-- BIELAN ON ELECTIONS BEING A PIS SUCCESS, BUT SECRETLY HOPING FOR MAZOWIECKIE RULE, SPYCHALSKI SUGGESTS PRESIDENT PAD SIGNING THE NOVEMBER 12 LAW - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/10/29/

-- PIS MARCHES TOWARDS A SOLE MAJORITY - Grzegorz Osiecki and Tomasz Żółciak in DGP: “Since 2006, we have observed two regularities. Firstly, the party that wins local elections also wins parliamentary ones. Secondly, the party that gains the highest support at the regional assembly level has consistently been able to count on an electoral bonus of even a dozen percentage points in central elections. Thus, when Platforma Obywatelska (Civic Platform) won 27% of the vote in 2006, a year later in central elections it achieved 41.5% (a gain of 14.5%). In 2010, PO received 31% support, and a year later – almost 39.2% (a gain of 8.2%). In 2014, PiS gained the highest support in regional assemblies (27%), and a year later in parliamentary elections – 37.6% (a gain of 10.6%). On average, the bonus is around 11 percentage points.” http://www.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/1323955,wyniki-wyborow-w-sejmikach-zwyciestwo-pis.html

-- POLAND'S OPPOSITION SHOULD BLAME ITSELF - A LOUD ANALYSIS FROM THE PRESTIGIOUS FOREIGN POLICY: “Poland’s Opposition Has Nobody to Blame but Itself. After another lackluster election, Polish liberals should stop attacking the government and start taking a hard look in the mirror.”

-- FOREIGN POLICY AUTHORS ON THE OPPOSITION'S FOOLISH DECLARATION OF TOTALITY, WHICH HELPS PIS: “Moreover, it plays directly into PiS’s hands. Kaczynski thrives off a confrontational form of politics, in which he can portray the opposition not as a legitimate political force whose views should be taken into account but as implacable enemies to be vanquished. Schetyna’s foolish decision in early 2016 to declare that PO would offer “total opposition” to PiS was an example of how he has handed gifts to Kaczynski. The term has now become a government catchphrase to portray the opposition as dangerous zealots willing to attack the state by any means.”

-- FOREIGN POLICY - PO WILL CONTINUE TO LURCH ON AS A ZOMBIE PARTY - “The danger is that PO will lumber on as a kind of zombie party, maintaining a solid core of supporters but never offering enough to attract floating voters, while also either absorbing (as has happened in the recent coalition with Modern) or undermining (as with Biedron so far) other opposition forces. This would deny Poland’s opposition the new leadership and clearer, more positive narrative that it requires if it is to challenge PiS.”

-- THE OPPOSITION LACKS A CONVINCING NARRATIVE; SUCCESS IN CITIES IS MERELY URBAN VOTERS' HOSTILITY TOWARDS PIS, NOT ENTHUSIASM FOR AN ALTERNATIVE: “The second big failing of the opposition is the failure to create a convincing political narrative — an explanation for what it hopes to accomplish. By the end of its eight years in power, PO had clearly run out of ideas. Since then, under the leadership of a former minister in that PO-led government, it has failed to come up with any new ones. It is no longer clear what PO stands for other than being anti-PiS. That position is enough to ensure a solid base of support, of around 20 to 25 percent nationally, but not enough to win over the vital floating voters whom PiS successfully appealed to in 2015 with a positive message and clear campaign promises. Even the opposition’s success last weekend in big cities appears to have been motivated largely by urban voters’ hostility towards PiS rather than enthusiasm for the alternatives.”

-- FOREIGN POLICY ENCOURAGINGLY ON BIEDROŃ: “His emergence will represent a new challenge to PiS, which has found it easy to attack its longstanding rivals PO and the Polish People’s Party (as well as the more recent Modern, which can be portrayed as PO-lite). Counteracting a new movement led by Biedron, who comes without so much political baggage and with a less confrontational style, will require a recalibration. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/26/polands-opposition-has-nobody-to-blame-but-itself/

-- IT'S BETTER TO WIN ELECTIONS WITH KACZYŃSKI THAN WITH D’HONDT - JACEK ŻAKOWSKI in GW: “Simply the turn of fortune away from PiS will not save Poland. If the opposition does not help fortune by forming a common list for the European Parliament, and then for the Sejm and Senate, in two years it may suffer a historic crash, ending up roughly where it is today. Or even worse. PiS may crumble internally, the enthusiasm of United Right voters may cool with further government defeats, but the numerical support for the party leader’s electoral lists may remain stable enough for D’Hondt to ensure them governance for years to come.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24102596,latwiej-wygrac-z-kaczynskim-niz-z-d-hondtem.html

