state of play: 01/02/2019

POLITICAL SCENE: Stankiewicz: After the Attack on Nowoczesna, No One Trusts Schetyna; RZ: Kosiniak-Kamysz Strongest Premier Candidate After PiS; Gadomski: PiS's European Turn Will Come at a Cost to the Right

Łukasz Mężyk

-- PRIME MINISTER HALTS ORDO IURIS PROJECT, SASIN RULES OUT EARLY ELECTIONS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2019/01/02

-- MACIEREWICZ'S FIVE STRONG QUOTES: Macierewicz: An alliance with Germany will not achieve an anti-Russian effect. It must lead to Poland being pushed into Russia's sphere of influence, and at best – to Poland becoming a kind of Russian-German condominium [5 QUOTES] https://300polityka.pl/news/2019/01/01/macierewicz-sojusz-z-niemcami-nie-da-antyrosyjskiego-efektu-musi-doprowadzic-do-wepchniecia-polski-do-rosyjskiej-strefy-wplywow-a-w-najlepszym-razie-do-uczynienia-z-polski-swoistego-kondominium-r/

-- 6 POLITICAL PROJECTS STALLED IN PARLIAMENT: https://300polityka.pl/news/2019/01/01/6-politycznych-projektow-ktore-utknely-w-sejmie/

-- FLOCKING TO PiS, FLEEING FROM PSL - JEDYNKA (Front Page) OF DZIENNIK WSCHODNI.

-- NO SINGLE ANTI-PiS LIST FOR EUROPEAN ELECTIONS - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON ONET: “There will be no single anti-PiS opposition list in the European Parliament elections – according to Onet’s findings. However, such a list might emerge for the parliamentary elections in the autumn. Everything will depend on the results of the European elections. If the opposition, running in several blocs, achieves a poor result, it will be more inclined to unite before the Sejm elections.”

-- STANKIEWICZ DESCRIBES SCHETYNA'S CONVERSATION WITH LUBNAUER: “He leans towards Lubnauer. — Kasia, either you join us, or from autumn you'll be teaching students again — he says, referring to the academic profession of the leader of Nowoczesna. - I have no problem with that. I like teaching students — Lubnauer replies. - Then get used to the thought that you'll be returning to them — Schetyna pats her patronizingly on the shoulder, looking her coldly in the eye.”

-- THE END OF THE COALITION - LUBNAUER TELLS STANKIEWICZ: “Moreover, immediately after the elections, Schetyna attacked Nowoczesna, thereby destroying the future of Civic Coalition. — What happened signifies the end of Civic Coalition — Katarzyna Lubnauer tells Onet.”

-- SCHETYNA CAUSED DISTRUST TOWARDS HIMSELF - STANKIEWICZ CONTINUES: “Not only did Schetyna fail to sink Nowoczesna, but he also generated animosity towards PO among the smaller parties of the anti-PiS opposition. Today, this is the main determinant for coalition preparations on the opposition's side in the just-begun, unique, double election year. To put it plainly – after the attack on Nowoczesna, no one trusts Schetyna.”

-- STANKIEWICZ ON BIEDROŃ AND HIS MODERATE PROGRAM AFTER ALL: “In early February, he will announce his program, which is almost ready. As Onet learns – it will not be as radically left-wing in worldview as expected. For example, despite Biedroń's sharp anti-clerical statements – such as in his recent interview for the left-wing 'Przegląd' – his party is to declare in favor of keeping religion in schools. Also, the economic experts working with Biedroń are closer to social liberals, not socialists. — The Platform knows that we are primarily taking votes from them, hence the increased attacks on us — believes a close associate of Biedroń. — Robert responds to these attacks, but moderately. We don't want to burn bridges. If our result in the European elections is weak, it's possible we'll sit down with Schetyna to discuss a joint run for the Sejm in the autumn.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/andrzej-stankiewicz-po-ataku-na-nowoczesna-nikt-schetynie-nie-ufa/9s2vxym

-- ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA ON BIEDROŃ'S GREAT DETERMINATION TO RUN INDEPENDENTLY - WRITES IN RZ: “In this whole puzzle – not by chance – the figure of Robert Biedroń does not appear. According to other organizations, it is already clear that Biedroń does not want to negotiate; he is focusing on testing his own new brand, and the European Parliament elections are perfectly suited for this. The talks that have taken place so far were conducted rather pro forma by his people. This does not preclude later negotiations, but for now, Biedroń's determination to run alone, under his own banner, seems immense.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/190109958-Listy-lewicy-zaleza-od-decyzji-PSL.html&template=restricted

