-- BIEDROŃ ON VICTORY IN SŁUPSK, PIS LEAD NARROWS IN EXIT POLLS - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/10/22/

-- CITIES SAY NO TO PIS - GW Front Page.

-- PIS FIRST IN REGIONAL ASSEMBLIES, BIG CITIES TO THE OPPOSITION - RZ Front Page.

-- THE OPPOSITION RISES FROM ITS KNEES - Fakt Front Page.

-- TRZASKOWSKI CONQUERED WARSAW - SE Front Page.

-- MICHAŁ DANIELEWSKI ON FB: PIS MADE A PROPAGANDA MISTAKE: “So, PiS garnered the most votes in history in elections for regional assemblies after three years of demolishing the state and pushing Poland to the brink of leaving the EU. It also showed that it is capable (unlike in 2007) of responding to a great mobilization of the opposition's electorate with a mobilization of its own voters. In essence, we are talking about its defeat only because it set the bar high for itself, trying to reclaim several large cities from Civic Platform. If they had simply nominated Karczewski in Warsaw, firstly, no one would have paid attention to that campaign (because it's obvious that Civic Platform wins in the capital, what's there to get excited about), and secondly, we would be discussing the Civic Coalition's weak result. So PiS made a propaganda mistake. But nothing more, my dear friends, nothing more.”

-- THE RESULT DOES NOT GUARANTEE THAT PIS WILL BE ABLE TO FORM A MAJORITY GOVERNMENT NEXT YEAR - GRZEGORZ OSIECKI IN DGP: “PiS won in 9 regional assemblies, but it is unknown in how many it will govern. Secondly, 32 percent obtained nationwide is the best result in the history of a local election leader. PiS also showed that it reigns supreme on the right side of the political scene. National lists did not gain significant support. However, PiS's result is only about a 7 percentage point lead over Civic Platform, its main political rival. It confirms its leading position but does not guarantee that PiS will be able to defend it next year in parliamentary elections at a level that would not only secure a majority government again, which seems doubtful today, but also form a coalition government.”

-- THE CIVIC COALITION'S RESULT IS SCHETYNA'S CAPITAL, BUT THESE ARE NOT RATINGS THAT RADICALLY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF TAKING POWER FROM PIS - Osiecki continues: “In turn, 24 percent support for Civic Platform, or rather the Civic Coalition, nationwide, is a decent result, and very good, especially in large cities. It shows that the party has a stable electorate, the coalition has solidified, and anti-PiS voters are looking for groups that will strive to remove Jarosław Kaczyński's party from power. This is Grzegorz Schetyna's capital. However, it is still not ratings that would radically increase the chances of taking power from PiS.” http://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykuly/583651,wybory-samorzadowe-pis-ko-po-opinia.html

-- A SECOND TERM IS NOT CERTAIN, NO SILENT MAJORITY HAS EMERGED - PIOTR SKWIECIŃSKI: “Let's perhaps start not with what happened, but with what didn't happen. Two things that the ruling camp counted on did not occur, and both define the new political situation. Some people from the ruling camp expected that these elections would bring a breakthrough, or at least a clear deepening of the trend from 2015. That the alleged pro-PiS silent majority would speak up, that the beneficiaries of the 500+ program, who had not voted before, would vote en masse, and that this would long establish a new balance favorable to the ruling party. Nothing like that happened, no silent majority emerged, and PiS did not gain the status of a permanently majority party.

-- SKWIECIŃSKI ON THE ANTAGONIZATION OF MANY ENVIRONMENTS: “But this policy, it seems, has exhausted its possibilities. This puts the rulers in an unenviable situation. The degree of antagonization of non-PiS circles, achieved over the last three years, makes any return to the conventional year 2015 and the neutralization of various groups that could have been neutralized then, impossible.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/417639-druga-kadencja-nie-jest-oczywista

-- JACEK KARNOWSKI WRITES THAT PIS SHOULD NOT COURT METROPOLISES: “There's no point crying over it, but lessons must be drawn. For instance, since the inhabitants of metropolises (15% of Poles) cannot be counted on, one should take special care of voters from smaller cities and towns. They should be spoken to primarily, cared for, and courted, not only in material terms but also in terms of values. Because the attempt to convince even some of the big-city 'lemmings' to the camp of good change simply failed, and at the same time cost something, not so much materially as in terms of messaging.”

