state of play: 10/09/2018

STATE OF PLAY: Chwedoruk: Tapes have zero impact, nothing symbolic emerged; Onet poll: Duda gained after USA, Morawiecki didn't lose

Łukasz Mężyk

-- MAZUREK ON THE SUPREME COURT AND PUBLICATION OF INVESTIGATION FILES - 300LIVE: https://300polityka.pl/live/2018/10/09/

-- TAPES HAVE NEAR-ZERO IMPACT - DR RAFAŁ CHWEDORUK IN SE: “Firstly, the disclosure that Mateusz Morawiecki met with PO politicians was not a surprise, as it was known before. Secondly, revealing them at a time of high PiS approval ratings, good economic conditions, and shifts within the opposition makes their impact close to zero. It would be different if these tapes saw the light of day against the backdrop of a weak economy, which citizens felt directly, and declining PiS ratings. Then they might have had a much greater impact and influenced even the government party's voters. They might have seen them as the reason why things weren't as good as they used to be.”

-- NOTHING HAS EMERGED THAT COULD GROW TO SYMBOLIC STATUS - CHWEDORUK CONTINUES: “What surprises me most is the fact that someone came up with the idea to release this kind of information now, in the context of an election, effectively burning it for the future. For this reason, PiS politicians can be pleased, as the losses they will incur will be minimal. Nothing was said that could grow to symbolic status. Not even on the scale of the famous story with Mr. Misiewicz.” https://www.se.pl/wiadomosci/polityka/prof-rafal-chwedoruk-dzis-sila-razenia-tasm-jest-rowna-zeru-aa-K11P-1ZHz-ZqnX.html

-- IN THE ONET TRUST POLL: DUDA GAINED AFTER USA, MORAWIECKI DIDN'T LOSE, TRZASKOWSKI HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RECOGNITION THAN JAKI: “It seems that the meeting with Donald Trump in the USA clearly helped Andrzej Duda, regardless of the criticism. Despite recent not-so-favorable events and the burden of the election campaign, Mateusz Morawiecki can also be pleased with the poll results. The survey also included the level of trust in the main rivals for the presidency of Warsaw – Patryk Jaki and Rafał Trzaskowski. And while their trust levels are quite similar, it turns out that Trzaskowski has much lower recognition.” https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/tylko-w-onecie/sondaz-zaufania-do-osob-publicznych-pazdziernik-2018/rddctq7

-- SO FAR, POLAND HAS COMPLIED WITH CJEU RULINGS, THERE ARE NO GROUNDS TO CLAIM IT WILL BE DIFFERENT - JACEK CZAPUTOWICZ IN CONVERSATION WITH DGP: “It is difficult to say whether the EC's proposals for provisional measures will be taken into account by the court, which decides this matter unilaterally. We will use the opportunity to present our position. So far, Poland has complied with CJEU rulings, for example, in the case of the Białowieża Forest logging, so there are no grounds to claim that it will be different now.”

-- CZAPUTOWICZ ON DOUBLE STANDARDS IN THE EU: “We have complied with the CJEU's expectations. We had reasons to continue logging – we wanted to stop the bark beetle's expansion. Now we hear that in a similar situation in Germany, logging was deemed the proper means of protection. This deepens the feeling that Poland is treated differently, that double standards are applied. The same applies to the reform of the judiciary. Some of our solutions are criticized, yet they function in other countries.”