-- ŁUKASZ WARZECHA ON KACZYŃSKI NOT GETTING A THIRD CHANCE - WRITES ON WP: “In a scenario unfavorable to the ruling party, within a year and a half from now, PiS, from an absolutely dominant force on the political scene, could once again become the opposition, and an extremely suppressed one at that, using the very instruments it created. Jarosław Kaczyński will not get a third chance, and he knows this well – therefore, he will try very hard to prevent this scenario from materializing.” https://opinie.wp.pl/lukasz-warzecha-kaczynski-trzeciej-szansy-nie-dostanie-to-jeden-z-niewielu-pewnikow-6333488951015553a

-- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI PRAISES THE PRESIDENT'S NEW SPOKESPERSON: “Finally, let's look at media policy, a source of significant stress during the first two years of the presidency. Here, the turn of events is most surprising. Many assessed Błażej Spychalski's appointment as spokesperson as proof of the president's weakness. They wrote that he had to reach for people unknown on the Warsaw political scene. However, it turned out to be a good move. Andrzej Duda finally has someone at the head of his media team who plays solely for him, has no ambition to achieve anything for himself, and is not entangled in environmental wars and sympathies. He also clearly knows how to plan well.”

-- KARNOWSKI ON DUDA'S SUCCESSFUL RESTART: “Does all this mean we can exclaim, 'Poles, nothing has happened'? Of course not. There is no shortage of problems, weaknesses, and disappointments. Andrzej Duda is a different politician today than he was in 2015; right-wing politicians see him differently, and several friendships have disintegrated. There is less infatuation now, more maturity. However, this is of secondary importance compared to the fact that the president's relationship with voters is strong, stable, and bodes well for the 2020 elections. Polls or observations from direct meetings confirm this. But they are not the most important thing; it's the feeling that the Presidential Palace's mechanism is working efficiently. In my opinion, if nothing goes wrong, Andrzej Duda can absolutely beat any (currently predictable) candidate.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/427610-dobry-rok-prezydenta-dudy-udany-powrot-do-stylu-roku-2015

-- KOSINIAK-KAMYSZ STRONGEST OPPOSITION PREMIER CANDIDATE - ACCORDING TO RZ SURVEY: “In a survey conducted on December 19, 2018, we asked respondents to identify the best premier candidate from among current opposition politicians, in the event that PiS loses power in the autumn of 2019. 26% of respondents indicated the leader of PSL, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. 16% named Robert Biedroń and the same percentage Paweł Kukiz. 10% chose Grzegorz Schetyna, 4% Katarzyna Lubnauer, and 3% Włodzimierz Czarzasty, the chairman of the SLD. Every fourth respondent had no opinion on the matter.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/190109957-Sondaz-Kosiniak-Kamysz-liderem-opozycji.html&template=restricted

-- EURO WILL ACCELERATE POLAND'S DEVELOPMENT - RZ FRONT PAGE (Chrabota and Kowalczyk): “It doesn't take much political imagination to connect our country's strong role in the EU with participation in the euro zone, and conversely, to see that frightening people with the common currency leads to the path of polexit.” https://www.rp.pl/Opinie/301019968-Euro-przyspieszy-rozwoj-Polski.html

-- MAN WITH VASELINE - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW ON ANDRUSZKIEWICZ: “Some nationalists believe that he sold out the ideas of the national movement for his career. Robert Winnicki stated after Andruszkiewicz's appointment to the government that 'his career is built on vaseline.' http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24324523,czlowiek-z-wazeliny-sylwetka-adama-andruszkiewicza.html

-- PiS WILL FLIRT WITH NATIONALISTS - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “The appointment of Adam Andruszkiewicz, a former 'wszechpolak' from Białystok, to the position of Secretary of State in the Ministry of Digital Affairs is a sign of what we can expect from the ruling party in the coming year. This bizarre decision indicates that before the European Parliament elections, PiS will try to entice nationalistic and fascist circles. It will also try to convince former and current members of the Kukiz'15 movement that their future lies solely with Law and Justice.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24324519,prognozy-noworoczne-dobra-zmiana-bedzie-kokietowac-nacjonalistow.html

-- FAKT ON MOSBACHER'S INTERVENTION REGARDING THE LIST OF REIMBURSED MEDICINES - as written by Radosław Gruca: “We already know that the new American ambassador, Georgette Mosbacher, is actively fighting for the interests of American companies in Poland. However, the PiS government tried to show that it was firmly defending itself against these attempts. But this is not the case. We have proof in the latest list of reimbursed medicines, the publication of which was preceded by Mosbacher's intervention.” https://www.onet.pl/?utm_source=www.fakt.pl_viasg_fakt&utm_medium=referal&utm_campaign=leo_automatic&srcc=ucs&pid=872c89b8-7c5f-5a1e-ac30-16400a1317b0&sid=f13b499b-dba8-44e4-a9ae-cb9ebb087cc8&utm_v=2

-- WITOLD GADOMSKI ON PiS EXPOSING ITSELF ON THE RIGHT - WRITES IN GW: “The more PiS shifts towards the center and declares pro-European values, the more it will expose itself on the right. It will likely lose the European Parliament elections and, moreover, become the midwife of a strong nationalistic movement. For three years, PiS politicians treated the EU as an enemy, flexed their muscles, only to capitulate in the end? Such a maneuver will not be without losses.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24324548,prognozy-noworoczne-ktore-wybory-najpierw.html

