state of play: 11/02/2018
-- JOINT OPPOSITION APPEAL - 300LIVE: A joint appeal and declarations from PO, PSL, Nowoczesna, SLD, IP, and UED: People are meeting, and parties are meeting, reaching the conclusion that for the sake of reason they should cooperate because they need each other in this cooperation. https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/11/02
-- JĘDRZEJ BIELECKI IN RZ ON CLOSER TIES WITH GERMANY: “After Merkel, there may not be such a favorable leader for us for a long time, and Morawiecki represents the moderate wing of PiS. This favors closer relations between both countries. https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/311019948-Polska-Niemcy-Biznes-naciska-na-porozumienie.html&template=restricted-- GW'S COMPLETELY DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE: “From what we learn from our diplomatic sources in Berlin, during the preparations for Merkel's visit to Warsaw, there were voices suggesting postponing the consultations – due to the attacks on Germany conducted by PiS politicians and media subordinate to them. However, the day before the visit to Warsaw, Merkel's visit to Kyiv was planned – and both meetings would have had to be canceled, which was out of the question. – The plan for these talks is to minimize damage. We won't achieve anything, let's just get it over with – says our interlocutor.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,24120603,angela-merkel-w-warszawie-tak-zle-jeszcze-nie-bylo.html
-- WARZECHA ON THE FOLLY OF A COLD WAR WITH GERMANY - he writes in WP: “Perhaps it has to be this way – a simple, even crude message for domestic consumption, but pragmatic action externally? Except that it doesn't work like that. Our partners don't receive a clear signal that this is the intended combination, and they don't know how to interpret the subsequent anti-German attacks by PiS politicians. What's worse, the obsessively anti-German rhetoric has already created such powerful expectations among voters that a feedback loop is forming: politicians who perhaps treated their shouting only as a rhetorical tool to rally the electorate will have to start fulfilling the expectations they themselves have created. And this could cost us dearly.” https://opinie.wp.pl/lukasz-warzecha-zimna-wojna-z-niemcami-to-glupota-6312513205188737a
-- INDEPENDENCE ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATIONS CONTRADICTING PIS'S NARRATIVE - Jakub Majmurek: “The anniversary film about Piłsudski's Legions, generously funded by public money and produced by the creators of 'Smoleńsk,' will most likely premiere only in 2019. The state, as it turns out, is unable to organize non-partisan, truly open, and solemn celebrations for all. This is happening under the rule of a formation that has been talking about the 1918 anniversary non-stop for the last three years. Whose representatives repeatedly state that, unlike their political opponents, they will pursue a historical policy that restores Poles' pride in their state and its history.”
-- THE AUTHORITIES ARE SHOWING INCOMPETENCE - MAJMUREK CONTINUES: “Meanwhile, during a unique, once-in-a-century anniversary, the authorities, instead of an opportunity to experience pride in Polish history, are giving their compatriots a demonstration of their own incompetence. The 11.11. anniversary has caught them by surprise, like snow in winter for road maintenance crews. While in our climate, it can sometimes be difficult to predict the exact start of winter, it has long been known that the hundredth anniversary of the state's rebirth after years of partitions falls on Sunday, 11.11., and one could have truly prepared for it.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/polityka/11-listopada-tu-widac-problem-glebszy-niz-nieudolnosc-tej-wladzy/tw1zt56
-- THE MARCH OF THE WHITE RACE - GW's lead story.
-- LUDWIK DORN ON PIS ERASING THE PSL: “This means that depending on the scope of the purge that PiS will conduct in the won marshal's offices, several hundred to even two thousand green dots will be erased. But that's only half the problem. The other half, perhaps even larger, are the district offices.”
-- DORN ON A HYPOTHETICAL PEASANT OFFSHOOT OF PIS: “Establishing a peasant offshoot and putting them on their electoral lists brings PiS a gain of 1-2% of voters. Pushing the PSL out of parliament means that the mandates from the fallen peasant party will be divided between PiS and KO, roughly in proportion to the balance of power between them, so PiS will gain more from this than KO. Maintaining an absolute majority thus becomes highly probable.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24118963,strategia-pis-skorumpowac-i-wyluskac-ludzi-z-psl.html
-- PIS POLITICIANS ARE TRYING TO REPEAT THE MANEUVER THAT LED SLD TO THE RYWIN AFFAIR - writes Piotr Zaremba in DGP: “PiS has made this law a tool for political battle, for settling scores with elites, with opposition circles – aimed at gaining a more favorable position in the media market. When in 2003, SLD sought amendments to deconcentration regulations to gain greater influence over the media, the right, remaining in the same camp as Agora, opposed it because they understood the political goal of these actions. This was the root cause of the Rywin affair. Today, right-wing politicians are trying to repeat the same maneuver, adding an atmosphere of revolution. And at the same time, they are considering which of the pieces prepared in the Ministry of Culture are worth using to 'punish' or force specific entities into greater compliance.”
