state of play: 01/03/2019

Political Landscape: Trudnowski on PO's Conservative Replacement, Karnowski on Berlin's Euro Pressure, Środa's Sharp Remarks on Olejnik, and Szuldrzyński on PMM Legitimizing Andruszkiewicz

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 300LIVE - PO SUBMITS REQUEST TO SERVICES REGARDING ANDRUSZKIEWICZ: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/01/03/

-- MACIEREWICZ WAS A COLLABORATOR OF THE SB RESEARCH OFFICE - TOMASZ PIĄTEK in conversation with Dorota Wysocka-Schnepf on wyborcza.pl: “There are crushing revelations there. Most importantly, there's a note from the head of intelligence of the Polish People's Republic, communist intelligence officer General Sarewicz, from September 1984, stating that Macierewicz should be left alone. He signs a note stating there are no grounds to prosecute or repress Macierewicz. Even though at the same time, two weeks earlier, General Sarewicz and his team received a report indicating that Macierewicz had used forged documents, which was a crime, and a very serious one. Of course, this was in addition to his entire underground organizational and publishing activities, as he was publishing an underground magazine.

-- PIĄTEK ON ANDRUSZKIEWICZ AS PART OF RUSSIA'S INFLUENCE TOOLS: “We are all in shock after the New Year's Eve appointment of Adam Andruszkiewicz as Deputy Minister of Digitization. Adam Andruszkiewicz was described in a report by the think tank Political Capital as a Russian influence tool in Poland. Many publicists and activists have written about these connections, providing a colorful description. However, the documentation of these ties was provided, for example, by right-wing activist Marcin Rey, who, despite his right-wing views, consistently fights the Kremlin. 'Wyborcza' has also written extensively about the groups Andruszkiewicz has contacted, such as the Belarusian activist Usowski, who operates on behalf of the Kremlin; there are many valuable publications on this topic.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,82983,24324548,tomasz-piatek-macierewicz-byl-wspolpracownikiem-biura-studiow.html

-- GAZETA WSPÓŁCZESNA ON THE FRONT PAGE ABOUT HOW PIS IS DISMISSING DIRECTORS OF WORD (Regional Road Traffic Centers) IN PODLASIE.

-- MAGDALENA ŚRODA ON MONIKA OLEJNIK AND HER “WEAKNESS FOR AUTHORITARIAN PERSONALITIES” AND THE FUTURE OF ANDRUSZKIEWICZ, USING GIERTYCH AS AN EXAMPLE: “Nationalist Andruszkiewicz in the government?! What's the problem? In a few years, he'll be socializing, a social ornament for political elites, not necessarily right-wing ones. Perhaps he'll also become a favorite of Monika Olejnik, who has a weakness for authoritarian personalities. Her favorite – indeed, the favorite of everyone from the left (Miller) to the center (Tusk) – is the founder of Młodzież Wszechpolska (All-Polish Youth), Roman Giertych.”

-- ŚRODA ON GIERTYCH – HE DISGUISED HIMSELF IN THE SKIN OF A LIBERAL SHEEP AND SEDUCES POLITICAL CELEBRITIES: “The same one who brought this nationalist group into parliament, empowered it, stirred it up, and taught it entitlement. And now he has disguised himself in the skin of a liberal sheep and is effectively seducing political celebrities. It seems all the 'important' people use his legal and star services, as if he were the only lawyer and commentator in town. Or maybe it's just a trend? 'Only Gucci! Only Giertych!' http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24326722,noworoczne-zyczenie-srody-odzwyczajmy-sie-od-tego-do-czego.html

-- GW ON THE WARSAW GHETTO MUSEUM AND MAGIEROWSKI'S TEXT IN HAARETZ: “The Warsaw Ghetto Museum was established in March 2018 by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Minister of Culture Piotr Gliński. Its seat will be the historic buildings of the Bersohn and Bauman Children's Hospital at Sienna 60 and Śliska 51, where poor children, mainly Jewish, were treated from 1878. By the end of March 2019, an adaptation plan for the hospital for museum purposes is to be developed, and the museum is planned to open in 2023. On Wednesday, December 2nd, Poland's Ambassador to Israel (and former spokesperson for President Andrzej Duda, among others), Marek Magierowski, joined the dispute between Israeli historians in the portal's pages. In his article, the diplomat defends the decisions of Professor Blatman and protests against the alleged claims that Poland is manipulating history. 'We are the only country in Europe that properly honors the Holocaust' – reads the title of Magierowski's text.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,24326745,ambasador-polski-w-izraelu-jestesmy-jedynym-panstwem-w-europie.html

-- THE DYNAMIC WILL DEPEND ON SMALLER PLAYERS, NOT MORAWIECKI AND SCHETYNA OR EVEN KACZYŃSKI AND TUSK - PIOTR TRUDNOWSKI on the Klub Jagielloński website: “All of this means that the political dynamics of 2019 may largely not depend on Schetyna and Morawiecki, nor even on Kaczyński and Tusk. The decisions, dexterity, and condition of the smaller players will be very important in shaping the Polish political scene.”