-- PiS HAS TROUBLE WITH HISTORY, SO IT WRITES IT ANEW - KATARZYNA KOLENDA-ZALESKA in GW: “It is truly remarkable how the joint and joyful celebrations of the start of the Round Table talks are to look, a symbol so hated as a conspiracy and betrayal that it has disappeared from the sight of visitors to the Presidential Palace. How does the government intend to honor Lech Wałęsa, who led the entire opposition team? And how does the government intend to conceal, joyfully of course, that Lech Kaczyński also participated in these supposedly secret agreements in Magdalenka, which the national propaganda media carefully hide when showing archival photos from time to time. Strangely, when the camera pans to Lech Kaczyński, the image disappears, but Wałęsa and Adam Michnik, with glasses in hand, always appear.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24324492,pis-ma-klopot-z-historia-wiec-pisze-ja-na-nowo.html

-- PABLOPAVO IN CONVERSATION WITH ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI IN KULTURA LIBERALNA ON THE PROBLEM WITH MARTYROLOGY: “I have nothing against patriotic tradition and celebrating national holidays. It builds identity. My problem is that it covers up everything else. This large canvas of martyrdom and patriotism has covered this country, and one needs to cut holes in it to look into the future. Pointless! Let the flag wave in its place, and let us open up.”

-- WHAT AM I TO THINK ABOUT A PRESIDENT WHO SAYS THERE IS NO GLOBAL WARMING? - PABLOPAVO CONTINUES: “Rather to New Zealand and do something else while I still have functional hands. It's about me, it won't significantly lengthen or shorten my life. But am I to accept that for the next ten or twenty years my child will be poisoned every day?! All these PiS higher-ups who want to build a new power plant in Ostrołęka, which will poison us, produce the most expensive electricity in the world, and it will give us nothing, damn it. I absolutely don't understand how this rationalization happens in these people's minds. It's simply Satan walking among us… I understand there's money involved, but this is either extreme evil or extreme stupidity. Our president, who says that there is essentially no global warming. What can I think about him? That he's a fool. That's a rather sad conclusion.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/01/01/pablopavo-wywiad-polska-polityka-prl-pawlowski/

-- RAPPER ŁONA IN CONVERSATION WITH JAKUB BODZIONY IN KL: “Mostly nationalists, but that's a long-standing passion. This year, I would definitely add the 'good change' appetite for systemic changes – we are following a path almost copied from Hungary. Ten years ago, I was in Budapest. Even then, it looked dangerous, but not hopeless. And today, Hungarians are in a place from which it will be difficult for them to turn back. We have greater social resistance here than in Hungary. Naturally, the recent protests against the slave-like labor law reform are a cause for optimism, but previously Orbán did essentially what he wanted. In Poland, it's different – this tendency for resistance is visible all the time, for example, with protests regarding the judiciary, and soon probably regarding free media. This is a Polish specificity, growing somewhat from the 'culture of subservience' that Jarosław Kuisz wrote about, although I have a problem with that term.”

-- ŁONA BITTERLY ON SCHETYNA: “But it's f***ing bad towards the voters. I cannot deny Biedroń political skills – he has the same as Donald Tusk and Aleksander Kwaśniewski. The ability to speak to people in a way they like – a charming appearance. Kaczyński sometimes has this when he dons the robes and smile of a benevolent grandfather before elections. But Grzegorz Schetyna doesn't have an ounce of it.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2019/01/01/lona-panstwo-polityka-wywiad-bodziony/

-- GALLOPING MAJOR IN A LAPIDARY SUMMARY OF 2018 - ON NOWACKA - writes in Krytyka Polityczna: “Miss of the year – Barbara Nowacka joining the liberal opposition which rejected her 'Let's Save Women' bill at the first reading. -- ON PiS'S FAILURE IN SMALL TOWNS: “Failure of the year – PiS's result in small and medium-sized towns. Because people are not sheep, after all, and it's not enough to bring a parliamentary deputy's wife in a briefcase to Nowy Sącz.” -- THE YEAR ACCORDING TO MAJOR: “February – four destroyed government limousines. The president on skis for the eighth week. Energy prices decreased precisely because they increased. December – the traditional time for summaries, the eighteenth amendment to the Supreme Court law, the left is still discussing unification and is the first to announce five left-wing presidential candidates.” http://krytykapolityczna.pl/felietony/galopujacy-major/mebel-wakacje-liczba-i-inne-najwazniejsze-sprawy-2018-roku/

-- BIRTHDAYS: Piotr Łukasz Juliusz Andrzejewski, Janusz Pałubicki, Roman Jagieliński.


Łukasz Mężyk