state of play: 12/05/2018

POLITICAL STATE OF PLAY: Stankiewicz on the Nowoczesna conflict, Nizinkiewicz: Opposition suffering from atrophy for three years, Szułdrzyński: PiS calming down deprives the opposition of fuel, Jaki on running for EP from Warsaw

Łukasz Mężyk

-- SPLIT IN NOWOCZESNA OVER JOINT CLUB WITH PLATFORMA - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/12/05/

-- ADAMOWICZ WANTS TO OUTPLAY THE COALITION? NO AGREEMENT - JEDYNKA DZIENNIKA BAŁTYCKIEGO: "A month has passed since Paweł Adamowicz won another presidential election in Gdańsk. Contrary to his announcements that he would do so after November 11th, he has still not announced the composition of his new cabinet. This is because negotiations with Civic Coalition are dragging on. The announcement of new deputy mayors of Gdańsk was supposed to happen in November. It is already December and... there is a problem, because the president has still not managed to reach an agreement on this matter with the Civic Coalition. The negotiations, which began at the beginning of last month, are not going according to the wishes of either side. Initially, the Civic Coalition counted on receiving two deputy mayor positions in return for Adamowicz's support in the second round." https://plus.dziennikbaltycki.pl/minal-miesiac-od-wyborow-a-prezydent-gdanska-nadal-nie-oglosil-zastepcow/ar/13716002

-- ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON NOWOCZESNA POLITICIANS ALREADY LINING UP TO COMPETE FOR GOOD POSITIONS IN PLATFORMA: "The local government coalition with PO has paradoxically sharpened internal conflicts within Nowoczesna. MPs – there are only 21 of them today – realize that the .N banner is becoming history. The party has multi-million debt and lacks structures, and its councilors are only thanks to cooperation with Platform. This is an inevitable direction – Nowoczesna will soon be absorbed by PO. That's why .N MPs are already in the starting blocks, competing for a good place in Platform. – They are so divided and hate each other so much that they have no basic trust in one another. Some suspect others of already having an agreement with us – says a member of the Platform's board."

-- STANKIEWICZ QUOTES A SAWICKI SUPPORTER SAYING RUNNING WITH PLATFORMA WILL GIVE PSL VOTERS TO PIS: "Sawicki's supporter: – Firstly, if we decide on a coalition in the European elections with the liberals, then in case of defeat, we will not be able to promote our own PSL list before the parliamentary elections. That would be our end. Secondly, a common list of everyone against PiS makes no sense. There should be two or three lists. Let PO go with Nowoczesna, we with smaller conservative parties, and then the left. Why so? Well, because my rural voter will not vote for any coalition of PSL with Nowoczesna. For the countryside, they are abortionists and leftists. In case of such a start, we could lose about 40% of PSL voters, because they will flee to PiS. So, a common coalition against PiS can paradoxically help PiS."

-- STANKIEWICZ ON LUDOWCY WANTING THEIR NAME ON THE CIVIC COALITION BANNER: "The clash between the two politicians and their supporters will occur on Saturday during the meeting of the PSL Main Council. Decisions regarding talks with Platform are to be made there. Everything indicates that Kosiniak-Kamysz will receive a gentle green light for concrete negotiations. But that doesn't mean anything yet. The Ludowcy, even those loyal to Kosiniak-Kamysz, have a long list of demands for Schetyna. – We will not run under the name Civic Coalition – one of them tells us. – And the name of the coalition must include our banner: PSL."

-- STANKIEWICZ QUOTES A NOWOCZESNA POLITICIAN ARGUING THAT THE EPP BANNER WILL OPEN THE WAY FOR BIEDROŃ: "The Ludowcy also have another idea: they propose running under the banner of the 'European People's Party'. This is the name of the Christian Democratic faction in the European Parliament, where PO and PSL have sat together for years. A member of Nowoczesna's board: – Our '.N' in the coalition's name signifies specific values. Without it, some more liberal and left-wing voters will vote for Robert Biedroń's new party." https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/platforma-nowoczesna-i-psl-wystartuja-razem-w-wyborach-klotnia-o-nazwe/1h41sk1

