state of play: 01/09/2019

STATE OF PLAY: PM on CNBC, Leszczyński on Giertych's rehabilitation, discussion with Michnik on Narutowicz… Obajtek: Fuel prices will drop, Karnowski: What will the opposition disguise itself as? DGP: PiS cautious about Salvini

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PRIME MINISTER IN A LONG INTERVIEW WITH CNBC - MANY OFFICIALS IN BRUSSELS WOULD LIKE TO MAKE POLAND A SCAPEGOAT: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/01/09/

-- FURTHER FUEL PRICE REDUCTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED - DANIEL OBAJTEK: “Fuel prices at PKN Orlen petrol stations have been falling since November, and further reductions can be expected in the coming days – the president of Orlen, Daniel Obajtek, informed PAP Biznes. In his opinion, with a favorable macroeconomic situation, this trend will continue in the future.”

-- DIESEL PRICE DEPENDS ON DEMAND AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT - OBAJTEK CONTINUES: "Fuel prices at our stations have been systematically falling since November. Further reductions can be expected in the coming days. And if the macroeconomic situation is favorable (referring to both the price of raw material and the dollar-to-zloty exchange rate), this trend will continue," PKN Orlen president Daniel Obajtek told PAP Biznes. He added that in Poland, average fuel prices remain among the lowest in Europe. The president of Orlen points out that demand for diesel in Poland is high, which results from the dynamic economic growth. "The price of diesel is influenced by its increased import, as our refineries are already operating at maximum capacity. Therefore, we are diversifying crude oil supplies and optimizing its processing costs. Investments that will enable increased processing capacity are therefore important, as fuels produced in our own refineries are cheaper," Obajtek said.” http://biznes.pap.pl/pl/news/pap/info/2662521,ceny-paliw-na-stacjach-pkn-orlen-beda-nadal-spadac---prezes

-- ANDRZEJ SZCZĘŚNIAK ON FUEL PRICES IN POLAND BEING SIGNIFICANTLY CHEAPER THAN IN GERMANY: “Firstly – diesel fuel, which is used by a minority of cars in Poland. If we compare the average gasoline prices in Poland at PLN 4.83/liter and in Germany – PLN 6.11 (six!) – we can see how much fuel actually costs in Poland and Germany. Secondly: the average diesel fuel prices according to Eurostat are PLN 5.10 in PL and PLN 5.57 in DE. Can you see where it's cheaper? It's 47 groszy more expensive in Germany.” http://szczesniak.pl/fakt-maniuluje-cenami-paliw

-- FINAL REHABILITATION OF ROMAN G. - WRITES ADAM LESZCZYŃSKI ON FB: “The final rehabilitation of Roman G. I will post this invitation without further comment. *Dear Sirs and Madams, we invite you to a debate organized by the National Museum and "Gazeta Wyborcza". The debate will take place in the main hall of the National Museum, on Sunday, January 20, 2019 | at 6:30 PM. Title: Collective Memory: 1905, the Great War, the assassination of Narutowicz. Panelists: Adam Michnik | Maciej Górny | Roman Giertych, moderator: Dorota Wysocka-Schnepf.” https://www.facebook.com/adamles75/posts/2069942353072506

-- CEZARY ŁAZAREWICZ COMMENT ON GIERYCH'S PARTICIPATION: “When Andruszkiewicz changes his stance, he will also be invited.”

-- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON WHO THE OPPOSITION WILL DISGUISE ITSELF AS THIS TIME AND WHAT IT WILL PRETEND TO BE: “Another day and another episode of the debate about the best form of the so-called 'anti-PiS' movement. Party and faction leaders are bustling like bees, one unification conference after another, commentators are prompting their preferred solutions, analysts are deciphering the meaning of polls. On the surface, it's normal political maneuvering. However, what is striking is the unprecedented cynicism and extreme hypocrisy of this debate. Because it's not a discussion about which personal tools to choose to implement a program, but about what to disguise oneself as this time. Whom to pretend to be, in order to most effectively deceive Poles.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/428744-dylemat-opozycji-za-kogo-sie-przebrac-kogo-poudawac

-- NEWSWEEK ON THE CATASTROPHIC START TO THE YEAR FOR PIS - MARTA SZYMCZYK: “At the end of last year, PiS tried to regain the initiative after difficult weeks dealing with the KNF affair. Prime Minister Morawiecki requested a vote of confidence to overshadow PO's motion for a constructive vote of no confidence and boasted about the achievements of the first 12 months of their government. A law was quickly passed that was intended to block electricity price increases. But the first week of January has already been a political catastrophe.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/fatalny-poczatek-roku-dla-pis-pierwszy-tydzien-to-kryzys-za-kryzysem/ke3j0q5

-- SALVINI, THE INCREASINGLY CLEVER ONE, IS ARRIVING - TOMASZ BIELECKI IN GW: “Who is Matteo Salvini, the most radical politician in power in Western Europe? Attacking Brussels, scaring with immigrants, using social media – this was his recipe presented to his colleagues when he took over the reins of the Northern League. But now he is slightly softening his Euroscepticism because he wants to become the Prime Minister of Italy. And to change the Union.