-- CZAPUTOWICZ HYPOTHETICALLY, THAT A SOLUTION WILL NEED TO BE FOUND IF THE CJEU RULING IS UNFAVORABLE: “Perhaps a solution will need to be found regarding the continued service of judges who have retired at the age of 65. I think some of the judges who did not apply for continued service wanted to take advantage of early retirement. Others might have had health reasons preventing them. Still others might have been close to seventy, so they would have retired anyway. Some submitted requests for an extension of service and received the president's consent. So, everything depends on the individual case. We will have to consider with the Commission how to implement the individual elements of any potential ruling. It is worth adding that in a situation similar to the current one in Poland, the European Court of Human Rights ruled in 1998. At that time, it was simply accepted that the retirement age could be shortened during a term of office. Countries at that time shortened the terms of judges without any resistance, and some replaced them. Today, these countries are lecturing Poland that this is contrary to European standards.” http://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/opinie/artykuly/582776,czaputowicz-msz-sedziowie-tsue-sn-poliyka-zagraniczna-kozlowska.html

-- MARCIN FIJOŁEK ASKS ABOUT PROSECUTORIAL CHARGES FOR HGW: “What next? Firstly, it needs to be verified whether the prosecution's findings and charges can withstand court scrutiny. The most catchy slogans about the 'biggest bribe in history' will remain merely rhetorical if they don't translate into convictions for the sharks of wild reprivatization in the capital. And one more thing – these billions of zlotys in losses and tens of millions of zlotys in bribes represent the indirect and direct responsibility of the city's mayor, Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz. Jan Śpiewak rightly points out that charges against this lady are a natural and logical consequence of the hitherto findings of investigations and special services. Indeed, an indictment in such a sensitive case must be prepared with the utmost professionalism and be free from grounds for attacks suggesting the prosecution's political bias. However, the clock is ticking – there would be no green light for people like Jakub R. or the top figures of Warsaw's legal circles (Robert N.) if not for the helplessness (at best) or intentional consent from the city's mayor. This should also finally be reflected in the prosecution's actions.” https://wpolityce.pl/m/polityka/415601-prokuratura-i-kw-panstwo-potrafi-byc-nieteoretyczne

-- PROF. DUDEK BELIEVES TRZASKOWSKI WILL WIN IN THE 2ND ROUND BUT WOULDN'T BET ON IT: “A defeat in the capital, a bastion of Platforma and anti-PiS sentiment, would be the end of PO in its current form. A catastrophe for the opposition. This is a less likely scenario – I believe that in the second round, the anti-PiS sentiment of Warsaw residents will be decisive, and Trzaskowski will win. However, I wouldn't bet money on it. Interestingly, Trzaskowski's defeat and Jaki's victory would be a tragedy for PO and the opposition, but not a great success for PiS either.”

-- IF JAKI WON, HE WOULD BECOME ONE OF THE MOST POWERFUL RIGHT-WING POLITICIANS - SAYS DUDEK: “He could surpass both Kaczyński and Ziobro. If Patryk Jaki wins the elections in Warsaw, he will become the most powerful politician on the Polish right. He will be the only one, alongside President Andrzej Duda, representing the camp of 'good change' whom the party leader cannot dismiss. Unlike the head of state, however, he will have not two years of his term, but a full five. He will be able to freely build his own position. In a few years, he could either run for President of the Republic, build his own political camp, or possibly remain in the capital, the governance of which grants enormous power. Power that Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz did not fully utilize. Perhaps fortunately.” https://dorzeczy.pl/kraj/79679/Dudek-Jesli-Jaki-wygra-w-stolicy-Kaczynski-i-Ziobro-nie-beda-mu-potrzebni.html

-- ROBERT MAZUREK ON THE ROLE OF A JOURNALIST - in conversation with Łukasz Pawłowski in Kultura Liberalna: “I would look at it differently. I won't get in the way of a firefighter, and if dramatic things happen, and I see a child in a burning window, I will help. But that's an exception, because the rule is different – when a team of journalists arrives to report on a fire, they don't deal with carrying out furniture, but with describing what's happening there. My role is not to take sides in an ongoing war; my task is to report on that war. I am a journalist, and you are putting me in a situation where I have to explain the obvious.”

-- MAZUREK ON WHY TYGODNIK POWSZECHNY IS GROWING - tells PAWŁOWSKI: “And 'Tygodnik Powszechny' is growing. Not much, but enough to say it's not a statistical error. Do you know why? I have my own theory about this. People who are unfavorable towards this government, but are not hysterical, prefer to read the openly oppositional 'Tygodnik' than Tomasz Lis's organ. The vast majority of weeklies on both sides of the barricade insult the reader's intelligence. They demand herd thinking at the instinctual level.”

