state of play: 10/23/2018
-- LUBNAUER ON 10 REGIONAL ASSEMBLIES FOR KO, DWORCZYK ON ATTACKS AGAINST THE PRIME MINISTER - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/10/23/
-- OKO.PRESS WRITES THAT PIS MAY GOVERN IN 7 REGIONAL ASSEMBLIES: “Contrary to initial reports that PiS has no chance of governing in more than two voivodeships, Kaczyński's party may seek to take power in as many as seven regional assemblies, including Łódź and Lower Silesia!”.
-- PIS TO TAKE OVER MAJORITY OF REGIONAL ASSEMBLIES, PSL BIDS FAREWELL TO POWER - GAZETA.PL: “Election results. Although the National Electoral Commission has not yet announced the official results, we know the partial results from most polling stations. According to them, PiS may take over the majority of regional assemblies”. http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24079841,prawo-i-sprawiedliwosc-przejmie-wiekszosc-sejmikow-wojewodzkich.html
-- GAZETA WYBORCZA ON THE CLICHÉ IN THE WEST POMERANIAN REGIONAL ASSEMBLY: “If they are confirmed, a near boxing clinch may arise: a potential (likely) coalition of PiS and the Non-Partisan Local Government Officials will have half the votes in the 30-member assembly, while the other half will go to KO, PSL, and SLD. Who will hold local government power in the region will then depend on the stance of the sole councilor from SLD (in the outgoing term, Sojusz flirted with PiS) and on the four Non-Partisan councilors”. http://szczecin.wyborcza.pl/szczecin/7,34939,24079199,wybory-samorzadowe-bedzie-pat-w-zachodniopomorskim-sejmiku.html
-- TRZASKOWSKI ENTERS THE FIRST LEAGUE, MAY CONSIDER BECOMING NO. 1 IN CIVIC PLATFORM - MICHAŁ SZUŁDRZYŃSKI IN RZ: “If Trzaskowski had managed a victory in the second round, his win would not be as spectacular a success as it is today. As a result, Trzaskowski enters the absolute first league of Polish politics. He becomes the second person in the Civic Platform and may consider becoming the number one someday”. https://www.rp.pl/Wybory-samorzadowe/181029830-Szuldrzynski-Trzaskowski-wchodzi-do-politycznej-pierwszej-ligi.html
-- THERE IS SUCH A COUNTRY THAT HAS NO LEFT - ADAM LESZCZYŃSKI IN OKO.PRESS: “Defeat. Failure. Catastrophe. The very poor result of the left in the local government elections is partly due to divisions, partly to fear of PiS, and partly to the shift of the entire electorate to the right. But without ten percent of left-wing voters, it will be very difficult for the opposition to remove PiS from power.”
-- THIS RESULT IS A WARNING FOR THE LEFT AND CENTER AND A GOOD LONG-TERM FORECAST FOR THE RIGHT - LESZCZYŃSKI CONTINUES: “Beyond tactical reasons, structural changes in the electorate are responsible for the left's poor performance. Younger voters are reluctant to vote for the left; older voters, if exit polls conducted during the local government elections by IPSOS are to be believed, do not vote for it at all. In the 18-29 age group, SLD, Zieloni, and Razem received a total of eight percentage points, less than Kukiz'15 (13.6 percent) combined. Moreover, the young do not win elections: the youngest cohorts are relatively small, and they rarely vote. This result is a powerful warning for the left and center for the future and a good long-term forecast for the right (PiS also wins against KO in this age group).”
-- CIVIC COALITION ALONE WILL NOT MANAGE - LESZCZYŃSKI'S CONCLUSION: “There are 10, maybe 15 percent of left-wing voters in Poland today. If they vote for one party – any party – PiS will have no chance of a solo majority in parliamentary elections, and the future of democracy in Poland depends on them. The ruling party currently maintains a comfortable lead over Civic Coalition. There is no indication that it can remove PiS from power on its own.” https://oko.press/jest-taki-kraj-ktory-nie-ma-lewicy/
-- THERE WAS NO CAMPAIGN, ONLY MORAWIECKI'S MURDEROUS ACTIVITY - KRZYSZTOF ŁAPIŃSKI IN AN INTERVIEW WITH ŁUKASZ PAWŁOWSKI IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “There was no real campaign, only the prime minister's murderous activity, significant activity from President Kaczyński, and Patryk Jaki's hard work in Warsaw. Nothing beyond that. Diagnosis, strategy formulation, and sticking to it until the end. Neither PiS nor Civic Platform conducted a campaign understood in this way. These were moves from one extreme to another – in PiS's case, based on the prime minister's activity, who was 'worn out.'”