-- THE MEDIA ROW WILL BECOME ANOTHER SOURCE OF TROUBLE - Zaremba continues: “This latest row will also become a source of various international troubles. And one can complain that Poland will be treated differently than France. Much can be blamed on European elites, including their hysterical attitude towards PiS-led Poland, but in this case, they correctly recognize not so much the letter of the law, but its spirit.”
-- POLES ELECTED A GOVERNMENT AGAINST THE MEDIA, ALSO DESPITE INCITING PROPAGANDA - Zaremba: “There is something else as well. In the mechanical belief in the effectiveness of TVP propaganda, and in the hopes associated with reshaping the media market, lies a fundamental error. The belief that it is enough to take over or marginalize key traditional media outlets, and one can rule indefinitely. However, this is not true, because Poles have several times elected a government against the media, or at least against their dominant part. Also, in spite of inciting propaganda.”
-- TENS OF PERCENT OF POLES THINK DIFFERENTLY THAN THE RIGHT-WING, THIS MAY NOT HELP THE RIGHT-WING IN THE LONG RUN - ZAREMBA'S CONCLUSION: “This also includes the conviction that the opposition is an artificial product, imported from abroad or created by business, if not shady, circles. Meanwhile, tens of percent of Poles think and will continue to think differently than the right-wing. One can object to the head of Onet, Bartosz Węglarczyk, or the editor-in-chief of 'Newsweek,' Tomasz Lis, but they were not brought to Poland by Germans or by shady businessmen. Making martyrs out of them in the fight for media 'greater balance' will be a pathetic spectacle, also from the perspective of unwritten standards. And in the long run, it may not help the right-wing at all. It is worth considering before making a decision.” https://edgp.gazetaprawna.pl/e-wydanie/55666,2-listopada-2018/65615,Dziennik-Gazeta-Prawna/674509,Co-z-ta-repolonizacja.html
-- PSL WILL NOT GIVE UP STRUŹIK - Zuzanna Dąbrowska in RZ: “Unofficially, one can hear in PSL that the Peasants are willing to give up everything but Struzik. And PO will likely have to come to terms with this. However, this will probably come at the cost of one of the deputy marshals designated by PSL. PO will have a majority in the board – and PSL – the marshal. Will this arrangement work? This is to be determined next week, when all positions have been allocated.” https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-samorzadowe/311019930-Adam-Struzik-pozostanie-wladca-Mazowsza.html&template=restricted
-- ROMAN KLUSKA IN MAZUREK'S INTERVIEW IN DGP: “Honestly? I was tempted many times, from various sides. I was supposed to be a technical prime minister, serious people in 2005 – and I was at the peak of my popularity then – proposed that I run for president. There were groups that wanted to give me many millions of dollars for the campaign, just for me to agree.” http://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykuly/584398,roman-kluska-wyzwania-kuszenie-polityka-biznes.html
-- A SIGNAL HAS BEEN SENT TO THE EC AND CJEU THAT THE GOVERNMENT WILL NOT FIGHT THEM WITH THE CONSTITUTIONAL TRIBUNAL FOR NOW - EWA SIEDLECKA: “Ziobro's motion and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' polemical stance are before the Constitutional Tribunal. This probably means that the Tribunal will not deal with the matter for now, because the government itself does not know what decision it would want. And a decision other than what the government wants cannot be made in this Tribunal. A signal has been sent to the European Commission and the CJEU that the government will not – at least for now – fight them using the Constitutional Tribunal. Meaning that – temporarily – it is ready for negotiations. Therefore, the CJEU might not rush to consider preliminary rulings from Polish courts concerning the 'reform' of the judiciary. In particular, the Supreme Court's questions about the legality of the appointment and operation of the new National Council of the Judiciary (KRS), where a temporary injunction is at stake, which would mean suspending the activities of the Council, referred to as the Committee for Recommending Reliable (judges). Its takeover by PiS was and is key to this 'reform.'” https://siedlecka.blog.polityka.pl/2018/11/01/za-a-nawet-przeciw-ziobrze/?nocheck=1
-- BIRTHDAYS: Barbara Borys-Damięcka, Jerzy Osiatyński, Grażyna Staniszewska, Paweł Adamowicz, Tomasz Zdzikot, Karol Tokarczyk, Piotr Maciążek.
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