-- MAZUREK ON THE FACT THAT WEEKLIES CAN AT MOST BE USED TO FAN ONESELF: “I don't read them, I can at most fan myself with them. I'm very sorry, but I really know, and I could parody what 'Newsweek', 'Sieci', 'DoRzeczy', and 'Polityka' would write on almost any topic. Since I know what they think, why should I give them... I'm sorry, but I don't even know how much a weekly costs now.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2018/10/09/robert-mazurek-pawlowski-media-polityka-wywiad/

-- THE MORE MEDIA BECOME IDENTITY-DRIVEN, THE MORE THEY BECOME REPLICAS OF POLITICIANS - MICHAŁ KRZYMOWSKI tells TOMASZ SAWCZUK in Kultura Liberalna: “I'm increasingly feeling like I'm wasting my time listening to what politicians say. They have a prepared formula for every occasion, and with a few exceptions, they are very predictable. It's a waste of time on this nonsense. The more media become identity-driven, the more they become replicas of those politicians who frequent television studios, and nothing interesting comes from it. If we seriously consider the trend you mentioned – that the most identity-driven titles are starting to lose – then perhaps it's a sign that political divisions will eventually cut across the current ones. Maybe that moment will come. That would be wonderful.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/2018/10/09/krzymowski-sawczuk-wywiad-dziennikarstwo-polityka-media/

-- DO YOU WANT TO CATCH UP WITH THE EU PELOTON? FIRST, DON'T FALL OFF THE TRACK - Michał Sutowski in Krytyka Polityczna: “Meeting current needs (security, development), integrating the EU more closely (and its surroundings, e.g., Norway) in a way that increases its cohesion rather than generating centrifugal forces, and finally building a network of cooperation and potential for the worst hour – all these elements can be found here, even if in varying proportions. The three proposed directions for political action in the coming years are neither a recipe for Poland's salvation nor for saving the EU from disintegration. Nor do they address the 'China issue,' which is increasingly developing in the context of recent statements by the US Vice President. However, these are concrete proposals for the European arena, which even a Eurosceptic PiS government could consider: without losing face and moving us slightly away from the geopolitical abyss.” http://krytykapolityczna.pl/swiat/ue/chcesz-dogonic-unijny-peleton-najpierw-nie-wylec-z-trasy/

-- TOMASZ BIELECKI IN POLITYKA ON PMM'S WORDS ABOUT EU FUNDS: “But the EU is not just a club of altruists, or at least it's not often such a club. Until recently, Poland was the main advocate of cohesion policy. And Polish achievements, including the 'absorption' of funds, which was considered – even exaggeratedly – exemplary, provided perhaps the most important political argument in Brussels for maintaining a substantial EU budget for the countries of the younger part of the Union. The problem is that now, instead of trumpeting the success of these funds, the Polish authorities are traveling around the country, talking – again, untruthfully – about the great threats of losing funds for certain regions (governed by PO-PSL). And Morawiecki chats about pavements... This is read and heard outside Poland, and it will backfire. It will be used by Poland's non-altruistic rivals in the fight for thicker budget envelopes after 2020. The draft budget for 2021-27 already foresees a 23% reduction in cohesion funds for Poland, although based on Poland's GDP growth, the reduction would be only 11% if the current methodology for distributing funds were maintained. And Morawiecki is currently further undermining Poland's negotiating position.” https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/1766744,1,mateusz-morawiecki-po-raz-kolejny-umniejsza-role-funduszy-ue-w-rozwoju-polski.read