-- CREATING A MODERATE CENTER IS KEY FOR THE STATE - TRUDNOWSKI CONTINUES: “Therefore, paradoxically, it is a more pluralistic political scene than today's that may require a return to the center to achieve electoral victory. In times of galloping polarization, we should all wish for this.”

-- THE BRIGHTEST POINTS IN THE ELECTORAL PORTFOLIO COME FROM THE SZYDŁO ERA - TRUDNOWSKI CONTINUES: “The statement repeated by commentators in recent weeks that the first year of the Morawiecki government was spent putting out fires is true. The fact that these were not caused by the former banker and ended with moderate success may not be enough for success in an election year. When we ask 'What has Morawiecki done as prime minister?' it turns out that compiling a list of successes is difficult. The brightest electoral points in PiS's portfolio come from the Beata Szydło government's tenure. The Strategy for Responsible Development has neither broken through to general awareness nor has its implementation provided grounds for formulating a spectacular success story. The only strategic narrative resource for the head of government today is the story of 'budget sealing' and 'taming VAT mafias.' The problem is that the propaganda of success can, firstly, become tiresome, and secondly, the history is not as unambiguous as the opposition will likely try to exploit.”

-- BY REPLACING THE CONSERVATIVE FACTION WITH NOWACKA, SCHETYNA WILL NOT CREATE AN ATTRACTIVE OFFER FOR THOSE WHO TRUSTED “GOOD CHANGE” IN 2015 - TRUDNOWSKI CONTINUES: “The policy of building a bloc around Civic Platform that is clearly drifting leftward prevents the transfer of voters from the United Right to the United Opposition. Jarosław Flis's recent conversation with 'Kultura Liberalna' provides pertinent arguments on this matter, emphasizing that 'people with left-wing views – leaning left by even one 'notch' on the 0–10 scale – constitute about 14 percent. And people with right-wing views constitute almost… 49 percent!', and 'PO suffered the greatest losses among 'Gowin' voters, meaning those who are economically liberal and socially conservative.' By replacing the former conservative faction with Barbara Nowacka, Schetyna is unlikely to create an attractive offer for those who trusted 'good change' in 2015. https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2019/01/02/rok-2019-albo-odbudowa-politycznego-centrum-albo-domkniecie-toksycznego-duopolu/

-- GROWING CERTAINTY THAT SOMEONE IN BERLIN IS WORKING HARD TO BREAK POLES REGARDING THE EURO - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “Despite this, there are increasingly more statements calling for the rapid adoption of the euro from the radicals associated with the Third Polish Republic. This includes those active in the party scene. Economically, it makes no sense, nor does it bring electoral gains. So, what is this all about? (...) Let me remind you: in November last year, 'Gazeta Wyborcza' published an interview with German journalist Robin Alexander, author of the book 'Angela Merkel and the Migration Crisis. Day by Day,' who let slip a curious detail when describing the EU debate on the mandatory relocation of immigrants: 'Merkel worked with Kopacz on the phone, and Piotrowska was in Brussels. Germany managed to break the Poles. Before the meeting, they were against it; at the meeting, they voted for Berlin's proposal. Kopacz's close working relationship with Tusk also played a significant role. And he, as President of the European Council, elected thanks to Merkel's support, needed successes.' I have a growing certainty that someone in Berlin is working hard now too, to break the Poles.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/427926-a-moze-to-glapinski-ma-racje-skad-ta-presja-na-walute-euro

-- ŁUKASZ ROGOJSZ WRITES ON GAZETA.PL THAT KAMIŃSKI AND STEFANIAK ARE BEHIND KOSINIAK'S IMAGE SUCCESS: “He was a transparent politician; it was difficult to say anything specific about him, to remember him for anything. However, when he became the leader of the Peasant Party in November 2015, it was evident how he was working on himself (or: how others were working on him). He made progress month by month. He became more media-savvy, moved more effectively on social media, spoke better, and increasingly managed to impose his narrative. Out of the blue, in media and political circles, people started saying that Kosiniak-Kamysz had become a distinct politician. And given the competition in the opposition – even very distinct. And very popular. If we are to believe the backstage rumors and speculation, two people are primarily behind this metamorphosis: Michał Kamiński (MP of the PSL-UED club) and Jakub Stefaniak (PSL press spokesperson, former journalist). Well, congratulations to them on the work done.” http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24326195,nie-schetyna-i-nie-biedron-dlaczego-polacy-chca-premiera-kosiniaka-kamysza.html

