state of play: 01/30/2019
-- JAN ŚPIEWAK ON FB: “Today's #KaczynskiTapes show the power of grassroots and civic initiatives. The PO-PiS establishment fears them the most. Just six months ago, Tomasz Lis, along with Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, insultingly called me a "PiS stooge." Today, we see that Jarosław Kaczyński feared the "Śpiewak operation." https://www.facebook.com/janekspiewak
-- GW ON 20 MEETINGS WITH THE AUSTRIAN: “When Birgfellner first arrived at Nowogrodzka in the spring of 2017, he was received by PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński. Three days later, during another meeting, Srebrna's management joined Kaczyński and Birgfellner. These were Małgorzata Kujda, wife of the head of the National Fund for Environmental Protection, Janina Goss, a friend of the Kaczyński family, and Jacek Cieślikowski, a councilor, field assistant, fleet specialist, and sometimes the PiS leader's driver.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24411785,tasmy-kaczynskiego-prezes-pis-20-razy-spotykal-sie-w-centrali.html
-- BIEDROŃ ON NATIONALIZING PiS ASSETS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/01/30/
-- EARTHQUAKE IN PiS - Fakt's front page.
-- GW'S CAP DIDN'T FIRE - GPC's front page.
-- DID FAMILY BETRAY KACZYŃSKI? - SE's front page.
-- IF ANYONE PREDICTED THE DARKEST MOMENT FOR PiS, THEY WERE MISLEADING EVERYONE - PIOTR ZAREMBA in DGP: “Anyone who predicted the publication of the so-called Kaczyński tapes as the darkest moment for PiS was misleading everyone. Jarosław Kaczyński's superficially read business conversation did not leave traces of abuses.”
-- IN THE CASE OF PiS, THE MOMENT OF WEARINESS WITH POWER HAS PROBABLY NOT OCCURRED - ZAREMBA continues: “The embarrassment of people associated with PO, recorded in the Sowa i Przyjaciele restaurant, coincided with a broader phenomenon of weariness with their rule. In the case of PiS, this moment has probably not yet occurred. The question is, what would cause such weariness this time?”
-- IF THIS IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING THE OPPOSITION HAS, THE RESULT IS LIKELY DECIDED IN FAVOR OF THE RULING PARTY - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: “PiS politicians will now repeat that the Srebrna skyscraper story is old news. The day before, they repeated like automatons that the attack on Macierewicz's people is proof that "there are no sacred cows." We have a taste of campaigns planned for months. If this is the most important thing the opposition has (as Lis suggested), the result is likely decided – in favor of the ruling party. But surely something is still in reserve. Rumors of other tapes are constantly circulating.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykuly/590230,niezgula-bez-konta-obraca-milionami-tasmy-kaczynskiego-srebrna-pieniadze-polityka-pis.html
-- SHATTERING A CAREFULLY CULTIVATED IMAGE - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ in TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Despite everything, the Austrian's fee is not the key issue here. The PiS leader has so far been considered a man uninterested in worldly goods. The recording revealed by "Gazeta Wyborcza" shatters this carefully cultivated image. Kaczyński turns out to be a full-fledged businessman, using state property and his political position for business.”
-- HE MAY BE RIGHT THAT PO BLOCKED THE INVESTMENT FOR POLITICAL REASONS - STANKIEWICZ continues: “Kaczyński may be right that Platforma blocked the investment for political reasons. But Kaczyński should not be disappointed with Platforma – this duel is predictable. He was disappointed above all by his family – the Tomaszewski clan, his maternal cousins.”
-- THE LEADER USES THE SAME METHODS FOR WHICH HE CRITICIZED OTHERS - STANKIEWICZ continues: “So, it was the broadly understood family that recorded the leader and went with it to the political opposition, which is now tearing him apart. It showed that the leader uses precisely the same methods in politics and business for which he criticized others. Kaczyński has always treated his family and their attached husbands and partners in a special way. And he always came out badly because of it.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/polityczny-wiezowiec-kaczynskiego-157426
-- UNLESS PLATFORMA IS CONDUCTING SIMILAR BUSINESS FOR SIMILAR SUMS, BUT MORE EFFECTIVELY AND DISCREETLY - PAWEŁ BRAVO in TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY: “Therefore, the torpedoing of the investment by the Warsaw City Hall – both the formal refusal to issue a zoning decision and the quoted on the tapes "you won't build anything here" by a certain PO MP – can be treated not only as bureaucratic malice and the use of local government power to annoy PiS, but also as an elementary reflex of the Platform defending a minimum of balance of power between the two rivals. Unless, of course, the Platform is conducting – only more discreetly and effectively – business worth similar sums.”
