state of play: 12/17/2018

STATE OF PLAY: Frasyniuk on Gasiuk as Captain Schettino, PO as a Headhunting Agency, Zaremba: PiS Has Learned to Speak Attractively, Wielowieyska: Kaczyński Might Pull This Off, Sutowski: PiS Learns from Mistakes

Łukasz Mężyk

-- JAROSŁAW KACZYŃSKI RECALLS JOLANTA SZCZYPIŃSKA IN CONVERSATION WITH RADIO KOSZALIN - SHE WASN'T ONE OF THOSE "LOOK AT ME" TYPEShttp://www.prk24.pl/40444013/jaroslaw-kaczynski-gosc-porannego-studia-baltyk-mimo-choroby-jola-byla-pelna-radosci-wyjatkowo-dobra-osoba

-- JADWIGA EMILEWICZ ON THE EUROPEAN CHARACTER OF THE RIGHT, SIEMONIAK ON REVENGE AGAINST TRZASKOWSKI: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/12/17/

-- SE ON THE FRONT PAGE ABOUT THE PRESIDENT SENDING PAWŁOWICZ INTO RETIREMENT.

-- PIS WINS QUITE STABLY, BIEDROŃ GROWS, KO HOLDS STEADY - IPSOS SURVEY FOR OKO PRESS: “According to an IPSOS poll for OKO.press completed on Friday, December 14, 2018, PiS wins the European elections (37%), not losing support upon Tadeusz Rydzyk's entry into the game, but its support drops to the level of June 2017. Civic Coalition – despite perturbations between PO and .N – holds steady at 26%. A third force is slowly emerging, and it is no longer Kukiz’15 (6%), which toned down its poll performance in mid-2018, but Robert Biedroń's still unnamed party. In the August IPSOS poll, it had 5%, now it has 8%.”

-- AMONG THE YOUNGEST, KUKIZ AND KORWIN HAVE 27%: “The poll also indicates the susceptibility of the youngest voters to right-wing radicalism: Kukiz’15 and Korwin-Mikke's brown coalition with the National Movement have a combined 27% support. Among young men, this figure exceeds 40%.”

-- PIS 46% IN RURAL AREAS: “Under pressure from the KNF scandal and from European institutions, PiS is attempting to soften its message and declares its intention to be a party of the middle class. However, our poll shows that the strength of PiS is determined by the 'working class'. In rural areas, support for Kaczyński reaches 46% (in cities above 100,000 and 500,000, it drops below 30%), and among people with a per capita income below 1500 PLN, it is exactly 50% (among the wealthiest groups, it is half as much).”

-- THE INTELLECTUAL PROFILE OF BIEDROŃ'S PARTY - ACCORDING TO IPSOS FOR OKO.PRESS: “Biedroń's movement has an even more distinctly 'intellectual' profile than the Civic Coalition – support grows 'steeply' with education: it is almost five times greater among the most educated compared to those with primary/junior high school education.” https://oko.press/pis-wygrywa-choc-traci-rydzyk-niewazny-biedron-rosnie-mlodzi-brunatnieja-sondaz-oko-press/

-- KOSINIAK AND BIEDROŃ ARE THE BEST-RATED OPPOSITION POLITICIANS - IN A POLL FOR RZ, DESCRIBED BY ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA: “Respondents rated six opposition party leaders. Only the PSL president and Robert Biedroń – the potential leader of a party not yet in existence – have a lead in positive over negative votes. Grzegorz Schetyna (23% positive to 58% negative) and Włodzimierz Czarzasty (around 20% negative opinion lead) achieved the worst results measured by the ratio of positive to negative assessments.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/181219433-Sondaz-Opozycja-czeka-na-lidera.html

-- WŁADYSŁAW FRASYNIUK TELLS JACEK HARŁUKOWICZ IN GW THAT GASIUK-PIHOWICZ BEHAVED LIKE CAPTAIN SCHETTINO: “Here, switching parties is treated like moving from one carriage to another, and without even paying for a seat. That's why I have a grievance with Kamila Gasiuk-Pihowicz, the parliamentary club leader and head of Nowoczesna in Mazovia. She behaved like Captain Schettino, who abandoned his crew and fled a sinking ship. This is, of course, not the first such case, but there have been so many recently that it's time to say bluntly that all those who opportunistically change clubs and parties during their term are not worthy of our public mandate. I even understand on a human level that politicians also need to make a living, they have loans, children, like all of us. But politics is not a free labor market, and Grzegorz Schetyna is not the head of a headhunting agency.”

