state of play: 02/12/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Kolenda-Zaleska: If the parliamentary opposition doesn't stop 'muddling through,' voters will finally get angry; Lipiński: PiS can't count on a repeat of 2015; Majmurek: PiS's negative trend

Łukasz Mężyk

-- STANISŁAW KARCZEWSKI ON THE TADEUSZ MAZOWIECKI MONUMENT: If I were the mayor of Warsaw, I would definitely have approved the monument to Tadeusz Mazowiecki - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/02/12/

-- FORMER ORLEN CEO ARRESTED: At the command of the Regional Prosecutor's Office in Łódź, three individuals from PKN Orlen's management, including former CEO Jacek K., were arrested on Tuesday morning - informs the National Prosecutor's Office. According to the National Prosecutor's Office, the arrests are the result of a multi-threaded investigation conducted by the Regional Prosecutor's Office in Łódź concerning economic crimes and fiscal offenses. https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/byly-prezes-orlenu-zatrzymany-przez-cba-podejrzany-o-niegospodarnosc-w-wielkich-rozmiarach-6348639799101569a.html

-- ORLEN STATEMENT: In connection with today's information from the Regional Prosecutor's Office in Łódź and the CBA, we inform that PKN ORLEN is cooperating with the relevant authorities to fully clarify matters related to the activities of the former CEO, dismissed in December 2015. We strive for the quickest possible clarification of the current situation.

-- TRUMP RAISES THE STAKES AHEAD OF THE WARSAW CONFERENCE - RZ'S NUMBER ONE: “But it looks like we will receive a reward from America for this. Because, as high-ranking diplomatic sources tell 'Rzeczpospolita', 'the USA is currently improving its offer to strengthen its military presence in Poland.' Vice President Mike Pence is to mention this in Warsaw, although the Pentagon will announce the final decision in March”. https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/190219872-Trump-podbija-stawke-przed-konferencja-w-Warszawie.html

-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI WRITES IN RZ THAT THE AIM WAS TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT SUBORDINATE TO THE PARTY, NOT A THINK TANK: “If the PiS leader wants to strengthen conservative thought, he should think about how to improve the lot of circles that have been forging new concepts and ideas for years, contrary to the mainstream. However, they sometimes criticize PiS. The question is whether the aim is indeed to strengthen right-wing thought, or to create an environment completely subordinate to the party”. https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/190219876-Think-tank-prezesa-Kaczynskiego.html&template=restricted

-- PAWEŁ WROŃSKI WRITES IN GW ABOUT THE PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE DILEMMA: “Probably no one has any illusions that the matter of building skyscrapers and Kaczyński's role in it will be another one that PiS will want to hide, and not even under the rug. I sympathize with the prosecutor who decides to initiate proceedings in the current situation. This would mean that contrary to the assurances of PiS politicians and official propaganda, there is something on Kaczyński's tapes after all. We will also find out if Jarosław Kaczyński truly 'can do everything', except build a skyscraper”. http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24449931,tasmy-kaczynskiego-prezes-locuta-srebrna-finita.html

-- JAKUB MAJMUREK WRITES ON WP THAT PIS HAS NO IDEA HOW TO REVERSE THE NEGATIVE TREND AND ANOTHER 4 YEARS OF PIS ARE INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY: “Referring to Ewa Kopacz's famous slip of the tongue, Kaczyński joked that 'PiS is an armadillo with thick skin. You could say a mammoth-armadillo.' Mammoths, like glyptodons – large armadillos from the Miocene and Pliocene – eventually became extinct. Large size and thick skin do not always ensure an evolutionary advantage. The same may be true for today's PiS power. At the beginning of the year, most commentators agreed that the opposition's return to power in the autumn was possible, but unlikely. Now – in the face of further scandals and the strength of Biedroń's Spring – a second PiS term seems increasingly unlikely. In an interview given on the most favorable ground possible, it is certainly not apparent that the leader of the grouping has an idea how to reverse the negative trend”. https://www.wp.pl/?s=opinie.wp.pl%2Fsgwpsgfirst-6348267839027329a