-- ZIOBRO IS FIGHTING FOR HIS LIFE - Dominika Wielowieyska in GW: “Kaczyński has not yet decided whether to agree to the Prime Minister's requests. But he is close to agreeing to Ziobro's resignation. The Minister of Justice does not intend to surrender without a fight. He does not agree to be sent to Brussels. According to the latest unofficial information from within PiS, he has just checkmated the party leader with his fresh idea to collect signatures from 15 MPs on the 100th anniversary of regaining independence and, with the support of Father Tadeusz Rydzyk, submit a new bill for a complete ban on abortion – as a "gift for St. John Paul II." Officially, however, Patryk Jaki, a politician associated with Ziobro, claims that such a bill does not exist. And there isn't even such an idea.”

-- WIELOWIEYSKA ON THE THREAT OF ZIOBRO'S EUROPEAN LIST: “Jarosław Kaczyński reportedly threatened to expel from the party all those who would want to sign this bill. But then Ziobro may threaten a split. And he may run in the European Parliament elections independently, but with the support of Father Tadeusz Rydzyk. To block such a possibility, PiS enacted a new electoral law for the EP some time ago, which would eliminate small formations from this race. However, President Andrzej Duda vetoed this law, and Ziobro's small party would thus have a chance to win some European parliamentary seats. Such blackmail is very dangerous for Jarosław Kaczyński.”

-- AT THE END OF WIELOWIEYSKA'S ARTICLE, AN SMS FROM MARIUSZ GOSIEK, SECRETARY OF SOLIDARNA POLSKA: “I kindly inform you, on behalf of the Board of Solidarna Polska, that this story, invented by someone or by you, is a lie and manipulation. It was likely created so that unreliable media engaged in campaigns on one side of the political scene could manipulate public opinion in the second phase of the election campaign. Your lack of credibility on this matter is evidenced by the fact that after Minister Patryk Jaki's denial, you are no longer writing about a bill but about an idea or concept. This is the same lie and manipulation as your initial framing of this topic.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24102745,walczac-o-zycie-ziobro-straszy-kaczynskiego-zakazem-aborcji.html

-- PAWEŁ RESZKA ON THE DEFEAT OF PSL: “The numbers are exceptionally brutal for the agrarian party. In the regional assembly elections, PSL lost nearly a million votes compared to 2014. Then, almost 160 seats, today 70. PiS, on the other hand, gained over 2 million. In 2014, it had 170 representatives in regional assemblies, today over 250.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/wladza-usmiecha-sie-do-chlopa-czyli-jak-zyje-polska-wies-po-wyborach/n3z0cdj

-- ONLY A DISCIPLINED PARTY CAN CHANGE POLAND, KUKIZ IS A CIRCUS - MICHAŁ KARNOWSKI: “The most important question: what would happen if the Kukiz's Movement (co-)governed? What would be the state of the government? What would months of 'coalition' cohabitation be spent on? Likely on quarrels and embarrassments. I remember recent times when even the editorial offices of wPolityce.pl and 'Sieci' were criticized, including from the right, for their lack of the required enthusiasm for Kukiz's Movement and for pointing out that while it might be an interesting spectacle, nothing serious could be built this way, that such an organized force couldn't go far. Whether someone likes it or not, Poland can only be changed through a strong, reformist government, and such a government can only be formed by an ambitious but disciplined political party. Stating this view is not propaganda, but a defense of the only path to effective action. The rest is scenery or a circus.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/418596-a-gdyby-tak-kukiz-wspolrzadzil-oto-puenta-pewnej-dyskusji#

-- KUKIZ HAS LOST CONTROL - Michał Wilgocki in GW.

-- KUKIZ'S NIGHTTIME FLIGHT OF FANCY - SE's front page.

-- PAWEŁ KUKIZ'S VULGAR POSTS - Fakt.

-- TOMASZ SAWCZUK IN KULTURA LIBERALNA REVIEWS BIEDROŃ'S BOOK: “Overall, the author's story in 'Nowy rozdział' (New Chapter) forms a coherent vision, and the book undoubtedly contains more concrete content than the average pre-election publication bearing a politician's name.”