-- FRASYNIUK ON PO BEING A HEADHUNTING AGENCY: “While I believe that the anti-PiS formula alone is not enough to convince large numbers of voters, and I would gladly hear what program Grzegorz Schetyna would push in such a coalition, it is now irrelevant again. Because the Civic Coalition no longer exists, there is PO with its headhunter leader and other entities facing new challenges.”

-- PIS AND SCHETYNA REPRESENT A SIMILAR WAY OF THINKING, I CANNOT IMAGINE SCHETYNA BEING THE FACE OF THE ENTIRE OPPOSITION - FRASYNIUK CONTINUES: “I wouldn't put them side-by-side, because it was Kaczyński who attacked the Polish constitution, but from the perspective of political pragmatism and viewing politics as a springboard to power and money, rather than the realization of values and goals, PiS and Schetyna represent a similar way of thinking. It seems that values and principles only hinder them, that for them, effectiveness means power. In the recent situation with Nowoczesna, Schetyna clearly acted on a predator's instinct, unable to resist eating the weaker one. In a situation where everyone knows that solely being anti-PiS will not be enough to defeat Kaczyński in a year, that we need unity, shared values, trust, and keeping promises, the leader of PO shows that he cannot play as a team. Just recently, I was certain that in 12 months PiS would be gone, today I am no longer convinced. Currently, I cannot imagine the face of the entire united opposition being the face of today's leader of PO – a man who cannot treat his partners as equals, so how will he think about us, ordinary citizens?” http://wroclaw.wyborcza.pl/wroclaw/7,35771,24275810,frasyniuk-pis-coraz-bardziej-brutalny-schetyna-niszczacy-jednosc.html

-- ALMOST EVERYTHING THAT PIS CAN BOAST ABOUT IS DUE TO MORAWIECKI - PIOTR ZAREMBA in DGP: “This is also because almost everything that PiS can truly boast about is owed to Morawiecki. It is difficult to point to another economic politician associated with this camp who, despite all the controversies surrounding economic policy, would have found the money for a more generous social policy without collapsing the budget or disrupting state finances. This is to be the main theme of the protracted campaign of praising their own achievements. It cannot be conducted without the current prime minister.”

-- PIS POLITICIANS HAVE LEARNED TO SPEAK ATTRACTIVELY - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “Another balance sheet has been chosen, a narrative of a government that achieves success after success. It must be admitted that – regardless of the bombast of the spectacle – PiS politicians have learned to speak about it attractively. Morawiecki, dry as a bone until recently, was full of jokes. Even Beata Szydło played the role of a visionary, serving the audience a story of a stable and safe country. Against the backdrop of social unrest in France or shootings in Strasbourg, it even sounded convincing.”

-- ZAREMBA RETURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SURPRISE ELECTIONS: “I would not be surprised if the core of PiS is still considering the scenario of early elections – by surprise. If not, Saturday's convention did not provide an answer to how PiS intends to win next autumn. Although it remains strong due to the weakness of others.”

-- ZAREMBA ON THE DECISION: NO CHANGES BEFORE THE ELECTIONS: “The decision: no changes before the elections, also means the petrification of the personnel structure, which is inconvenient for Morawiecki. To those who are sending Ziobro into 'exile' to the European Parliament, I will remind them: he has a strong position, not entirely dependent on the PiS leader. As the leader of Solidarna Polska, which can always get offended and move somewhere to the right. And as the dispenser of justice personnel and prosecutorial investigations.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/587418,zaremba-morawiecki-kaczynski-konwencja-pis-opinia.html

-- PIS HAS TRANSPLANTED THE HEART OF EUROPE - a headline in GW.

-- PIS FLOODS POLES WITH DREAMS OF EUROPE, HIGHER WAGES, AND A HAPPY MIDDLE CLASS - a headline in Krytyka Polityczna.

-- KACZYŃSKI MIGHT PULL THIS OFF - DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA in GW: “Government critics scoff at the hypocrisy and artificiality of PiS leaders' declarations. They say the convention was substantively empty. And they are right to predict that today the ruling camp shows a gentle face, and after the elections, it will go into battle with another revolution, despite the opposition of a large part of society. However, this does not change the fact that if the current strategy is consistently implemented, PiS has a very high chance of winning the European and parliamentary elections. And this is even despite the opposition uniting.”

-- IF PIS CALMS THE MOOD, MORAWIECKI CAN WIN - WIELOWIEYSKA CONTINUES: “People might still be kept agitated by lies on government television, as well as by revelations of irregularities at the intersection of politics and business, such as the KNF scandal and crony-family-party arrangements in public institutions. However, one must be aware of the reach of such information. If PiS manages to calm the mood, and the opposition lacks an idea on how to attract public attention, then Morawiecki may succeed.”