-- PSL FIGHTING FOR SURVIVAL - KRYSTYNA NASZKOWSKA in GW: "Ludwik Dorn sees the future of PSL in dark colors. In his opinion, 12% now means that in a year the Ludowcy will not cross the threshold for parliament and will be definitively out of the game. In his opinion, the only chance for the Party is a broad coalition with PO, Nowoczesna, and SLD. Kosiniak-Kamysz is willing to support such a coalition, but within the party leadership itself, he has a group of opponents led by Marek Sawicki, a former Minister of Agriculture. This group fears the reaction of its electorate – traditionalists, distrustful of "city dwellers in suits" and "liberals from Nowoczesna." An important Ludowiec tells me that whether to go to the Sejm together or separately will be decided by the European Parliament elections. – They are less important to us, we have little to lose here, so we can take a risk and join forces. If our voters accept it..." http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24242547,razem-czy-osobno-psl-walczy-o-zycie-i-zastanawia-sie-nad-sojuszem.html

-- THREE YEARS IN OPPOSITION, BUT LACK OF CONSTRUCTIVE PROPOSALS - JACEK NIZINKIEWICZ in RZ: "Meanwhile, the opposition has been suffering from atrophy for three years. It is unable to effectively target PiS. The last, and only, accurate shots at the government were made by Krzysztof Brejza, revealing in February how the ruling party was awarding itself disproportionate bonuses, or even second salaries. But an even bigger problem is the lack of alternative proposals for Poles from the opposition in response to the offers presented by PiS. Even for the long-announced climate summit, no one from the opposition could present a realistic plan for Poland."

-- SCHETYNA COMPLETELY INVISIBLE, PRESENTS NO VISION - CONTINUES NIZINKIEWICZ in RZ: "This is how the situation looks in every area. Grzegorz Schetyna is completely invisible as the opposition leader. He does not present a vision that would attract Poles, nor does he set the tone for public debate. The last proposal presented in September for local elections was the 'Six-pack', which quickly disappeared from the agenda topics raised by the opposition. In addition, there are inconsistent visions within the Civic Coalition regarding the 'post-PiS state.' https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/312049912-Nizinkiewicz-Trzy-lata-w-opozycji-lecz-konstruktywnych-propozycji-brak.html

-- CALMING THE SITUATION CAUSES THE OPPOSITION TO LOSE FUEL - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI in RZ: "Lowering the temperature of the dispute, calming the political situation causes the opposition to lose fuel. All the more so because so far, neither on the side of PO, Nowoczesna, nor PSL has a consistent vision of the order they want to build after possibly removing PiS from power, nor any captivating story about what will happen next." https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/312049909-Szuldrzynski-Opozycja--traci-paliwo.html&template=restricted

-- MAGDALENA RUBAJ IN FAKT ON PiS'S STRATEGY TO PUT THE "LEMMINGS" TO SLEEP: "At Saturday's convention, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki spoke of stabilization, apologized for mistakes, and invited the opposition to calm down the atmosphere and quiet down. What is this about? – Morawiecki is to be a 'dove' again – a prominent PiS politician tells us. And with him, the entire party is supposed to change. Why? To calm the mood and 'put the lemmings to sleep.' https://www.onet.pl/?utm_source=www.fakt.pl_viasg_fakt&utm_medium=referal&utm_campaign=leo_automatic&srcc=ucs&pid=370fbe2d-5362-542d-9001-6f6b4ef8f37e&sid=f13b499b-dba8-44e4-a9ae-cb9ebb087cc8&utm_v=2

-- MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI ON THE REGROUPING: "All these media disturbances stem from one more factor: the approaching regrouping in the right-wing camp. Observers rightly sense that one stage is ending, but they cannot name it. However, their intuition is correct. Three years of government (first led by Prime Minister Beata Szydło, currently by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki) and the prospect of an electoral marathon, with the highest possible stakes in politics, lead to summaries and changes. We see conscious, sometimes painful, closing of overly destructive fronts, and we can expect serious personnel shifts. Jarosław Kaczyński has shown more than once that he knows how to draw conclusions at such stages, and I think it will be similar now. Everything will be subordinated to one goal: winning the parliamentary elections." https://wpolityce.pl/m//424148-opozycja-gra-na-rozchwianie-pis-nie-warto-sie-nabierac