-- SAWCZUK POINTS TO THE CONFLICT BETWEEN MACRONISM AND LEFTISM: “More ideological leftists might also distance themselves from Biedroń. His project, in essence, resembles an attempt to unite the Social Democratic Alliance (SLD) and parts of the left-wing activists with more progressive representatives of Platforma and Nowoczesna. However, these latter parties currently form a solid center-right coalition, and Czarzasty's party might find it more profitable to join the Civic Coalition (KO). https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2018/10/29/sawczuk-robert-biedron-ksiazka-nowy-rozdzial-recenzja/

-- BEATA SZYDŁO TRAVELS LIKE A PRIME MINISTER - title in Rzeczpospolita.

-- INSTEAD OF WORKING, SHE'S SULKING - Fakt on Szydło.

-- PAWEŁ ADAMOWICZ ASKS PŁAŻYŃSKI ABOUT HIS STANCE ON PIS'S “ANTI-SELF-GOVERNMENT POLICY” - in an interview with Jacek Nizinkiewicz in Rzeczpospolita: “I expect that the residents of Gdańsk will not be fooled by Mr. Kacper's likable face, behind which stands Mr. Kaczyński. Apart from finding a position in the PiS-controlled company Energa, I haven't heard much about Kacper Płażyński. However, I remember his father Maciej's involvement in building local government in the 1990s. I respect my opponent, but I would like to know more about his attitude towards PiS's anti-self-government policy and the centralization of the state.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/310289966-Adamowicz-Obecne-wybory-to-plebiscyt.html

-- PŁAŻYŃSKI ON ADAMOWICZ'S STRATEGY OF STIRRING UP PURELY POLITICAL EMOTIONS INSTEAD OF DISCUSSING THE CITY'S PROBLEMS - tells Nizinkiewicz in Rzeczpospolita: “The current mayor of Gdańsk sees Jarosław Kaczyński everywhere; it's probably an obsession, and I'm starting to worry about Mr. Mayor. More seriously: I even understand Paweł Adamowicz's strategy of stirring up purely political emotions. He may find it effective. There's no need to discuss specifics, no need to compete on programs, no need to rationally explain one's own legal problems – just scare and stomp your foot loudly enough. However, the residents of Gdańsk are tired of this. They tell me about it every day. They want normalcy finally, and in the local government campaign, they expect to talk about public transport, a nursery for children, or unclogging the city, not constant tirades about some imagined threats.”

-- PŁAŻYŃSKI ON WALESA, NOT HIM, THREATENING WITH A COMMISSIONER IN GDAŃSK: “For several months, the second candidate from the Civic Platform camp, Jarosław Wałęsa, also used this threat. He probably wanted to win over some of Adamowicz's voters this way. He repeated it even after he was eliminated from the competition. I have not used this argument once in the campaign. And let it remain so. https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-samorzadowe/310289964-Plazynski-Nie-chce-podkrecac-emocji.html

-- THE SERVICE OF DENTING VEHICLES - Wojciech Czuchnowski on the front page of Gazeta Wyborcza: “What's more, the 'reform' of the service has changed the system for assigning drivers. Apart from the group protecting the president and prime minister, drivers are not assigned to specific vehicles. – It happens that random people volunteer for tasks. The result is incidents that reach the media, but also many minor collisions, scrapes, etc. – says an SOP officer who has already filed a report to leave the service. He recalls the embarrassments: installing a tire from a dumpster on the presidential limousine, accidentally activating the emergency exit – the front windshield of an armored BMW (the replacement cost is over PLN 60,000), or the driver accidentally locking himself in the car after activating the system preventing an external attack.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75248,24103244,kierowcy-najslabsze-ogniwo-sluzby-ochrony-panstwa-skad-sie.html

-- DUDA'S HIGH SCHOOL COMMENTS HARM POLAND - Bartosz T. Wieliński in GW: “If Andrzej Duda were thinking about the state's interest, he would refrain today from infantile digs at Merkel and Macron. But the president, without thinking about the consequences, wanted to wink at his core electorate.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24102949,gimnazjalne-komentarze-andrzeja-dudy-szkodza-polsce.html

-- KAZIMIERZ CZAPLICKI, LONG-TIME HEAD OF THE NATIONAL ELECTION OFFICE, HAS DIED: http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24103066,kazimierz-czaplicki-nie-zyje-przez-23-lata-byl-szefem-kbw.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Wojciech Kolarski, Jerzy Fedorowicz, Henryka Bochniarz, Tomasz Nałęcz, Stanisław Kogut.