state of play: 11/07/2018

STATE OF PLAY: wPolityce on PiS-PSL Coalition?, Szułdrzyński: Moderates Associate PiS with Embarrassment and Deception, Radziejowski: PiS Won, but Saw the Limits of its Strength

Łukasz Mężyk

-- THE SEJM ONLY MEETS ONCE A MONTH UNTIL THE ELECTIONS - CALENDAR OF PLANNED SESSIONS ON 300POLITYCE: https://300polityka.pl/news/2018/11/07/kalendarz-sejmu-na-2019-rok-od-stycznia-do-czerwca-po-jednym-posiedzeniu-w-miesiacu/

-- SZYDŁO ON RUNNING FOR EP, MARCZUK LEAVING MINISTRY OF LABOUR - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/11/07/

-- PIS WOULD HAVE 236 MANDATES - DGP (Osiecki, Żółciak): "United Right has a chance for an absolute majority in the Sejm elections, winning 236 mandates – according to a simulation. The second-place grouping, Civic Coalition, could count on 177 mandates. Kukiz’15 would also enter the Sejm with 23 mandates, and the PSL with the same number of MPs. How did PiS analysts arrive at these conclusions? They recalculated the votes cast for individual groupings in regional assemblies for the 41 electoral districts for the Sejm. However, they assumed that votes cast for the Non-Party Local Government Officials would be insignificant, thus evenly distributed among the remaining groupings. It was also assumed that the PSL would achieve a result half as strong as in the regional assembly elections. This pattern can be observed in election results, and this relation is sometimes even lower than 50 percent." https://www.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/1336977,powyborcza-analiza-pis.html

-- WPOLITYCE ON PIS-PSL COALITION: “As wPolityce.pl has learned, talks are underway between politicians from Law and Justice and the Polish People's Party regarding coalitions in regional assemblies. These discussions are not limited to individual 'transfers' but concern a broader agreement. - We are talking at a much higher level than just with councillors who have won mandates in regional assemblies. There is a chance to form coalitions in several voivodeships. If this scenario were to be realized, Civic Coalition would govern in only one regional assembly, we heard from a politician from the ruling party's top leadership.” https://wpolityce.pl/polityka/420004-tylko-u-nas-czy-bedzie-wielka-koalicja-pis-psl

-- 3 YEARS AGO, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz became the leader of the PSL.

-- BREAK UP WITH PLASTIC - POMASKI CONTINUES HER CAMPAIGN, STARTED WITH AN ARTICLE ON 300POLITYCE: http://www.pomaska.pl/zerwijzplastikiem?fbclid=IwAR3Pna-o7FYlilUGecHhv83r1d_3TNXXZQmCh9pkCvNGdEDYyx9Uqr7lPvI

-- Agnieszka Pomaska for 300POLITYKI: On a Plastic Detox. After this article, you will examine every package closely: https://300polityka.pl/stan-gry/2018/08/28/agnieszka-pomaska-dla-300polityki-na-odwyku-od-plastiku-po-tym-tekscie-obejrzysz-dokladnie-kazde-opakowanie/

-- WE WANT TO END THE DISPUTE OVER JUDICIAL REFORM - Jadwiga Emilewicz in conversation with Justyna Dobrosz-Oracz in GW: “We would like to put aside the discussion about the judiciary, to come to the table and engage in discussions where our voice is truly needed and necessary today in building a positive agenda for Europe.”

-- EMILEWICZ ON THE RIGHT-WING'S PROBLEMS IN CITIES: “And this is the moment that requires reflection on how to reach the inhabitants of these cities. Primarily because, if we talk about the offer and vision for Poland presented in 2015, which led us to victory then, this idea should concern all Poles. Many of these postulates have been realized and have become a fact, and we can already see their socio-economic effects. This means, above all, we are leveling the playing field for all residents of Poland, including those outside major metropolises. Today, this is important for us, because major metropolises and large cities are very important educational and industrial centers, creating new, attractive jobs. And our offer is also addressed to them, and we should probably tell this story better.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,82983,24135638,minister-emilewicz-wyniki-wyborow-pokazuja-ze-mamy-duza-szanse.html

