state of play: 10/25/2018

STATE OF PLAY: PiS Internal Memo on County and Voivodeship Assembly Records, Gdula: PiS Entering an Ever-Tighter Corridor, Dudek: The PiS Revolution Balloon Has Been Pricked, Flis: Mobilization Like in 2007

Łukasz Mężyk

-- 3 YEARS AGO, PiS WON THE ELECTIONS.

-- GAWKOWSKI ON BIEDROŃ AS THE GREATEST HOPE ON THE LEFT, LUBNAUER ON THE OPPOSITION'S SUCCESS: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/10/25/

-- FRAGMENT OF AN INTERNAL PiS MEMO SEEN BY 300POLITYKA: “PiS garnered over 5 million 250 thousand votes, which is over 2 million more than in 2014 (63% more). PSL lost 990 thousand votes compared to 2014. PiS improved the result of PO from 2010 by over 1 million 200 thousand votes (i.e., over 30%) and thus set a record in the history of elections to provincial assemblies since their inception in 1998. PiS broke the record for percentage results in the history of provincial assemblies. It surpassed AWS, which in 1998 obtained 33.32% in elections to provincial assemblies, by 0.7 percentage points.”

-- FRAGMENT OF THE MEMO REGARDING COUNTIES: “Law and Justice won in 147 rural county councils out of 314 rural counties, i.e., in 48% of all rural county councils. PiS increased the number of winning counties by over 80% compared to 2014. In this way, it matched the PSL's 2014 result in rural counties. PSL retained victory in only 40 counties – that is 27% of rural county councils compared to 2014. In total, in rural counties and cities with the rights of a county, PiS won in 162 counties out of 380, i.e., 43% of counties. This is a historic record; no one has ever won in so many counties.”

-- PARLIAMENT FINALLY DID SOMETHING FOR THE PEOPLE - Fakt praises the free November 12th.

-- PiS WAS LYING LOW, DWORCZYK TO RECRUIT COALITION PARTNERS - Agata Kondzińska in GW: “With each subsequent provincial assembly taken over by PiS, the mood in the ruling camp improves. And the head of the Prime Minister's Chancellery, Michał Dworczyk, is to focus on recruiting as many coalition partners as possible.”

-- KACZYŃSKI BELIEVES THE POLEXIT DEBATE MOBILIZED ANTI-PiS VOTERS - writes Kondzińska: “Although Ziobro approached the Constitutional Tribunal at the beginning of October, the matter emerged at the end of the election campaign and sparked a heated debate about Polexit. – Kaczyński believes this is the main reason for mobilizing the anti-PiS electorate – says our source. Among the reasons for the defeat in cities is also the case of Hanna Zdanowska, who won re-election in Łódź but was previously finally sentenced to a fine for certifying untruths in documents for a bank loan. – The threat that she would have to leave certainly did not help us, but it certainly mobilized her supporters – says a PiS MP.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24087900,pis-rozlicza-kampanie-morawiecki-wzmocniony-ziobro-na-cenzurowanym.html

-- POST-ELECTION STRATEGIZING: PiS WELCOMES APPLICANTS - DGP's lead story (Osiecki, Żółciak): “Political maneuvering concerns, for example, Lower Silesia, where 36 seats are up for grabs, and a coalition between PiS and the Non-Partisan Local Government Officials is a possibility (which would give a majority of 20–21 seats). According to our unofficial findings, the party has already sent its emissaries there on Tuesday. The mayor of Lubin, Robert Raczyński (Non-Partisan Local Government Officials), also has a lot to say. According to our information, he is setting the condition of abolishing the copper tax for KGHM, on which almost all of Lubin depends, during coalition talks. – I've already received calls from PO and PiS – admits Mayor Raczyński, adding that there is no rush for now. – The provincial assembly will not convene for another three weeks, and the provincial board has up to three months to choose its marshals. We are working on our conditions; one of them will certainly be the issue of the copper tax – indicates Robert Raczyński.” http://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/wybory-samorzadowe/artykuly/583891,pis-wybory-samorzadowe-koalicje-sejmiki.html

-- RAFAŁ TRZASKOWSKI RECEIVED 150 THOUSAND MORE VOTES THAN HGW's BEST RESULT, RECEIVED MORE VOTES THAN SASIN AND BIELECKI AS PiS CANDIDATES - graphic in DGP.