-- PROF. ŁĘTOWSKA ON THE FACT THAT LEAVING THE EU IS PROCEDURALLY EASY - in conversation with prawo.pl: “Well, it turns out that it's not, because in 2010, an amendment was introduced to the 2000 Act on International Agreements, which was quite heavily hidden in the provisions introducing another act – on the coordination of cooperation between the Sejm and the Senate, in connection with membership in the EU. (...) And in these provisions, such a change was included that a simple parliamentary majority plus a relevant notification by the President of any decision is sufficient. This is very dangerous, because it makes the possibility of making a decision on such an important matter dependent on the will of a simple parliamentary majority, which can be a current and temporary matter at some point. It is also politically dangerous because such a parliamentary majority is sometimes formed without regard to the proportions resulting from the election vote. In addition, such majorities are sometimes formed under the influence of various events and emotions, for example, 'they offended us in Brussels' or 'wronged us in Luxembourg.' We had an example of this recently when the European Network of Councils for the Judiciary suspended our National Council of the Judiciary from membership. Immediately, a vote was organized in this body on withdrawing from this organization. It did not pass, but in such situations, sometimes one vote can tip the balance, or someone's absence.” https://www.prawo.pl/prawo/polexit-wystarczy-zwykla-wiekszosc-w-sejmie,309011.html

-- GAZETA POLSKA ON ADAM MICHNIK'S APARTMENTS BOUGHT BY MICHAŁ BOROWSKI: “Renowned architect Michał Borowski reportedly bought several apartments in his name years ago for Adam Michnik. He told the prosecution about these transactions when he was suspected of involvement in a corruption scandal. Investigators suspected the contract was fictitious, but Adam Michnik testified that he had commissioned Borowski to buy the apartments. 'Gazeta Polska' has obtained details of this investigation. The latest issue of 'Gazeta Polska' will feature an article by Dorota Kania titled 'Apartment 'for a straw man' for Adam Michnik.' 'The investigation conducted by the Central Anti-Corruption Bureau revealed agreements concluded by the editor-in-chief of 'Gazeta Wyborcza,' Adam Michnik, and his friend, the well-known architect Michał Borowski, whom the prosecution suspected of corruption. Ultimately, the case was dismissed, and the issue of Adam Michnik's apartments was forgotten. When asked by 'GP,' Michał Borowski claims he remembers nothing. – This case ended as it was supposed to end. It was a very long time ago, these apartments are no longer here, and I remember nothing – Borowski told 'Gazeta Polska'” – reads the article.” https://gpcodziennie.pl/100080-gazetapolskaujawniaaferezmieszkaniamimichnika.html

-- MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE FOR SMOKER EDUCATION AND AID FOR CULTIVATORS: “We need to move towards innovative tobacco products and aim to increase smokers' awareness – assesses Jan Krzysztof Ardanowski, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development. New generation products, safer than traditional cigarettes, can also be an opportunity for Polish tobacco growers. (...) – We need to move towards these types of products, aim to increase smokers' awareness – said Jan Krzysztof Ardanowski, Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, during the Krynica Forum. – I am talking to tobacco producers and I think the best solution would be for them to become owners of a processing plant and run the business themselves, from picking leaves and drying them, to processing and selling semi-finished or final products. Farmers in the entire agri-food processing sector have become solely producers of raw materials, and it's not the raw materials that make money – adds the minister.” https://www.money.pl/gospodarka/wiadomosci/artykul/resort-rolnictwa-za-edukacja-palaczy-pomoze,28,0,2417948.html

-- NORMAN DAVIES ON JAROSŁAW KUISZ'S BOOK FROM KULTURA LIBERALNA, WHICH WILL BE PUBLISHED ON OCTOBER 15: "This is a clear liberal voice, emphasizing the importance of the first generation of free Poles who are not afraid of the specter of defeat.” https://kulturaliberalna.pl/wydawnictwo/zapowiedzi/

-- 13 YEARS AGO, the first round of presidential elections was held. The second round (October 23) featured: Donald Tusk (36.33%) and Lech Kaczyński (33.10%).

-- 7 YEARS AGO, Platforma Obywatelska won the elections to the Sejm and Senate.


Łukasz Mężyk