-- SZOSSTAKOWSKI: WE WILL MOVE THE PRESIDENT'S MONUMENT - Michał Wojtczuk in Stołeczna: “No to PiS monuments in Warsaw! When the PiS regime falls, we will move the monuments from Piłsudski Square – announced Jarosław Szostakowski, leader of the Civic Coalition club in the Warsaw City Council.” http://warszawa.wyborcza.pl/warszawa/7,54420,24133124,gdy-rezim-pisowski-upadnie-przeniesiemy-pomniki-z-placu-pilsudskiego.html

-- ARTICLE 7 PATH IS DEAD FOR THE EC - Magdalena Cedro, Grzegorz Osiecki on the front page of DGP: “According to DGP information, the Austrian presidency wanted to propose further proceedings on Article 7 in the Council, but the European Commission halted Vienna's attempts. 'For the Commission, it is a dead path' – states our source from Brussels. Vice-President of the European Parliament Zdzisław Krasnodębski (PiS) is not surprised by the 'death' of Article 7. He said that it was known from the beginning that this procedure would not lead to any conclusions, as the Commission does not have a majority in the Council. In this sense, he emphasizes, it is a failure of the EC and a victory for Poland.”

-- EC WILL STRIVE FOR A RESOLUTION THAT WILL HURT - write the authors of DGP: “The temperature of the dispute over the rule of law has somewhat cooled down. However, according to our source from the Commission, this does not mean that Brussels is letting Warsaw off the hook. – It will strive for a resolution that will hurt. Otherwise, its stance will be perceived as a defeat – says our interlocutor. http://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/swiat/artykuly/584697,tsue-artykul-7-praworzadnosc-polska.html

-- REPLACING KURSKI IS TOO BIG A RISK FOR PIS - Agnieszka Kublik in GW: “As heard within PiS, Kaczyński seems – for now – to be leaning towards this latter argument. That replacing the head of TVP six months before the European elections and a year before the parliamentary elections is too big a risk for the party. In essence, the decision could even determine its existence or non-existence. Because a PiS defeat in 2019 would certainly be the end of the Kaczyński PiS era. And perhaps the end of PiS altogether.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24135557,jacek-kurski-musi-zostac.html

-- THE OPPOSITION ACTUALLY NOTED SEVERAL SUCCESSES IN CITIES, BUT THIS HAS NO BEARING ON FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “The camp of the Third Polish Republic naturally has the right to try for an emotional breakthrough and claim they won these elections. In reality, they undoubtedly noted several successes in large and medium-sized cities, although let's remember: those who were there mostly remained. Their political affiliations can be conventional, fluid. PiS lost something (Biała Podlaska, Kielce) and gained something (Wadowice, Chełm). This has no bearing on fundamental change, on the great shift made by Jarosław Kaczyński's camp. Indeed, in at least seven regional assemblies, and perhaps more, a formation that could never have dreamed of it will now govern. It will govern where the Third Polish Republic's camp has 'always' held sway. This is a large area of power, and if we add half of the districts in the entire country to it, it is truly powerful.”

-- KARNOWSKI ON CITIES BURSTING WITH OVERFEEDING: “They have no program (apart from returning to what was, apart from proposals to dismantle the state), but they are already preparing for power. Indeed – they have the media and have come to believe that they can again inject whatever they wish, any lie, into people's minds. This was enough for large cities, bursting at the seams with overeating and prosperity, but it might be too little for all of Poland. Further, one can assume, this pride will only increase. https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/419968-dopiero-sie-okaze-kto-kogo-kopnie-w-tylek-cytat-z-prof

