state of play: 10/19/2018
-- LAST DAY OF CAMPAIGN ON 300POLITYKA LIVE BLOG: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/10/19/
-- 300POLITYKA AND WIRTUALNA POLSKA BEHIND THE SCENES OF THE EU SUMMIT: https://300polityka.pl/news/2018/10/19/polska-widziana-w-nieformalnych-stosunkach-przywodcow-europejskich-pozostaje-w-centrum-unii-300polityka-i-wirtualna-polska-za-zamknietymi-drzwiami-brukselskiego-szczytu/
-- LECH KACZYŃSKI, WHO WON IN WARSAW, WAS NOT LIKE TODAY'S PIS - PIOTR ZAREMBA IN DGP: “Except that Kaczyński represented a different right-wing than the current one. He was a professor with rather moderate views on civilization matters, speaking a language understandable to many aspiring to the middle class. Today, party propaganda has made him a 'national-Catholic idol'. He was not like that. One can argue that what seemed good for Warsaw was not necessarily attractive for Poland. In those times, PiS convinced a dozen or so percent of Poles. Today, less palatable to city dwellers, it has taken over the spiritual leadership of the country. The influence of this formation is not as overwhelming as the propagandists claim, but sufficient to rule. A trade-off.”
-- UNTIL THE OPPOSITION PROCESSES THIS, IT WILL REMAIN STUCK - ZAREMBA CONTINUES: “It would be advisable for both sides to maintain a cool head, even if the fears of those in power elbowing their way through were not abstract. I am not a follower of the thesis of the infallibility of Poles. And yet, it is hard to resist the impression that, per saldo, this economic cycle served social balance and sometimes even sensible decisions. In 1994, during a seminar in Pułtusk, the now-forgotten Solidarity politician Wojciech Arkuszewski shocked his colleagues by saying that the victors from SLD knew something about Poles 'that we don't know'. Today, the same can be said about the victors from PiS. Until the opposition processes this, it will remain stuck. Let us remember, by the way, that the most powerful camp is capable of realizing only a small part of its intentions.”
-- ZAREMBA REVEALS HE WILL VOTE FOR ŚPIEWAK: “For the first time in my life, I am revealing my electoral decision. In Warsaw, I will vote for the left-wing local government activist Jan Śpiewak, although I am somewhat amused by the declarations of a 'secular Warsaw', and I would not entrust the governance of the country to his supporters from the Together party. But he was someone who, very early on and still feeling the risk, challenged the reprivatization mafia. His opinions on Warsaw's spatial policy often align with mine. This is also a gesture directed against political parties. Although I am aware that in the second round, one will have to trust one of them. I will do so, guided by the principle of the lesser evil, which may mean some benefit for the city.”
-- PRIME MINISTER MORAWIECKI IN A CONVERSATION WITH PIOTR ZAREMBA AND PAWEŁ SIENNICKI IN PTT ABOUT OLKUSZ BEING AS IMPORTANT AS CRACOW: “Cracow or Wrocław do not differ much from the average Spanish or French city anymore. And we are talking about modernization, about the standard of living in this part of Poland, which remains more neglected. Olkusz is as important as Cracow, and Łuków is as important as Lublin. Economic development must translate into a real improvement in people's quality of life, and that was lacking in the first 25 years of free Poland.”
-- PMM STATES THAT LOCAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED: “And do you gentlemen know how much PIT and CIT revenues for voivodeship local governments increased under PO-PSL? 142 million, 16 times less than ours in just three years. Is there a difference? At the national level, thanks to tightening tax collection, we can spend large sums on social policy, and in eradicating child poverty, we have surpassed some countries of the old Union.”
-- MORAWIECKI ON 170 MEETINGS - IT WAS A BOOK OF HOPE FOR POLES IN 2018: “No, although political struggle for big cities is more difficult for us, that is true. But I have been to every voivodeship capital in the last few months, at least twice. At the same time, people in smaller towns often haven't seen national political leaders for years. I visited about 170 places in total. These meetings gave me a lot, as it was a kind of book of expectations and hopes of Poles Anno Domini 2018.”
-- MORAWIECKI ON THE TAPES: WHAT IS THE ALLEGED SENSATION? “I agree that this should have been explained a long time ago. End of story. But what are we talking about, what is this alleged sensation? My statements were published once before, 'Newsweek' devoted several pages to them. Now it's being reheated. This shows the dangerous power of mainstream media for the state in creating a new reality. I regret certain words, especially the curses. I point out that we are talking about alleged revelations published two and a half years ago. Nobody was interested then, even though I was already Deputy Prime Minister. Pulling individual sentences out of context turns a molehill into a mountain.”
