state of play: 10/24/2018

THE STATE OF PLAY: Szułdrzyński on Morawiecki's Stab in the Back, Fakt and GW: PiS Recaptures Voivodeship Assemblies, Matyja: Left's Defeat Gives a Solid Mandate to Biedroń's Initiative, Gielewska and Matyja: Turnout Favored the Opposition

Łukasz Mężyk

-- VOIVODE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS GO TO PIS - Front Page of GW: “After an electoral drubbing in cities, Jarosław Kaczyński’s party is taking revenge in the voivodeship assemblies. According to still unofficial information, it may govern in six of them independently.”

http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24083224,sejmiki-plyna-do-pis-w-szesciu-moze-rzadzic-samodzielnie.html

-- PIS RECAPTURES VOIVODE ASSEMBLIES, MOODS IN THE PARTY HAVE IMPROVED - headline in Fakt.

-- PIS TAKES OVER POWER IN VOIVODE ASSEMBLIES - on the front page of SE.

-- MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI ON MORAWIECKI’S STAB IN THE BACK - writes in RZ: “If Morawiecki speaks in Brussels on Thursday and Friday at a summit dedicated to, among other things, the issue of refugees, and announces a great Polish success consisting of the EU permanently abandoning plans for mandatory relocation, the campaign team releases a spot scaring people with refugees. This was a stab in the back for Morawiecki. If PiS, in a spot, frightens people with uncontrolled refugee influx into cities where PO candidates win, it first assumes that the Polish state – governed by PiS – has nothing to say on this matter. Secondly, it undermines the significance of Morawiecki’s words, who, at that very time in Brussels, assured that he had done everything to block attempts to impose refugee quotas on Poland.”

-- ZIOBRO’S LETTER IS ANOTHER STAB IN THE BACK FOR MORAWIECKI - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “Ziobro’s letter to the Tribunal was another stab in the back that Morawiecki received from his own base. Paradoxically, the Prime Minister’s ally in the capital became Ziobro’s deputy, Patryk Jaki, who was photographed against the backdrop of EU flags, emphasizing that he is a pragmatist.”

-- PIS RADICALIZATION MOBILIZES OPPONENTS - SZUŁDRZYŃSKI’S CONCLUSION: “The radicalization of PiS mobilizes the party’s opponents. EP elections are held mainly in cities, so such a strategy is a ticket to disaster in May, which could cost PiS a lot. Although, of course, adopting such a strategy suits the opposition.”

https://www.rp.pl/Analizy/310239917-Szuldrzynski-Kto-wbil-noz-w-plecy-Morawieckiego.html

-- ATMOSPHERE AMONG THE OPPOSITION WAS NOT GOOD YESTERDAY - Grzegorz Osiecki and Tomasz Żółciak in DGP: “The atmosphere among the opposition was not good yesterday. On Sunday, there was joy that major cities were still unconquerable for PiS, and the ruling party’s achievements in the voivodeship assembly elections seemed modest compared to the announcements. The satisfaction did not last long. Yesterday, hour by hour, Jarosław Kaczyński’s party – along with the calculation of mandates using the d’Hondt method – gained a majority in successive voivodeship assemblies. PiS politicians were breathing a sigh of relief – the vision of them winning again, yet not ruling, was increasingly receding.”

http://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/wybory-samorzadowe/artykuly/583832,wybory-samorzadowe-2018-pis-po-wyniki.html

-- TUSK WILL RUN FOR PRESIDENT IF KOSINIAK BECOMES PRIME MINISTER - Sylwester Ruszkiewicz in WP: “As Wirtualna Polska has established, following the Civic Coalition’s good election result in the local government elections, European Council President Donald Tusk is increasingly close to deciding to run in the 2020 presidential elections. As he communicated to his associates, the condition is for the Prime Minister’s seat to go to PSL leader Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. (...) According to PO politicians we spoke with – “the conditions under which Tusk would run in 2020 are an example of a disinformation war.” – It’s a game to weaken the Civic Coalition and create conflict between Tusk and Schetyna. But it is also an attempt by PiS to attack the PSL leader – they tell us in anonymous conversations.”