-- BIELECKI ON SALVINI'S GOALS: “Taking over the prime ministerial post after Berlusconi (after possible snap elections) requires Salvini to adopt a slightly softer line towards Brussels, as radicalism would scare off center-right voters. But not excessively – Berlusconi also hinted at leaving the Eurozone in recent years and demanded a significant weakening of the role of EU institutions. The only difference is that Berlusconi never took his rhetorical visions of abandoning the common currency seriously.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,2434361,przybywa-spryciarz-salvini-w-srode-spotkanie-z-kaczynskim.html

-- THE INTERNATIONAL OF POPULISTS TEMPTS PIS - BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI IN GW: “The pro-European turn recently announced by Prime Minister Morawiecki was merely a PR trick. One cannot defend Europe while fraternizing with its enemies.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,24343584,matteo-salvini-na-nowogrodzkiej-miedzynarodowka-populistow.html

-- BETWEEN ROME AND WARSAW LIES MOSCOW - Michał Potocki on the front page of DGP: “Not pro-Russian sentiment, but shared views on the EU are to be the basis of the alliance. PiS is approaching the offer cautiously due to the Italian politician's close relations with the Kremlin.

-- POTOCKI ON THE INVOLVEMENT OF ZIOBRO, BRUDZIŃSKI, BIELAN AND ANDERS IN CONTACTS WITH SALVINI: “The Italian newspaper “Il Fatto Quotidiano” reported yesterday that preparations for the visit to Warsaw had been underway for many months. According to Italian journalists, the first agreements on this matter were made during meetings between Deputy Foreign Minister Guglielmo Picchi and the Minister of Justice Zbigniew Ziobro, who is not a member of PiS. Adam Bielan and Anna Maria Anders also played a role in the talks, and the Minister of Interior Joachim Brudziński wrote on Twitter that he was the one who invited Salvini to our country in October 2018 (Salvini heads a similar ministry in Italy).”

-- POTOCKI IN DGP ON PIS'S CALCULATIONS: “Creating a strong, moderately Eurosceptic faction in the European Parliament could bring Kaczyński’s party more allies in the conflict with Brussels over the observance of the rule of law.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/588773,matteo-salvini-wlochy-europarlament-pis-sojusz.html

-- ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA ON PLANS TO TAKE THE SENATE FROM PIS - WRITES IN RZ - SILENCE FOR NOW: “This could be the most important test of the opposition's ability to consolidate its forces. Presenting a single candidate in each constituency in the autumn Senate elections would give them a chance not only to build a common front and gain a majority, but above all to effectively make life difficult for the new government if PiS were to win the Sejm elections again. A joint candidate from PO, Nowoczesna, PSL and SLD in many constituencies guarantees the opposition's victory over the PiS contender – this follows from simple arithmetic and analyses conducted in the main parties. Politicians from both PiS and the opposition are aware of this. Jarosław Kaczyński's party is reportedly already preparing contingency scenarios. And the opposition? Silence for now.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/301089907-Dabrowska-Senat-poligonem-dla-opozycji.html

-- RZ POLL ON CONCERNS ABOUT THE OPPOSITION'S SOCIAL POLICY: “According to a new poll, the information campaign conducted by PiS is achieving its goal: voters fear a deterioration of their living standards after an opposition victory.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/190109401-Sondaz-Kto-sie-najbardziej-boi-opozycji.html&template=restricted

-- WIKTOR FERFECKI WRITES IN RZ THAT KACZYŃSKI MAY TIP THE SCALES AT THE LAST MINUTE REGARDING THE KILLING OF ANIMALS FOR FUR: “How will he react when the vote on the PO's project or an amendment banning mink farming comes up? – Anything can happen – says one of the MPs. – First, Czabański will likely sit down and show the club how to vote. All it takes is for the leader to nod at the right moment, Czabański to raise his hand, and the industry will be ruined. And they probably realize this, the mink farmers. Known breeder Szczepan Wójcik said upon the appearance of the self-amendment: “The war is still ongoing.” As if he understood that the safest solution was to keep the projects in the freezer.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/190109403-Co-dalej-z-fermami-futrzarskimi-Wszystko-w-rekach-Kaczynskiego.html&template=restricted

-- LUDWIK DORN ON TUSK POSSIBLY NOT DECIDING TO RUN IF PIS WINS - writes in RZ: “If PiS formed a government, the chances of electing Tusk as president would be smaller, and moreover, even if an election took place, President Tusk could block the government with a veto, but would be condemned to constant wrangling and enduring countless humiliations. He himself humiliated President Lech Kaczyński in this way and can expect the same, only much more so. For a two-time Prime Minister of the Republic of Poland and President of the European Council, this is a not very attractive end to a political career.”