-- ŁAPIŃSKI ON THE POLITICAL OLYMPICS: “The political Olympics, held once every four years, meaning parliamentary elections. Everything an athlete does – European championships, world championships, meets – is organized with the Olympics in mind, because they must win them. The political Olympics are in 2019, and everything PiS does before then should not be a fight for survival, but an element of preparation. It is not of great importance to PiS in how many regional assemblies it wins, but in how many it will govern, whether independently or in some coalition. Then it will matter whether, colloquially speaking, one has 5, 7, or 14 regional assemblies. Local government elections are important, but not the most important. They provide an opportunity to expand power, to test how the party's electoral machinery works, how the structures function, how individual heads of structures engage. However, in terms of scale of importance, they are not as important as parliamentary elections.”
-- MORAWIECKI SAVED THIS CAMPAIGN FOR PIS - ŁAPIŃSKI CONTINUES IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, with his hard work and activity, saved this campaign for PiS. I read somewhere that he held 170 election meetings, and he still had to perform his prime ministerial duties, attend Council of Ministers meetings, participate in EU summits, etc. Please note how strong and unambiguous support President Kaczyński gave the prime minister regarding the 'tapes' issue.”
-- PIS ELECTORATE ACCEPTED MORAWIECKI - ŁAPIŃSKI CONTINUES IN KULTURA LIBERALNA: “Not when a given politician is still effective and needed. Besides, one cannot have any complaints about the prime minister. He is loyal, hardworking, and has also become the target of attacks from the other side. This legitimizes him. It is known that he is 'ours.' The electorate of Law and Justice has accepted Mateusz Morawiecki in the role of prime minister and stood behind him. People voting for PiS say about him: 'our prime minister.' https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2018/10/23/krzysztof-lapinski-wywiad-wybory-samorzodowe-pis/
-- WILL PIS ATTACK THE MEDIA - LUDWIK DORN in GAZETA WYBORCZA: “What is the possible second solution? For a long time, editors of PiS's 'spitters' have been suggesting it – an attack on media hostile to the 'good change,' i.e., a new media law called 'deconcentration' by PiS. One of the reliable Karnowski brothers sees the reasons for defeat in the fact that 'full mobilization of the opposition and its media can significantly reduce support for PiS, and in the last, crucial period of the campaign.' And the other brother adds: 'The narrative and propaganda machine of the Third Polish Republic has regained strength. Tremendous strength, capable of imposing a total message, organizing any provocations and witch hunts. Can anything still be changed today? Certainly, if one doesn't try, it will be bad.' So what will PiS do? What awaits us? Either the opening of another front, or a lack of decision, which is also a decision, usually a bad one.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24079183,dylemat-wladzy-po-wyborach-odpuscic-czy-spacyfikowac-media.html
-- PYRRHIC VICTORY WORRIES PIS LEADERSHIP - Agata Kondzińska on the front page of Gazeta Wyborcza: “– There is a fear that the local government election results may be repeated in the parliamentary ones – a Kaczyński advisor tells me at the end. – If everyone unites against PiS again, we will win, but we will not gain power. We need to start calming down, closing fronts. But I admit that our camp is divided on this matter.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24079321,pyrrusowe-zwyciestwo-niepokoi-wladze-pis-rozliczenia-po-drugiej.html
-- KATARZYNA KOLENDA-ZALESKA: WHAT CANNONS WILL THEY UNLEASH AFTER THIS DEFEAT? - writes in Gazeta Wyborcza: “All this shows that PiS's previously perfect campaign skills have clearly faltered. They overstepped. Patryk Jaki, in particular, overstepped. And the end of the campaign was a total catastrophe. The ad about refugees and the shameful references to the Warsaw Uprising doomed both the candidate and PiS. Even in campaigning, there are boundaries and sacred things whose desecration comes at a high price. This is a positive piece of news on the one hand. On the other hand, the rulers will have to unleash other, more powerful cannons to fight for maintaining power. It is frightening to think how far they will want to go.” http://lodz.wyborcza.pl/lodz/7,35136,24076247,wybory-samorzadowe-kto-wygral-wybory-na-prezydentow-i-burmistrzow.html
-- CURIOSITY - INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE SUPPORTED BY PIS IN TOMASZÓW - MARCIN WITKO, WHOM WE SHOWED IN A HOUSE OF CARDS STYLE SPOOF IN SG, WON IN THE 1ST ROUND WITH 65%. http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,24079841,prawo-i-sprawiedliwosc-przejmie-wiekszosc-sejmikow-wojewodzkich.html -- 13 YEARS AGO, in the second round of presidential elections, Lech Kaczyński defeated Donald Tusk, obtaining 54.04% of the votes.-- BIRTHDAYS: Joanna Staręga-Piasek, Magdalena Jethon, Mikołaj Dowgielewicz, Marcin Meller (turning 50), Jerzy Kozdroń, Tomasz Tywonek.
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