https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/tusk-ma-plan-na-wybory-prezydenckie-wystartuje-jesli-premierem-zostanie-pewien-polityk-6309088466224769a

-- MOBILIZATION CHANGED LONG-STANDING VOTER TURNOUT PATTERNS - FATALISM WAS BROKEN - RAFAŁ MATYJA in KP: “From the perspective of the nationwide competition, three more significant things happened. Firstly, the Civic Coalition managed to mobilize residents of large cities to participate in the elections. This gave them very good results in Warsaw, Łódź, and Poznań, and at the same time changed the long-standing voter turnout patterns. Let’s just say that participation in elections increased from 47% to 67% in Warsaw, from 42% to 57% in Krakow, and from 38% to 58% in Łódź. This mobilization is – in my opinion – not only a result of the opposition’s effective campaign but also a reaction to the ruling party’s behavior. If it continues in the parliamentary elections – it may bring greater effects than in the voivodeship assembly elections. Today, it was enough to break the fatalism that had gripped some opposition supporters in 2016-2017, seeing their helplessness in competing with the ruling camp.”

-- THE LEFT'S WEAK RESULT GAVE BIEDROŃ A SOLID POLITICAL MANDATE - MATYJA CONTINUES: “If the SLD had received support at the level of the PSL, it could have discussed the shape of the left-wing lists for the European Parliament and then for the Sejm from a position of strength. In this situation, it left considerable room for action for the former mayor of Słupsk. (...) The results of the SLD and Together, as well as the Green Party, gave a solid political mandate to Biedroń’s initiative. He can run in the conditions of the deepest political crisis of the left with a very clear message. The situation cannot be allowed where voters of this formation, fearing wasting their vote once again, will go and vote for a coalition of centrist and center-right parties. In the European elections, this argument will sound rational, and the strength of the endeavor can be tested in a way that is “safe” for Biedroń’s potential voters.”

-- IF THE VOIVODE GOVERNMENTS CHANGE LIKE THE MANAGEMENT OF STATE-OWNED COMPANIES, THERE WILL BE NO SHORTAGE OF POLITICAL ATTRACTIONS - MATYJA CONTINUES: “Everything indicates that the voivodeship assemblies, subjected to party competition, will be politically more interesting in this term, but perhaps less stable. Not only because of coalition games but also due to personal conflicts within the parties. If the governments of the voivodeships led by PiS change as often as the authorities of state-owned companies controlled by this formation, there will be no shortage of political attractions. In any case, in a few weeks – after the voivodeship governments are formed – local government will step down from the forefront, giving way to the game leading up to the European elections, which will verify the plan. And the main parties have a few weeks to rework their narratives and describe the meaning of the competition in a slightly different way than in the last three years.”

http://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/matyja-wybory-samorzadowe-2018/

-- JAKUB MAJMUREK ON BIEDROŃ GIVING A FACE TO THE LEFT: “Finally, someone is needed who will give this project a face. Who will legitimize it as an effective leader. The only such person currently seems to be Robert Biedroń. He has freshness and energy behind him. He is not burdened by a demoralizing defeat – the candidate for mayor of Słupsk supported by Biedroń, Krystyna Danilecka-Wojewódzka, most likely already won in the first round.”

-- THE COALITION OF KO-PSL ALONE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO REMOVE PIS, LIBERALS SHOULD CROSS THEIR FINGERS FOR THE LEFT - MAJMUREK’S CONCLUSION: “The PSL-KO coalition alone may not be enough. Trzaskowski or Jaśkowiak won because they attracted progressive voters. In the parliamentary elections, KO may still be too conservative for them. The liberal center needs reserves to remove PiS and potential coalition partners from Kukiz from power. Instead of attacking Biedroń and SLD, they should now be rooting for them.”

https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/razem-znokautowane-sld-na-deskach-co-dalej-z-lewica-po-klesce/0te3wsy