-- ROMAN GIERTYCH IS SHOWING INCREASINGLY BOLD POLITICAL INITIATIVE, ACTING OUTSIDE ANY SCOPE OF EVEN FLAWED CONTROL AND TRANSPARENCY REQUIREMENTS - PAWEŁ BRAVO continues: “So, we have another passive, silent consent: with decreasing surprise, we watch as Roman Giertych shows increasingly bold political initiative, acting at the same time outside any scope of even flawed control and transparency requirements to which politicians are subjected. On the contrary, by practicing his profession as a lawyer, he uses his rightful and undisputed right to professional secrecy.”
-- HE LOST THE AURA OF AN ASCETIC, BUT STRENGTHENED THE IMAGE OF A DECENT AND CULTURAL GRANDFATHER, WHICH MAKES HIM EVEN LIKABLE - BRAVO continues: “President Kaczyński has lost the aura of an ascetic and a man ignorant of hard business and large sums of money. But he has strengthened the image of a decent and cultural grandfather, somewhat detached from life. He doesn't curse and is surprised that a woman can wear torn trousers. For this, he can even be liked.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/krajobraz-z-wiezami-157429
-- THE PUBLICATIONS WERE HARMED BY HYPE - AGNIESZKA WIŚNIEWSKA in KRYTYKA O WSCHODNICH OBSESJACH LISA I GROCHAL: “Those who believe that nothing has happened obviously know that the entire situation described in "GW" is complicated, and when something is complicated, it doesn't evoke such unambiguous emotions. Furthermore, the publications were certainly harmed by their hype as the political event of the year. All those pompous statements in the style of: "The banner of the PZPR is being withdrawn," written at night by Tomasz Lis, did not help. And then came the morning Eastern obsessions: "If you think there's nothing extraordinary in these recordings, it means you don't need to go East. You are already there and have it within you" (Lis) or "I thought we were heading East, but I see we are already there" (Grochal).”
-- WIŚNIEWSKA ON HOW KACZYŃSKI FEARED ŚPIEWAK: “Kaczyński feared Śpiewak (“...new elements have been added, the Śpiewak operation. A new presidential candidate”), so he somehow, in his own way, appreciated and noticed his work. This may be a meager reward for the only person so far convicted in a case related to the reprivatization scandal (for publicizing the scandal), but it is a reward nonetheless.”
-- WIŚNIEWSKA ON HOW GW FORGAVE GIERTYCH: “Gazeta Wyborcza” has forgiven Roman Giertych for past mistakes; no one mentions the All-Polish Youth and a host of disgusting homophobic statements anymore. As Michał Sutowski writes, “Poland can afford better saviors of democracy” than Giertych, but “GW” probably doesn't want to wait for them. A year and a half ago, Adam Michnik told Sławek Sierakowski that he was convinced Duda could not win the presidential election; that if he had known he would win, he would have “gotten his ass moving and traveled around Poland,” and “at least his conscience would be clean.” http://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/agnieszka-wisniewska/tasmy-kaczynskiego-szafa-giertycha/
-- WIKTOR FERFECKI in RZ ON GIERTYCH'S AMBITIONS: “What is Giertych playing for? It might seem that he is at his peak right now. He has money, influence in the media and in politics. The latter does not involve submitting asset declarations – which, according to the lawyer himself, would be a burdensome obligation for him. However, almost all his acquaintances say that for Giertych, this is not enough. One of them argues: – He would see himself in the role of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Justice. In a PO government? That doesn't really matter.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/301299919-Roman-Giertych-mecenas-opozycji-i-wlasnej-kariery.html&template=restricted
-- THE MEDIA OPPOSITION HAD AN UNPLEASANT ADVENTURE - PIOTR SKWIECIŃSKI: “This shows the level of fanaticism that otherwise intelligent people could descend to. Belief in one's own propaganda is the worst thing that can happen not only to a politician but, more broadly, to someone involved in the public sphere. And it seems that these gentlemen and ladies have indeed fallen into it. This is not an optimistic signal for the opposition, the non-media, but the party one. It is also a warning for them regarding the extent to which they can be influenced by people who have so far lost touch with reality.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/media/431627-medialnej-opozycji-trafila-sie-przykra-przygoda
-- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ON BEING TRAPPED IN A VACUUM OF INFORMATION, WHICH ALSO THREATENS THE RIGHT SIDE:“More such attempts can be expected – all because of the current mood in the ranks of the opposition. The real excitement over the Kaczyński tapes (which are of negligible political value) shows how much of the PO-KO elite and their allied media live in their own world, detached from reality and what Poles experience on a daily basis. Colloquially, in such cases, it's called believing in one's own propaganda, being enclosed in a vacuum of information. This latter process also threatens the right side, but that's a topic for a separate text.”
