state of play: 02/01/2019

STATE OF PLAY: Matyja: It Reminds Me of Spring 2003 and the SLD's Troubles, Zaremba: Both Sides as Consortia Benefiting Fully from Political Capitalism. Against Their Backdrop, Only Śpiewak Shines, Śpiewak: I'm Curious About Such a Conversation Between HGW

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 300LIVE: EMILEWICZ ON THE SREBRNA CASE - A CAMPAIGN PROMOTING THE SERVICES OF TWO PATRONS, KRASNODĘBSKI RUDELY ABOUT BIEDROŃ AND THAT THE NIESIOŁOWSKI SCANDAL SHOWS ATTACHMENT TO HETEROSEXUAL LOVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/02/01/

-- ROBERT BIEDROŃ PUBLISHES MARYLA RODOWICZ'S SONG "ALE TO JUŻ BYŁO" (BUT THAT WAS ALREADY) AS A COMMENTARY ON THE EUROPEAN COALITION PRESENTED BY FORMER SLD AND PO PRIME MINISTERS: https://twitter.com/RobertBiedron/status/1091273938808770561

-- JAN ŚPIEWAK ON THE MUSEUM OF NATURAL HISTORY AND DINOSAURS: The launch of the European Coalition dangerously resembles the opening of the Museum of Natural History. They don't know when to say stop. It's clear our dinosaurs didn't listen to Ewa Kopacz's advice and are ready to be stoned by voters. https://twitter.com/JanSpiewak/status/1091273294593036288

-- PIOTR ZAREMBA RECALLS AN ANECDOTE ABOUT STEFAN NIESIOŁOWSKI - in Polska Times: "On Facebook, someone was arguing that Niesiołowski was incapable of arranging anything. I witnessed a scene at a party in 1998, at the beginning of the AWS government, where a businessman interested in contracts with Poczta Polska (Polish Post) invited politicians from ZChN because the post office remained under that party's control. Niesiołowski was one of those politicians. - Mr. Stefan, I propose Marzena - the businessman shouted, dragging a pretty hostess towards the MP. The matter was reported, and the para-corruption charges against Niesiołowski were meant to lead to him not being accepted into PiS in 2001. I suspect that even during the PO government, he had enough influence to arrange 'something'. After all, he wasn't treated as a marginal oddball, as he is today, but as an important politician of the camp. He probably didn't deal with serious matters, hence the price was so grotesque."

-- ZAREMBA ON PO AND PIS CONSORTIA, AGAINST WHICH BACKGROUND ŚPIEWAK SHINES: "In reality, both sides appear here as consortia that are fully benefiting from the spoils of political capitalism. Against their backdrop, only Jan Śpiewak shines, slandered by the liberal side's 'hunjwejbiny' (derogatory term for fervent supporters) for serving PiS interests. Because they cannot imagine a situation where one doesn't serve interests. Only that Śpiewak, with three percent support in Warsaw, has just fallen out of politics. It remains a deeply practical politics, focused on profits."

-- THE ENCLOSURE OF WARSAW LAND WITH GLAPIŃSKI'S HELP IS AMBIGUOUS - ZAREMBA FURTHER: "Unfortunately, this also applies to PiS. One can indulge in the fact that the party leader doesn't curse, is old-fashioned and witty, and takes a legalistic stance on invoices. This does not change the fact that the enclosure of Warsaw land (with the help of Adam Glapiński - where do we know this name from?) is something ambiguous."

-- IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS WILL NOT OVERTURN PIS, BUT WHERE IS THE COMMON GOOD IN DELIVERING BLOWS - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: "The presence in this company, obsessed with Roman Giertych, also testifies to this. Of course, the opposition has weaker means today, it doesn't have the prosecutor's office at its disposal. But instead of purification, it offers only the logic of 'who gets whom.' In many other matters, with Warsaw reprivatization at the forefront, it defended the most hideous status quo. That's all on this topic. Let's wait for further prosecutor's motions and further tapes. This is the Polish election campaign. It is possible that it will not overturn PiS, although in the coming months, it will be fending off increasingly numerous accusations. But by having the judiciary, it will probably deliver more accurate blows itself. Only where is the common good in all this, one would like to ask." https://polskatimes.pl/piotr-zaremba-stefan-niesiolowski-bartlomiej-misiewicz-pawel-olechnowicz-i-tasmy-kaczynskiego-zaczal-sie-ciag-kampanii/ar/13853048/3