-- THE LEFT SHOULD REFLECT - RAFAŁ WOŚ in TP: “What next? Many left-wing politicians or commentators will probably repeat that nothing happened in the 2018 elections. Just normal, because Poles don’t feel or understand the left. And it’s purely coincidental, of course, that for almost 20 years, nothing significant has grown to the left of the liberals in Polish politics. Einstein used to say that the measure of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again while expecting different results. The left should ponder this in the coming months.”

https://www.tygodnikpowszechny.pl/lewico-nic-sie-nie-stalo-155963

-- THEY WON’T WIN BUT THEY WILL PROMOTE THEMSELVES - JACEK GĄDEK ON WASSERMANN AND PŁAŻYŃSKI: “Local government elections. PiS takes power in Małopolska, but Małgorzata Wassermann’s chances of snatching Krakow from the opposition are slim. The right is trying to break the glass ceiling in Gdańsk as well – it won’t win, but Kacper Płażyński will get very well promoted.”

http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24081473,krakow-i-gdansk-stare-wygi-ida-po-wladze-wilczki-pis-sie-wypromuja.html

-- ANNA GIELEWSKA WRITES THAT TURNOUT FAVORED THE OPPOSITION: “Even now, however, one can wonder if higher turnout will prove to be a trend in future elections? Will the main parties manage to maintain the mobilization of their electorates? They might succeed if the emotions do not subside. This conclusion particularly applies to the opposition’s electorate, which is traditionally much less disciplined than the voters of the ruling camp. Therefore, one should not expect the opposition to strive to lower the tension. After analyzing the results in large cities, the ruling camp may be even more interested if it concludes that a decrease in the temperature of the dispute could demobilize the opposition’s electorate.”

https://www.wprost.pl/tylko-u-nas/10163328/frekwencja-skutek-uboczny-polaryzacji.html

-- KOSINIAK, IN RESPONSE TO NIZINKIEWICZ’S QUESTION WHETHER PSL WILL JOIN KO FOR THE EUROPEAN ELECTIONS - in RZ: “Much depends on the voivodeship coalitions. This will be the first test of how cooperation shapes up.”

-- KOSINIAK ON A JOINT MEETING WITH CZARZASTY AND SCHETYNA: “We agreed that we would meet after the announcement of the official results, in a broader group with the leader of the SLD.”

-- KOSINIAK SAYS WITHOUT PSL, PIS WOULD RULE IN 15 VOIVODESHIPS: “We managed to regain the trust of the Polish countryside. Not yet enough to win against PiS, but enough to significantly weaken them. Without us, PiS would be boasting a result of over 40 percent today and would be ruling in fifteen voivodeships.”

https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-samorzadowe-2018/310239916-Wladyslaw-Kosiniak-Kamysz-Z-politycznymi-terrorystami-sie-nie-negocjuje.html

-- REBELLIOUS LOT - on the front page of GW.

-- THE CEO OF LOT MUST LEAVE, BUT HE CANNOT BE FORGOTTEN - Adriana Rozwadowska in GW: “From the excellently compensated CEO of the national pride, we would expect management skills. The last few days have shown that Milczarski prefers the manor-like model. Therefore, he should leave, but he should also not be forgotten: the tools he invented for suppressing protests and the fact that he led to the largest staff strike in the history of PLL LOT should be given a new name as 'Milczarski methods.' So that no CEO ever forgets where the boundaries of an innovative approach to labor law lie.”

http://wyborcza.pl/7,155287,24081557,milczarski-musi-odejsc-ale-nalezy-mu-sie-haslo-w-slownikach.html

-- ZUZANNA DĄBROWSKA ON THE LOT PROTEST BEING A FIGHT FOR DECENCY - writes in RZ: “The arrogance of the CEO, who first fired the head of the cabin crew union, and then another 70 people, and the contempt with which he treats his own employees, make their protest a fight for decency and the defense of basic human rights.”

https://www.rp.pl/Komentarze/310239928-Dabrowska-Kazdy-z-nas-moze-byc-pilotem.html

-- 27 YEARS AGO, the first issue of Super Express was published.

-- BIRTHDAYS: Bishop Tadeusz Pieronek, Jacek Amsterdamski, Mira Suchodolska, Leszek Sikorski.


Łukasz Mężyk