-- GREECE WAS SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN, BUT POLAND'S RATING WAS RAISED - MORAWIECKI CONTINUES IN PTT: “They thought in old categories and therefore, in the face of our ambitious social projects, they predicted bankruptcy, a second Greece. They measured us by their own standards. But surprise... just last week our rating was raised. The second great success is also the state's self-direction in foreign policy. Take Polish-Israeli relations. The joint declaration with the Prime Minister of Israel showed that we were able to achieve something unprecedented, the restoration of the honor of our ancestors.”
-- MORAWIECKI ON REGAINING CONTROL: “Now it's about 30 percent. Do you see the difference? This is also an element of Poland regaining control – more and more autonomy in development policy. And additionally. If we spend 2 percent of GDP on defense policy, and another country spends 1 percent, and that country has a zero deficit while we have a 1 percent deficit, then who is more honestly fulfilling the obligations related to the NATO Alliance? This means that comparing 'apples to apples', we could very easily have a budget surplus.”
-- MORAWIECKI: MORE RESTRAINT IS NEEDED ON OUR SIDE TOO: “There's never too much humility. More restraint is needed on our side too. I would certainly prefer to debate with the opposition on ideas, projects, and visions for the country's development. The world will pose increasingly more challenges to us, and the most important thing is that we have our Polish answers prepared for them.”
-- PLATFORM IS FLATTERING THE CARICATURE OF A RIGHT-WING VOTER - ADAM OSTOLSKI OF THE GREENS IN CONVERSATION WITH MICHAŁ SUTOWSKI AND DAWID KRAWCZYK IN KRYTYKA: “Civic Platform's goal is not to win elections, but to be the undisputed largest force in the opposition. Their enemy is not PiS at all, but rather anyone who could threaten its dominant role on the opposition side of the barricade.”
-- WARSAW TO THE LEFT - JAKUB MAJMUREK IN KRYTYKA: “On the other hand, a vote for Trzaskowski in the first round is somewhat a political capitulation to the dividing duopoly in Poland and the logic that for PiS the only alternative is PO. Do we really want to steer clear of it out of fear of Patryk Jaki? All residents of Warsaw will face a difficult decision the day after tomorrow.”
-- KRYTYKA'S EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, AGNIESZKA WIŚNIEWSKA, IS HAPPY ABOUT THE POLITICIZATION OF THE DEBATE:“I am very happy to have met and continue to meet people who – as they themselves sometimes say – have undergone a process of politicization. We have politicized the social debate, activated ourselves and others, engaged locally and nationally – some of us decided to work in the media, others in academia, some went to public institutions, others to parties. Today, I see many of you on electoral lists.”
-- SCHETYNA DID NOT AGREE TO A 24-HOUR REPORTAGE, WHICH MORAWIECKI AGREED TO - WP: “We were denied this in recent days by Grzegorz Schetyna. Before the elections, we offered both him and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki that for 24 hours, reporters and camera operators from Wirtualna Polska would accompany them. The idea was to show the work of leading politicians from the largest parties in Poland from behind the scenes. Despite having a lot on his plate as the head of the Polish government, Mateusz Morawiecki agreed, and you can see the results of this cooperation. Grzegorz Schetyna refused. This is also somewhat surprising. As research shows, in September alone, Wirtualna Polska Group had over 21 million users, surpassing even Facebook in this regard. Is that not enough for the PO leader?”
-- MARCIN FIJOŁEK POSES THE THESIS OF A CAMPAIGN RESET AND NOT OVERLY RELIABLE POLLS: “I have a small, working thesis that since 2015 and the political reset, campaigns have ended in their previous categories. Neither are polls overly reliable (even institute employees – at both the regional assembly and city levels – are aware of a significant margin of error), nor are the tools for conducting campaigns used so far 100% effective (debates, conventions, tweetups, social media battles). These are different battles than before, although not everyone has adapted to the new conditions yet. Few people even want to acknowledge them, as it would require a certain reset in thinking about campaigns and elections in general. But there will be time for a broader reflection when we learn the election results on Sunday evening.”
-- FIJOŁEK ON THE CAMPAIGN BASED ON MORAWIECKI AND JAKI: “The ruling camp has navigated this minefield quite skillfully. The campaign was based on two politicians: Mateusz Morawiecki (for the regional assemblies race) and Patryk Jaki (because Warsaw is, inevitably, an important reference point). And they managed; no doubt about it. On Sunday evening, everyone will probably declare success: Platforma because it will defend at least a few large cities, PiS because it will recapture at least a few regional assemblies, and others because they will stay afloat or finally catch their breath like SLD. Seriously threatened are PSL and Kukiz'15 (for various reasons), but an earthquake is unlikely. At most, serious trouble for both of them.”