-- THE POINT IS FOR POLITICAL DECISION-MAKERS TO DECIDE WHO IS A BILLIONAIRE AND WHO IS JUST A MILLIONAIRE - JAN ŚPIEWAK IN CONVERSATION WITH JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ: "This is an absolute pathology, the plan for a part of Wola has been adopted for 15 years. There is no substantive justification for why it is taking so long. We know unofficially that this is happening so that things like in Jarosław Kaczyński's party occur, so that decisions can be made independently of objective premises, i.e., the opinions of architects or the local community. The point is for political decision-makers to decide who is a billionaire and who is just a millionaire. That's why local zoning plans are not adopted, so that private investors hold this unofficial power over economic processes."

-- I'M CURIOUS ABOUT SUCH A CONVERSATION BETWEEN HGW AND NYCZ - ŚPIEWAK FURTHER AT NIZINKIEWICZ: "I'm curious about such a conversation between Gronkiewicz-Waltz and Cardinal Nycz – because just as we protested against the investment on Srebrna, we protested against the so-called Roma Tower. There, despite the voices of experts and the organized action of the local community, PO together with PiS pushed through the project of demolishing a historic Śródmieście quarter to build the Roma Tower on church land. The conversation would probably be similar to that from the 'Kaczyński tapes,' only this matter ended successfully because Cardinal Nycz is a friend of the madam president." https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/190139879-Jan-Spiewak-Warszawa-jest-deweloperskim-eldorado.html

-- ADAM LESZCZYŃSKI ON KACZYŃSKI NOT INTENDING TO FALSIFY ELECTIONS - ON ONE OF THE TAPE THREADS - IN OKO.PRESS: "It is clear from the recordings that Kaczyński – which the opposition often feared – does not intend to falsify elections or illegally influence their outcome. Therefore, there is even less certainty that his party will retain power. He is therefore concerned with securing it in case of defeat. Again: access to these resources will be available to those politicians who demonstrate loyalty and obedience." https://oko.press/w-pis-licytuja-sie-na-holdy-kaczynskiemu-bo-machlojki-to-oszczedzanie-partyjnych-pieniedzy/

-- ROMAN GIERTYCH'S SAFE OR BIEDROŃ'S MOVE - MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI IN KRYTYKA POLITYCZNA: "There are two ways to get out of this situation. First: one of the two sides of the conflict will finally launch an atomic strike and break through the wall of Polish indifference – although the attacked side might have a counter-strike arsenal in its sleeve, which will turn the public sphere into an atomic desert. Second way: a third actor will appear, whose credibility will be significantly higher for voters and who will re-tell Poland and our divisions to us – only it is unknown whether in the short term it will not strengthen the relatively strongest side today and prolong its reign. Does it only seem to me that the government's opponents are facing a dilemma today: Roman Giertych's safe or Robert Biedroń's move?" http://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/michal-sutowski/kaczynski-niesiolowski-dinozaury-bokserka-afery/

-- UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES CAN IT BE CLAIMED THAT THE JUDICIARY OPERATED FLAWLESSLY BEFORE 2015 - ROMAN GRACZYK IN INTERIA: "If that's not the case, what could be suggested? My suggestion would be that the opposition should not defend the pre-2015 system en bloc. Of course, the rule of law must be restored (starting with institutional rules concerning the Constitutional Tribunal), but under no circumstances can the thesis be proclaimed that the justice system before 2015 operated flawlessly. If that were the case, for example, the thieving reprivatization of Warsaw tenement houses would not have happened. The slogan, 'Let it be as it was,' is not only false (when making an assessment) but also politically suicidal. Elections are won in the center. The ruling party should not count on winning over the hard electorate of PO, just as the opposition should not count on winning over the hard electorate of PiS. One can realistically fight for the centrist electorate." https://fakty.interia.pl/opinie/graczyk/news-wladza-opozycja-problem,nId,2812147

-- RAFAŁ MATYJA TELLS MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI THAT PIS FACES DEMOBILIZATION: "There is certainly no possibility of provoking a serious mobilization brawl – with a clearly identified opponent, with a brutally condemned enemy, because any sharp attack on Platforma (Civic Platform) could be met with reserve by voters, including those who had not ruled out voting for PiS until now. This risks the demobilization of its electorate, meaning some will simply stay home. Similarly, the anti-EU rhetoric, which clearly doesn't work…"

-- ADAMOWICZ'S MURDER SOFTENED PO'S NEGATIVE IMAGE - MATYJA FURTHER: "Adamowicz's murder softened PO's negative image in the eyes of some people. On this principle: we believed public television that he was a bad person, and now it turns out it was different. Any attack on a politician, undertaken by public media, may now raise doubts."

