state of play: 11/15/2018

POLITICAL GAME: Stankiewicz: PM will benefit from KNF scandal; rumour has it Antczak will be the new head; DGP: PSL wants three marshals; Fakt: KNF scandal was meant to hit the Prime Minister

Michał Olech

LIVEBLOG 300POLITYKI: Prime Minister Morawiecki during Polish-Czech intergovernmental consultations: Just over a decade ago, no one could have imagined such trade volumes between Poland and the Czech Republic. Lubnauer: The establishment of a parliamentary investigative committee concerning the KNF, headed by an opposition politician, is very important. Weather and Climate Committee (WKK) on the November 11th march: Seeing so many white and red flags is always impressive, though this image was marred by flags of organizations that, for example, came from Italy. WKK on support for Tusk in the presidential elections: So far, we have always put forward our own candidates. We'll see what happens after 2019. Every scenario is possible. Szefernaker: An investigative committee comes into play when the state is not functioning. Here, we have an unprecedented situation; it's a new phenomenon in political culture. The state has acted like never before. Szefernaker on reports about the situation in the Suwałki police: Minister Brudziński has ordered Minister Zieliński to urgently clarify this matter. https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/11/15/ -- THERE WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A SLOWDOWN AND THE FIRST SIGNS OF ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN. MEANWHILE, GDP DATA FOR THE THIRD QUARTER IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD - DGP. -- PSL WANTS 3 MARSHALS - Grzegorz Osiecki and Tomasz Żółciak in DGP: “Signals are emerging from Polish People's Party (PSL) politicians that they would not rule out a coalition with Law and Justice (PiS). However, this appears to be more of a negotiating tactic. The goal is to force the Civic Platform (PO) into offering the most favorable coalition terms in regional assemblies. According to our information, the PSL wants to have three marshals, including retaining the position in the Mazowieckie Voivodeship for Adam Struzik. PO would like the marshal position in Mazowieckie for themselves, justifying this by the significant decline in PSL's results, both nationwide and specifically in Mazowsze. The logic of negotiations suggests that if the PSL takes two marshal positions, PO might give up on the Mazowieckie marshal role.” -- THE AIM OF PiS'S MOVES IN MAZOWSZE IS NOT PSL COUNCILLORS, BUT PO: “Both groupings are under strong pressure from PiS. This party is also engaged in negotiations, hoping to form coalitions in individual regional assemblies. According to our information, for example, in Mazowsze, the target of PiS's efforts is not PSL councillors, but those from the Civic Coalition (KO) – i.e., PO and Nowoczesna. The PSL councillors are strongly tied to Adam Struzik, and the chance of winning them over is small. PiS hopes that by offering positions, they can sway one or two KO councillors to their side. They have reportedly already received offers for positions in state-owned companies.” https://edgp.gazetaprawna.pl/ -- THE KNF SCANDAL IS ESCALATING - GW's front page (Kublik, Czuchnowski): “It is unclear why Prime Minister Morawiecki only learned about the corruption scandal at the KNF from our Tuesday article, as lawyer Roman Giertych filed a notification regarding this matter on November 7th at 8:34 AM. The document was acknowledged by secretary Marta Przekazińska from the service office of the National Prosecutor's Office.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24169071,afera-knf-agenci-w-gabinetach-komisji-marek-chrzanowski-przestal.html -- FAKT WRITES THAT THE KNF SCANDAL WAS MEANT TO HIT THE PRIME MINISTER: “According to our findings, Ziobro assured during this meeting that he was unaware of the notification beforehand. - These explanations were accepted, although no one believed them - assures us a person familiar with the behind-the-scenes of this meeting. No one also believes that it was a coincidence that Czarnecki and Giertych filed the notification on the eve of the parliamentary Finance Committee session, which adopted the draft amendment to the Banking Law. It included a provision that in case of 'danger of a decrease in the sum of equity funds,' the KNF, by administrative decision, could decide to take over such a bank by another bank! This