-- KARNOWSKI WRITES ABOUT THE FULL MOBILIZATION OF THE OPPOSITION AND ITS MEDIA: “We saw that the full mobilization of the opposition and its media is capable of significantly reducing support for PiS, even in the final, crucial period of the campaign. We saw an efficient machine that knows how to produce half-truths, quarter-truths, and whole 'fakes,' and then broadcast them across the country. We saw a camp capable of imposing slogans and topics, with relative helplessness from the ruling team. And even the impressive activity of the main faces of the campaign – Prime Minister Morawiecki and Patryk Jaki – proved to be no effective panacea. If nothing changes, winning the elections next year will be very difficult.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/417637-wynik-pis-mniej-niepokojacy-niz-ostatnia-prosta-kampanii

-- DR JAROSŁAW FLIS STATES THAT PIS FELL INTO ITS OWN TRAP: “Local elections are much less polarized than national ones, and if you have 40% support in nationwide polls, it doesn't mean you'll get that 40% in regional assembly elections. PiS fell into its own trap by turning these elections into a plebiscite of support for the ruling party. Of course, one needs to flex muscles to mobilize the electorate, but then expectations also grow, and something can go wrong. This is particularly evident in large cities, where it was much easier to mobilize people against PiS.” https://www.newsweek.pl/polska/jaroslaw-flis-pis-wpadl-we-wlasna-pulapke/jn41mr6

-- PIS IS PUTTING ON A BRAVE FACE FOR A BAD SITUATION - ANDRZEJ STANKIEWICZ ON PIS BELIEVING THE POLLS: “Looking purely arithmetically, the results are a success for PiS. Four years ago, the party narrowly won the local elections (27%), but in the 2015 parliamentary elections, it secured almost 38% of the votes. And it was the parliamentary election result that served as a benchmark for PiS. So when the PiS leader today announces his party's success ('we are concluding the elections with a result that bodes well for the future'), he is putting on a brave face for a bad situation. Because PiS believed in polls giving the party over 40% support. They believed for a very long time, almost until the last days. Because at the end of the campaign, rumors of PiS's polling difficulties appeared – they were validated by the sudden radicalization of the campaign, including an attempt to reignite anti-immigrant sentiments and a brutal attack on the Polish People's Party (PSL).” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/wybory-samorzadowe/wybory-samorzadowe-andrzej-stankiewicz-komentarz/p4f4c0t

-- THE APPETITES WERE BIGGER - MARCIN FIJOŁEK: “Law and Justice can be pleased, as they won the elections with a quite good result (almost the best in history for local elections, only AWS was better), but there are no reasons for euphoria, triumphalism, or excitement. I observed this election night from the PiS headquarters at Nowogrodzka Street, and moderate satisfaction prevailed there. PiS knows that a real 'showdown' in these elections will require waiting for the results of individual regional assemblies to say whether the current standing (one assembly in Podkarpacie) will be expanded by a few more. However, the appetites were certainly bigger. The Polish People's Party was not crushed (although slightly nibbled compared to the 2014 elections), they did not hit the electoral jackpot.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/417621-po-exit-poll-wszyscy-wygrali-wszyscy-liczyli-na-wiecej

-- THERE ARE NO CLEAR WINNERS AND NO CLEAR LOSERS: “It is difficult to speak of clear winners and clear losers in these elections. Law and Justice obtained a result 5 percentage points better than in the regional assembly elections in 2014 and 5 percentage points weaker than in the 2015 parliamentary elections. The Civic Coalition gained 2 percentage points less support than Civic Platform did four years ago and 7 percentage points less than in the 2015 elections, when Civic Platform and Modern Poland ran separately.” https://klubjagiellonski.pl/2018/10/22/panstwo-wciaz-z-kartonu-pis-jednak-nie-z-teflonu-wybory-w-19-punktach/