-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI BELIEVES THE PRIME MINISTER CAME UP WITH THE IDEA OF APPOINTING ANDRUSZKIEWICZ - as he writes in RZ: “And hence, likely, the Prime Minister's idea – because our sources in PiS claim he thought of it – to bring Adam Andruszkiewicz, former head of Młodzież Wszechpolska, into the government as Secretary of State in the Ministry of Digitization. The strategic intention is to show national circles that PiS can offer them more than Kukiz (it was thanks to the musician's list that Andruszkiewicz, as well as the leader of Ruch Narodowy, Robert Winnicki, entered the Sejm). And to send them a signal: come to us. That's the theory.” But in practice, it's an extremely risky move.

-- ANDRUSZKIEWICZ'S VIEWS ARE LEGITIMIZED BY THE PRIME MINISTER - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “First of all, it's one thing for the nationalist Andruszkiewicz to deliver his eurosceptic tirades on public television as a member of Kornel Morawiecki's small party, and another for Andruszkiewicz to cheer on Alexander Lukashenko as an ordinary MP, and yet another as a member of the government. His ministerial promotion means his views are legitimized by the prime minister.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/190109895-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Morawiecki-uderza-we-wlasna-wiarygodnosc.html&template=restricted

-- ANDRUSZKIEWICZ'S APPOINTMENT IS AN ATTEMPT TO MARGINALIZE NATIONALISTS, NOT SUPPORT THEM - RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK IN CONVERSATION WITH WIADOMO.CO: “It seems to me that we should interpret the appointment of MP Adam Andruszkiewicz in the exact opposite way. Not as support for national circles, but as an attempt to pacify them. PiS has aimed from the beginning not to have competition to its right. This was reinforced by the experience of competing for voters with LPR, a few years later with Solidarna Polska, which prevented PiS from winning the previous European Parliament elections, and in between, the Kukiz '15 movement occurred. Currently, PiS is very clearly trying to divide the various factions of national circles internally and capture activists to prevent the emergence of a cohesive alternative. The fact that we are even discussing a young man and a moderately significant position is telling…”

-- SURPRISING FAITH IN THE MYTH OF NATIONALISTS - CHWEDORUK CONTINUES: “I don't know if the ruling party has noticed that another generation of Poles, more liberal than MP Andruszkiewicz's generation, is entering voting age. That was a generation of economic crisis in Europe and the delegitimization of the PO government, while the new generation is raised in realities such as low unemployment. I am also surprised by the politicians' faith in Ruch Narodowy, which should essentially be considered a never-realized myth, as shown by the results of successive elections. There are also no serious premises that could cause an explosion of support for this movement. PiS is therefore demonstrating far-reaching foresight.”

-- KACZYŃSKI REPLACED THE PRIME MINISTER TOO EARLY - CHWEDORUK CONTINUES ON WIADOMO.CO: “Jarosław Kaczyński replaced the prime minister too early, because now would be the ideal moment. PiS needs to become a boring party in the coming months – a party of stabilization, order, and predictability.”

-- CHANGES IN THE EU MAY BE BENEFICIAL FOR PIS - CHWEDORUK CONTINUES: “It would also be difficult to clearly explain to voters the sense of accelerating the elections by just a few months. Finally, the European Parliament elections will also bring changes on a continental scale, some of which may prove beneficial for the Polish government.” https://wiadomo.co/prof-rafal-chwedoruk-zachowac-pragmatyzm-nie-romantyzm/

-- ADAM ABSURD ANDRUSZKIEWICZ - GALOPUJĄCY MAJOR IN CRITICISM: “The 'Twitter prince without a land' gathers his likes mainly from supporters of good change, so his transfer is not any 'added value,' but merely moving water from one vessel to another.”

