We also do not know what exactly negotiations the government is currently conducting with the Americans. However, firstly, these two dimensions should be commensurate. If we publicly provoke the anger of a regional power sponsoring terrorism, then the Polish public should be informed of the tangible benefits associated with taking such a risk, going beyond provincial pride in hosting an international event.” https://nowakonfederacja.pl/17865-2/
-- BIRTHDAYS: Mirosław Mikietyński, Łukasz Grass, Marcin Cieślak, Wiola Paprocka, Maciej Kozłowski, Sławomir Sierzputowski, Adam Rogacki, Błażej Lenkowski.
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