-- KATARZYNA KOLENDA-ZALESKA WRITES IN GW THAT IF THE PARLIAMENTARY OPPOSITION DOES NOT STOP 'MUDDLING THROUGH,' VOTERS WILL GET ANGRY: “Grzegorz Schetyna understands that he must give value to his former coalition partner. He first wanted to form a Christian Democratic coalition with them for the European elections, but the Peasants refused. Now he is waiting to see what the party authorities will decide at the end of the month. The future of politics in Poland depends on the choice made by PSL. For a party on the verge of the electoral threshold, this is quite a good prospect. In one thing, the PSL leader is surely right. If the parliamentary opposition does not put an end to 'muddling through,' voters will eventually get angry”. http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24449678,od-wyboru-jakiego-dokona-psl-zalezy-przyszlosc-polityki-w.html

-- MANY VOTERS DESIRE HOPE AND A NARRATIVE - ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI IN HIS REFLECTIONS ON POPULISM IN LIBERAL CULTURE: “In this sense, Biedroń has drawn conclusions from the popularity of so-called populist movements. Because if there is any common denominator among the new parties and political leaders sprouting up all over the West – both those considered populist, as well as those like Emmanuel Macron's La République En Marche or Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party – it is the promise of radical change. Many voters desire hope and a narrative that will allow them to better understand the world around them. Whether fulfilling these expectations is even fully possible is a less important matter”. https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/02/12/pawlowski-robert-biedron-wiosna-populizm/

-- MACIEJ GDULA STATES IN A CONVERSATION WITH TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA THAT THE CIVIC COALITION IS ABOUT A FIXTURE BETWEEN POLITICIANS: “I have two problems with the concept of the Civic Coalition. The first is that it's a kind of fixture between politicians. It's about who shows up and who gets spots on the lists. Even commentators favorable to the Civic Coalition were disgusted by what happened between Schetyna and Lubnauer. And I don't blame them”.

-- COALITION FROM GIERTYCH TO NOWACKA - GDULA FURTHER IN KL: “But I have another problem with the Civic Coalition. It's a formation that stretches from Roman Giertych to Barbara Nowacka. I know Giertych has changed more than Nowacka, but it's still Giertych. People joined PO not because they liked the program, but because it was strong”.

-- WE MUST RECOGNIZE THAT WE DIFFER AND THIS IS NOT A REASON TO LIVE IN DESTRUCTIVE CONFLICT - GDULA FURTHER IN CONVERSATION WITH SAWCZUK: “We have a different idea for Poland, and that idea is cooperation. It's not about everyone loving each other and everything being nice, as some commentators accuse Biedroń of. But we must recognize that we differ, and this is not a reason to be in a destructive conflict. If we acknowledge diversity on many levels, differences in gender, sexual orientation, regional and class differences, only then will we be able to cooperate. There will be no expectation that everyone must think and act the same way. This will unleash new potentials”.

-- A DIFFERENT PRO-EUROPEAN NARRATIVE INSTEAD OF MERELY BEING IN THE EU AS A SUCCESS - GDULA FURTHER: “But Spring will introduce a change in thinking about Poland's role in the European Union. It will be a paradigm shift, a completely different narrative that will be very pro-European, and at the same time will not repeat the thinking that dominates in the Platform circle, that Poland's greatest success was already simply joining the European Union. We can expect to invent a new place for Poland in Europe. This will happen in the coming months”. https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/02/12/maciej-gdula-wiosna-wywiad-sawczuk/

-- WŁODZIMIERZ CZARZASTY STATES TO ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI IN KL THAT WITHOUT PSL AND SLD, PO WOULD NOT GOVERN IN PROVINCIAL ASSEMBLIES: “After these elections, we have 7 city mayors, Platform 22, PiS 5, PSL 2, and Kukiz 1. And together with PSL, PO, and Nowoczesna, we co-govern in eight voivodeships. It turns out that PSL and SLD are essential for Platform to co-govern at the local government level”.

-- CZARZASTY ON A JOINT LIST: “The broadest possible coalition that will run first for the European Parliament and then for the Polish Parliament. The basis for the European Parliament elections would primarily be the promise that this coalition will block the possibility of Poland leaving the EU, because we believe that if PiS governs for another term, such a threat exists. And the second step of this coalition would be to run in parliamentary elections under the banner of 'Constitution,' meaning the defense of rights that are close to parties of the democratic current. I include left-wing parties, PSL, Nowoczesna, and PO in this current. This is the second variant. Both will be discussed at the convention”.