-- THERE IS NO CENTER, IT'S BETTER TO MOBILIZE YOUR OWN ELECTORATE - MATYJA FURTHER: "Because it's not a real option at all, even if that center existed in 2015, it has disintegrated. There are no voters wavering between PO and PiS. And since it's a waste of time, it's better to mobilize your own electorate from 2015 and last year's local elections, possibly expanding it in the countryside by fighting the PSL, and through social or tax promises."

-- MATYJA IS SURPRISED BY ANALYSTS TALKING ABOUT A CAP PISTON: "I am surprised that some people I considered serious analysts – not bound by loyalty to PiS – say that this is a cap piston (a minor issue that will pass quickly). Every opportunity to look behind the scenes of politics, not with the help of 'anonymous sources' and gossip, but a source whose truthfulness no one questions, is material that allows for a better understanding of the mechanisms of governance. These are absolutely the most important matters, since Kaczyński devotes his time to them, not acting through intermediaries. That's the first point, and secondly – it is important what lawyers will find in this material and what troubles Kaczyński might have because of it. Even not as a party leader, or the leader of the ruling majority."

-- MATYJA ON IT REMINDING HIM OF SPRING 2003 AND THE TROUBLES OF SLD: "It reminds me of spring 2003 and the troubles of SLD. What's more, we don't know the dynamics of these matters – how much it's the effect of power struggles within the camp, how much it's the independent work of the services, how much finally some element of tactics towards the opposition. But those in power never fully control the course of events. Sometimes, for public opinion, some seemingly secondary details are also important. The matter of NBP staff salaries plays the role of 'ośmiorniczki' (octopus, referring to a scandal involving recordings of politicians and businessmen) today – the opposition should remember that for many people, this is a much more serious accusation than breaking the rule of law or, colloquially understood, 'hate speech.' http://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/pis-wybory-zwyciestwo-rafal-matyja-rozmowa/

-- SREBRNA LIKE A BAG OF SCANDALS - GW lead story - Wojciech Czuchnowski, Iwona Szpala: "Before the commission, he touched upon personal threads, inconvenient for PiS, which had previously – like the entire reprivatization scandal – been revealed by 'Wyborcza'. Nowaczyk began by saying that Jakub Rudnicki, former head of the Real Estate Management Office in the city hall, was hired there to look after the interests of the Srebrna company. His employment was supposedly arranged by the current heads of special services: minister and PiS vice-chairman Mariusz Kamiński and his deputy, PiS MP Maciej Wąsik." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24419368,srebrna-jak-worek-afer-zeznania-roberta-nowaczyka-rzucaja-nowe.html

-- THE CHARGE THAT OLECHNOWICZ CAUSED GREAT HARM TO LOTOS SOUNDS GROTESQUE TODAY - Krzysztof Katka in GW.

-- RYSZARD BUGAJ IN A TEXT FOR RZ ABOUT THE FACT THAT TODAY'S OPPOSITION, EVEN IF IT WINS, WILL REMAIN IN A DEADLOCK: "Having a strong PiS opposition in parliament and lacking a common and coherent program, it would probably easily fall apart. It must also be remembered that the economic situation could worsen, and decisions that infringe on the interests of various social groups will need to be made. Governing in these conditions requires a strong mandate of trust. Voters voting for the 'lesser evil' do not provide this. https://www.rp.pl/Publicystyka/190139834-Prof-Ryszard-Bugaj-Opozycja-w-impasie.html&template=restricted

-- ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ IN GAZETA.PL ON THE THREAT THAT BIEDROŃ POSES TO OTHER PLAYERS: "In the latest Pollster poll for 'Super Express,' Robert Biedroń's party received 10% support and became the third political force in the Sejm. It has never had such a high result before. This only confirms that it poses a threat to many players in Polish politics." http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24418813,biedron-czyli-zagrozenie-komu-napsuje-krwi-nowa-partia-bylego.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Kazimierz Nycz, Joanna Senyszyn, Tomasz Dudziński.


Łukasz Mężyk