-- THE PiS REVOLUTION BALLOON HAS BEEN PRICKED - PROF. ANTONI DUDEK IN DGP (Grzegorz Osiecki, Tomasz Żółciak): “A lot can be gained here. Even if the Sejm passes the deconcentration law, and the president receives a call from Washington, will he sign it? The PiS revolution balloon was pricked on Sunday, the only question is whether the air will escape very quickly or slowly. Because it's definitely starting to deflate.”

-- DUDEK ON REPLACING THE TVP PRESIDENT, HIDING TERLECKI - further in DGP: “President Kaczyński has two paths: continuing the current course or softening it, because it's unlikely to be intensified. Although rumors of a media deconcentration project are appearing, this would indicate a misunderstanding of these election results. The president understood them, hence the lack of visible enthusiasm on Sunday. He looks further than his immediate circle. He sees that the large cities were not won, and in the long run, it is difficult to govern Poland without their support. After all, more and more people are moving to them each year. Therefore, all that remains for him is to maintain the course or soften it. If softening, then one must consider changing the television president, changing the direction of government propaganda, perhaps replacing the party spokesperson, hiding Marshal Terlecki. That is, one must show the nice, warm face of PiS to win over the undecided.” http://www.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/1318209,rewolucji-pis-nie-bedzie.html

-- MACIEJ GDULA ON THE LACK OF ELATION IN NOWOGRODZKA BECAUSE PiS IS ENTERING AN EVER-TIGHTER CORRIDOR: “It is therefore not accidental that there is no euphoria in Nowogrodzka. Especially since the elections showed that it is impossible to be both PiS (threat of refugees, Warsaw Uprising-like policy, PiS more generous than the EU) and not PiS (19th district, submitting party cards, a human face). PiS, ahead of the European Parliament elections, seems to be entering an ever-tighter corridor, in which its room for maneuver is shrinking.”

-- CIVIC COALITION WAS UNABLE TO REPLICATE THE SUPPORT FOR PO AND NOWOCZESNA - GDULA FURTHER IN CRITIQUE: “Looking at the elections to the provincial assemblies, it is clear that the Civic Coalition did not achieve such a spectacular success, despite attracting Katarzyna Lubnauer and Barbara Nowacka. Comparing the KO's results to the 2015 parliamentary elections, we will notice that the combined parties and circles are not even able to replicate the results of PO and Nowoczesna from three years ago, let alone expand the voter base. In total, KO gained about a million fewer votes. Of course, these are local government elections, not parliamentary ones, and they cannot be compared entirely. On the other hand, there was no Nowoczesna in the previous local government elections, and this year's elections were much more marked by national politics due to the three-year period of brutal PiS rule and resistance against it.” http://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/my-tez-wygralismy-wybory-samorzadowe/

-- DR JAROSŁAW FLIS ON MOBILIZATION LIKE IN 2007 - says in an interview with Jacek Niznkiewicz in RZ: “It is clearly visible that voter mobilization is occurring like in 2007. This is a very serious warning for PiS, because 2007 is not a pleasant memory for them.”

-- PiS HAS MERELY EMERGED FROM A SLUMP - FLIS FURTHER IN RZ: “In large cities, there is a threat related to the polarization of the country. If local politics becomes nationalized, it can translate into negative sentiment nationwide. Although PiS has increased its holdings, it has merely emerged from a slump. PiS won the local government elections, but only by points.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/310249943-Jaroslaw-Flis-Tsunami-PiS-nie-bylo-tylko-przyplyw.html

-- PiS'S DULL CAMPAIGN, NOT KO'S PROGRAM PROPOSALS, DROVE VOTERS TO THE POLLS - PAWEŁ WROŃSKI IN GW: “The increase in the number of councilors is, moreover, a minor achievement of the coalition's campaign. Voters, especially in cities, voted against PiS in an aesthetic reflex, in protest against some candidates and aggressive propaganda that insults intelligence. So, it was rather PiS's dull campaign, not KO's program proposals, that drove its voters to the polls. Schetyna probably dreams of KO being like PO in 2007, but this is unattainable. The Platform was also strong in smaller local governments at that time. Parliamentary elections are a year away, and as has been the case so far, elections in Poland are won by Garwolins, not Warszawas. And here lies the problem of PSL.”