-- PIS ANNOUNCED POLL RESULTS AT THE CONVENTION - WIELOWIEYSKA: “PiS opponents will be outraged by the above analysis and will immediately list a long list of this party's transgressions. This list will be accurate. However, at the same time, one must answer how much it moves the mass imagination outside of large cities? What do Poles fear most and what do they appreciate most? PiS constantly conducts opinion polls on this matter, and at Saturday's convention, they announced their results again.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24283392,pis-chce-uprawiac-polityke-milosci-to-moze-kaczynskiemu-znowu.html

-- PIS, LEARNING WELL FROM ITS OWN MISTAKES, IS NOW ADOPTING A STRATEGY THAT HAS PROVEN SUCCESSFUL - MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI in Krytyka Polityczna: “One can reduce the whole thing to a colossal lie, a series of repressions, omissions, and manipulations – however, one cannot avoid the conclusion that PiS, learning well from its own mistakes, as well as successes, is now adopting a strategy that proved so successful three years ago. The phase of catering to the hard base and securing, even at the cost of image, the interests of its camp, is now giving way to the phase of winning over the broad center and seeking new voter groups. And there's something for everyone here. Because when Beata Szydło said that among the four freedoms, the pillars of Europe, there is 'freedom of speech' and 'freedom from fear,' a reader of 'Do rzeczy' understood the allusion to that vile left-wing political correctness and the defense of civilization against hordes of – you know who – while a reader of 'Gość Niedzielny' was internally reassured by hearing about 'freedom to send children to religious education.' It's ostensibly nothing new, but when the former prime minister added a passage about 'freedom from poverty,' even Rafał Woś probably got a tear in his eye, and many a former SLD voter and contemporary of the Razem party nodded understandingly.”

-- SUTOWSKI ON KACZYŃSKI'S DECLARATION OF A DREAM PARTY - WITHOUT A COMPETING DREAM: “One can mock Kaczyński's declaration that PiS will be the party of Poles' dreams and continue to recall 'treacherous murders (without any procedure)' and unfinished apartment blocks from 'Mieszkanie+'. One can estimate the vote-to-seat conversion rates using the d'Hondt method for one, two, or more opposition parties. But the experience of 2015 (and conversely, 2007) shows one thing for sure: without a competing dream, without an alternative narrative of a good life that credibly responds to Poles' aspirations – those who at least pretend to have it will win.” http://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/sutowski-konwencja-pis-europa-klasa-srednia/

-- JAKUB MAJMUREK ON THE IMPRESSION OF A COHESIVE TEAM - writes in Newsweek: “It must be admitted that at the convention, Morawiecki's government gave the impression of a cohesive team, playing together towards the same goal. Media familiar with PiS's internal affairs have long reported very sharp conflicts dividing the prime minister from Szydło or Ziobro. On Saturday, these disputes were successfully hidden – as if the feuding factions had at least for a moment buried the hatchet and recognized the prime minister's leadership.”

-- THE OPPOSITION ALSO NEEDS DREAMS - MAJMUREK: “The opposition should, of course, challenge the credibility of PiS's European-technocratic turn. Remind of the pools of conflict, irrationality, and incompetence within the ruling camp. However, this may not be enough to win. President Kaczyński said on Saturday that PiS should become the 'party of Poles' dreams.' One can mock this, but democratic politics needs dreams. We already know PiS's dream for Poland. It's high time that the Civic Coalition, Biedroń, and the rest of the left present theirs.” https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/czy-polacy-uwierza-w-druga-polske-morawieckiego/pf46ypg

-- AGATA KONDZIŃSKA ON THE BACKSTAGE OF THE "HEART OF EUROPE" CHOICE - in GW: “In Szeligi near Warsaw, PiS staged a media spectacle with the leading slogan: 'Poland, the heart of Europe.' The slogan was not accidental either. Jarosław Kaczyński believes that Poles fear the specter of Polexit the most. And that the opposition's effective narrative about PiS leading Poland out of the European Union was one of the reasons for a lower than expected result in the local elections in PiS. On Saturday, PiS tried to dispel this.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24281472,konwencja-pis-medialne-widowisko-z-wiodacym-haslem-polska.html