-- ANDRUSZKIEWICZ IS SUITABLE FOR THE OPPOSITION TO TALK ABOUT POLEXIT - MAJOR CONTINUES: “All of this leads to the question: why exactly did Morawiecki decide on such a move? Only to weaken the right wing and take away more players from the competition, or to build a PiS-affiliated extremist outpost? This is a suicidal strategy, because over time, ten more deputy minister positions will have to be given out… Or perhaps to fulfill Father Kornel's request and take another Russophile boy under their wing? I don't know. I know that something has stalled in PiS's interpretation of reality, and the opposition has once again received a gift and can now loudly talk about Polexit without much difficulty, for which Andruszkiewicz, with his national colleagues, is a perfect symbol.” http://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/galopujacy-major/adam-absurd-andruszkiewicz/

-- PIS WILL START WITH TAXES - Fakt in its predictions for 2019:“The beginning of the year is expected to be a strong move by PiS – it concerns the presentation of a program designed to ensure the continuation of Jarosław Kaczyński's party in power. Taxes for those earning below the average wage will certainly be lowered. There are also plans for increases for academic staff, among other things. This will naturally be accompanied by conflict resolution, but the first hours of the new year have already shown that this will be very difficult to achieve…”

-- BIEDROŃ STARTS HIS CAMPAIGN - one of Fakt's predictions. https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/co-nas-czeka-w-polityce-w-2019r-zobacz/gbt0pvg

-- THE PRIME MINISTER BLOCKS THE PROJECT, LET HIM DISMISS THE MINISTER - Fakt: https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/premier-zablokowal-kontrowersyjny-projekt/drdsbm0

-- THE PRIME MINISTER IS NOT IN CONTROL - RENATA GROCHAL: "Even if Morawiecki didn't know that the ministry was preparing a political bomb, it's even worse for him. The impression arises that he is not in control of what is happening in his government. And this does not build the image of either an efficient prime minister, let alone a foresighted politician who can lead his own camp.” https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/morawiecki-wie-ze-awantura-z-kobietami-moglaby-pis-zaszkodzic/lwldhp2

-- ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA ON DEMOCRATIC CENTRALISM IN PIS USING THE EXAMPLE OF THE VIOLENCE PROJECT: “Ministries and factions within PiS live their own lives. Unexpected appointments, unagreed-upon projects – this is a visible sign of the collapse of democratic centralism, which has so far prevailed in Jarosław Kaczyński's party and the entire United Right coalition subordinate to it. An internal investigation in the Chancellery of the Prime Minister will likely establish who is responsible for releasing the draft changes to the law on domestic violence for internal and external consultations, a document that is scandalous both in its substantive content and due to its failure to meet formal requirements, i.e., its legal quality.”

-- PERHAPS THE OPINION OF THE PIS CHAIRMAN ALSO HAD AN INFLUENCE - DĄBROWSKA CONTINUES: “After the storm that erupted in the media, Prime Minister Morawiecki withdrew the absurd draft. Perhaps the opinion of the PiS chairman himself also influenced this, as he is particularly sensitive to the issue of domestic violence, although the essence of the fight for women's rights is rather alien to him.” https://www.rp.pl/Kraj/301029910-Paniczny-odwrot-PiS-i-premiera-w-sprawie-przemocy-domowej.html&template=restricted

-- ON THE PLASTICS TEAM ESTABLISHED BY PO MPS AND MP POMASKIE'S ATTACK ON RETAIL CHAINS FOR PACKAGING IN HARMFUL FILM - as Wiktor Ferfecki writes in RZ: “In October, she attacked two major grocery chains: Lidl and Biedronka. She published photos of fruits and vegetables packaged in plastic on Twitter. 'Do you know that the polymers from which this film is made penetrate food and you are probably poisoning your customers?' she asked.” https://www.rp.pl/Kraj/301029914-Platforma-Obywatelska--wojuje-z-plastikiem.html&template=restricted

-- POLES CAN AFFORD LESS AND LESS ELECTRICITY - Fakt: “In most EU countries, a kilowatt-hour of electricity for households is more expensive than in Poland. However, when these figures are converted to purchasing power in Poland, there is no room for doubt: only… Romanians and Greeks have it worse than us!” https://www.fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/polakow-stac-na-coraz-mniej-pradu/3zkyyk2

-- THE EPSILON COMPONENT CANNOT BE PREDICTED BUT WE KNOW IT WILL WORK AND AFFECT THE ELECTION RESULTS - WITOLD GADOMSKI IN GW (yesterday's issue): “In econometric equations used for forecasting, there is usually a random component, which we denote by the Greek letter epsilon. This is something we cannot predict, which disrupts the trend. It was difficult to predict that an organized group would eavesdrop on the conversations of PO politicians and that the recordings would leak to the media, thus lowering the party's ratings. It was also impossible to guess that the eavesdropped conversation between the head of KNF and a big banker would be leaked. We cannot predict the epsilon component, but we know that it always occurs. Therefore, we can be sure that it will work and influence the election results.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24324548,prognozy-noworoczne-ktore-wybory-najpierw.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Iwona Śledzińska-Katarasińska, Arleta Zalewska, Miron Sycz, Wincenty Elsner, Alicja Pacewicz, Ewa Czeszejko-Sochacka, Paweł Wojciechowski.


Łukasz Mężyk