-- THE OPPOSITION NEEDS TO ROCK THE BOAT - FIJOŁEK continues: “It is clear that the opposition's strategy for 2019 will not be a painstaking effort to reach Poles with their program, nor will it even be the seemingly obvious moves of regularly grilling real issues and problems of the PiS camp, such as the recent turmoil around KNF, NBP, or PGZ and the arrest of Bartłomiej M. This type of strategy has failed because it yields results – potentially – in the longer term, and Platforma and its affiliates do not have time. What is needed here is a breakthrough: now, today, immediately. And that is why they need to maximally rock the boat, play for an electoral reset, rather than a slow, uncertain, and fragile regaining of votes among a discouraged electorate.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/431643-widac-ze-rok-2019-bedzie-gra-na-reset-i-rozhustanie-lodki
-- JAKUB MAJMUREK ON THE LIMITED IMPACT OF TAPES ON A POLARIZED SCENE: “On a strongly polarized political scene, the impact of tapes is also severely limited. Before the 2016 elections, a tape of Trump leaked to the media, in which he not only used sexist language but also essentially boasted about molesting women. Many commentators believed that this was the end of the billionaire's political career. They were mistaken. The tape resonated within the bubble of people who were already not considering voting for Trump. It did not alienate his base in any way. Will it be similar with the Kaczyński tapes? The coming weeks will show. The "Gazeta" publication will certainly trigger a political process with unpredictable dynamics. Who would have expected in 2002 that the Rywin tape would permanently eliminate the SLD from playing in the top league?” https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/tasmy-najwiekszy-koszmar-polityka/384tpdl
-- ON THE LEADER WHO WANTED TO BUILD SKYSCRAPERS - RZ's front page - as written by Zuzanna Dąbrowska: “PiS should explain why the head of the ruling party is involved in real estate development and an investment worth over a billion zlotys, and who was supposed to profit from it.
-- HOW THE ELECTORATE WILL ASSESS KACZYŃSKI'S NEW FACE - DĄBROWSKA continues: “The opposition has already trumpeted the fall of the myth of the PiS leader, the myth of a modest intellectual from Żoliborz. Too soon. How the "GW" publication and subsequent announced revelations will change the political scene depends on how PiS's electorate assesses Jarosław Kaczyński's new face.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/301299908-O-prezesie-ktory-chcial-budowac-wiezowce.html&cid=44&template=restricted
-- BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA ON THE QUESTIONABLE ENDORSEMENT FOR THE LEADER AND SMALL CHANCES OF SAVING THE POLLS - in RZ: “This already looks like a snowball effect. PiS's PR experts have their hands full. However, regardless of how they manage, they still have little chance of saving the polls. The surveys confirm this.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/301299924-Chrabota-Watpliwa-laurka-dla-prezesa.html&template=restricted
-- DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA - THE PIŚ LEADER'S PERSONAL INTEREST - writes in GW: “There is no hell now. The ruling party is conducting a business game, a politician can be a millionaire and not disclose it in an asset declaration, because formally the companies belong to someone else. And state banks can be treated like a party piggy bank. Now openly.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24411660,tasmy-kaczynskiego-nagrania-pokazuja-osobisty-interes-prezesa.html
-- SPOKESPERSON REPRIMANDED FOR JOKES - title in Gazeta Stołeczna about Trzaskowski's spokesperson.
-- BIRTHDAYS: Maciej Samcik.
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