is the plan that was discussed by Chrzanowski and Czarnecki. And it will be Morawiecki who will have to explain it in Europe.” https://fakt.pl/wydarzenia/polityka/afera-z-knf-uderza-w-premiera-mateusza-morawieckiego/76s8yyb -- CBA AT THE KNF, WHILE CZARNECKI'S COMPANIES ARE LOSING - Rzeczpospolita's front page. -- THE PRIME MINISTER'S DOUBLE TROUBLE - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI in Rzeczpospolita: “For Law and Justice, there is perhaps no greater threat than a corruption scandal sticking to the party (...) The public accusation of a multi-million złoty corruption offer (...) is a mortal threat to PiS. That is why, a few hours after the publication in 'Gazeta Wyborcza' where such an accusation was made, Morawiecki forced the resignation of the head of the Financial Supervision Authority. But this is not the end of the matter. Whether, how, and in what style it will now be investigated depends on whether PiS manages to retain its credibility with its voters. Morawiecki now holds all the strings.” https://rp.pl/Rzad-PiS/181119668-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Afera-KNF-Trudna-proba-premiera-Morawieckiego.html -- THE PRIME MINISTER WILL BENEFIT FROM THE KNF SCANDAL - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ: “The scandal surrounding the Financial Supervision Authority is a godsend for the Prime Minister. After the explosion of the scandal involving the alliance of NBP President Adam Glapiński, Zbigniew Ziobro, and SKOK cooperatives, their decisive influence over the appointment of key financial institutions in the country will be lost. The winner will be Mateusz Morawiecki – thanks to the scandal, he will gain decisive influence over personnel decisions in finance. He has been fighting for this for months.” -- IT IS PROBABLE THAT ZIOBRO WANTS TO HAVE THE INVESTIGATION ON HIS PHONE - Stankiewicz continues: “But Ziobro is not naive. Although there is no territorial justification for it, he sent the investigation concerning Chrzanowski to Katowice – it is his most trusted prosecutor's office, partly because the current National Prosecutor, Bogdan Święczkowski, a protégé of Ziobro, comes from there. Perhaps Ziobro sent the case to Katowice because he believes in the unique talents of Silesian prosecutors. But it is more probable that he wants to have this investigation on his phone.” -- RUMOUR HAS IT THAT RAFAŁ ANTCZAK WILL BECOME THE HEAD OF KNF: “When, after many months of struggle, Morawiecki finally realizes his dream – placing his man at the head of the Financial Supervision Authority – he will not only increase his influence in financial institutions but will also be able to block further expansion of the Glapiński/Ziobro/SKOK system. It seems that this will be the most serious political consequence of this scandal – the center of decision-making regarding the staffing of financial institutions, both state-owned and private, will change. Furthermore, if – as the rumor has it – Rafał Antczak becomes the new head of KNF, Morawiecki will humiliate his opponents in the process.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/afera-knf-andrzej-stankiewicz-dla-premiera-morawieckiego-dar-od-niebios/j432wt8 -- SHATTERED TRUST IN A STATE INSTITUTION - PATRYCJA MACIEJEWICZ in GW: “Never mind the sinecures. The stability of the financial system is an egg that the whole world is trembling over after the recent financial crisis. It's not for nothing that the NBP did not give the green light for the Swiss franc bill, which would allow for the recalculation of mortgage loans at the exchange rate on the day they were taken out. It's not for nothing that European and American institutions rescued banks that ran into trouble. With the KNF operating like this, I don't feel safer.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,155290,24168561,polityka-wsrod-pieniedzy-nasze-zaufanie-do-panstwowej-kontroli.html -- SCHETYNA HAS LOST HIS STRONGHOLD IN LOWER SILESIA - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA in Rzeczpospolita: “The Civic Coalition brilliantly won in cities, especially in the second round, but this does not mean that its main leader and creator has anything to be happy about after the elections. His stronghold slipped away. Why? – Schetyna lacked sergeants – says one of the Lower Silesian politicians. – Without them, the war cannot be won, and they left PO. They are probably working for the Non-Partisan Local Government Officials