-- NO GREAT VICTORY FOR PiS NOR EFFECTIVE ANTI-PiS - WROŃSKI'S CONCLUSION: “After the local government elections, each party usually declares victory. However, on Sunday, all groupings lost something, or the elections revealed some of their problems. There is no 'great victory for PiS', and there is no 'effective anti-PiS' that Grzegorz Schetyna spoke of; the politically divided and media-strong left does not exist.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24087966,wybory-samorzadowe-skoro-wszyscy-wygrali-to-kto-przegral.html

-- PRESIDENT DUDA'S FATHER ON WP'S QUESTION ABOUT RAFAŁ BOCHENKA'S CANDIDACY FOR MARSHAL OF MAŁOPOLSKA: “President's father, Prof. Jan Duda, also achieved a very good result (nearly 50,000 votes) in the local government elections. When asked about Rafał Bochenek, he admits he will comply with PiS leadership directives: - I will submit to the superior decisions; as a councilor, I am at your service. The position of marshal is a responsible function and must be held by a person who can cope with the marshal's duties. As for Rafał Bochenek himself, please excuse me from answering. I simply have no opinion on the matter.” https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/od-pogodynka-do-marszalka-rafal-bochenek-chce-awansu-i-czeka-na-decyzje-jaroslawa-kaczynskiego-6309507794790529a

-- PIOTR PACEWICZ ON THE RUTHLESS D’HONDT METHOD AND 46% OF SEATS FOR PiS: https://oko.press/6-sejmikow-dla-pis-9-dla-ko-psl-ale-w-3-musi-dobrac-koalicjantow-niepewny-dolny-slask-wyniki/

-- PACEWICZ ANALYZES RESULTS IN CITIES: “In two-thirds of the 107 presidential cities, the first round of elections was won by independent candidates, sometimes supported by parties. The Civic Coalition won in 24 out of 106 cities and has a chance for 4 more, PiS in 10 and could reach 12. Only 11 women won. A second round will be needed in 43 cities.” https://oko.press/prezydenci-nie-dla-pis-na-107-miast-wygral-tylko-w-10-mniejszych-triumf-niezaleznych-68-ko-24/

-- IN PiS, THEY WANT KURSKSKI'S HEAD - Agnieszka Kublik in GW: “But a few days after the elections, within PiS itself, many leaders blame... TVP president Jacek Kurski for the worse-than-expected result. – He is responsible for triggering anti-PiS emotions. He mobilized the negative PiS electorate. He treated the large cities with contempt, but also people from smaller ones. This vulgar populism of the message, the promotion of kitsch in culture, like Zenon Martyniuk and Kurski himself singing 'Zielone Oczy.' This shabby TVP Info with its intrusive commentary, tacky propaganda, and pretense of independent journalism – lists one PiS MP.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24087880,w-pis-chca-glowy-jacka-kurskiego-czy-prezes-tvp-straci-stanowisko.html

-- DUDA SPEAKS THE LANGUAGE OF PUTIN'S TROLLS - Bartosz T. Wieliński in GW: “Where does President Andrzej Duda get his knowledge about the world, if he talks about German media being silent about rapes? From Russian propaganda. This shows the intellectual horizon of the head of state and the way he perceives complex international reality.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75399,24087592,prezydent-duda-mowi-jezykiem-trolli-putina.html

-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI STRONGLY ON THE PRESIDENT'S TRIP: DID POLAND ACHIEVE ANYTHING THROUGH THIS SQUABBLE? - writes in RZ: “More serious questions arise: did Poland achieve anything through this squabble? Have we moved closer to achieving our strategic goals, among which is, for instance, blocking Nord Stream 2? Have we resolved any issue in our bilateral relations with Germany? The answer to all these questions is: no. Therefore, significant reputational losses (as Duda is increasingly branded as a eurosceptic, which will not make his further diplomatic conquests in Europe any easier), and little or no gains. Was it worth it?” https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/181029599-Michal-Szuldrzynski-Co-prezydent-ugral-w-Berlinie.html

-- BIRTHDAYS: Stanisław Kalemba, Kataryna, Maria Naimska.


Łukasz Mężyk