-- CZARZASTY STATES THAT SLD MEPs WILL JOIN PES: “If people I value, such as Miller, Cimoszewicz, Belka, Liberadzki, Zemke, Piekarska, or Wenderlich, decide to run and are elected, they will be in the Party of European Socialists. People associated with PO and PSL will join the European People's Party, and those from Nowoczesna will join the liberal ALDE faction. No serious person has ever taken a different stance”. https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/02/12/czarzasty-pawlowski-wywiad-biedron-wiosna-sld/

-- MARCELINA ZAWISZA STATES TO JAKUB BODZIONY IN KL THAT RAZEM HAS NO BUSINESS OR MEDIA HOUSES BEHIND IT: “Well, we don't have business behind us, or Leszek Balcerowicz who will pat us on the back and promote us, we are not friends with the owners of media houses in Poland. Another thing is that we have also made mistakes…”

-- MARCELINA ZAWISZA ON RAZEM'S MISTAKES: “We did not focus on leaders and diluted leadership. We were slow to respond to the media's needs, which wanted a maximum of 2-3 people representing Razem”.

-- ZAWISZA ON RAZEM'S TALKS WITH BIEDROŃ: “Talks are underway regarding a coalition with Robert Biedroń, but I cannot say more at this time”. https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/02/12/zawisza-razem-biedron-lewica-wybory/

-- ŁUKASZ LIPIŃSKI WRITES IN POLITYKA THAT BIEDROŃ MAY SHIFT THE POLITICAL SCENE TO THE LEFT: “Biedroń's inauguration has already yielded something: he has introduced topics into public debate that are avoided or not treated as a priority by most parties (social pensions, ecology, attitude towards the Church). This may lead to a certain shift of the political scene to the left – in a country where it has been clearly tilted to the right for many years”.

-- PIS CANNOT COUNT ON THE SITUATION FROM 2015 - LIPIŃSKI FURTHER: “On the other hand, PiS cannot count on a similar coincidence as in 2015 and will likely need a coalition partner or partners to stay in power – probably from Kukiz '15 or Wolność. Paradoxically, it seems that the key to taking power may be held by all these 'small fry'. For all these reasons, I would refrain from shouting: 'Biedroń the savior!' or 'Biedroń the traitor!', as some are doing. Perhaps in the end, it will not be the former mayor of Słupsk who decides who will prevail in the autumn”. https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/swiat/1781880,1,wiosna-rosnie-na-platformie.read?src=mt

-- ANTONI DUDEK TELLS JACK NIENKIEWICZ IN RZ ABOUT THE SERVICES FAVORING COMPETITORS SCUTINIZING BIEDROŃ: “Whether Spring can become the third force in Polish politics, because it certainly won't be the second, we will see only after the European Parliament election results. I wouldn't attach too much importance to the current, initial polls, which are very favorable for Spring, as it is currently benefiting from a phenomenon known in Polish politics as the 'novelty bonus.' We will see how they look in two or three months, when Biedroń and his entourage begin to be scrutinized by the media and various services favorable to competitors”.

-- BIEDROŃ IS A PROBLEM FOR PO - DUDEK FURTHER IN RZ: “Biedroń is becoming a problem for PO and those left-wing groupings that do not want to acknowledge the leadership of the former mayor of Słupsk”. https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/190219877-Prof-Antoni-Dudek-Biedron-jest-wyzwaniem-dla-PO.html&template=restricted

-- RAFAŁ WOŚ IN SE STATES THAT BIEDROŃ MEANS THE END OF THE POLAND OF THE KURSKI BROTHERS: “There will be time to assess Biedroń's ideas. Although it is worth noting already now that at first glance, the economic part of Spring's program (citizens' pension, higher minimum wage, teacher raises) seems very sensible. But more on that soon. For now, let's note one thing. For a week now, it looks like Poles do not have to be forever condemned to a false choice between the Kurski brothers (one heads TVP, the other Gazeta Wyborcza), or to swivel politicians like Morawiecki or Gowin (yesterday with Tusk, today with Kaczyński). That's something. So maybe indeed, it's spring?” https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/rafal-wos-koniec-polski-braci-kurskich-aa-4xiS-ih9X-BGKz.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Marek Magierowski, Michał Krupiński, Jan Kidawa-Błoński, Andrzej Godlewski, Rafał Baniak, Szymon Gutkowski, Krzysztof Strzałkowski.


Łukasz Mężyk