-- IF THE ANTI-PIS COALITION WINS, TUSK WOULD BECOME A QUASI-DICTATOR - DORN CONTINUES: “Let's assume, however, that the anti-PiS coalition forms the government, and Donald Tusk becomes President of the Republic of Poland. He will then find himself in the situation of a democratic quasi-dictator. On the one hand, PiS will be at the mercy of the anti-PiS majority, which is thirsting for revenge, and it will not be a problem for the president. On the other hand, the anti-PiS government will be powerless against President Tusk, as it will not have the qualified 3/5 majority in the Sejm needed to override a presidential veto, and therefore will only be able to govern with Tusk's consent. Donald Tusk will not have to 'steal' PO from Chairman Schetyna, because the entire party, with Schetyna at its head, will have to adapt politically to him; in a situation of mortal conflict with PiS, they will have no other choice.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/190109413-Dorn-Czy-czeka-nas-nowy-lad-polityczny.html&cid=44&template=restricted

-- GLAPINSKI'S WOMEN, POOH - GW'S FRONT PAGE - Agata Kondzińska, Rafał Wójcik: “A signal has come from Nowogrodzka that the closest associates of NBP President Adam Glapiński are to disappear from the bank – says our informant from the circle of PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński. Glapiński is not bothered by this.

-- GLAPINSKI DOESN'T CARE ABOUT SIGNALS FROM NOWOGRODZKA - GW CONTINUES: “According to our information, Glapiński, a close associate of Kaczyński for 30 years, is not bothered by signals from the PiS headquarters. – He cannot be fired, and he is not the type of Mariusz Błaszczak or Marek Suski, who are loyal soldiers. His term lasts until 2022, and even if PiS loses the elections, PO will not be able to remove him either, because there is no legal possibility to do so – explains our informant.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24343639,dworki-glapinskiego-uwieraja-pis-straca-prace-w-nbp.html#nowaZajawkaGlownaMT#S.DT-K.C-P.1-B.2-L.2.maly

-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON THE CRITERIA FOR STAFF SELECTION AT NBP - writes in RZ: “The President of the NBP should earn a very high salary because he guards the stability of the Polish currency and our financial system. The directors subordinate to him should also have high salaries, as a lot really depends on their decisions. The problem is not that the management of the central bank earns a lot. The problem is that the criteria for obtaining such lucrative positions are not clear. And this – not only at NBP – is becoming an increasing problem for the good change.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/190109433-Szuldrzynski-Coraz-wiekszy-klopot-dobrej-zmiany.html

-- ALEKSANDER HALL ON HOW NOWACKA IS IDEALISTIC BUT HER PROPOSAL SERVES TO GAIN CREDIBILITY AFTER CHANGING ALLEGIANCES - writes in RZ: “Barbara Nowacka, who is the face of the fight for a radical separation of church and state, is undoubtedly an ideological person, but I have no doubt that the implementation of her ideas would greatly harm the opposition if they were considered part of a common program. I believe that her stance is influenced by the desire to confirm the authenticity and consistency of her views in the eyes of anti-clerical voters, as Robert Biedroń, preparing for the role of leader of a new formation, and politicians from Razem are rather ungracefully suggesting that her accession to the Civic Coalition was a pragmatic choice and an ideological capitulation.”

-- THE PATH PROPOSED BY NOWACKA WILL END IN DEFEAT - IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO RIDE THE WAVE OF THE FIGHT AGAINST RELIGION - HALL'S CONCLUSION: “Imposing such a program on the entire opposition will end in a double defeat: giving PiS a second term, during which – obviously – no legislative changes proposed by liberal-left circles will occur.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/190109411-Hall-Nie-da-sie-plynac-na-fali-wojny-z-religia.html&cid=44

-- ROBERT BIEDROŃ IN RZ ON POLAND WITHOUT KACZYŃSKI: “In 2018, I made an important decision for myself – I am building a nationwide socio-political movement. I realized that there is no good future for Słupsk or any other smaller or larger city in Poland without a good future for the entire country. I did this because Polish politics has become enclosed in the shell of the past. We need to inject a new spirit into our state and politics. To revive it with our own energy. To find among us those who want to act as citizens for citizens, for the common good. Change can be our great common adventure. The year of change is coming, let's use it well. We are capable of it!” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/190109409-Biedron-Wyobrazmy-sobie-Polske-bez-Kaczynskiego.html&template=restricted

-- FAKT ON MOSBACHER'S INTERVENTION REGARDING UBER: https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/ujawniamy-list-georgette-mosbacher-do-ministra-andrzeja-adamczyka-ws-ubera/3velfzg

-- BIRTHDAYS: Mieczysław Gil, Marek Belka, Konstanty Radziwiłł, Krzysztof Leski, Michał Szułdrzyński, Jan Tomaszewski, Mirosław Piotrowski.



Łukasz Mężyk