-- BAD NEWS FOR ZDANOWSKA, COURTS STRICTLY DEAL WITH LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AFTER VERDICTS - WP: “Hanna Zdanowska's career as the mayor of Łódź may last less than a year. That is how long the procedure to revoke her mandate takes after a conviction, and so far, administrative courts have been ruthless. We have looked into dozens of similar cases.”
-- DR RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK ON RMF ABOUT JAKI AND WASSERMANN DEEPENING THE ELECTORATE: “- I think the ruling camp – Małgorzata Wassermann and Patryk Jaki. Not because they will win the elections, because that is not very realistic, but because – as polls show so far – they have managed to deepen the trend of internal differentiation of the Law and Justice electorate. (...) The Law and Justice electorate had been structured for years such that the highest support was for the oldest voters, less educated, living in rural areas and small towns. This has started to change, but the group where PiS and Andrzej Duda as a presidential candidate had the most difficulty was the 30-44 generation living in cities. It is very clearly visible that in order to achieve such percentage points as Mr. Wassermann in Krakow and here (in Warsaw – ed.) Mr. Jaki have, they had to reach those who were furthest from the right.”
-- FOUR REGIONAL ASSEMBLIES WOULD BE A SUCCESS FOR PIS - CHWEDORUK CONTINUES: “We have one question regarding the regional assemblies. In how many regional assemblies will PiS manage to win independently. It can be expected that these will almost certainly be the Podkarpackie and Lubelskie assemblies, and PiS has huge chances in the Świętokrzyskie and Podlaskie voivodeships. Anything beyond these four, even in a coalition arrangement, would be a significant success for PiS.”
-- PROF. DUDEK TELLS INTERIA WHAT WILL BE A SUCCESS FOR PIS: “Power in the regional assemblies east of the Vistula, i.e., along the entire eastern border. Eastern Poland is PiS's strategic goal.”
-- DUDEK ON PIS POSING AS DEFENDERS OF SMALL TOWNS: “These are extremely important elections for PSL and for what will happen next in rural Poland. If PSL disappears, then rural voters would have no alternative to Kaczyński's party for many years. Besides, the division between the Poland of big cities and small towns, which has always existed, will become sharper, because PiS has taken this under its banner and presents itself as the defender of small towns. This brings results, although the real verification will, of course, only come in the course of the next three election campaigns.”
-- GAZETA WYBORCZA ON THE FRONT PAGE ABOUT “DEVELOPER KACZYŃSKI”: “From the documents at 'Wyborcza's' disposal, it appears that on February 2, 2018, the Institute's council gives consent 'to undertake by the Foundation's management board activities related to the implementation of a development project by the company Srebrna'. Srebrna is to contribute 5.4 thousand sq m. of land with a former boiler factory (it had previously obtained permission for its demolition, as it is a historic building) and 350 thousand PLN to start the business.”
-- BARTOSZ T. WIELIŃSKI ON “RACIST ADS BY PIS AND JAKI” - writes in GW: “PiS politicians protested loudly a few days ago against Grzegorz Schetyna's words comparing their party to locusts. However, they themselves do not hesitate to use methods reminiscent of Nazi propaganda sheets.”
-- DOMINIKA WIELOWIEYSKA WRITES THAT POLEXIT MAY HAPPEN: “PiS is trying to reduce support for the Union because it wants to take over more state institutions without hindrance, which by definition should be independent of the rulers. But by making Europeans disgusting to Poles, Jarosław Kaczyński's party is initiating a mechanism that it will not be able to stop later. The lie about the European Union will continue and grow like an avalanche, further supported by Vladimir Putin's propaganda present online. It will not end like in the case of Great Britain. It will end much worse, because we simply cannot afford such games – like the British ones – both economically and geopolitically.”
-- MONIKA OLEJNIK ON THE DISGUSTING AD - writes in GW: “In 2015, Jarosław Kaczyński said that refugees would bring us protozoa, cholera, and other diseases that do not harm them, but do harm us Poles. This time, before the elections, PiS released a disgusting, xenophobic spot.”
-- BIRTHDAYS: Beata Mazurek, Mariusz Gierszewski. On election Sunday, Jacek Nizinkiewicz celebrates his birthday!
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