-- PIS SHOULD NOT TAKE THE PLACE OF PLATFORM - A PARTY THAT MERELY MANAGES REALITY - JACEK KARNOWSKI: “The consequence is that PiS not only should not, but cannot, occupy the position held by Platform – a party that merely manages reality, relying on the social dominance of the so-called winners of the transformation, a party passive in the sphere of values, leaving the most important fields to the strongest global and domestic players. The social forces on which Tusk's party relied have already been rejected by PiS, and they will not change their minds – neither through new proposals or promises, nor through compliments. At least not in their essential mass. This is why PiS must be – and is – a real and distinct counter-proposal. One that mobilizes and strengthens – not only during elections – all of illiberal and non-leftist Poland. Importantly: not only in the sphere of development, economic, social, and international proposals, but also in the sphere of values.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/419973-pis-ma-szanse-tylko-wtedy-gdy-jest-wyrazna-kontrpropozycja

-- BARTŁOMIEJ RADZIEJOWSKI: PIS WON, BUT SAW THE LIMITS OF ITS STRENGTH: “The only serious surprise is the scale of PiS's defeat in cities, not just large ones. And the strength of the city-province polarization. However, the general result of the ruling party, in itself, is very good, and in some respects historic. According to imprecise, very rough calculations I made a few days ago, talking with Antoni Dudek and Grzegorz Osiecki, among others, 34% for PiS in regional assemblies would translate to about 43% in parliament. However, everything can still change within a year, of course. Generally, PiS won, but saw the limits of its strength, in a few respects. Let's hope that the opposition, in turn, has seen the limits of its fear, because lowering the level of hysteria would be very beneficial for all of us.” https://www.facebook.com/100000097310089/posts/2123863254293564/

-- YOUNG PEOPLE LOST DUE TO THE PIS LOGO, IT'S A SLIPPERY SLOPE - JANINA JANKOWSKA ON FB: “And here we have the first sign of something new. The results of the local government elections. They should worry you. Excellent, young generation candidates: Kacper Płużyński and Małgorzata Wassermann were defeated. In my opinion, because of the PiS logo. They lost to burnt-out older gentlemen, one of whom strangely amassed considerable property and didn't remember it in his declarations, and the other is truly tired. For Gdańsk and Krakow, a lost opportunity. Let's not hide it, you have found yourselves on a slippery slope leading downwards. Open your eyes. Do not broadcast untrue words in the media, dictated by the daily narrative from the arsenal of propaganda of success. The audience feels it. Rather, try to influence the Chief Demiurge, his Court, and perhaps those who feel similarly to me, but cannot yet say NO, through all possible channels. The future of Poland depends on you. I won't hide it, I fear the return of PO accompanied by Ms. Lubnauer and Petru. And I think to myself, how can I give courage to the right-wing to fix itself? How to strengthen the Together party, which should be in parliament without the SLD? For full democracy. What can a single, small person do in this matter? Just sing to the right-wing 'You had, you scoundrel, a golden horn'.” https://www.facebook.com/100000155365108/posts/2393847190630436/

-- THE SECOND ROUND UNDERMINED OUR WINGS MORE THAN THE STATISTICS SHOW - ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA IN RZ: “The second round undermined PiS's wings more than the post-election statistics show. It demonstrated that despite the party's immense belief that it is loved by the people, belief in its mission or political calling, these feelings do not resonate with many residents of cities: large, medium, and small. Moreover, immediately after the vote, PiS politicians from the front lines of the propaganda front tried to portray them as cheats, thieves, and non-Poles. However, these voices were silenced.” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/311069920-Dabrowska-Jak-byc-kochanym.html&template=restricted

-- PIS CONFUSES TRADITIONALISM WITH MERE RUDENESS - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “The problem with PiS is not that it is not conservative enough, but that it confuses traditionalism with sheer rudeness. The Minister of National Defence writing about a 'march of sodomites,' offensive posts on Twitter by Krystyna Pawłowicz or Dominik Tarczyński directed at those who do not share their views, are manifestations of what I once called 'savage conservatism' in 'Plus Minus.' I doubt this will attract conservatives to PiS. One of the characteristics of conservatism is moderation. PiS, however (repeating the mistakes of 2005-2007), is increasingly associated by moderate people with embarrassment or outright deception rather than conservatism.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/311069895-Kogo-przyciaga-zdziczaly-konserwatyzm.html&template=restricted

