state of play: 02/11/2019

POLITICAL GAME: Żakowski: Spring's Biggest Advantage is its Existence and Potential to Wedge Between PiS and PO; Szułdrzyński: Spring Could Be a Key Player in the Fall; Miller: Czarzasty Preceded Me About Schetyna's Call

Łukasz Mężyk

-- CIMOSZEWICZ ON BEING 90% SURE OF A SINGLE LIST FOR PO-SLD-PSL - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/02/11/

-- JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI IN AN INTERVIEW WITH THE MEDIA ON HIS DESIRE FOR THE LECH KACZYŃSKI INSTITUTE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF THE BATORY FOUNDATION: “For many years, I have had a dream, which is perfectly legal, although it may not be popular in many circles, for the Lech Kaczyński Institute to become a serious competitor to the Batory Foundation. (...) It would be a serious ideological undertaking, perhaps something like the Adenauer Foundation, providing a significant foundation for Polish patriotism and state thinking.”

-- AUSTRIA WILL READ TEXTS SAYING I CAN DO ANYTHING HERE - CONTINUES JK: “I could not have behaved differently, both for legal and moral reasons, and because, although I read about myself being a bloody, fascist dictator, I cannot force the board or the council to accept an unfounded invoice. They would resign faster than accept it. (...) They settled here, bought a house, and this Austrian probably concluded that he would simply live well off this investment. Perhaps he read texts suggesting that I can do anything here. The problem is that there was no legal basis for payment.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/jaroslaw-kaczynski-o-nagranych-rozmowach-bylem-pod-naciskiem-ze-strony-rodziny/2zz4gjr

-- LESZEK MILLER DISMISSES SPECULATION - CZARZASTY PREEMPTED ME ABOUT SCHETYNA'S CALL - he tells Kamila Terpiał:

"Today, we lack more Staszics than Rejtans," you said when signing the "European Coalition for Poland" declaration. Who do you see in the role of Staszic?

Staszic is associated with Enlightenment, thoughtful, positivist, and constructive action. In the statements of PiS politicians, I see Rejtan, and the European Coalition should be Staszic.

-- Is it the entire coalition or its initiator, PO leader Grzegorz Schetyna?

-- Grzegorz Schetyna has taken on a very difficult role. We should not hinder him, but help him. I am glad that his concept is working. The latest polls confirm this. Schetyna called me and other former prime ministers with a proposal to sign the declaration and call on the opposition to run together in the elections.

-- Did you then grab the phone and call...?

-- Włodzimierz Czarzasty had previously informed me of such a possibility, so I confirmed that I would attend the meeting.

-- So, the relationship between the former head of SLD and the current one is not as bad as people say.

-- It varies, but our relationship is as it should be. Czarzasty faces very difficult challenges.” https://wiadomo.co/leszek-miller-jesienne-wybory-beda-gra-o-najwyzsza-stawke/

-- IT'S NOT THAT BAD FOR THE RESIDENTS OF PODLASIE IF THE NATIONALISTS HAVE TROUBLE COLLECTING SIGNATURES - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “Regarding Deputy Minister Andruszkiewicz, whom the media accused of participating in signature forgery, it is comforting that the nationalists are having trouble collecting 10,000 signatures in Białystok. This means it's not so bad for the residents of the capital of Podlasie yet.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/302109965-Dabrowska-Narodowcy-i-ich-biegi-przelajowe-na-skroty.html&template=restricted

-- PLN 10 BILLION FROM THE GOVERNMENT FOR TAXPAYERS - Marek Chądzyński, Bartek Godusławski in DGP's lead article: “The government is increasingly hearing that there is no more room for generous social transfers. Instead, the focus has returned to ideas of reducing contributions. As DGP has learned, two tax proposals from the Ministry of Finance have been sent to Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki: a significant increase in income-generating costs or the creation of a new PIT relief available to the employed. – We are continuously analyzing the tax and contribution system. They concern various parameters, including tax rates, contribution rates, tax-free allowance, income-generating costs, amounts deductible from the tax base, and tax reliefs. No decisions have been made regarding potential changes in the tax system – the ministry's press office responded to our question.” https://gospodarka.dziennik.pl/podatki/artykuly/590987,ulga-w-pit-koszty-uzyskania-przychodu-klasa-srednia-obietnice-wyborcze-pis-praca-pieniadze-rzad-morawiecki.html

-- THE NECESSITY OF SPRING, OR ON THE FALL OF THE DUOPOLY - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI in GW: “Spring's greatest advantage, in my opinion, is its existence and its potential to wedge itself between PiS and PO. Breaking this duopoly is a worthwhile endeavor. Because it makes the dominant theme of politics the intimidation of the other side. The fight is about who will scare us more with what, not about who will propose better solutions. Behind such a struggle lie oceans of stupidity, incompetence, corruption, and the ice cream deals made by politicians or their associates (like Srebrna or the thieving privatization).” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24446414,koniecznosc-wiosny-czyli-o-potrzebie-rozbicia-partyjnego-duopolu.html