-- THESE ELECTIONS CANNOT BE SUMMARIZED AS A PIS DEFEAT AND AN OPPOSITION VICTORY - RAFAŁ HIRSCH: "The first polls published after the vote's conclusion suggest that while PiS suffered a crushing defeat in Warsaw, it achieved a very good result in the regional assemblies. Importantly: this result is better than 4 years ago. In contrast, the Civic Coalition received significantly fewer votes than Civic Platform did last time. This means that despite the sensation in the most closely watched elections in Warsaw, these elections cannot be summarized as a PiS defeat and an opposition victory. The picture is more complex.

-- HIRSCH ON PIS ENTERING A PERIOD OF GREATER NERVOUSNESS: “PiS's result is slightly better than 4 years ago, but there will be no political benefit from it for this party. What's more: it may now enter a period of greater nervousness associated, first, with settling accounts for unfulfilled expectations and, second, with a new perspective regarding future elections. It may turn out that members of this party will now start assuming that in the next elections, PiS will get fewer mandates than they previously expected. This could lead to a more intense fight for good positions on the electoral lists. To win this fight, the party leader's favor is necessary, so I expect we will see more and more embarrassing attempts to ingratiate themselves with the leader, for example, through various memorial plaques, just as they tried to do in August on the occasion of the anniversary of the strikes at the Gdańsk Shipyard.”

-- HIRSCH ON THE WEAKNESS OF THE OPPOSITION, WHICH IS NOT TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE OPPORTUNITY RELATED TO PIS'S WEAKNESS: “This weakness concerns me much more than PiS's weakness after these elections, as a result of unmet expectations, and the weakness of the opposition, which will not be able to seize the opportunity related to PiS's weakness.” https://forsal.pl/amp/1312637,hirsch-slabosc-opozycji-w-sejmikach-porazka-pis-w-duzych-miastach.html

-- ANNA GIELEWSKA ON KACZYŃSKI MAINTAINING MORAWIECKI'S ANOINTMENT: “This campaign will end in May 2020 – he emphasized. He also unequivocally upheld the most important political decision – the anointing of Mateusz Morawiecki as the future leader of the entire camp. This was so that no one in his party would even think of holding the head of government responsible for the election results. He also immediately set the narrative, announcing that the key to future victories is to ensure that before the elections, 'we are not suddenly hit by blows, that there are fewer fake news, that every Pole knows that during these 4 years under PiS rule, Poland has moved forward.' Between the lines, the old melody can be heard – the media and insufficient mobilization in the fight for the narrative will be to blame. However, the PiS leader now faces a fundamental dilemma: what course to take for the next dozen or so months – tighten the screws, shift to the center and 'soft' again in the campaign, or perhaps try to play on two pianos. The result of the local elections does not help resolve this dilemma for the leader.” https://www.wprost.pl/wybory-samorzadowe-2018/10162695/trzaskowski-kosiniak-morawiecki-czyli-jaka-idzie-zmiana.html

-- TOMASZ SAWCZUK WRITES IN KULTURA LIBERALNA THAT PIS CAN STRENGTHEN ITS POSITION: “On the other hand, if the opposition does not offer a more attractive proposition in the future, PiS may strengthen its position over time. After all, the support for the Civic Coalition does not make a good impression in this context. Three years after the last elections and despite running together with Modern Poland, the main opposition force's result can be described as decent at best. The Civic Coalition won in large cities and narrowly beat PiS in medium-sized ones (50–200 thousand inhabitants) as well. At the same time, the Civic Coalition only won in the 30-39 age group. Disturbingly, it achieved a weak result (18 percent) in the 18-29 age group, where the Kukiz '15 committee performed disproportionately well (9 percent, which is twice as much as in all groups combined). PiS lost in large cities, but not necessarily to the Civic Coalition; in many cases, these were local committees or local veterans who have governed the city for many years and started from a strong position.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2018/10/22/sawczuk-wybory-samorzadowe-komentarz/

-- MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI WRITES THAT THIS IS NOT ENOUGH FOR CIVIC PLATFORM: “Polarization serves the Civic Coalition in big cities, but that's not enough for victory in 2019. Its result 'ceiling' still seems too low to defeat Law and Justice, and no one is seriously counting on a repeat of the PSL's result next year. Rafał Trzaskowski and his 54 percent will be a good alibi for Schetyna ('I'm on the right track'), but certainly not a premise for a course correction to the left. President Żuk's result in Lublin suggests rather the opposite direction, i.e., a course of the conservative center, without deviations that are controversial for the 'imagined urban dweller.'” http://krytykapolityczna.pl/kraj/sutowski-wybory-samorzadowe-2018/

-- ALEKSANDRA PAWLICKA ON MORAWIECKI'S ANOINTMENT: “On the PiS side, these elections also resulted in the anointing of a dauphin. Jarosław Kaczyński left no shadow of a doubt whose merit it was that PiS won the regional assemblies. For the leader, Mateusz Morawiecki is the face of the victory. And, analogously, Kaczyński's silence regarding Patryk Jaki and his masterful defeat in Warsaw is tantamount to pronouncing sentence on him. Jaki no longer exists in the reshuffles at Nowogrodzka.” https://www.newsweek.pl/opinie/trzaskowski-i-morawiecki-oto-najwieksi-zwyciezcy-wyborow-samorzadowych/lb5sp3q

-- DR RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK ON PIS'S WRONG STRATEGY TOWARDS PSL - says to Wiktor Ferfecki in RZ: “PiS's problem is that instead of repeating the maneuver with Zbigniew Kuźmiuk or Janusz Wojciechowski, i.e., creating a platform for dialogue, exploiting the weaknesses of some PSL activists, it chose a strategy of clear confrontation. This failed. Going for complete discrediting of the PSL backfired and caused the agrarian party to run independently in the parliamentary elections, unless some catastrophe happens in the European elections.”

-- THESES ABOUT THE CRISIS OF CIVIC PLATFORM ARE OUTDATED - Chwedoruk continues: “He became the leader of a party that seemed to be dying, burdened by eight years of rule, internally conflicted, with competition from Modern Poland. And this party repeated its result from the last local elections, consolidated itself, got rid of competition, and if we add the votes for PSL and SLD, it turns out that a coalition counted this way could get more votes than PiS with Kukiz'15. This means that the theses about the opposition's crisis are outdated. All of this also means that politics is ceasing to be a one-man show, which PiS has been until now.” https://www.rp.pl/Polityka/181029880-Prof-Rafal-Chwedoruk-Prawdziwym-zwyciezca-jest-Grzegorz-Schetyna.html

-- THEY WON, BUT THEY LOST - Jarosław Kurski in GW: “Today, the democratic camp, despite all its weaknesses and dispersed leadership, has a reason to rejoice – it's a good start to victories in the next elections. This must not be wasted. Let the leaders of the democratic parties sign a blood pact that they will act together, that they will not disperse, i.e., waste, our votes any longer.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75398,24075350,wygrali-ale-przegrali-pis-wladzy-nad-samorzadami-nie-zdobedzie.html

-- YOU ARE HANDING OVER POWER TO THE RIGHT - Krzysztof Pacewicz in GW: “If these 2-3 million Polish women and men could vote for a broad social democratic coalition – from the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), through Biedroń and Nowacka, to Razem and the Greens – it would become one of the main forces in politics. Without it, it would be difficult to form a majority in parliament and local governments. From the coalition partners, it would be possible to force the implementation of at least some left-wing and progressive postulates regarding labor rights, women's rights, or sexual minorities, and also to guarantee a pro-European direction in Polish foreign policy. Poland could begin to catch up with Europe not only in terms of GDP growth but also through egalitarian social policy.” http://wyborcza.pl/7,75968,24076713,frajerska-porazka-rozdrobnionej-lewicy.html

-- 15TH ANNIVERSARY OF FAKT.

-- BIRTHDAYS: Janusz Rolicki, Marek Krząkała, Anna Plakwicz, Marek Rząsowski, Jarosław Skorupa.