-- KOD COMMISSIONED RESEARCH SHOWING IT WOULD GET 3% OF VOTES, KO 33%, AND PIS 39% - Marcin Antosiewicz: "If the Committee for the Defence of Democracy ran in the elections as an independent grouping, it could count on 2.9% support. The electoral threshold for the Sejm is 5%, so the organization would not be taken into account in the distribution of mandates, but if it managed to gain 3%, it would receive funding from the budget. The Civic Coalition, composed of PO and Nowoczesna (32.9%), would lose the most from KOD's independent run, but surprisingly, PiS (39.2%) would also lose, though it would still be able to govern alone or possibly in coalition with Kukiz'15 (6.2%). SLD (5.9%) would also enter the Sejm. The Ludowcy, with 4% support, would not receive any mandates."

-- IF KOD RAN WITH PO, THE SITUATION WOULD BE EVEN: "The situation changes in favor of the opposition if KOD activists ran on a joint Civic Coalition list. Then PO, Nowoczesna, and KOD could count on 36.4% of the votes. By joining KO, other parties would lose, including, surprisingly, PiS (39.1%). SLD would receive 5.3%, and Kukiz'15 – 5.1%. PSL would improve its poor result, but with 4.4% would still remain outside the Sejm. The poll did not include Robert Biedroń's movement, whose inauguration is likely to take place on February 3rd." https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/kod-szuka-strategii-czy-wystartuje-w-wyborach-ciekawszy-jest-inny-scenariusz/

-- PATRYK JAKI ANNOUNCES HE WILL BE ACTIVE OPPOSITION IN WARSAW - as he says in an interview with Jacek Nizinkiewicz in RZ: "A quarter of a million Varsovians who voted for me will have a strong voice in Warsaw. I am preparing new projects for the capital. We will be as active an opposition as PO has never seen in Warsaw. My activity will not decrease. I will continue to advocate for the residents' issues. I am sorry that all my diagnoses are being confirmed today. I said that Rafał Trzaskowski is lying, he is unreliable, and I was right. He is withdrawing from his most important promises. Mayor Trzaskowski is withdrawing from more promises: waste, tickets, education, Skra. He is expanding the administration. At the conference, he appoints a position that requires a competition. And now, this pathetic project for Defilad Square, on the scale of a small municipality, not the capital of Poland, with a flying pig. He is withdrawing from pay raises for teachers..."

-- I AM READY TO RUN FOR THE EP FROM WARSAW - SAYS JAKI: "I am ready to run for the EP. These will be very important elections for the United Right, which will take place shortly before the parliamentary elections. I would like to help the United Right win both elections. I would like to run from Warsaw. Local government and EP elections are always very difficult for PiS. They are characterized by high turnout in cities and lower in smaller towns. Involvement in the EP elections will translate into the results of the parliamentary elections."

-- JAKI STRONGLY ON PAWŁOWICZ: "I am not a fan of these posts. Such posts do not help us." https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/312049902-Patryk-Jaki-Mam-w-sobie-wielka-zlosc.html&template=restricted

-- SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI WRITES THAT NORDSTREAM 2 WILL DEPART WITH MERKEL: "Candidates, when asked during pre-election local conferences in various parts of Germany, have begun to uniformly and directly criticize the sense of further construction of Nord Stream 2. Each has slightly different reasons, although none are from the East, like Merkel, and none have as much attention for Poland (Merkel is partly of Polish origin, her grandfather was Polish and came from Poznań, the other part of the family comes from Gdańsk). Of course, this is a campaign in which candidates try to be assertive and do not bear the same responsibility for their words as when they have to hold office. Nevertheless, Nord Stream 2 is ceasing to be an obvious choice in Germany and is becoming controversial. It will be increasingly difficult for Berlin to cooperate with Gazprom. And this is good news for Poland and even better news for Ukraine." https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/slawomir-sierakowski-wraz-z-merkel-odejdzie-nord-stream-2-analiza/n9t64v5

-- 26TH ANNIVERSARY OF POLSAT.

-- BIRTHDAYS: Wojciech Skurkiewicz, Bronisława Kowalska.


Łukasz Mężyk