-- RZ POLL GIVES BIEDROŃ 16%, BUT IT'S IBRIS: PiS 37.1%, PO 21.8%, Spring 16.2%, SLD with a result of 5.2%, PSL 4.8%, Kukiz'15 – 4.7%. Nowoczesna 0.6%. After calculating mandates, PiS can count on 226, PO on 121, Spring on 85, and SLD on 10. https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/302109952-Sondaz-Wiosenne-porzadki-w-polityce.html

-- BIEDROŃ MAY BE ONE OF THE KEY PLAYERS IN THE FALL - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “Doubling support is a bonus for a debut, but even when the novelty effect wears off, Spring will not dissipate. If Biedroń pursues a thoughtful strategy, maintaining interest and revealing more details of his program, he may – colloquially speaking – maintain high support until the European Parliament elections. Maintaining a podium finish in the May elections will give him a ticket to be one of the key players in the fall.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/302109967-Szuldrzynski-Bez-programu-tez-mozna-miec-wyborcow.html&template=restricted

-- TUSK'S RETURN IS LESS ATTRACTIVE THAN BEFORE BIEDROŃ'S INITIATIVE - TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “The idea of Tusk's return to domestic politics 'on a white horse' is certainly less attractive today than before Biedroń formed Spring. Those who are hoping for a new opening in Polish politics have fewer reasons to wait for Tusk.”

-- TUSK'S SCOPE OF ACTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHRUNK - SAWCZUK'S CONCLUSION: “The leader of PO has led to a situation where the choice is as follows: support Schetyna or not? If someone is unhappy with this arrangement, they must go with Biedroń for now. However, Schetyna and Biedroń are working hand in hand on one issue. The head of Civic Platform has skillfully protected himself against Tusk's return to Polish politics. In turn, the formation of Spring has a significance that has not yet been clearly recognized. Namely, for Donald Tusk, at least until the presidential elections, his scope of action in Poland has significantly shrunk.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/02/11/ruch-4-czerwca-tusk-komentarz-sawczuk/ -- BIEDROŃ HAS A CALMING EFFECT ON PEOPLE - ADAM WAJRAK IN CONVERSATION WITH KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: “I admire Biedroń for speaking with respect about people from the opposing side. I have this image in my mind: when some nationalists appeared at a meeting with him wearing shirts with the inscription 'No faggots allowed,' he approached them and took a selfie. He told them: 'Poland unites us.' I realized how I would have behaved in such a situation, or how most people would have behaved – we probably would have shouted 'Fascism will not pass!'. But there is something in him… that disarms bad emotions. They say he is not a new politician – and that's true, but he is a politician who has undergone enormous evolution. I remember him as a screaming gay activist, shouting 'The police are beating me!', who was only interested in LGBT rights – and today we have a modern statesman. Another image I have is when he stands before a full hall in the Sejm. The entire Sejm is laughing terribly, as when Lepper asked 'Can you rape a prostitute?', only there are about two hundred people laughing, because Biedroń said something, and it reminded them of his sexual orientation. And he endures it. He is also a guy from a small town, from an abusive family, who knows what alcoholism is. And in Poland, this is a very big problem. So I pin my hopes on him for a change in the style of politics. I will also tone it down a bit, because sometimes I let some not-so-nice things slip out. Biedroń has a calming effect on people.”

-- WE HAVE FEW CAPTIVATING FIGURES, AND BIEDROŃ IS THE MOST CAPTIVATING - WAJRAK CONTINUES: “This is very important to me – we are at a critical moment regarding the European Union. Both because of what is happening here and in the West. I didn't invent this, but politics is not just hard work, it's also theater and enchantment. It seems to me that our chance to return to the mainstream in Europe is the charming Robert Biedroń. That Obama or Trudeau effect. Because let's be honest, Grzegorz Schetyna will not stir the crowds at the Brandenburg Gate, no matter how much we respect him. Borys Budka will not do it. Rafał Trzaskowski might be such a figure, but he is already the mayor of Warsaw. We have few captivating figures, and Robert Biedroń is the most captivating of all of them.” http://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/czy-bedzie-wiosna-w-puszczy/

-- ANOTHER BUCKET OF PROMISES - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW CRITICIZES SPRING'S PROGRAM: “Since PiS won in 2015 thanks to populist slogans, other parties have decided that this is the best path to success. Of course, it's not about Poland's success, but their own parties'. Another bucket of empty promises was poured out during Biedroń's party convention, which promises pensions for people who do not have sufficient work experience, at a level comparable to Canada (many times richer than Poland), energy transformation faster than Germany, which has been conducting it for many years, and automatic shortening of waiting times for specialist doctors.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24444334,partyjne-obiecanki-cacanki-a-elektoratowi-radosc.html#S.-K.P-B.1-L.2.glowka -- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON ADAM MICHNIK'S COMMENTARY AFTER JAN OLSZEWSKI'S DEATH - HE WANTS TO ESCAPE JUDGMENT OF HISTORY: “That is precisely why Adam Michnik wrote what he wrote. By trying to posthumously embrace the Great Prophet, whom he so actively fought, by using contortions that divide the Deceased's life into two supposedly separate periods, he wants to escape the judgment of history.”