-- PIS MOBILIZED ITS OPPONENTS - DR JAROSŁAW FLIS: “If one were to summarize both rounds of elections, one could say that Jarosław Kaczyński's strategy of sharpening political disputes to the extreme, the conviction that a match of 'PiS versus the rest of the world' is winnable, has failed. This is how Law and Justice representatives described Polish politics, and this is how they conducted their campaign. This strategy proved fatal: if the ruling party managed to mobilize through polarization, it was mainly the mobilization of... its opponents.” https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/pis-zmobilizowalo-przeciwnikow-156133

-- RUMORS OF PIS'S DEATH ARE EXAGGERATED - MAREK MIGALSKI IN RZ: “And just as 1 is not greater than 27, so 27 is not greater than 34. Civic Coalition was defeated by Kaczyński's party, and nothing at the moment indicates that this will change in a year. Without a radical collapse of social sentiment, PiS will win in the autumn of 2019. Especially since it will not be idle and will likely take care of additional social groups.” https://www.rp.pl/Rzecz-o-polityce/181109679-Migalski-Pogloski-o-smierci-PiS-sa-przesadzone.html

-- THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR POPULISTS? - SŁAWOMIR SIERAKOWSKI IN THE NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/06/opinion/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-polands-populists.html#click=https://t.co/J2ZiaDr0pg

-- SING THE ANTHEM YOURSELVES - PIOTR BENIUSZYS FROM LIBERTE ON THE CELEBRATIONS - writes in GW: “The state handed over the centenary of Polish independence to the fascistic extremists from the political fringe. And the president suggests that millions of citizens sing the anthem themselves at noon.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24134532,jaka-polska-takie-obchody-niepodleglosci.html

-- GAWKOWSKI IS NOT SAYING GOODBYE TO POLITICS - as Iwona Szpala writes in GW: “Krzysztof Gawkowski tells 'Wyborcza' that he did not make any political pacts before leaving and has no offers on the table. But he is open to discussions. He does not want to say goodbye to politics. He is interested in the left side of the political spectrum.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24135016,wiceprzewodniczacy-sld-odchodzi-gawkowski-szukam-innego-miejsca.html

-- KRZYSZTOF ŚMISZEK IN GW ON THE PROTECTION OF LGBT MINORITIES: “From a cannon to a rainbow. A report on human rights in Poland will be presented in the European Parliament on Thursday. The recent operation by the prosecutor's office to collect data on court proceedings concerning the possibility of Polish authorities recognizing civil partnerships registered abroad has caused great concern among the LGBT community in Poland. Associations with General Kiszczak's 'Hyacinth' operation came immediately.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24135073,z-armaty-do-teczy-w-czwartek-w-parlamencie-europejskim-zostanie.html

-- TWO STATE BANKS WITH RECORD RESULTS:

-- A record quarter in the 100-year history of PKO Bank Polski. PKO Bank Polski Group generated a net profit of PLN 1.04 billion in the third quarter of 2018. This is the highest profit in the bank's 100-year history. The group's assets now exceed PLN 306 billion, and its scale of operations is more than twice as large as 10 years ago. Simultaneously, the bank is undergoing a successful digital transformation, and further projects, such as initiating the creation of the National Cloud, strengthen its position as a technological leader in the Polish sector. Such good results from the largest Polish bank fit into the country's good economic situation, which is the best gift for all Poles on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of Poland regaining independence. – says Zbigniew Jagiełło.

-- Bank Pekao: net profit in the third quarter increased by 11% year-on-year to PLN 606.5 million. This is the highest net profit for the third quarter in three years, achieved thanks to sustained solid revenue dynamics and good cost control. – Our bank is growing dynamically, becoming the financial institution of choice for an increasing number of clients. We are improving profitability and operational efficiency while maintaining a conservative approach to risk – said Michał Krupiński. - The implementation of the strategy reflected in the bank's results allows us to maintain our recommendation for a high dividend for 2018, at least in the same nominal amount as last year.

-- BIRTHDAYS: Krzysztof Kilian, Robert Kwiatkowski, Anna Gembicka, Marcin Zaborski, Anita Błochowiak.


Łukasz Mężyk