now.” -- DĄBROWSKA WRITES IN Rzeczpospolita HOW SZEŁEMEJ AVOIDED A PHOTO WITH SCHETYNA: “Roman Szełemej, without exaggeration, can be said to be adored by the residents, he did not even need the support of the Civic Coalition, which he received without his own efforts. Quite the contrary. According to witnesses, during an election rally at Książ Castle, when he saw the leader of PO, he turned away and left so that no one could take a photo of them together.” https://rp.pl/Analizy/181119636-Dabrowska-Przewodniczacy-Platformy-stracil-swoj-matecznik-na-Dolnym-Slasku.html -- IF AN AGREEMENT WERE REACHED BETWEEN THE NON-PARTISANS AND PO IN BOTH THE CITY COUNCIL AND THE REGIONAL ASSEMBLY, KRZYSTEK WOULD HAVE POWER IN SZCZECIN AND INDIRECTLY IN THE REGION - writes the Szczecin edition of GW: “Bezpartyjni Szczecin, however, issued a statement that the situation in Lower Silesia does not have a bearing on what is happening in Szczecin, because the Non-Partisans have autonomy in each region. However, they left themselves an open door for talks with PiS, although a PiS-Bezpartyjni coalition does not grant them power in the region, as it amounts to only 14 councillors (11+3). If an agreement were reached between the Non-Partisans and PO in both the city council and the regional assembly, Piotr Krzystek would have power in Szczecin and indirectly in the region. Cooperation with PO in the city would likely mean a vice-presidency for PO. Cooperation in the regional assembly would mean a place for the Non-Partisans in the provincial board, most likely also the position of deputy marshal.” http://szczecin.wyborcza.pl/szczecin/7,34939,24167911,doszlo-do-spotkania-krzystka-z-geblewiczem-efekty-przed-sesja.html -- PLATFORM MOBILIZES AFTER THE ACTIONS OF SPLITTERS - Szczecin GW: “Pomorskie regional assembly councillors who switch to political rivals must be prepared for motions to the prosecutor's office and the CBA, indicating suspicion that for this unexpected change of allegiance – they or their family members – may have received positions in state-owned companies. The wavering KO councillor Sylwia Laskowska-Bobula, in connection with taking up her mandate in the regional assembly, must resign from her position as deputy mayor of Żukowo and will likely be looking for new employment.” http://trojmiasto.wyborcza.pl/trojmiasto/7,35612,24167697,po-mobilizuje-sie-po-dzialaniach-rozlamowcow-psl-odcina-sie.html -- ON THE POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE REPEATED ATTEMPT TO ABOLISH THE 30-FOLD CAP - KRZYSZTOF A. KOWALCZYK in Rzeczpospolita: “And here arises the titular question: is PiS politically suicidal? On the eve of the European (spring) and parliamentary (autumn 2019) elections, can it afford to deepen social divisions and expose itself to the anger of a significant group of 350,000 taxpayers who would be affected by an increase in the ZUS contribution?” https://rp.pl/Blogi/311149922-Czy-PiS-jest-politycznym-samobojca.html -- THE TRIBUNAL DEFENDED PATHOLOGY - writes Ewa Siedlecka on Polityka.pl: “Of course, a dissenting opinion is not binding law. However, dissenting opinions – whether of judges of the Constitutional Tribunal (TK) or the Supreme Court – just like votes, function as arguments in legal debates. And sometimes also as an element of the justification for decisions or rulings. Thus, they have legal significance. Moreover, this dissenting opinion – signed also by the acting president of the TK, Julia Przyłębska – may foreshadow a new line of TK jurisprudence, in which it will self-limit its power regarding the assessment of parliamentary actions, i.e., the control of law-making.” https://polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1771518,1,trybunal-obronil-patologie.read -- DGP ON THE FRONT PAGE ABOUT ZIOBRO'S PROJECT FOR THE INDEBTED: “Keys for debt, court-ordered currency conversion, temporary payment reductions. In short: significant relief for the worst-performing borrowers is envisioned in the latest project by the head of the Ministry of Justice. - We want to help Poles who have a mortgage and have fallen into financial difficulties - says Deputy Minister of Justice Marcin Warchoł. Appropriate solutions are provided for in the amendment to the bankruptcy law. The final touches are currently being made to the project.” https://gospodarka.dziennik.pl/finanse/artykuly/585192,klucze-za-dlug-sadowe-przewalutowanie-zbigniew-ziobro-rewolucja-kredytobiorcy.html

Michał Olech