-- BOGUSŁAW CHRABOTA in RZ writes about the explosion of handouts: “Everyone is distributing the harvest, but forgetting about the sowing. Why is there so little talk about creating mechanisms for the economy? Does the Polish political class, as if under a spell from some foolish fairy, truly believe that the economic upturn will last forever? It sends shivers down one's spine. But it really starts to burn like Dejanira's shirt when one thinks that PiS has yet to present its program. A program for an election year. It's terrifying.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/181219442-Rzeki-spolecznej-wrazliwosci-plyna-przed-wyborami.html

-- BARTEK GODUSŁAWSKI AND GRZEGORZ OSIECKI in DGP about the consequences of PO's decision in the capital: “One way or another, PO's decision is an opportunity for PiS and Rafał Trzaskowski's opponents. The question is whether politically potent conclusions are possible, such as an attempt to organize a referendum to recall the mayor of Warsaw. But PiS is not at all eager to do so. – This is a strong blow to the image of Platforma. But let's be honest, if the reprivatization scandal didn't sink Platforma, then I don't know what else could. A relationship has developed between Warsaw voters and PO like that between a wife and a husband who beats her. Maybe he beats her, but she still loves him – assesses one of the more important PiS politicians.” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/polityka/artykuly/587432,bonifikaty-warszawa-trzaskowski-kaczynski-rzad.html

-- JACEK KARNOWSKI ON HOW THE WARSAW MATTER SHOWS PO'S ATTITUDE TOWARDS SOCIAL SPENDING: “If Platforma wins throughout Poland, it will not be able to maintain the 500+ program even if it wanted to. Because this formation's modus operandi is not focused on pro-social spending, but on satisfying various interest groups. After the elections, these forces will demand rewards and compensation for relatively 'lean years.' Relatively, because after all, no one went bankrupt, no one went broke. But this does not change the fundamental issue: in the optics of the Third Polish Republic, money is not meant to go to families with children or to tenants. It is needed for completely different purposes.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/425805-w-sprawie-oplat-trzaskowski-nie-mogl-zachowac-sie-inaczej

-- PLATFORMA HAS AWAKENED, SCHETYNA WANTS TO REVERSE THE DECISION ON BONUSES IN WARSAW - Magdalena Rubaj in Fakt: “As we have learned unofficially, PO authorities are furious with Trzaskowski. And a decision has been made that the matter will have to be reversed. – It was a mistake. It needs to be done again – a key PO politician tells us about the resolution on bonuses.”

-- RZ ANALYZES THAT THE VOIVODE MAY NOT PUBLISH THE WARSAW RESOLUTION: “The city council's resolution can only come into effect if it is published in the Official Journal of the Mazowieckie Voivodeship. The regulations give the voivode 30 days to assess its legality, i.e., until mid-January. This means that the resolution may appear in the Official Journal only after the New Year. And when it appears there is of colossal importance – explains Mirosław Gdesz, a Supreme Administrative Court judge. The conversion of perpetual usufruct to ownership of land under apartment buildings and single-family houses will occur on January 1, 2019, by operation of law. If, on that date, there is no new resolution in the Official Journal, the previous one, with high bonuses, will come into effect. – An unpublished city council resolution is not binding – explains Prof. Ryszard Piotrowski, a constitutionalist.” https://www.rp.pl/Nieruchomosci/312149934-Uzytkowanie-wieczyste-Wojewoda-Mazowiecki-moze-ochronic-portfele-warszawiakow.html

-- HENRYK KOWALCZYK BLAMES STRUZIK FOR THE WASTE CRISIS IN WARSAW - as stated in DGP: “I want to strongly emphasize that the annulment of these decisions was legal and there were grounds for it. Unfortunately, I cannot tolerate something that is inconsistent with the law. It is not the case that I insisted on Warsaw's case, because other cities are managing somehow. The waste management plan for the entire Mazowieckie Voivodeship, which has not been adopted for over two years, was prepared by the voivode. I will tell you that this plan has finally been agreed upon and will be adopted. This is extremely important because it blocked Warsaw, and not only, from accessing European funds for waste management. Mazowsze has so far been the only region in Poland that did not have this plan. Is it my fault that Marshal Struzik pursued actions contrary to the law? Is this how a sensible manager operates?” https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykuly/587423,henryk-kowalczyk-minister-srodowiska-cop24-wywiad.html

-- LIST OF DRUGS ON DEMAND - front page of GW - Judyta Watoła on Adamed's intervention.

-- BIRTHDAYS: Elżbieta Witek, Anna Sztark, Adam Jarubas, Jacek Cichocki, Magdalena Marek, Andrzej Zaorski.


Łukasz Mężyk