-- ONE DAY WE WILL READ THE SAME SENTENCES ABOUT THE PEOPLE ATTACKED TODAY CONCERNING THE CURRENT POLITICAL PERIOD - KARNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Observing these breathtaking turns by people with some memory, it's worth saying that one day we will read exactly the same sentences, acknowledging the correctness of those attacked today, about the current political period. Despite many stumbles, flaws, and weaknesses (every human collective is naturally full of them), the general vector of the state policy pursued today is a conscious undertaking of the task interrupted by the shameful night of June 4, 1992.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/433253-prawica-miala-racje-w-roku-1992-ma-tez-racje-dzisiaj

-- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON THE CHOICE OF KOREAN TRAMS INSTEAD OF POLISH ONES - NO ONE WILL BE ABLE TO SAY WHICH PROJECTS FOR POLAND HE IS CHOOSING BETWEEN: “There is one small benefit in this sad event: no one will be able to say on election day that they did not know which projects for Poland they were choosing between. The capital of Poland is a clear confirmation that the establishment of the Third Polish Republic truly wants things to remain as they were. To sell everything possible, to close everything that can be closed (Mr. Robert Biedroń is preparing such a fate for all mines), and to direct financial streams and orders abroad. At the other pole lies the repolonization of the banking sector (carried out in 2016 by Michał Krupiński, who is probably attacked for this) or PKN Orlen, managed by CEO Daniel Obajtek, which is increasing its offer of Polish products, investing in independent raw material supplies, and rebuilding the Polish petrochemical sector. The stakes are clear, and the trams chosen for Warsaw are another confirmation of this. The people of the Third Polish Republic have not changed one bit.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/433357-tak-lemingi-biora-zemste-na-polsce-za-rzady-pis

-- PIS ON THE WAVE OF FASCISM - MARCIN KĄCKI in GW: “Protecting fascists and nationalists is Jarosław Kaczyński's method of governance for years. Should we then be surprised by the protection of the crypto-fascist Andruszkiewicz? (...) This is the least surprising. Protecting fascists and nationalists is Jarosław Kaczyński's method of governance for years. It began in 2005 when PiS brought Roman Giertych into the government, before he underwent an ideological facelift. At that time, he was the one who took the Union of Polish Youth from the museum of disgrace, a mummy of pre-war nationalism, and dusted off its banners.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24446799,pis-na-fali-faszyzmu-rzady-kaczynskiego-od-lat-chronia-nacjonalistow.html

-- FORGERS UNDER SCRUTINY… AND PROSECUTOR'S OFFICE CARE - Ewa Ivanowa in GW's lead article: “Investigators from the District Prosecutor's Office in Białystok wanted to charge Deputy Minister of Digitization Adam Andruszkiewicz with leading the forgery of signatures on voter support lists. But their superiors – as shown by a report by 'Superwizjer' TVN 24 – blocked them. Even before the report aired, the investigation was transferred to Lublin. http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24446698,prokuratorzy-chcieli-zarzutow-dla-andruszkiewicza-ale-zostali.html

-- LUSTRATION BOMB UNDER THE CHAIRMAN - Wojciech Czuchnowski in GW: “So far, the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN) has not responded to our official inquiry about these dates. And one more thing: in the IPN reading room, one usually waits at least a month for documents from the moment of ordering. Three months doesn't surprise anyone either. However, Kujda's files – which, according to the registers, were located in Lublin – were received by journalists in Warsaw a dozen or so hours after the request was submitted.

-- CZUCHNOWSKI ON THE CONVICTION THAT MACIEREWICZ IS BEHIND KUJDA'S LUSTRATION: “Within PiS and among publicists associated with the party, there is a conviction that Antoni Macierewicz and his people, who have full access to the files, are behind the disclosure of Kujda's past. The reason for their action is to be the dismissal of Macierewicz from the position of Minister of Defense by Prime Minister Morawiecki (January 2018), the removal of his people from state-owned companies (PGZ, PWPW), and finally the arrest of his assistant Bartłomiej Misiewicz.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24444334,partyjne-obiecanki-cacanki-a-elektoratowi-radosc.html#S.-K.P-B.1-L.2.glowka

-- FAKT ON THE PRESIDENT'S COUSIN-IN-LAW: “Karolina Tomaszewska (33), daughter of Jarosław Kaczyński's (70) close cousin, is an important figure in the scandal that has shaken PiS. It was her husband, Austrian businessman Gerald Birgfellner (57), who accused the Law and Justice party leader of fraud, and previously secretly recorded business negotiations with him and his entourage. Karolina participated in these conversations as a translator. It's no wonder everyone is asking what is happening with this mysterious woman, as Kaczyński tries to recover from the blow dealt to him by his closest relatives.” https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/europoslowie-nie-chca-zwolnic-zony-austriackiego-biznesmena-ktory-nagral-kaczynskiego/et7bz4p

-- BIRTHDAYS: Maciej Sandecki, Marian Zembala, Jan Krzysztof Ardanowski.


Łukasz Mężyk